47% YTD....that is CRAZY TireSmoke. I do like your discussion about steering younger people at your work toward this thread. It is very interesting to hear about the current thinking and the get rich quick mentality. Long term investing is not for everyone. It takes focus and vision to realize how it can impact your life for the better. Human behavior NEVER CHANGES. Look back into ancient history at the stories....."The Grasshopper and The Ant"...."The Little Red Hen".....even "The Tortoise And The Hare".... and many other fables and stories, some thousands of years old.. Through all of history the lesson has been the same and through all of history the average person can NOT resist the lure of emotion based human behavior. BUT......screw that old time garbage.....I want to be an INFLUENCER and get rich immediately. The more things change the more they stay the same....I have seen this same sort of thinking throughout my entire 55+ years of investing.
WOW....I just saw on the business TV that COSTCO is up today by $12.42 or +1.66% today. Looks like classic "buy the rumor sell the news thinking". Wait and see...is this proves true when the earnings come out on Thursday.
Poor APPLE....they are being hit by one thing after another. If I had some money I would be thinking about adding more of this company about now.....even though it appears to be a short to medium term......falling knife. Apple hit with $2 billion EU antitrust fine in Spotify case, will appeal https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-hit-over-1-8-120754643.html
A good medium level GAIN for me today. Based on only two stocks. NVDA and COST. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.90%. A good day for me with all the big averages in the RED.
Sounds about right to me. Bank of America latest firm to see bullish outcome for stocks in 2024 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank...ish-outcome-for-stocks-in-2024-164710274.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Another Wall Street strategy team is out with an optimistic projection on how far stocks will run this year. In a note to clients on Sunday, Bank of America's US equity and quantitive strategy team led by Savita Subramanian boosted its year-end target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to 5,400 from 5,000. This projection along with a recent call from UBS are the most bullish predictions for the benchmark average this year among strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance. "Bull markets end with euphoria — we're not there yet," Subramanian wrote. "Sentiment has improved, but areas of euphoria are limited (AI, GLP-1)." BofA's move is the fifth boosted price target from strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance in the last month. The more optimistic outlooks come as stocks have ripped higher to start the year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) just closed out their best February performances since 2015, supported by a second straight quarter of earnings growth and increased confidence in the trajectory of the US economy. Subramanian noted that fourth quarter earnings grew 4% compared to the year prior, and analysts aren't cutting their forecasts for the current quarter at their normal rate. This comes as Bank of America's economics research team just boosted its outlook for growth this year too. That combination of an increased earnings outlook and a more bullish outlook for the US economy has been a common thread cited in the recent S&P 500 year-end target boosts across Wall Street. Bank of America strategists don't expect the upward trajectory for stocks to be a straight line, though. Subramanian's team noted some type of pullback from currentlevels could be on the horizon. Since 1929, 5% pullbacks in the S&P 500 happen three times a year on average and typically one of those extends to a 10% correction, per Bank of America's research. "We are due after four months with no meaningful drop," Subramanian wrote. The team also highlighted that history shows volatility in stocks will pick up as the 2024 presidential election approaches, but that is usually "followed by a rally" as the uncertainty clears. And when that end-of-year rally comes, Bank of America expects it to be driven by a broader group of equities than the tech stocks currently driving the S&P 500 higher. "We expect leadership to broaden as the gap between earnings growth of the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the S&P 500 begin to narrow," Subramanian wrote. A chart from Bank of America shows earnings from the 493 S&P 500 stocks not included in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks are expected to rebound in the second half of 2024." MY COMMENT Looks like some of these predictions are closing in on mine. From memory I think I was at 5600 or 5700. Either one sounds about right to me considering that we have ten more months to go and we are currently at 5130. A ten percent move by year end will get us there.
Welcome to the real world of capital gains taxes and income taxes Crypto PEOPLE. Tax pros brace for ‘tidal wave’ of crypto tax scrutiny from the IRS. What investors need to know https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/04/tax-pros-brace-for-tidal-wave-of-crypto-tax-scrutiny-from-irs.html
I have now placed orders to BUY ($50,000 each) shares of SMCI....SUPER MICRO.....tomorrow in my accounts and my siblings account. The trade will be funded by taking some of the profits ($50,000 each) from our NVDA shares. NVDA will still the the largest position in all the accounts even after this trade. Now that Super Micro is going to be part of the SP500 they fit my criteria of BIG CAP......barely. Their recent earnings were BLOW OUT good and their guidance was the same. I like how this company is tied to NVDA.....in spirit, the long term relationship the two CEO's and the connection to AI. This little article is a good summary of some of the positives. Why Super Micro Stock’s 20% Plunge Is An AI Investing Opportunity https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterc...-an-ai-investing-opportunity/?sh=46e37f96b77e (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Short selling is a dangerous game now playing out in at least one company riding the tsunami of demand driven by AI chatbots like ChatGPT. The company in question is Super Micro Computer SMCI +18.6% — the San Jose, Calif.-based maker of Generative AI servers and liquid cooling products — whose stock is in the middle of a war between investors betting the stock will plunge and the bulls who have enjoyed the stock’s 768% rise in the year ending February 20, according to Bloomberg. On February 23, the short sellers — 10.58% of Super Micro’s float is sold short, according to the Wall Street Journal — won a skirmish in this battle. That is when Super Micro stock plunged 20%, noted Bloomberg. The reason for the plunge may have been the company’s pricing a $1.5 billion capital raise — that will dilute existing shareholders — to be used for “growth and business expansion,” reported Yahoo! Finance. However, short sellers are going to lose the war. After all, raising capital after a company’s stock reaches an all-time high seems like a good idea — especially if the company has a good use for those funds. Here are three reasons Super Micro stock could rise further: Nvidia buys servers from Super Micro. Super Micro’s liquid cooling products are in demand to cool off the servers that help train and operate large language models. Super Micro’s financial performance and prospects are outstanding. To be fair, short sellers are taking this risky bet for a reason. Super Micro’s stock chart reveals a nearly vertical upward movement since the start of 2024. Short sellers have been fueling the ascension of the company’s shares when brokers require them to buy the stock to cover their underwater bets. What’s more, the 20% fall in Super Micro made short sellers $1.2 billion in profit after they suffered $4.8 billion in losses since February 2023, according to data from S3 Partners featured in a Bloomberg report. As long as Super Micro achieves expectations-beating growth, its business will keep putting those short sellers on edge. Nvidia Buys Servers From Super Micro Nvidia is arguably one of the world’s top performing companies right now. As I wrote last week, Nvidia revenue grew 265% in the most recent quarter while earning a 57% net margin and the AI chip designer forecast 300% growth for the current quarter. So it stands to reason that a supplier to Nvidia would benefit from the chip designer’s success. Super Micro — which collaborated with Nvidia to make AI servers and workstations supporting the chip designer’s H100 GPUs — is the third-largest server provider with 5% market share, according to MoneyControl. Super Micro CEO Charles Liang immigrated to the U.S. from Taiwan as did Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Liang founded Super Micro in 1993 and has been collaborating with Nvidia for more than 30 years, according to CRN. This long-standing partnership bodes well for Super Micro’s future. “Whatever Nvidia develops, we pretty much sync up with them,” Liang told CRN. “And that's another reason why, whenever they have a new product out, we have a new product available quicker than our competitors do,” he added. Super Micro’s Liquid Cooling Products Are In Demand Data centers generate huge amounts of heat. One way to cool them off is to operate air conditioners. A better way to remove the heat is liquid cooling. A leading provider of liquid cooling systems is Vertiv — about which I wrote in December. In 2023, Vertiv was a major beneficiary of data centers’ need to cool off the GPU-laden computing systems used to train and operate LLMs. As Bank of America BAC +2.3% BAC +2.3% analyst Andrew Obin wrote in a June 2023 report, a 10% increase in power use would require “a more than 10% increase in electrical-equipment capacity because of the need for redundant infrastructure to help guard against power failures,” Bloomberg reported. Higher power means more heat generated – creating demand for equipment to cool down the servers to ambient temperature. Vertiv’s liquid cooling systems solved the problem of overheated data centers very effectively. In June 2023, Vertiv was struggling to satisfy demand for its products from data centers processing Generative AI workloads. About a third of Vertiv’s revenue came from hyperscale data-center customers – considerably higher than the single-digit percentages at larger rivals such as Eaton and Schneider, noted Obin. Super Micro also offers liquid cooling systems for data centers. Rosenblatt Securities — which boosted its price target on the company to $1,300 from $700 — expects Super Micro to increase its market share from single digits to “double digits in the next few years with a special emphasis on enterprise solutions,” Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann wrote in a note featured by Bloomberg. “A pivotal factor in Supermicro’s growth trajectory is the adoption of liquid cooling technology, a critical development for overcoming challenges in cloud computing at scale in AI,” he added. Super Micro’s Excellent Performance And Prospects Super Micro — whose stock has soared 195% in 2024 — reported expectations-beating results and raised guidance in its most recent quarter. Here are the key numbers for Super Micro’s quarter ending December 2023: Q1 FY 2024 revenue: $3.66 billion — up 103% from the year before and $860 million more than the FactSet consensus,according to TheStreet.com. Q1 FY 2024 earnings per share: $5.59 — up 71% from the year before and 45 cents per share more than the FactSet consensus, noted TheStreet.com. FY 2024 revenue guidance: $14.5 billion — about 40% more than the previous guidance of $10.5 billion, TheStreet.com reported. Super Micro — 50% of whose revenue comes from AI, noted CRN — was exuberant about the results. “Finally, we are entering an accelerating demand phase now from many more customer wins,” Jiang told investors, according to the earnings call transcript. "Overall, I feel very confident that this AI boom will continue for another many quarters if not many years,” he added. “And together with the related inferencing and other computing eco system requirements, demand can last for even many decades to come, we may call this an AI revolution.” One analyst — Barclays’ George Wang — raised his price target on Super Micro 74% to $691 a share. “AI demand is still outstripping supply,” Wang wrote in a research note featured by TheStreet.com. "Once supply fully normalizes in next quarters, demand pipeline and expanded capacity support $25 billion-$30 billion in revenue over the next 2-3 years, vs. Dec Q annualized run rate of $15 billion," Wang added. He said “a potential heat dissipation upgrade from air to liquid cooling could be another key transformation in data center design, which could benefit Supermicro,” reported TheStreet.com. With Super Micro shares trading about 20% below their peak, the market could be offering investors a good entry point." MY COMMENT Please NOTE.......the stock is no longer at the price it was when this article was published......it is NOW at $1074 per share. I like the symbiotic relationship between this company and NVDA....I also like the relationship between the two CEO's. I am happy to see them become part of the SP500....in a couple of weeks. That should significantly increase the awareness of this company. The financials I have reviewed show significant growth in just about all measures over the past 4-5 years. Hopefully this will lessen some of my current exposure with NVDA being 29% of my portfolio.....and at the same time....keep that money working in the same general business area....AI..... with a chance for this stock to continue to gain at a similar rate to NVDA. This being a LATERAL move with....profits....If it does not work....well.....I am willing to take that risk. I am buying this company as a LONG TERM, BIG CAP, potentially ICONIC, AMERICAN COMPANY,...that is significantly tied to NVDA and NVDA products. They currently pay no dividend. They will become part of the SP500 on March 18, replacing Whirlpool. The poor Whirlpool man will be spinning over this event. DISCLOSURE....like many companies in this sort of tech area.....this is NOT a risk free stock. I am NOT recommending or suggesting that anyone copy this move. I am posting this under my policy of placing all trades or other moves on here in real time. ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURE.....this stock is an AGGRESSIVE investment as is my portfolio. It is a YOUNG GROWTH stock. I will be doubling up on the stock by owning individual shares and shares in my SP500 Index fund.
To continue....I have been trying to find something to invest in that is part of the SP500 for a good length of time now. I nearly went with WMT a month or two ago......but decided not to, at this time. I was hoping to find a stock that was a BIG CAP CONSUMER company to balance out my TECH holdings. I was just not able to find anything over the past six months. So....SMCI....will be "the one" for now and hopefully for the LONG TERM. I am hoping that the stock fulfills its long term promise. I will continue to follow WMT as a possibility some time in the medium term (6-12 months) future.
Some good posts lately, as is usually the case in this thread. Some good individual examples from different long term investors that shows the power of knowing one’s self as an investor. While each one is different in their own way, the common theme is the same….truly knowing and understanding your own plan and being comfortable with it. I continue to roll along as well. Just been too busy with work to post as much as I would like. I still try to check in and read when I find a spare moment. Carry on my fellow investors….carry on.
They usual issues today.....with a little ZINGER from APPLE thrown in just for fun. Stock market today: US futures fall as tech, rate-cut doubts creep in https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-tech-rate-cut-doubts-creep-in-125015736.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stock futures slid on Tuesday, pulling further back from record highs as uncertainty over interest rate cuts and the continued strength of tech stocks brought a note of wariness to the market. S&P 500 (^GSPC) futures slipped 0.3%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) futures were 0.2% lower after a losing start to the week. Contracts on tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) sank 0.6% as a continued retreat in Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) continued to drag on stocks more widely. The debate now is whether the tech gains behind the recent record-setting stock rally have reached their peak, as downbeat news saps the "FOMO" — fear of missing out — seen as keeping investors engaged. In premarket trading, Apple came under pressure after a report that iPhone sales fell 24% in China, adding to Monday's loss in the wake of a $2 billion EU antitrust fine. Tesla continued to slump as a shutdown at its Berlin Gigafactory added to concerns over a shipment slump and a Chinese price war. At the same time, faith in coming easing by the Federal Reserve took a knock after comments by policymaker Raphael Bostic. The Atlanta Fed president said he sees just one rate cut this year, penciled in for the third quarter. Investors are now even more focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress on Wednesday. His words will be closely watched for any change in the mantra that policymakers need to be convinced inflation is conquered before any move. Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) briefly touched $68,000 overnight but has lost ground amid the cautious mood to trade at around $67,130. The biggest cryptocurrency remains within striking distance of a fresh all-time high, which would be above $68,789. In corporates, Target (TGT) earnings beat Wall Street forecasts, helping shares pop 8% in premarket. MY COMMENT The same story-lines continue today.......the rate cuts being up in the air. Also the negativity toward big tech and APPLE and GOOGLE in particular. I dont see much of this as justified.....although APPLE is paying the price for tying the company to China. No doubt the AI TRADING PROGRAMS will have a field day with the headlines today....at least early in the day. You have to LOVE this stuff......a great continuation of the wall of worry that will sustain the bull market.
Not a pretty picture. Apple iPhone sales plunge 24% in China as Huawei smartphone business resurges, report says https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/05/app...-in-china-as-huawei-resurges-report-says.html "Key Points Analyst firm Counterpoint Research said in a note Tuesday that iPhone sales plunged 24% in the period, as Apple faced stiff competition from local smartphone firms. Several rival Chinese smartphone companies also logged drops in their unit sales in the six-week period, but the declines were less pronounced than that of Apple." MY COMMENT This is what happens when you tie your company to the worlds most corrupt and inhumane communist dictatorship. In the end they simply steal your tech and screw you. They are only your friend and business partner till they dont need you any longer. I like this little statement in the article: "Apple is facing a tough environment in its key market, China." You would think that APPLE's "key market" would be the USA. In the end this little snapshot of about 6 weeks of data is basically meaningless....but it makes a good headline.
The markets....due to fear-mongering that is relentless....are under pressure for the open today. The level of 24/7 media and other commentary is at EPIC PROPORTIONS. Over my lifetime there has never been this volume of content.......mostly negative.....on the day to day markets. It is a HUGE stress for many people and investors. What this means for the future is unclear. Probably more business for Index funds and ETF's as individual stocks move more and more toward gambling and the average person just tunes it all out. This "stuff" is mostly focused on the short to medium term.......but it will slowly impact even longer term investing over time.
Well my profit taking sale of a bit of NVDA went through today at $852. My purchase of SMCI went through at $1035. I am happy with those prices. This little trade did NOT lessen my risk at all.....but did allow me to take some profit from NVDA and move the money elsewhere. NVDA is STILL the largest position in my portfolio twice the size of the next largest position....basically 25% of my entire portfolio.
I think I will simply IGNORE the markets today.....just a BS open. BUT...that is how the short term works.
At least I have a little bit of good now at the open....with COSTCO and NVDA UP.....and....my purchase of SMCI flat....so far.
I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 60% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 40% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia Palantir Super Micro Computer MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my ten stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis." #18667
Good news.....I have two stocks UP at this moment.....HD and COST. Everything else is in the RED. I have to say at least today is not irrational. The APPLE news regarding China, the TSLA factory sabotage in Germany, the GOOGLE fiasco with the AI, and more are all weighing on the markets and especially big tech today. All in all.....unless we see some bargain buying later today....means a wasted day in the markets. I had a small amount of money left over from my trades this morning so in one account I bought a single share of APPLE and in my primary account I added 9 shares of PLTR.....just to use up that extra little bit of cash.
A little bit of red so we know we are still mortal. All my stocks are down a touch. I put SMCI and PLTR on my watch list but haven't taken a bite yet. I am still reeling on what actions I want to take. Yesterday was another ATH close. Today could be if we see a little last hour run up.
W I’m riding your tail, as usual, went ahead and dumped 30k into……. NVDA…. Likely for the same reasons that you bought SMCI today, but I just figured heck if I’m investing in crypto - why buy COIN…. Or something like that. It’s a TOTAL trade move for me, I don’t think that NVDA is gonna push much higher, probably another 20-30% so I will clear out of this position if it gets there OR if it goes down 10% from today. Picture PERFECT - it hits 25% gains and I’m clearing out of it and going back into Tesla and apple as planned. But AS A TRADE MOVE, which this clearly IS, the probability of me making 20-30% gains on this purchase in the coming months makes more sense than putting it in Apple/Tsla and waiting for them to mature. I also have NVDA as a long term stock on my long term account of course and that position stays there forever.
Pretty soon we are going to have to change the name of this thread to .......The Long Term Investor & Trader. Now....Zukodany is doing it.....and depending on when you bought today...you may already have a profit.
