The Long Term Investor

I don’t condone or recommend what this headline says……but……this simplified little article is a pretty good basic summary.


“3 Reasons to Buy Nvidia Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/23/3-reasons-to-buy-nvidia-stock-like-theres-no-tomor/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

KEY POINTS

• Nvidia just announced its latest AI processor and continues to stay well ahead of the competition.
• The world's largest cloud infrastructure providers are lining up to get their hands on Nvidia's latest and greatest.
• Nvidia is increasingly supplying "full stack" solutions, which consist not only of its lightning-fast processors but also the software optimized to work with them.

The GPU maker has become synonymous with AI and is taking that technology to the next level.


Any conversation about artificial intelligence (AI) would, of necessity, include Nvidia (NVDA 3.12%). The company pioneered the graphics processing units (GPUs) that underpin many of the world's most advanced AI models and continues to innovate at a breakneck pace.

At the company's GPU Technology Conference (GTC), which kicked off on Sunday in San Jose, California, Nvidia unveiled several startling developments on Monday that suggest the AI revolution is only just beginning. What came out of the conference bolsters the argument for investing in this company. Here are three reasons to buy Nvidia stock like there is no tomorrow.


1. Nvidia unveiled the next "must-have" AI processor

When ChatGPT burst on the scene in late 2022, the race to adopt generative AIwas on. The potential to leverage these next-generation AI models to boost productivity had businesses scrambling to figure out how best to profit from these developments in AI. The processor that enabled these advances was Nvidia's H100 Tensor Core GPU, which could train large language models (LLMs) up to 30 times faster than its previous generation of AI chips. Now, those processors are so last year.

On Monday, Nvidia unveiled the Blackwell platform "to power a new era of computing." The Blackwell B200 Tensor Core GPU is the "world's most powerful chip" for AI, according to CEO Jensen Huang. The processor is packed with 208 billion transistors (up from 80 billion in the H100), delivering five times the performance. The architecture combines two tightly integrated GPUs that act in concert with each other. The Blackwell GPU can scale up to 10 trillionparameters. For context, GPT-3, the LLM behind ChatGPT, had just 175 billionparameters.

Furthermore, the GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchip combines two B200 chips, a Grace CPU, and an NVLink high-speed interconnect, which makes all the parts act in concert. The AI-centric processor offers up to 30 times the performance of its predecessor while reducing energy consumption by up to 25 times.

2. Cloud providers are lining up to buy Nvidia products

Much like Nvidia's previous AI-centric processors, the largest cloud infrastructure providers are lining up to deliver its latest offerings via the cloud.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced it will offer the GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchip, which AWS CEO Adam Selipsky said, "marks a significant step forward in generative AI and GPU computing."

It was also revealed that Microsoft would be "one of the first organizations to bring the power of Nvidia Grace Blackwell GB200" to its Azure Cloud. The company said that Nvidia processors would provide AI predictions to Microsoft Copilot, its generative AI-powered digital assistant. Not to be left out, Alphabet said that the company would adopt the Blackwell platform, with "Grace Blackwell-powered DGX Cloud coming to Google Cloud."

This was just the tip of the iceberg, as Nvidia announced collaborations with several of the biggest names in technology, including Oracle, Dell Technologies, and Meta Platforms, among many others.

3. It's not just about the hardware for Nvidia

Nvidia made a name for itself by creating the processors that power AI, but it isn't stopping there.

The company introduced Nvidia Inference Manager (NIM), a groundbreaking software platform that helps developers streamline the creation and deployment of AI systems. Nvidia will provide pre-built and optimized AI models that businesses can adapt using their first-party data. This way, companies don't need to reinvent the wheel, significantly reducing the amount of time needed to deploy AI. These tools will help smaller companies that don't have the resources of the aforementioned tech giants to adopt and implement AI.

This helps illustrate Nvidia's strategy, which increasingly involves full hardware and software packages to help businesses succeed.”

MY COMMENT

A very simple little article on a very complex topic. But it states the case for long term investment in this stock very clearly.

On the other hand here are a couple of articles from the same source:

Here's 1 Irrefutable Reason Nvidia's Stock Gains Will Slow Dramatically

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/24/heres-1-irrefutable-reason-nvidias-stock-gains-wil/

Cathie Wood Is Sounding the Alarm on Nvidia. Here Are 3 Things Smart Investors Should Know

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/24/cathie-wood-is-sounding-the-alarm-on-nvidia-here/

As usual EVERY investor must make their own analysis and own decision based on their investing strategy and all the other factors that make EVERY investor decision a VERY PERSONAL decision.

 

A CLASSIC post by Tom:

"When is the last time someone you worked with quit because they made enough to retire through trading? I have never seen it once and I've worked for quite a few large companies. I know a ton of people who were "about" to retire and could if they wanted to but were just putting in time, enjoying their career. Those people are still enjoying their career while I spend every day watching cats chase Roombas on YouTube.

And yet, the vast majority of people continue to trade, convinced that they can beat Vegas. "It will work this time! I can feel it!"

I have ALSO.....NEVER.....seen this happen.....although....I have seen a good number of long term investors retire "relatively rich and/or comfortable.

 

I have not checked my account balance all week. I thought I was doing well....but reality....exceeds all my expectations. At the close on March 22, 2024....my entire account is at year to date.....+25.27%. Last Friday it was at +21.86%. That is a BIG SIGNIFICANT gain for one week.

A few weeks ago I sold off $50,000 of NVDA to take some profits and put the funds into SMCI. NVDA had just gotten TOO LARGE of a percentage of my entire account. WELL.....that was a waste of time since.....NOW....it is right back to the same percentage of my account as it was before I sold the $50,000. OH WELL.......when something wants to run I guess I will simply have to LET IT RUN. That is my default investment strategy.....and mindset..... anyway.

 

AND....yes.....I am once again at a new....ALL TIME HIGH.

I will be out of touch till the end of the day this coming THURSDAY. You people did a great job of making me some money while I was out of touch last week......DO IT AGAIN!

This is the definite advantage of being a LONG TERM INVESTOR.....me being out of touch is irrelevant.....my account will simply power forward with or without me being aware of anything.

 

Well I will miss the entire market week next week since it it a short week. The markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday.

I will be out of touch till after the close on Thursday.

 

Having posted about the new NVDA chips and products.....what about SMCI?

‘Load Up, Says Barclays About Super Micro Computer Stock — It’s Poised to Benefit From New Nvidia Products

https://www.tipranks.com/news/barcl...it-poised-to-benefit-from-new-nvidia-products

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Chip industry focus turned to Nvidia’s GTC event this week where the semi giant unveiled its Blackwell GPU architecture, with the platform being able to attain 4x faster training and 30x faster inference vs. Its previous generation H100 chips.

It’s tempting to think a Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) representative was in attendance sending messages back to HQ, as immediately following the reveal, the server and storage systems specialist announced a range of matching AI server products. A host of GPU-optimized SMCI systems will be prepared for the B100, B200 and GB200 designs, with several of the SMCI systems being liquid-cooled.

Getting its products to market at a brisk pace remains SMCI’s core strength, per Barclays analyst George Wang. “We continue to highlight time to market as the strongest moat for SMCI,” the analyst said.

“We think the AI strength is still in an early innings and it is too early to take a cautious view at this point. As NVDA increases the new product launch cadence of now once a year, vs. once every other year in the past, it should structurally increase SMCI’s advantage as SMCI will have a list of matching server products ready immediately and offer design assistance after NVDA/AMD/INTC announce a new silicon product, vs. a much longer development cycle for competitors,” Wang added.

SMCI is also expected to benefit from capturing the increased ASPs (average selling prices) of the new generation silicon and server products. Reports from the supply chain suggest a potential 40% increase in average selling prices for the B100 compared to H100 chips.

Meanwhile, SMCI also announced a 2 million share secondary offering, with Wang reckoning the company could see net proceeds of $2 billion. While shares slipped in the aftermath as they usually do in the wake of stock diluting acts, Wang thinks it was a good idea.

“We view the equity offering as a positive signal despite LSD (low single digit) dilution,” he opined. “SMCI is expected to use the net proceeds for working capital and inventory needs as well as R&D, likely preparing for substantial orders from hyperscale CSPs in coming months, in our view.”

All in, Wang rates SMCI shares an Overweight (i.e., Buy), to go alongside a $961 price target. However, the analyst should consider revising this target upward, as it currently implies that shares will remain flat from their current levels. (To watch Wang’s track record,click here)

The Street’s average target is a touch higher, and at $983 factors in one-year returns of a modest 1.5%. Rating wise, based on a mix of 6 Buys and 3 Holds, the analyst consensus rates the stock a Moderate Buy. (See SMCI stock forecast)"

MY COMMENT

I certainly have ZERO plans to add additional shares of this stock. (I put $50,000 into the company a few weeks back as mentioned in this thread)

It is a new holding and an aggressive buy. So....I need to just sit and follow it for a while and get a feel for how it is going to perform. SO.....I am not a proponent of "load up the wagon".

But....I like all the above info.

I was not a big fan of the recent share offering....but...with this being a young company in relative terms......and "IF"......they use this new money to fund inventory and as working capital.....I am all in on the sale of additional shares. I am OK with a company investing in themselves and their capacity to produce product.

I continue to be drawn to this company based on the very close symbiotic relationship that they seem to have had with NVDA for a very long time. They sure know how to jump on the bandwagon very quickly.....when NVDA announces new products.

 

A quickie post today before I have to go to the airport to pick up one of my kids who is flying in today with their family.

Looks like the market predicting ......experts....have now caught up with my year end prediction.

Wall Street just gave its highest year-end forecast yet for the S&P 500

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall...nd-forecast-yet-for-the-sp-500-133821680.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wall Street has a new high water mark for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus now sees the benchmark index ending the year at 5,500, reflecting a roughly 5% increase from Friday's close. The call comes after a surge in stocks pushed the benchmark index past his initial target of 5,200 less than three months into the year.

Stoltzfus entered the year looking for one or two interest rate cuts, and to him, little has changed in that storyline since December, as the Federal Reserve recently projected three interest rate cuts this year with a bias leaning toward the possibility of two cuts. He noted positive signs in earnings over the last several quarters, resilience in US economic growth, and a "capitulation" among the bearish community all support his upgrade to the S&P 500's performance.

"All of the above prompts us to increase our year-end price target acknowledging the possibility that we might need to raise the target price again later this year should this economic and market outlook prove us too conservative in our projections," Stoltzfus wrote.

Other analysts have recently raised their targets for the benchmark index. Earlier this month, Bank of America predicted the S&P would end the year at 5,400, matching a previous call from UBS.

While stocks' run higher has raised questions of whether the market is in a bubble, strategists have countered that the underlying dynamics of the current rally don't indicate this is the case so far.

"We’re not saying that there [are] not some fast players on the move in the day-to-day and week-to-week action or deny that some froth exists in some corners of the market but rather that the hot market stuff thus far looks to have been offset by a broadening of the current rally across sectors, styles, and market capitalizations," Stoltzfus said."

MY COMMENT

What a shocking prediction.....a rise in the SP500 by 5% over the next NINE months. BIG WOW.

Typical expert prediction......made after the SP500 has outperformed just about ALL the so called experts this year.....and is now within 5% of 5500. Of course at the first sign of weakness or a little correction they will back off and go hide in their hole till all is obviously clear again.

You have got to love the experts and their predictions.

 

Thank goodness:

Boeing CEO to step down in broad management shake-up as 737 Max crisis weighs on aerospace giant

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/25/boeing-ceo-board-chair-commercial-head-out-737-max-crisis.html

MY COMMENT

I will not buy Boeing anyway.....but.....it is about time. Management of this company has been TOTALLY INCOMPETENT......ever since the company left Seattle. BUT.....I still have little hope that anything will actually change.

 

OK....last quick post. I ended in the green today with a small gain thanks to NVDA, AMZN, PLTR, and SMCI. I also beat the SP500 by 0.48% today.

OK PEOPLE......I want to see some new money in my accounts tomorrow by the close......SHOW ME THE MONEY.

Why not.....there is nothing going on this week so let the positive market bias do its work. I heard this morning that there is....STILL.....$6TRILLION dollars......sitting on the sidelines. At some point that money is going to POUR into the markets. It will be GLORIOUS for those of us that have been in all along. BUT....even without it.....it has been an AMAZING RUN so far this year.

AND....actually....I hope that money stays on the sidelines for a long, long, time. That will mean that the great BULL MARKET has a long way to go.