So, new batts... How is Tesla going to remove $10K of cost from the Model 2? They will do it $1 at a time. In the case of these new batteries, Tesla might consider passive pack cooling and slower charging. 30 minute passive charging appears to be easily possible. Thermal runaway will be a concern, so they will be conservative, but I suspect this will be a thing. The model 2 could have 50KWh with no octovalve heat pump. They could still achieve 500km range quite easily. Suddenly, they will save $6000 and can potentially increase speed toward 20m charging with an OTA update, as they learn how to manage these new batteries. Of course, charge speed will have to vary with charge levels and ambient temperature. This is an exciting breakthrough, to say the least.
I'm following the early construction of the Shanghai energy plant and have a couple of thoughts. First, they clearly plan to massively scale the energy division because it is going to be a significant size plant built right beside CATL. Second, they may also be constrained on SuperCharger output. It we could make sense, since every iteration creates an expectation of network wide upgrade. They have 50+K SuperChargers to upgrade. The v4 upgrade is needed, network wide, because of multi brand access. Perhaps nth is will be the last iteration requiring network wide access? Although, every upgrade seemed like the last one that will require network wide roll out. There is always some reason to update the network.
If you are looking for a buy signal, I can help. Both Morgan Stanley and analyst Adam Jonas rate Tesla a sell. It simply cannot get any more clear than that.
I keep watching Tesla, thinking I'm going to start trading it due to good luck in predicting the last several cycles. Of course, I continue to do nothing. TLDR -> I believe Tesla is an excellent short term trade and it will be over $200 in the next month, or so. The quarter results will surprise everyone by being OK. Even if Q1 is a bit soft, deliveries are stable and they are literally out performing every other auto manufacturer on the planet. There are a couple of exciting developments that should become public soon. Tesla's battery platform appears to finally be where it needs to be. Cybertruck shipments far outstrip what the media is reporting. All you have to do is look at Giga Texas parking lot to see media reports are moronic. I think most analysts don't have an Internet connection. The thing to watch for is how active Elon is during the Q1 call. We knew Elon would become a liability at some point in the future. That day is not here, IMO, but is approaching. I suspect Elon will step aside sooner than most people expect (in the next couple of years). When that happens, the stock will take a big hit and then should return stronger than ever, thus creating another big trade opportunity.
TSLA trying to move up from a tweezer bottom, lows at ~160 in March and April. Currently ~170. See if it can close this month above the 50 sma.
Reuters has just revealed they are among the greasiest, least honest, "news" media in the business. https://www.reuters.com/business/au...mid-fierce-chinese-ev-competition-2024-04-05/ If you dig into this article, you will find the content is diametrically opposed to the headline. They detail how the cheap car is still on track but will be used for a robotaxi network, not as a retail product. “Reuters is lying (again),” - Elon Musk https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-...-at-Reuters-for-Lies-Over-Inexpensive-EV.html
Tesla is currently trading well down at $157. This is confounding. I see two factors. It has become apparent the Chinese government is massively incentivizing their EV industry, specifically BYD, to develop cars for sale outside of China. There are reports of direct payments to BYD for every car exported. I'm not confident the market is smart enough to consider this when trading Tesla. Only a few care about these type of factors but it is a clear headwind for the first real EV company. The other factor that is most likely hammering the price is the 10% global staff reduction memo. Perhaps this is being viewed as a low demand indicator? We know demand is a bit soft so perhaps people consider this a big deal. I do not and I'm starting to see this as a buy opportunity.
My neighbour just got a new EV, its a VW. This is the second VW EV on my street. Just an observation.
We all knew that TSLA would not be the dominant EV player for ever. The big rise in shares to the highs was their first mover advantage. Now IMO we are entering the next phase which is lower sales, increased competition, lower margins and possible eventual shift in business strategy. I had two neighbors get EV cars this month, one is a VW, the other is that Vietnamese one. Buying your first EV is not longer automatically a Tesla. I expect to see $100-$125, but don't get them out, they have batteries, solar cells, robotics, AI and self-driving. There will be a shift of focus somewhere along the line.
That stagnation a while ago and lack of substantive news indicating exactly what you stated is why I decided to sell my shares. It was only a matter of time before the other companies got their heads out of their butts and challenged Tesla. I see a lot of that going forward, as you have indicated with neighborhood sales. That and the Cybertruck is so effing ugly to see on the road, if I did not sell before, I would now just on principle If/when Tesla pivots into something more lucrative and shows a good track record of it, I will consider investing again, but right now, I am seeing nothing to entice me back.
Well, not *ALL* of us. BTW, I had a long-term buy order in at $138 and got a partial fill. Sadly, it expired without completely filling.
Don't forget to mention that big auto is going to produce millions of EVs and put Tesla out of business. lol! As for Cybertruck, I do not believe it will be a successful, long term product. Imagine the money Tesla will make if they license AutoPilot to a major automaker. I will guess Ford but we won't know unless discussions bear fruit and become public.
Cybertruck is a niche product. We have a lot of friends and family in California who think its the good stuff. At one point, they will sell their traditional trucks and get a cybertruck to haul their toys. Right now, they couldn't do that if they wanted to. I'm a big Tesla fan and like electric vehicles a lot. We need a gas vehicle for travel, so we got one. But, my truck could easily be an EV. My Ford F350/DRW costs $275 to fill with diesel from empty. My Sierra 1500 is closer to $150 for gas. I have zero intention of buying a Cybertruck at any point in the future. Maybe if appealing toppers and service box options become available, it might change my mind? I wouldn't run a bare ICE pickup, either. Point being, Cybertruck seems niche to me. It may well be successful in its niche and a compelling product but its no traditional pickup killer. That isnt just because of the politics of EV. It doesn't fill the same niche. I will say I really like the idea of an unpainted vehicle. I believe, long term, the idea will fail. But, I'm glad someone is trying it. Paint is a massive amount of trouble, cost, time, and manufacturing space. Honda rolled in with a unibody truck. Somebody, somewhere, are probably using a Ridgeline in a business capacity but I've never seen one.
There the action! Elon talking about how every car out there can get an update pushed and become self driving. Its getting some attention
Why are people freaking out about Tesla's new strategy of slowed SuperCharger expansion and reducing cost by eliminating staff and a very small handful of extremely expensive stations in New York? This is exactly what every business should be doing: remove cost I'm going to hang in there for a while longer with my current tranche.
