NVDA - Nvidia Corporation

For you NVDA followers....

 

This.

I expect the gap to narrow. AMD has a huge step coming online by end of year. Nvidia will then widen the gap with their next step but I don't think it will be as wide as it is now.

I believe the nuance here is the idea of "good enough". Rumors are floating around that Microsoft will move Copilot local on machines with 40 TOPS. For this use case, assuming the rumor is remotely accurate and/or true, that will make Intel's NPU useless, AMD will have the middle ground, and Nvidia will have the top end with dedecated AI coprocessing.

Of course, Copilot is niche at this time. Also, we don't know that AMD will achieve 40 TOPS. And then there is the idea that Intel could pull a rabbit out of a hat and achieve this. I have no doubt Intel could gaslight their performance and get Microsoft to certify their NPU, as long as they get reasonably close.

I have no idea about other applications.

We are looking at initial adoption. If AI follows the typical path, there will be a burst of interest followed by diminished demand followed by AI being a must-have for everybody creating a massive upgrade cycle.

AMD's chiplet design appears brilliantly poised for the next generation compute ecosystem. Intel's monolithic designs are not looking all that viable, to be honest. (more drivel in the next post)

 

I hope this post doesn't offend anyone. It is not intended to insult with it's simplicity.

Why are chiplets better than monolithic dies? Chiplets add complexity, cost, and failure modes. It seems like monolithic would be superior?

Any silicon wafer has a few inclusions. These are electron microscopic blemishes which render the part at that random location unusable.

If we know that a wafer averages 5 inclusions (I've heard the average is closer to 7 but don't have any data on this):

- we would have a yield of 0% if we tried to lithograph a single part that consumes the entire wafer.
- we would average a yield of 95% for wafers with 100 dies
- we would average 99.5% for wavers with 1000 dies

While it's not this simple, it is almost this simple.

For this and other reasons, smaller dies provide better yield.

Process shrink helps. Adding stuff like NPU to the part hurts.

Intel will be producing their largest die yet on a brand new, more expensive, process. If there are any yield difficulties at all, Intel will be hurt more than AMD would be, on that same process. So, they will be paying more for what are likely to be lower yields. AMD will be paying less for known excellent yields. Intel is stretching to compete so they are all but forced to sign up for the new process.

If everything goes well, Intel will be fine. For some reason, Intel continues to have a lot of street cred. Particularly in servers, they continue to dominate due exclusively to franchise value but that franchise value is diminishing.

 

A quick clarification.

Intel uses chiplets and will continue to do so. What I have written above is misleading.

As I understand it, Intel does not subdivide their CPUs. They cannot take a pair of 8 core dies and glue them together for a 16 core CPU complex.

Further, the leaks I've seen (and mostly trust) show the NPU will share a die with CPU on Arrow Lake.

Where the chiplets come in (Intel calls them "Foveros") is primarily for the GPU. In fact, current generation Intel chips are built on the Intel 4 with integrated graphics built with TSMC's N3E process node.

 

The corporate salesmanship and the fanbois do not seem connected to the production realities of Nvidia. To a significant extent, Nvidia has been pumped up like Tesla.

 

$NVDA closed the week at $886.45.

It sounds like the next gen GPU will be released at the end of June. That will surely boy the stock. I doubt it will make a significant difference for the company and bottom line but people love halo products, particularly if they can use them to play Halo.

 

The 5090 will be a total beast. It will sell out on day one, though it'll be way too rich for my blood for sure.

 

If you have a few billion burning a hole in your pocket you should go all in BITFARMS bitcoin is a much stronger play then Nvidia I think though of course its a penny stock and not a semi conductor stock. But holding 830 bitcoin is a smart move as bitcoin rises and is becoming more scarce. I really dont know when a good time would be to liquidate BTC though perhaps when they hope for the 140,000 a bitcoin metric but by that time they will probably hold 100,000 or more bitcoin probably if they keep there same growth projections.

 

As someone who opposes the very nature of Bitcoin, I'll take a hard pass. I'm an investor not a trader or speculator.

 

Im curious as I don't know what that is. What do you believe the very nature of crypto to be Im curious would you bet to be as bold to say its crime?

 

An absolute drain on resources for a completely made up asset with no intrinsic value. It's a single step up from NFTs.
I put my money into entities that produce actual product with actual intrinsic value.

 

I was hoping you would describe " The very nature of it " and well its factually the creation of wealth or currency which in some cases are unregulated and while TESLA produces cars if you invest in ELON and that is TESLA right for instance your investing in a person that you may or may not know holds a great deal of what you might so adamently say is pointless the creation of wealth or currency itself.

So you have to be rather educated in who you give your money to. You know what they say it takes money to make money and its much harder to make money with bricks and mortar ideas than it is with crypto.

I think either probably has there more interesting points.

So would you agree that GM has had that same 50 billion for what 100 years now and is so successful its made absolutely nothing?

 

You do you, buddy. I'll take decades of scientific proof over nonsensical Cypto Bro talking points any day of the week. Peace.

 

也許你會估計10萬中國人的身家 - Like maybe a bag of oranges perhaps. Or stick of gum.