The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    NOTHING....at all....going on today. Some earnings still coming in.....and....the usual FED morons are out there in force spouting their usual contradictory "stuff". So the markets are just floating along.

    Stock market today: Tech drags stocks lower as rally hits pause

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ocks-lower-as-rally-hits-pause-121113587.html

    it is not that it is a bad market...it is just a no energy, listless, market today. It is going to take a while to see which side of the divide the markets are going to settle into today......red or green.

    Or...... it could end up like yesterday with a.....back alley market knife fight.....where stocks went up and down all day long,.....small waves of selling, followed by small waves of buying, followed by small waves of sellers, followed by small waves of buyers,.....and on, and on, all day.

    In the end yesterday it was all pretty meaningless....with a pretty flat close.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    When NOTHING is going on I usually take a look at the Ten Year Treasury Yield. Today it is up slightly but it is down form the recent highs. At this moment it is at 4.488%.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    WELL...that did not take long. I was able to skim through al my normal material in record time. NOTHING is going on today in the news, the media, or anywhere. It is a DEAD media day today.

    So, I will turn to this little article.....for some discussion.

    Op-ed: Investing lessons from a baseball card collector. Diversify to find the all-stars

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/08/op-ed-investing-lessons-from-baseball-cards.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • No one — not even professional investors, with all the resources behind them — knows for sure how any individual stock will perform going forward.
    • There are ways to mitigate the risk of striking out with any one individual stock: Buy many stocks or even the whole stock market.
    • It’s the same idea as buying whole sets of baseball cards to get that one future All-Star.
    When I was a kid, I collected baseball cards with the money I earned from mowing lawns. It was fun to open a pack of cards not knowing which ones you’d get. I sometimes bought a bunch of cards of a particular rookie, in hopes he would one day become an All-Star. Most of the time, however, I ended up striking out. I learned the only way to make sure that you owned a future star was to diversify by buying every card in the set.

    There are parallels to investing.

    Many folks try to find the next Amazon or Nvidia. But let’s face it, no one — not even professional investors, with all the resources behind them — knows for sure how any individual stock will perform going forward.

    But there are ways to mitigate the risk of striking out with any one individual stock — buy many stocks or even the whole stock market. It’s the same idea as buying whole sets of baseball cards to get that one future All-Star. Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, used a different analogy to convey the same idea: “Don’t try to find the needle, buy the haystack.”

    By haystack, he was talking about buying the entire stock market through a broad-based index fund instead of trying to find those few winning individual stocks. However, some may argue that just a handful of stocks have a disproportionate weighting in the index, so a U.S. equity index fund may not be as diversified as you may think.

    The roster of stars keeps changing

    Over the years, pundits have come up with interesting names to describe the largest or most-coveted stocks, such as the Nifty Fifty, FAANG and the Magnificent Seven. The latter, as of year-end 2023, were the most valuable U.S. companies, making up more than a quarter of the S&P 500 Index’s market capitalization. True, some of today’s winners will end up being tomorrow’s losers, but many will continue to become tomorrow’s winners as well. And some modest-size stocks will grow into behemoths.

    For example, Apple, Microsoft and Google were among the five largest U.S. stocks in March 2014 and they remain so 10 years later. Exxon Mobil and Berkshire Hathawayrounded out the top five in March 2014, but were replaced by Amazon and Nvidia. Back then, Amazon was worth roughly $150 billion, while Nvidia was valued at a relatively modest $10 billion. Both stocks were included in broadly diversified U.S. stock indexes in 2014 and grew into top-five stocks today.

    Diversify within each asset class. As mentioned, the easiest means of diversification is through a broad-based index fund or ETF. However, you do not have to stick strictly with index funds. If you go with actively managed funds to complement a core holding of index funds, make sure that your collective portfolio is adequately diversified and keep your costs like expense ratios and other fees low.

    Diversify across asset classes. Diversifying across equities, bonds and cash further reduces risk. Make sure your allocation is appropriate for your time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals.

    Diversify across time. In most cases, investing in a lump sum leads to higher returns. On the other hand, while dollar-cost averaging — regularly investing a fixed amount over time — doesn’t guarantee a profit or protect against a market downturn, it does mitigate the risk of bad market timing. And if you set it up as automated investments, it has the added benefit of being a set-it-and-forget-it approach. As time passes, regularly revisit your plan to make sure it still matches your current circumstances. Life happens, things change and so can your target allocation.

    I’ll state the obvious: All investing is subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss; and no particular asset allocation can guarantee you will meet your goals.

    That said, if you diversify, you’ll have some share of the potential All-Stars in your investment lineup."

    MY COMMENT

    I have a few opinions on this topic. YES....for many if not most investors a broad Index ETF like the SP500 is just fine. It provides everything you need......good exposure to the BIG CAP tech companies and good broad exposure to the greatest companies in the world.

    As to bonds and cash. Number one.....I do not have short term money in the markets......like cash. I dont consider that diversification. It is simply short term....so....not suited for the risk involved in stocks and funds. As to bonds....I own ZERO bonds. I see no reason to own bonds. I have NEVER owned any bonds except for the extreme interest zero coupon 30 yeear treasuries that I bought in the mid 1980's....which were paying stock market like returns of 11% to 13%. I also dont believe that the average investor has any need or reason to own bonds.

    As to diversifying across time by dollar cost averaging.....as the article states, in most cases investing a lump sum leads to better returns. of course I do this since....it is PROBABILITY. BUT.....this is not really a good option for most people. Most people probably tend to dollar cost average by investing a set amount out of their pay each month or at set times. The main thing is that they are investing.

    NOW...the real thing raised by this little article.....the statement that most investors are trying to find the next big thing....the next AMZN or the next NVDA.

    This is certainly NOT what I try to do. This usually ends up as just FLAILING AROUND. I find it much easier to ....invest in the PROVEN BIG NAMES....the companies that are the top of the line.....and hold them for the long term.

    The last thing I do is sit around trying to find the next big thing to invest in. I like to let the markets find those companies for me and than get invested in the few that look like they will have long term staying power.....early in their business life,.....BUT.....after there are good indicators that boost the odds of picking company that will grow and have success for he long term.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    I like how the day is settling in.....I have a good number of positive holdings....CMG, PLTR, SMCI, NVDA, and MSFT. of course I also have a good number of negative holdings right now. I do like the direction we are seeing the market so far today.

    CLIMBING that big old wall of worry.....without a net. Well actually....the long term and market PROBABILITIES.....are my net.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    OK....as I have been siting and finding nothing of interest to talk about today....the DOW and the SP500 have turned green. PLUS....the NASDAQ is very close to green. A nice turn form the red of the early market day.

    NOW....we need to build some momentum for the day.

    I will simply sit and ignore the markets and let them do the hard work for me.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    The current reality in the world of big business.

    Stock buybacks hit highest level since 2018

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-buybacks-hit-highest-level-since-2018-080010937.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stock buybacks are soaring in a sign that corporate America is bullish on the US economy.

    Companies have announced share repurchases of more than $383 billion in the last 13 weeks, up 30% from the year-earlier period and the largest sum since June 2018, per research from Deutsche Bank. The total includes Apple's $110 billion plan, the largest buyback in history.

    The equity strategy team at Deutsche Bank notes that the "boom" in buybacks extends beyond the big names like Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), which just announced a $70 billion buyback plan. Of the $262 billion in buybacks reported in first quarter earnings season, $82 billion has come from companies outside the large tech giants.

    This is a welcome sign for those looking for a broadening out of the stock market rally.

    "Buybacks have been the biggest driver of equities over time in the medium term," Deutsche Bank chief equity strategist Binky Chadha told Yahoo Finance ahead of the start of first quarter earnings reports.

    To Chadha, the importance of buybacks is simple: They tell investors how companies feel about the macro environment.

    Buybacks typically rise when earnings rise, Chadha said. This is because as earnings rise, which is currently happening at its fastest pace in nearly two years, cash flow at companies increases. Companies can then use this cash flow to increase dividends paid to shareholders, increase capital expenditures to invest back in the company, or repurchase stock, and, in turn, return capital to shareholders.

    This trend failed to materialize in 2023. Earnings picked up, but buybacks didn't. Chadha reasoned this likely had to do with the overwhelming majority projecting a recession to hit the US economy.

    "When macro consensus is for a severe slowdown, or recession, companies aren't going to do buybacks," Chadha said. "They're going to hold on to their cash."

    But that macro consensus has shifted. Economists and macro strategists are feeling more optimistic about economic growth for the US this year. Corporations are confirming that confidence with buybacks.

    "What you saw in [fourth quarter] earnings reporting earlier this year is that buybacks really started to move back up," Chadha said. "So I'd say that this cloud of a cyclical overhang is lifting. Corporates are getting more comfortable with the outlook."

    JPMorgan Private Bank global investment strategist Elyse Ausenbaugh noted that the tick-up in buybacks provides a "nice foundation for investors" as companies buying back their stock helps support the market even if individual equity investors aren't pouring money into stocks.

    And taken one step further, Ausenbaugh sees buybacks as just part of the case building in first quarter earnings that companies are seeing higher cash flows and using them in ways that should eventually benefit shareholders, like boosted capital expenditures for Big Tech companies.

    [Boosted capex is] going to continue to power these trends that have offered a lot of support for the market, like AI," Ausenbaugh told Yahoo Finance."

    MY COMMENT

    What a HUGE waste of corporate money. I would much rather see companies do what the article mentions:

    "Companies can then use this cash flow to increase dividends paid to shareholders, increase capital expenditures to invest back in the company,....."

    Pay a dividend to your investors....number one. Most of them will simply reinvest those funds back into the company by buying additional shares. Let the sharehlders be the one to buy the stock.

    Use the cash to acquire other businesses and corporate assets, capital expenditures. Hold onto the cash as a hoard for future company growth.

    BUT....wasting the money buying back your own shares is a JOKE. This is NOT a benefit to shareholders...at best it is simply a CEO pay hike scheme. Spend you time growing and building the business....that is how you create shareholder value.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    STILL...ignoring the markets today....BORING.

    Although I did check my account for the first time today. I currently have three stocks UP.....CMG, MSFT, and SMCI.

    A very irrelevant and drifting day today. It will be totally invisible when looking at a long term chart.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    The ego-maniac....PR HOUNDS...are out running around this week. What have we had....3 or 4 FED people out talking to the media in a single week. This is totally out of control.

    Collins becomes latest Fed official to warn rates will likely stay higher for longer

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coll...-likely-stay-higher-for-longer-154507285.html

    Fed's Collins says economy may need to weaken to get 2% inflation

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-collins-says-economy-may-154822377.html

    NO COMMENT....on this IDIOCY.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
  10. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    3,305
    Is that good news or bad news for PLTR investors? Seems she's been wildly wrong a lot lately.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    LOL.....T0rm3nted.....I was thinking similar when I posted that. With her and her crazy trading I am not sure that is a good thing at all.

    I am often critical of her and her trading on here....so I am not sure...I want to be in the same boat with her.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    Well another listless day with a mild loss for me. I had four stocks up today....PLTR, SMCI, MSFT and AAPL. The rest were down....but the loss in NVDA was very small so that held down my loss today. I also lost to the SP500 today by 0.33%.

    Another day of treading water for me and the markets. I am sure everyone is EAGERLY waiting for NVDA on May 22. As usual the FED was no help at all today.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    The market today....nothing remarkable.

    Stock market today: Dow extends winning streak to 6 days

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...tends-winning-streak-to-6-days-121113679.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks were a mixed bag on Wednesday as investors tried to read the rate-cut runes and weighed a fresh batch of earnings reports for insight into the chance of a corporate America-spurred revival.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.5%, or nearly 200 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed roughly flat on the day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) edged down about 0.1%. The Dow has now risen for six straight trading sessions and is back above 39,000.

    While stocks have notched a string of gains in recent days, the rally lost some steam Tuesday as Federal Reserve policymaker Neel Kashkari signaled that rates are likely to stay at historic highs for a while. Boston Fed President Susan Collins furthered this notion on Wednesday, saying it will take longer "than previously thought" to bring inflation down.

    Uncertainty about corporate earnings also gave some investors pause as the season entered its final stretch. While techs have mainly delivered on high expectations, the focus is now on whether other sectors can match up.

    On Wednesday's docket, Uber's (UBER) forecast for a key bookings metric missed the mark, dragging its shares down almost 6%. Shopify (SHOP) shares plunged nearly 19% after the e-commerce platform forecast its slowest quarterly revenue growth in two years.

    In after hours, quarterly updates from AMC Entertainment (AMC) and Robinhood (HOOD) will be watched for signs of a meme stock-like surge."

    MY COMMENT

    "F".....the FED. They continue to intentionally trash the markets on a nearly daily basis.....especially during earnings. This is NOT random chance.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
  15. Neil Allen

    Neil Allen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2017
    Messages:
    872
    Likes Received:
    199
    FPAY: posted here last week at $1.05; up in AH at $1.19. Earnings tomorrow 5/9.

    [​IMG]
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    I like this little article.

    Strong Earnings: Just Another Reason to Buy AI Stocks
    Up-and-coming AI stocks are making their investors some real money

    https://investorplace.com/hypergrow...arnings-just-another-reason-to-buy-ai-stocks/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    "Key Takeaways:

    • Across the board, we are seeing companies use AI to drive meaningfully positive financial results.
    • Companies are reporting that sales rose 4% year-over-year this quarter, the best revenue growth rate in more than a year.
    • Corporate operating profit margins – which have been under pressure due to inflation for the past two-plus years – are expected to soar to all-time highs over the next few quarters.

    As if we needed another excuse to buy Wall Street’s best performers on Wall Street – AI stocks… This earnings season has brought with it an abundance of insanely strong quarterly reports.

    Pretty much every major company in the world has reported quarterly numbers over the past month. Most have been smashing estimates. In fact, about 80% of companies that have reported earnings so far have topped expectations. And those earnings are also up by more than 5% versus last year, which is the best earnings growth rate companies have reported since 2022 – before sky-high inflation derailed the post-COVID economic recovery.

    Just as important, most companies are also sounding optimistic about the business environment going forward as well.

    This earnings season has been spectacular.


    What’s driving these fabulous results? Artificial intelligence.

    AI Is Driving Real Results

    Across the board, we are seeing companies use AI to drive meaningfully positive financial results.

    Firms like Microsoft (MSFT), Palantir (PLTR), and Alphabet (GOOGL) have shared that their new AI products and services are seeing exceptional demand. And that’s leading to accelerating revenue growth for those firms.


    And fun fact: Companies are reporting that sales rose 4% year-over-year this quarter, the best revenue growth rate in more than a year.

    Not to mention, we’re also hearing that companies like Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are more extensively using AI to unlock efficiencies in day-to-day operations through things like task automation. As a result, profit margins at these firms are soaring.

    And here’s another fun fact for you: Corporate operating profit margins – which have been under pressure due to inflation for the past two-plus years – are expected to soar to all-time highs over the next few quarters.

    [​IMG]
    In other words, thanks to the AI Boom, companies across America are seeing accelerating revenue growth with expanding profit margins. And of course, sets the stage for explosive profit growth.

    As go profits, so go stocks.

    It should be no surprise, then, that stocks have been roaring back to life over the past few weeks. In fact, the stock market is currently on its biggest three-day winning streak of the year.

    Earnings are rising. That means stocks should, too.

    And this growth will be particularly pronounced for AI stocks.

    The Proof Is in the Earnings Results

    Consider this. Just last night, AI software provider Palantir reported that, due to supercharged demand for its newly launched Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), its revenues rose more than 20% in this latest quarter. Operating profits jumped by more than 80%.

    On the same night, AI robotics solutions developer Symbotic (SYM) reported almost 60% revenue growth on the back of surging demand for its novel AI-powered warehouse robotics system. EBITDA jumped almost 300%.

    These companies are on fire right now. And so are their stocks.

    Over the past year or so, Palantir stock has jumped from $6 to over $20. Symbotic stock has climbed from $10 to almost $50.

    These up-and-coming AI stocks are making their investors some real money.

    The Final Word on Quarterly Earnings

    This recent batch of quarterly earnings reports adds a new level of confirmation that the AI Boom is the real deal.

    Companies are investing everything they have to build out AI products and services. This relentless AI spending frenzy will create huge demand for the companies that create the best of the best.

    Palantir is one such company. Symbotic is another.

    But they are far from alone.

    There are dozens upon dozens of up-and-coming AI stocks that should continue to win big as the AI Boom gains momentum over the coming months and years.

    If you’re serious about making money on Wall Street, you’ve got to be invested in those AI stocks – else, you’ll risk getting left behind.

    We’ve already scored some huge winners in the Age of AI, but we think the best is yet to come. "

    MY COMMENT

    Some strong opinions above....but...I tend to agree with them. I belie ve that most of the above is actually....TRUTH.

    We have seen the markets....as usual....not-pick the earnings. BUT....the truth is that earnings have been very good. the companies being punished...usually for guidance.....are booming.

    Now....if you dont own the companies mentioned above.....I dont know if I would run out and buy all of them. But I would certainly do some serious thinking about what companies i think are going to lead the way in AI and if I wanted to invest in them.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    I also strongly like this little article.

    Six Reasons This Bull Market Is Alive and Well

    https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/six-reasons-this-bull-market-is-alive-and-well/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.”

    -Dr. Seuss

    2024 came out swinging, with the S&P 500 up more than 10% in the first quarter on the heels of adding more than 11% in the fourth quarter of ’23. Back-to-back double-digit quarters are quite rare, but the good news is they tend to happen in bull markets, something we’ve been saying we are in for a long time.

    April is usually a bullish month, but it saw the S&P 500 fall 4.2%, which included a well-deserved 5.5% mild correction mid-month. The economy remains on firm footing, but there are potential cracks forming. What could be next for stocks? We’ve been overweight equities since December ’22 and remain there today, as we expect to see stocks move to new highs this summer and the bull market to continue.

    Here are six reasons we think the bull market is alive and well.

    Big Starts to a Year Are Bullish

    Listen, after a five-month win streak we were probably due for at least a pause. We also saw some of the same bears who mocked us last year for being bullish turn into bulls themselves. With that kind of setup, it makes sense that some type of volatility was necessary to shake the tree. Even though the S&P 500 pulled back just over 5%, many of the former highfliers saw much larger corrections.

    As for the big start, we looked at other years that gained double digits in the first quarter and stocks were higher the rest of the year (so the final nine months) 10 out of 11 years. Yes, 1987 was the one year it was negative, but stocks were up 40% for the year in August back then, so we don’t see that repeating. The average return is skewed due to 1987, but the median return the rest of the year is a solid 8.2%, better than the median return for all years. Bottom line, a big start to a year shouldn’t be a reason to become bearish. In fact, historically it signals likely additional strength.

    [​IMG]

    This Bull Market Is Still Young

    The current bull market started in October ’22, which means it is now just under 19 months old. Would you believe that if the bull ended here and now this would make it the shortest bull market ever? That’s right, most bull markets last much longer, with the past 12 bull markets averaging more than five years in total. Taking this a step further, many bull markets started in the “bear market killer” month of October (this one included), and we found that those bull markets lasted even longer.

    [​IMG]

    The current bull market is up more than 40%, which might feel like a lot, but looking at the four bull markets since 1990 shows they all at least doubled. The bottom line is history tells us to be open to a much longer bull market and potentially large gains along the way.

    Stocks Like a President Up for Re-election

    We noted in our Outlook 2024 that the past 10 times a President was up for re-election stocks finished the year higher. It was election years with a lame duck President where things didn’t go as well.

    [​IMG]

    Taking this a step further, a surprise summer rally is normal when the President is up for re-election. This chart does a nice job of showing how strength the rest of this year is likely with a president up for re-election, while trouble brews when the President is a lame duck.

    [​IMG]

    It’s All About Earnings

    What drives long-term stock gains? It is earnings and the backdrop continues to look quite strong. The still healthy consumer, strong labor market, potentially lower rates helping housing, and improving manufacturing all suggest an economy that could surprise to the upside the rest of ‘24. Nominal GDP came in near 6% last year for one of the best years in recent memory, but the stage is set for similar growth this year. Remember, nominal GDP growth leads to profit growth and profits matter.

    S&P 500 first quarter earnings are up more than 5.0% currently, from 3.2% expected at the start of the quarter, according to FactSet. This would be the best earnings growth in nearly two years, while revenue is higher for the 14th quarter in a row as well.

    Corporate profits for the S&P 500 are expected to hit an all-time high this year, with a gain in ’24 of close to 11%. We’ve found that periods that have strong productivity (like we are seeing now) tend to come in even better than expected and we think 11% could be a tad low as a result. The mid-to-late ‘90s saw strong productivity, and also saw earnings and GDP consistently come in much better than was expected. It was the last decade, when productivity was low, that GDP disappointed consistently in the 2% range. Look at the quote at the top one more time, the easiest answer is earnings are strong and that is likely why stocks have been strong!

    The other thing we’ve seen lately is analysts coming in too low with earnings estimates, as they are still too skeptical of this recovery. Looking out a year, forward 12-month S&P 500 earnings have soared from $243 at the start of the year to $254 currently. When companies post record profits you tend to see stock prices follow suit and we don’t think this time will be any different.

    [​IMG]

    Profit margins and CAPEX Continue to Improve

    A cousin to earnings is profit margins and stronger profit margins could be another reason to expect a stronger economy and bull market. Yes, profit margins are improving due to cost-cutting, but this will likely create a leaner and more agile corporate America the second half of this year.

    We’ve been told for what feels like years now that profit margins have only one way to go and that is lower, but the opposite continues to happen. Improving profits and profit margins supported by continued economic growth next year would provide a strong tailwind for equities.

    [​IMG]

    Higher capital expenditures (CAPEX) is another positive. In fact, forward 12-month CAPEX is at an all-time high as well. Companies investing in themselves should lead to continued stronger productivity growth, which will help economic growth likely exceed expectations.

    [​IMG]

    Improvement on the Inflation Front

    Lastly, and maybe most importantly, we’ve seen overall improvement on the inflation front over the past year, but the past few months have shown that the path lower won’t come without some bumps. We remain in the camp that inflation will continue to improve and the blip we’ve seen early this year is more seasonal quirks and outliers that are unlikely to persist (higher auto insurance and higher financial services fees for example).

    We know that rents are falling in the private data, which gives a good estimate of prices for new or renewed leases. The rental price for a lease today is likely less than a similar lease over the last couple of years, but that has yet to flow to the government’s data, which includes all rents and shelter, even rent “attributed” to homeowners. Remember, shelter makes up more than 40% of the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), so any improvement here will quickly influence CPI data. But while we’re waiting for overall rents to catch up with changes in asking prices seen in private data like Apartment List and Zillow, keep in mind that if you remove shelter from CPI, inflation is actually running quite close to that 2% level the Fed targets.

    [​IMG]

    There has also been concern over higher wages impacting inflation, but we expect improvements there as well over the coming months and quarters. The recent JOLTS data showed a healthy but normalizing labor market as wage growth slows. The Indeed Wage Tracker similarly showed slowing wage growth. Remember the 1970s saw wage growth up around 9%, which did flow through to overall inflation. Wages are still solid right now, but more in the range of what we saw pre-pandemic.

    [​IMG]

    All of this matters, as it sets the stage for the Fed to cut rates this year, likely two times. We started the year with markets looking for 6-7 cuts, but it then fell to only one cut (with some vocally calling for a hike recently). Just as the pendulum had swung too far toward many cuts to start the year, we feel it has swung too far the other way now. With improving inflation data expected, the Fed should have the ammo to cut rates, likely starting in September, or at the very least to push back on the hawkish rhetoric. Either could be a nice tailwind for equities."

    MY COMMENT

    To me the above is the....BIG PICTURE. The day to day....breathless coverage......the LITTLE PICTURE.

    Over the long term it is the BIG PICTURE that matters to investors. It is the BIG PICTURE that represents truth versus all the short term opinons that usually never comes true or has some ulterior motive.

    AND....yes....it IS all about earnings and contrary to what some want to push ......they have been very good. Hopefully the BEST is yet to come with NVDA.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    Sounds good to me.

    US weekly jobless claims hit highest level since August

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-123949940.html

    MY COMMENT

    A very good indication for those that want to see a FED rate cut. Also a good indicator for slowly declining inflation. The economy is very strong right now and can withstand a little weakness in employment.

    Not that I trust this sort of data anyway....there are so many seasonal factors, revisions, and other "stuff" that impacts these numbers....that they are not very accurate or trustworthy.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    Other than the above another day of NOTHING going on. We are seeing the usual earnings reports....some good some not. BUt in all earnings have been strong.

    Dow gains, putting index on track for seventh straight positive day

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks were slightly higher on Thursday as traders weighed disappointing earnings against new data that gave Wall Street hope of easier Federal Reserve policy later this year.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Averageadded 101 points, or 0.3%. If the index ends the day in the red, that would snap a six-day winning streak for the 30-stock index. The S&P 500 added 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.1%.

    Weekly jobless claims came in at the highest level since August, raising expectations that central bankers might cut interest rates at some point this year.

    A fresh batch of quarterly earnings reports came out below Wall Street’s expectations. Warner Bros Discovery slid 2% after reporting a miss on the top and bottom lines, while semiconductor company Arm lost more than 6% over lackluster revenue guidance. Airbnb pulled back 7% after a weak guidance overshadowed a first-quarter beat.

    Wall Street is coming off a mixed session, with the Dow notching a six-day winning streak and the S&P 500 closing lower for the first time in five days.

    We probably are just retracing some of the enthusiasm that we came into the start of the year with,” said Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, on “Closing Bell.” “April was the worst month that we’ve seen in quite a while, and I think that was really a precursor to some of the reactions we’re now getting after earnings reports.”"

    MY COMMENT

    Screw the short term......the future is bright....as usual for well positioned and rational long term investors. We are still in a BULL MARKET.

    AND.....I will continue to RIDE THE WAVE.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,955
    BUT....contrary to all the big picture positive happenings....we are seeing a distinct mixed day today. Many BIG CAP tech companies are in the red right now. Probably in sympathy with ARM. It is not justified....but...that is just how it is.

    At least we have a long day ahead of us and plenty to time to see some changes. BUT......I really dont expect much to change from now to the close other than perhaps a bit of moderation of some of the early losses in big tech. Keep in mind that "moderate" does not mean.....turn green.

    I am off to a routine Dr appointment....to get a wart zapped...... and to run some errands.......so....I will leave the markets to everyone else. DO GOOD EVERYONE.
     

Share This Page