When I think back like the above post.....I am TOTALLY STRUCK...by the fact that most of the tech that we and especially young people take for granted now....ONLY.....came into common use in the mid 1990's to about 2005 era. It is extremely early in the modern tech era. Dont even get me started on the advances in business equipment.....phones, dictation devices, typing and word processing, etc, etc, etc.....that I saw in the business world over the past 50 years. For the OLD TIMERS.......I am sure that the phrase...."IBM SELECTRIC"....will trigger fond office memories.
My dad had the Motorola DynaTAC (or least I think that's what it was). Definitely a brick by today's standards. My first purchases were made through a full service broker and that was expensive. Moved to a bank brokerage with discount rates and I think it was typically $30 or $50 per trade (and more expensive for larger share lots of a lower price stock). Then Fido had $8 trades. And of course now everything is "free." Although personally I think I'd rather pay $8/trade and not have them sell my order flow . . . although when you hold for decades the pennies that the market front runners are shaving off of you hardly matter. Just another reason to be a LONG TERM investor. While we're reminiscing . . . I also used to do stock research using printed pages off of micro-fiche films and the films were held in these giant bins that rotated on a huge carousel (like a Ferris wheel). Things have changed a bit . . . I don't miss too much about the old days . . . they were cool and formative . . . most things are better now . . . but I still tend to write my stock research note prices in 1/4s, 1/8s and 1/16s.
Well I am still hanging in there today with just slightly over an hour to go. I STILL have only one stock in the red....HD. If I can hang till the close it will have been a very strong week for me. With the big beat on the SP500 yesterday and a good beat in progress today.....combined with the first three days of the week....I am going to take a big jump up this week on the SP500. That is what I like to see since the SP500 is my primary measurement tool. We are STILL only five month into the year.....and....the SP00 as well as most of us on this thread are really hitting the markets hard. Very strong gains for only five months. Now if only we can hang on and finish the next seven months just as strong. I am sure we will see a little correction some time before the end of the year. So the more cushion I can build up now the better. Of course I dont actively do anything to build that cushion other than sit and watch.
From what I am reading and seeing in daily life......even though inflation has come way down from the peak....we are in an EXTREME situation right now for "normal working people". The products and services that "normal people" have to use every day....are hammering people with high prices. For a "normal working family" I think we are at PEAK INFLATION right now in spite of the data. Much of the issue is ....gas prices....auto and HO insurance (massive hikes).....groceries....fast food and restaurants....dry cleaning......stuff for kids......etc, etc. I do think that some of the hikes in the areas above are abusive and not justified. Or at best.....they reflect two years of continuous and cumulative price hikes that have now become unbearable to many families. At the same time....I believe that this is the PEAK for a normal family and all the push back and complaining that I am seeing every day.......and families cutting back and shopping by price....means that we are at about the WORST. It just has the "FEEL" to me of being a top. At least I hope so......people need some breathing room.
I am happy to see this little article even though I am a HD shareholder. When we lived in the country on our small horse ranch.....the nearest town.....15,000 people.....had only local hardware stores. One of them was an Ace Hardware. Now the town has a Home Depot and a Lowes. We used to shop at ACE all the time and it was a great local store. Management was local as was everyone that worked there. How Ace Hardware, America’s neighborhood hardware store for 100 years, is beating its big-box rivals https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/24/business/ace-hardware-staying-power/index.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "New York CNN — Mahin Barker said soccer moms keep her on her toes at her store in West Lake Hills on the outskirts of Austin, Texas. They come in nearly every day and they’re keen to shop. “They have a lot of time and disposable income to spend so we have to keep our merchandise fresh because they’re here so often,” she said. The store she runs is an Ace Hardware. The 100-year-old, Oak Brook, Illinois-based hardware chain, which has permeated America’s smaller neighborhoods with more than 5,000 locations, appears to be pulling in shoppers even as its big-box hardware rivals Home Depot and Lowe’s are struggling to do the same. One indicator is how frequently people are heading to Ace Hardware versus its competitors. Monthly customer traffic to Ace Hardware locations is up so far this year versus a year ago, compared to mostly dropping shopper traffic every month to Home Depot and Lowe’s stores over the same period, according to Placer. ai, which uses location data from mobile devices to estimate visits to specific retailer locations. Also, all three retailers reported their quarterly sales this month and it wasn’t a pretty picture for the industry Goliaths. Home Depot’s same-store sales (or sales at stores open at least a year) in the US fell 3.2% in its latest quarter both as shoppers pulled back on remodels and renovations and also on discretionary decorative-type purchases to spruce up their homes. Home Depot’s stock price is down 5% so far in 2024. Lowe’s sales at stores open at least a year fell a steep 4.1% in its latest quarter for similar reasons. Lowe’sstock price has dipped 7% in the past month. “The danger here is that while Home Depot has a commanding position, it faces much more competition on the light-side improvement space from smaller improvement players, garden centers, and specialists like Sherwin Williams in categories like paint,” Neil Saunders, retail analyst and managing director at Globaldata Retail, wrote in a note last week “Consumers are now shopping around more to find the best bargains and deals,” he said. These trends appear to be working in Ace Hardware’s favor. The hardware chain saw a small increase in its US same-store sales in its most recent quarter and a 1.1% increase in the average amount people spent per store trip. Total revenue for the company systemwide rose 2.5% in the period from a year ago. It expects to open 200 new stores in 2024. Small and mighty stores Ace Hardware’s store setup — smaller-sized shops of 7,000 to 10,000 square feet on average — situated within communities and selling much more than just nuts, bolts and paint are resonating with the evolving shopping psyche of today’s rushed consumers, industry watchers said. Each store carries about 25,000 to 30,000 unique products. “It’s an interesting phenomenon,” said Michael Brown, partner in consulting firm Kearney’s consumer products and retail practice. “Ace is your local customized, intimate hardware store where I can go in, get something very quickly, talk to people that I know. It’s also close to home and I can easily meet my small project needs,” he said. Home Depot and Lowe’s, by contrast, cater to the contractor or the homeowner doing big remodeling work. And while bigger home renovation projects have slowed in recent months, those larger hardware stores have suffered sales declines. Ace, meanwhile, benefits as people turn to smaller fix-it projects, he said. “They’re positioned quite well now geographically to service the needs of the consumer today,” he said. “They’ve build a unique niche and their stores are also bringing a local flavor to them.” Barker is owner and operator of five Breed & Co Ace Hardware locations in the Austin, Texas, area. The West Lake Hills store, in particular, is popular with women. While the store stocks typical hardware needs such as screws, drill bits and hammers, Barker goes to great lengths to offer the unexpected. “I like to call it a boutique atmosphere,” she said. She said upper-income customers have expectations of better service. “If you want to continue to have that consistent repeat business you got to give them what they want.” In addition to hardware and garden products, the housewares section offers a wedding registry. “It’s a very unique proposition because we don’t have a lot of competition in terms of local, relevant and differentiated retailing here,” Barker said. The registry idea arose from a local need. “We noticed that a lot of brides don’t necessarily want to get what Aunt May buys for them,” she said. Engaged couples, she said, sometimes prefer picking items such as a grill or plants. So we’ve really beefed up that side of the business to stay relevant to our customers.” Jewelry is a top seller, too, as are pricey Le Crueset pots and pans, Nest candles, baby products such as plush toys, baby onesie pajamas and truffle chocolates. “We sell a ton of Le Crueset. It’s one of our top performers,” Barker said. “Many of our customers are grandparents going to a baby shower and they need a gift. We count on people coming in everyday to buy a gift item from us.” This hybrid hardware-home goods-curio model is setting Ace Hardware stores apart. “Consumers are looking for new places to shop,” Brown said. “We’ve lost places like Bed Bath & Beyond and Linens ‘n Things, where you go to buy a curtain rod or smaller home needs. Ace is nicely filling that void.” A retail cooperative Ace Hardware, with its catchy jingle “Ace is the place with the helpful hardware folks,” was founded in 1924 by a group of four Chicago hardware store owners. It operates a unique structure in which only 4% of its more than 6,000 worldwide stores are company owned. The retailer, instead runs as a retail-owned cooperative, which means individual store operators are also part owners, making them independent entrepreneurs. “They are essentially shareholders, they own the brand and the company,” said Kim Lefko, chief marketing officer of Ace Hardware. Individual store owners, who make up more than 90% of the business, select products in two ways: They can order and stock national brands and private label products in bulk at a lower price directly from Ace Hardware’s warehouses. They also have the flexibility to curate about 20% of the merchandise mix to suit local tastes and needs by ordering directly from other vendors, Lefko said. “During the post World War I era, the four business owners much like today wanted to be competitive in the marketplace. They got together and the very first product they bought was a truckload of sponges so they could be price competitive,” said Lefko. “This really is the co-op structure. It keeps us competitive against the like of Home Depot and Lowe’s, together with the ability to also tailor the products to what the local community needs.” But all stores are still unified under Ace’s national marketing and advertising effort, she said. Ace is pushing innovation with the brand, too. It just launched its first Ace-branded food product, a line of BBQ sauces, and a collection of Ace Hardware vintage-inspired clothing. Legendary NFL coach and broadcaster John Madden served as a pitchman for Ace Hardware for more than 20 years while his NFL broadcast partner Pat Summerall was a pitchman for rival hardware chain, True Value. In many of the same neighborhoods, Ace Hardware has gone head-to-head with True Value, which operated a similar model to Ace for many years, a cooperative partly owned by its roughly 4,000 store owners. Private equity firm Acon Investments purchased True Value in 2018 and ended its time as cooperative retail chain. Michael Wynn, owner of Sunshine Ace Hardware with 12 locations in the Southern Florida area, is catering to a different demographic in his community –- fishermen. Among the locally curated products he stocks next to plumbing, electrical supplies and hardware are fishing gear — reels, rods, tackles and Yeti coolers. “We have the largest assortment in southwest Florida,” he said. “But we also sell homemade fudge and Vera Bradley bags and pouches.” “People are time starved. They want quick and convenient shopping experience and we’re trying to give them that,” Wynn said, whose grandfather founded the first Sunshine Ace in 1958. So he added a drive-thru window in one of his newer stores. He’s glad he did. He said a customer recently pulled up to pick up an order but his child was agitated and made it difficult for the man to come into the store. “So he requested that the store clerk bring the order to him,” said Wynn. “This for me is a big part of why we try to offer unique services and look out for our customers.”" MY COMMENT YES....ACE IS THE PLACE. They are the hardware and more store...... for small and middle size towns across America. What this little article reflects is exactly what I learned in business school when we were looking at Walmart wiping out small town America business and how it could be defeated....or at least survived. The key...local customer service and perks that WMT could not match. A total retail "MARKETING CONCEPT"....as we called it in business school..... focused on customer service and fine tuned merchandise....for the local customer. The primary emphasis....service, service, service. I note that West Lake Hills mentioned above is an extremely wealthy suburb (a little city with its own government and schools) that is totally surrounded by Austin. It is in Austin but not part of Austin. Kind of like Alamo Heights in San Antonio. Tractor supply is the same way in middle America and small to medium towns. We used to also shop there often as well as the local feed store. Although Tractor Supply tends to be more uniform in their merchandise. Our local ACE had the pots and pans, the wedding registry, and all the other items that appealed to women.
A BIG TIME KILLER DAY for me to end the week. Eight of ten stocks UP for me today since AMZN decided to go slightly red to join HD at the close. I beat the SP500 by 0.87%. Big gains by SMCI...+4.31% and of course....NVDA...+$27 or +2.57% today. All I can say about this week for me is.....BIG WOW.
For the week: DOW year to date +3.59% DOW five days (-2.30%) SP500 year to date +11.85% SP500 five days (-0.01%) NASDAQ100 year to date +13.75% NASDAQ100 five days +1.32% NASDAQ year to date +14.59% NASDAQ five days +1.31% RUSSELL year to date +2.74% RUSSELL five days (-1.35%) I had a great week thinks to NVDA and the rest of my stocks. Last Friday at the close my entire portfolio was at +26.54% year to date. Today my entire portfolio is at.....+32.06%...year to date. Needless to say....I will take it. We ended the week with NVDA at $1065. Wednesday at 2:30 it was at $934. So we had a gain from that point compliments of the HUGE EARNINGS BEAT of......drum roll please......$131....or....14.03%.
We now move on to the final few days of May 2024. The markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. So three market days left in May for the markets. SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY.....I dont think so. BUMMER for those that follow this sort of superstition.
HAVE A GREAT THREE DAY WEEKEND THOSE OF US THAT LIVE IN THE USA. For those outside in the EU or elsewhere.....HAVE A GREAT....two day.... WEEKEND.
This is not....obviously...representative of my longer term performance....but for the past SIX YEARS (May 23, 2018 to May 23, 2024) here is some data for my ENTIRE primary account at Schwab: Total Return +314.70% Annualized Return +27.13% The above data includes all holdings in the account including the Fidelity Contra fund and my SP500 Index fund. It also EXCLUDES all net contributions over that time span. I find it very interesting that this data includes the horrible BEAR market of 2022 as well as all of the PANDEMIC years. I am not cherry picking this data....it is what I can get in the way of "clean data" from Schwab. I would have liked to go back further. I have no idea what my long term...lifetime...annual gain is. From what I can access on Schwab and considering that back when I was keeping data till about 2005 I was at between 14% and 15%.....I am guessing that I am somewhere between about +16% and +18% now. Keep in mind that my LIFETTIME data is positively skewed by my BIG MSFT gain from 1990 to 2002 as well as other very much out of the ordinary stock picks. ALSO...keep in mind that I have no doubt....that there are others on here that make these numbers look like peanuts.....if they have been taking extremely aggressive risk. AND......keep in mind that past returns mean nothing.....going forward. My investing goals remain the same as always.....average at least 10% per year for the long term....and....try to beat the SP500 any one year. BUT....I do consider SIX YEARS as an example of LONG TERM investing. AND....these returns give me somewhat of a nice cushion for the next bear market in terms of lifetime returns. WHATEVER.
BUT a word of caution on the above. Those returns.....+27.13%..... are NOT normal for me or anyone else over a very, very, long term. They are WAY TOO HIGH. I would consider it a GOOD BEAT and very much ABOVE AVERAGE to be able to beat the SP500 by 1.5% to 4% over the long term. In other words to be able to average about......12.% to 16% per year...over the very long term.....20, 30, 40, 50, years. GREED is the investment KILLER.
Here we go again? Sudden container crunch sends ocean freight rates soaring, setting off global trade alarm bells https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/a-s...h-is-sending-ocean-freight-rates-soaring.html "Key Points An ocean container capacity crunch has hit global trade just as peak shipping season starts, with freight spot rates up some 30% over the past few weeks and heading higher. Bad weather, longer ocean transits, and vessels skipping ports are adding to the supply chain issues. Freight intelligence firm Xeneta is warning that rates could rise through June, and the “dramatic” rise will surpass the Red Sea spike, ultimately hitting consumer prices." MY COMMENT Shades of the pandemic. Different causes....but....same basic result going on. Hopefully market forces will resolve this issue quickly. BUT.....not a good thing.
I talked about this company a little while ago. I dont follow it but this is an example of what is going on with consumers.....even high end consumers at times. Lululemon Shares at Bottom of S&P 500 as Sales Concerns Grow https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lululemon-hits-bottom-p-500-123001807.html MY COMMENT NOT relevant to me since I am not a fan of boutique or FAD stocks. I see Peloton the same way....although this is a little better company. But I see this as indicative of what is going on with consumers right now.
When the government starts talking about...."higher revenue"....they mean taking more money out of your pocket....TAXES. The government has little to no actual "revenue". Higher taxes......a sure way to drag the economy and just what consumers and people need when they are under financial stress already. BUT....as usual...government simply does not care. Yellen Says Higher Path for Rates Boosts Need to Lift Revenue https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-says-higher-path-rates-110000233.html MY COMMENT THEY....government....never care and are never satisfied. MORE, more, more. Your partner in life that will suck you dry. The BIG DANGER in all this "stuff"....higher capital gains taxes. (I said as a LIBERTARIAN and free market capitalist)
I continue to.....as always...look for good potential holdings that are non-tech. That is one reason that I own the SP500 Index and fidelity Contra fund....for a little bit of diversity. WMT is one that I have in the back of my mind....but....I am not buying any time soon. I want to see how they do once inflation goes down. I am not sure their current earnings are representative of the future. This is why I was happy to add CMG as a JUNIOR HOLDING lately. No one gets in trouble owning too many tech stocks https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-o...-tech-stocks-chart-of-the-week-100039376.html
I see everybody made it through another week. Some great posts and coverage of the earnings that occurred. We continue to march on in the long term investing thread. It appears this week had the usual media frenzy and speculation about "knowing" all things....when they really do not. Wow! The headline above "No one gets in trouble owning too many tech stocks" is a good example. I only skimmed the article briefly, mainly due to the headline being a bit silly. A blanket statement/headline like that is what gets the inexperienced in trouble. More and more I think our financial media caters to that type of investing though. Anyway, it won't be long and we will be at the half-way point already to the year. Time seems to really fly. Enjoy the week end and take a moment to remember and pay honor to all of those in our military that have paid the ultimate price. They should never be taken for granted...nor should our current service members.
Since we're all just chatting here, I'll throw out . . . market up a lot lately . . . obviously fewer stocks in the buy range . . . but of what I already own the ones I would consider buying at current prices are GPC, HSY, SNA, SON and maybe SYY. I opened an account for an infant family member in the past couple weeks and she ended up with GPC, SON and PAYC to start. I'm a fan of the long term prospects of V and PAYC even though valuations are high by my standards. HSY valuation is high too (and they have cocoa cost issues) but long term I'm just convinced HSY is a different version of KO and it will work out. Unlike you I have too much non-tech and should probably have more tech. A few others I don't own that I'm watching . . . are MDLZ, DE/CAT (probably too cyclical for me), CEIX/ARCH (but coal, so probably not LONG TERM, I've been in and out of them already) . . . I'm sure you understand I have dozens of others I watch that I would like to own but never quite get into my buy range at the right time . . . for instance I've been watching ITW for 10-15 years . . . I have a couple dozen on my "good balance sheet" tracking list (like ITW) but they are pretty much all >20x PE these days.
A question for you goldendad....since you are old school. What would you consider the best....top five....big cap (NON-TECH) growth stocks right now? I am always looking for non-tech ideas. Of the old school stocks I do like PG....if I HAD to own one of my former holdings. And as I said above WMT. BUT....I have not done any analysis of PG in a long time. MDLZ.....there is another company that both my mom and I used to own.
WELL......DUH. Seems totally obvious to me.....but I will post this just to put this out there for the historical record. The Fed probably won’t be delivering any interest rate cuts this summer https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/25/the...iver-any-interest-rate-cuts-this-summer-.html
I'm probably not the best to answer that because for the most part I'm looking for predictable steady growth . . . most of mine have a good chance of growing 3-8%/yr which wouldn't put them on the top of any growth charts. When I am looking for something with more growth I usually start by looking at the inside back page of the ValueLine index which has a page full of stocks that have grown by (roughly) more than 10% in the last 10 years and have predicted growth of more than 10% going forward. I don't own many (any?) of those though except V and MSFT. Other fast growers I own are FI, SPGI and PAYC (those aren't on the ValueLine list though). Of my normal stodgy investments the ones I own that I think will be in the high single digit growth for the next five years I have the greatest confidence in GPC, SON, HSY (once they get over this speed bump), SNA, K and probably SYY, KDP and AFL. I also own EMR which I think has set itself up for good growth going forward with their reorganization into an automation play. Which is a whole other post, but I think automation is the physical AI . . . automation has been big for quite a while but I think will continue to get bigger thanks to rising labor costs. So I've held it even though the dividend is anemic by my standards. I own a lot of PG . . . it's one I don't bother thinking about much because I'll own it forever . . . I've owned it so long the annual dividends are now basically equal to my basis . . . I have tabs on my spreadsheet that calculate DividendCAGR and ReturnCAGR (which also does earnings CAGR) and PG's earnings CAGR for the last 11 years is 4.3% and for the last 6 years is 7.2% . . . they are so big I don't really see those numbers doing better going forward. The 4-7% EPS growth doesn't justify its 25x multiple imo . . . but oh well, I don't set the price.
