The Long Term Investor

The market next week.

Inflation, Fed meeting to give clues for U.S. market direction

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...ng-give-clues-us-market-direction-2024-06-07/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - Investors will closely watch next week’s inflation numbers and Federal Reserve meeting for clues on whether the soft landing hopes that drove stocks to record highs are still justified.

This year's rally has lifted the S&P 500 up more than 12% year-to-date, on expectations the Fed can cool inflation without hurting growth. Yet recent economic data have sent conflicting signals: U.S. employment numbers released Friday were far stronger than expected, while earlier reports showed a slowdown in manufacturing and a first-quarter growth rate revised lower.

May inflation data, due next Wednesday, must walk a tightrope to satisfy expectations of a "Goldilocks economy": satisfactory growth with prices under control. Later that day, investors will look to the Fed for signals on the central bank's rate cut plans.

“The market would like some clarity and not see the Fed have to wait until December or January to begin cutting rates,” said Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, adding a long period of elevated borrowing costs could hurt the economy.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, exceeding 185,000 jobs forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. After the data, futures markets showed investors trimming expectations for rate cuts, with chances of a September cut falling to about 55% from about 70% before the report.

Strong employment data countered earlier reports suggesting the economy was cooling, including a June 3 release showing U.S. manufacturing activity in May slowed for a second straight month.

Despite the S&P 500’s march to new records, some investors worry the gains have concentrated in a few giant technology and growth names such as Nvidia, with the rest of the rest of the market far more tepid.

U.S. stock valuations remain well above historic norms, noted Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research. The median price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 would need to fall 31% to hit its long-term median, and 19% to reach its 20-year norm, he said.

"People are concerned about how far and how high this market has risen and how narrow it has been," said Raul Diaz, senior investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management.

Plenty of investors believe strong corporate results and a relatively benign macroeconomic environment can keep supporting stocks. First quarter earnings came in about 8.1% above analyst expectations, according to LSEG data.

“We believe U.S. stocks are likely to remain supported by favorable macro conditions, healthy earnings growth, AI tailwinds, and the potential for a Fed pivot before year-end,” wrote Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note this week.

The bank recently upgraded its year-end S&P 500 target to 5,500, up 3% from where the index trades today.

Others believe political uncertainty, not economic data, will cause turbulence later this year. The first debate between President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Republican challenger and former president Donald Trump will take place June 27, nearly three months earlier than the Sept. 16 date suggested by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which has managed them since 1988.

That could turn the market’s attention to the 2024 presidential election earlier in the year than usual, said Grace Lee, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

"The market still on the surface looks like everything is fine, but I think there’s a certain nervousness that may not even be about the economic data," said Lee. "People want to stick to what has been working and not go too far out on a limb into other areas that might see political ramifications, whether it's healthcare and drug prices or clean energy.""

MY COMMENT

Sounds about right for the week....the FED and....economic data.

 

YES....Smokie.

I do think many of these people are under age 35......and pump out these boilerplate articles with no real basic experience as investors. It may be that they actually think this is how investors think. That would be pretty sad.

OR

They simply constantly push the negative since they know that negativity will generate more "clicks".....even though they know better when it comes to the content.

Either way much of this daily content is not worth much to any sort of REAL INVESTOR and/or long term investor.

 

I still see the ultimate BLACK SWAN lingering in the distant.....distant.... background. That is......China invading Taiwan.

I see this as an EXTREME version of the pandemic which I believe China started....possibly intentionally.

I dont believe this is on the horizan any time soon......but....China has this in their back-pocket for any time in the future that gets EXTREME ENOUGH for them to use it.

Why would they use it......first they actually DO want Taiwan back. Second and more important.....90+%....of the worlds semi-conductors are manufactured in Taiwan and obviously all the machinery, manufacturing equipment, tech, and designs are in Taiwan.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would throw our entire economy into TURMOIL.....for years..... and severely impact ALL of our BIG CAP TECH companies....to the EXTREME. It would make the pandemic and what we went through in the pandemic look like nothing.

I dont mean to fear monger.....as I said this is.....NOT....I repeat, NOT....right around the corner. BUT....I do believe they are smart enough to know the power that simply holding this in their back pocket gives them.

On the positive side.....there is NOTHING I can do about this.....hopefully, REMOTE POSSIBILITY. So I will not let it impact how I invest.

 

The headlines and articles regarding NVDA right now are INSANE

6 Reasons to Buy Nvidia Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

Here's What Happened After Nvidia's Last 3 Stock Splits (and What That Means for the Stock Today

If This Happens, NVIDIA Stock Will Soar Higher

Nvidia's stock split is largely 'cosmetic,' and mammoth gains could keep rolling in

Yes this is a great stock.......BUT.....BIG BUT......the danger right now with this company and CONFIRMATION BIAS is HUGE.

"Confirmation bias (also confirmatory bias, myside bias,[a] or congeniality bias[2]) is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values.[3] People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Confirmation bias is insuperable for most people, but they can manage it, for example, by education and training in critical thinking skills."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias#:~:text=Confirmation bias (also confirmatory bias,one's prior beliefs or values.

"Key Takeaways

• 
  
  
  • Confirmation bias is the tendency of human beings to actively search for, interpret, and retain information that matches their preconceived notions and beliefs.
  • The confirmation bias concept comes from the field of cognitive psychology and has been adapted to behavioral finance.
  • Confirmation bias flourishes because it's an efficient way to process information, it promotes self-esteem, and it eases stress by eliminating conflict and contradictions.
  • Investors should be aware of their own tendency towards confirmation bias so that they can overcome poor decision-making, missing chances, and avoid falling prey to bubbles.
  • Seeking out contrarian views and avoiding affirmative questions are two ways to counteract confirmation bias."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/confirmation-bias.asp

BUYER BEWARE. I obviously own a lot of shares of NVDA and I see the......"PROBABILITY"....for this company as extremely favorable. BUT.....I still consider all the various negative events and possibilities.

As a long term investor do what you have to do.....BUT.....be aware of your brain driving you to do crazy things. Be RATIONAL and REALISTIC.

 

I have spoken often on here about the danger of our market system being destroyed. I see investor ignorance and trading mentality along with the continued movement against capitalism and the free market system....as the big threat to the markets.

I also believe the current advent of the....INFLUENCER REVOLUTION.....is also a huge threat to freedom and the future of our free market culture.

as I say.....once the market system and capitalism are gone.....they will never be put back together again.

 

Now for some positivity.

Nvidia stock split: What's next for the stock and other AI plays

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...r-the-stock-and-other-ai-plays-163017546.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Now entering the stock split zone.

Nvidia (NVDA) is joining its mega-cap tech peers, becoming the fourth Magnificent 7 stock to split since 2022.

The chip giant’s 10-for-1 stock split, which will start trading on Monday, follows significant price growth, with shares up 212% in the past year. That massive rally pushed Nvidia into the $3 trillion club alongside Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), becoming just the third U.S. company ever to reach that milestone.

“A stock split is a vote of confidence from management that the stock will hold its value, as the stock [price] typically increases,” S&P Dow Jones Indices senior analyst Howard Silverblatt says.

Winthrop Capital chief investment officer Adam Coons expects the split to boost retail investor interest, but cautions that an influx of retail traders could trigger volatility for the stock.

“They can be a little bit more quick and emotional with their buying and selling decisions, so that can lead to heightened volatility as you start to dilute the institutional buyers,” Coons told Yahoo Finance.

Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel sees increased volatility as an opportunity to buy Nvidia — a stock he views as a “generational opportunity” and this era's "marquee" technology stock.

“While high profile splits have often fueled stock volatility — speculative buying and profit taking around the event — Thinning the trees within the forest post-split catalyzes the Buying Opportunity for the patient investor,” Emanuel wrote in a client note.

Historically, stock splits are typically bullish for the companies that enact them, with average returns one year later of 25% versus about 12% for the broad market, according to analysis from Bank of America.

Nvidia’s skyrocketing gains have driven the broader market to record highs. Its rally accounted for about a third of the S&P 500’s return since the start of the year, and more than a quarter of the S&P 500’s return in the month of May, according to Silverblatt.

Wall Street has gotten even more bullish on the stock since its earnings report on May 22. Last week, Bank of America’s Vivek Arya raised his price target to a Street high of $1,500.

“We are at the start of what I think would be a decade-long conversion to accelerated computing … We think that the spending could be anywhere between $250 to $500 billion a year, and Nvidia is leading the charge,” Arya told Yahoo Finance.

Nvidia’s stock split not only signals management’s confidence in the chip giant, but enthusiasm and optimism about the broader AI industry's growth potential.

As Lam Research (LRCX) CFO Doug Bettinger explained to me at Bank of America’s Global Technology conference earlier this week, we’re still “very, very early” in the AI investment cycle.

That next round of growth — or the second wave of AI — is expected to take hold as companies begin to integrate AI into their planning and enterprise spending.

“More and more companies are adopting hybrid-cloud architectures, and with a focus on building modern applications, and starting their journey into enterprise AI,” Nutanix (NTNX) CEO Rajiv Ramaswami told me.

For investors looking to add to their portfolios, Arya likes Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron (MU), and Arm (ARM) as winners of AI’s continued wave. In a note to clients last month, Arya wrote that he sees increased requirements in computing, networking and memory as a “multi-year growth driver” for the group."

MY COMMENT

With apologies to.....CONFIRMATION BIAS......I continue to see NVDA as a once in a lifetime stock. For me this will be....TWO once in a lifetime stocks......MSFT (1990-2002) and NVDA (2020-date unknown).

I consider myself very lucky to have a shot at a second......once in a lifetime opportunity with NVDA.

Of course.....now the hard work starts. Now the company will be expected to beat earnings quarter after quarter. Investors are spoiled with the massive gains and the massive earnings numbers. They will expect more and more and more. This is HUGE danger to the stock.

In addition....NVDA is still very young....they just hit their early prime in the past 3-4 years. For them to fulfill my view of them being a once in a lifetime opportunity.....they need to become and stay DOMINANT....with the most ICONIC product in the chip world....for at least another 5-10 years. Preferably at least ten years. They need to maintain their position as the most DOMINANT company in their area of business....for the long term. They need to simply THROTTLE the competition and maintain a massive market share advantage for the next ten years.

Time will tell if they can do it. I would say the.....PROBABILITY......right now is that they will. And I am betting big on it.....with the stock being the largest holding in every account that I manage.

 

A BLAH open today.....not unexpected.

With all the NVDA drama and expectations lately due to the split I think the markets is simply worn out and need to take a pause for a few days or a week. In addition the FED will be meeting and talking this week.....usually a non-event lately....but the short term traders will still make the most of it all....as will the media drama-gueens.

I will simply be happy to see us continue with no more rate hikes....there will be plenty of time for cuts in the late fall or in 2025. It will be a good BOOST to the markets down the road to have the rate cuts....nothing wrong with delaying them for a while. In reality any delay of cuts will actually help to prolong the BULL MARKET.

 

Speaking of the FED.....so true.

Why Central Banks’ Inflation Targets Are Wide of the Mark
Don’t fuss over central banks’ inflation targets.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-banks-inflation-targets-are-wide-of-the-mark

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Can Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde hit a bullseye? Pundits are anxious to find out since the latest batch of transatlantic inflation data suggest the Fed and ECB are both nearing their inflation targets. But many see slowing improvement as a sign more action is needed to “hit” the marks. In our view, this vastly overrates central banks’ powers and ability to fine-tune outcomes, and the talk is fueling another round of feckless central bank forecasting.

As for those aforementioned price figures, America’s April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% y/y, unchanged from March’s rate. Meanwhile, the eurozone’s May harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) accelerated to 2.6% y/y from April’s 2.4%[ii] Both measures have been in the range of 2.4% - 2.9% since October 2023, which is fairly close to the Fed and ECB’s respective inflation target of 2% y/y.

The latest numbers are in line with inflation’s overall easing in America and Europe. But many argue the “slow” cooling means central bankers must actto get even closer to 2%. A former New York Fed president argued Powell and friends need to do more to fight inflation since “restrictive” monetary policy hasn’t dampened US economic strength.[iii] Meanwhile, the ECB’s chief economist fretted inflation would get stuck above the bank’s target if Frankfurt didn’t keep rates elevated.[iv]

We disagree central banks need to “do more.” Why? For one, their targets aren’t clearly defined. Yes, yes, the ECB and Fed clearly state on their websites their target is 2% and all that. The former monitors change in the HICP over the “medium term” while the latter tracks the PCE price index “over the longer run.” But the ECB doesn’t define what the “medium term” is. The next six months? Year? Longer?

More significantly, the Fed doesn’t detail what “inflation that averages 2% over the longer run” means. As we wrote back in March 2022, the Fed didn’t specify a timeframe for annual inflation to average 2%. Without knowing the timeframe, you can’t calculate an average. This means one could claim success whenever the numbers “work.”

Lest you think we are reading too much into vague syntax, see the Richmond Fed, which wrote in an October 2023 blog post that “the FOMC did not define the window of time over which it would be looking back to assess progress toward its goal.”[v] This raises the question: What exactly are central bankers aiming for today—inflation that is above, at or below the goal? Just in the ballpark? No one knows the answer, which highlights the folly in trying to foretell central bank moves.

There also isn’t any evidence central bankers can fine tune inflation rates down to the decimal. The Fed made its 2% target official in 2012 and didn’t have much success hitting it. (Exhibit 1) This, in our view, explains why the Fed ditched a clearer 2% target in favor of that undefined average in 2020.

Exhibit 1: US PCE Since 2012


Source: FactSet, as of 6/3/2024.

It was a similar story with the ECB. Since 2003, the bank’s inflation rate target was “below but close to 2%” before explicitly aiming for “2% inflation over the medium term” in 2021. Yet eurozone inflation spent most of the past two decades either above—or well below—that threshold. (Exhibit 2)

Exhibit 2: Eurozone HICP Since 2003


Source: FactSet, as of 6/3/2024.

With all eyes on the ECB’s meeting this week—and the Fed’s next week—expect plenty more grousing over what central bankers should and shouldn’t do. But don’t overrate their actions. Monetary policy is a blunt tool that hits at an undetermined lag. There is no evidence, none, that central banks can or should even try to slice and dice inflation rates down to the decimal.


MY COMMENT

The odds of the FED or anyone else being able to control and guide the economy is ZERO. History tell us that this is an impossibility. Usually attempting to do this simply makes the economy worse and leads to disastrous unexpected results.

In addition to the above......we all know that there is ABSOLUTELY ZERO truth to the 2% target. It is simply a MADE UP number. In fact it does NOT match up with historic norms for inflation in the USA ....especially in a good strong economy. That range is 3-4%.

If I was the FED I would be taking a BIG victory lap over the current 2.7% year over year number of the PCE.

 

The title to this little article should be....."CHURNING OUT DRIVEL". That phrase is in the article as a sub-heading for one of the sections. I happen to agree with this article....especially from the standpoint of business and running a business. The focus of any business should be......SIMPLY.....business. Leave the social "stuff" to other areas of society. In the end the customers will speak with their dollars......and....we know how that usually works out when a business loses track of focusing on their product and customers.

Read it if you wish......or.....ignore this one. If you are a business....ignore it at your risk.

‘Go Woke, go broke’ is the true slogan of The Washington Post

https://nypost.com/2024/06/08/business/go-woke-go-broke-is-the-true-slogan-of-the-washington-post/

 

Yet another basic failure for Boeing. What a management disaster this company is. They continue to SQUANDER what should be easy.....simply produce the best engineered airplanes.....and dominate the airline business. It should be easy....they only have a single competitor.

Here's what happened when Boeing Starliner reached the ISS, narrowly averting crisis
Hurdling mid-flight helium leaks and jammed thrusters, quick-thinking NASA astronauts dock spacecraft

https://www.salon.com/2024/06/08/he...-starliner-reached-the-iss-narrowly-averting/

 

I put myself in this category. I invest the same way I have been investing for the past 55+ years. Why would I not....it has worked very well for me and continues to work.

During Another Meme Stock Rally, Here’s Why I’m Investing Like It’s the Stone Age
Modern personal finance requires an ancient approach.

https://www.morningstar.com/persona...lly-heres-why-im-investing-like-its-stone-age

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"If you are not an extremely online person, you may have missed the recent Reddit post that kicked off another meme stock frenzy this week.

Even if you missed the latest hubbub, new technology has indeed brought investors more options for both what we invest in as well as how we invest in them. From flashy new investments like crypto to online trading apps that make investing faster and easier than ever, it can feel like the best time to be an investor.

Yet, I stand before you an investing Luddite. Why? Because as much as I’d like to think of myself as someone with sophisticated investment abilities, I’m working with the same hardware as my ancient predecessors, and I cannot deny the truth: Our brains are ill-equipped for such an exciting investing landscape.

To illustrate this, let’s look at what I might face during a meme stock rally.

Within moments of picking up my phone, I open Reddit and discover others are clamoring to buy the stock du jour. I see stories of people who previously invested in the stock and hit it big, and I pull up the current stock price and watch its meteoric rise. Suddenly, I’m hooked, and after a few taps on my phone, I find myself the (not so) proud owner of a meme stock.

All too swiftly, I have made an investment decision I didn’t really want to make, thanks to my cognitive biases—what we call mental shortcuts when they lead us astray.

• For one, my interest was piqued by all the other people excited about it. This tendency to go with the crowd is called herding behavior.
• For another, I saw a lot of good news about this stock (both through anecdotes and through share price history), so I projected that recent success onto my future thanks to the availability heuristic.
• Finally, I fell prey to action bias, which tells me that I need to “do something” in moments of excitement or I might regret it.

Our brains work this way for a reason. It was beneficial to our ancestors to be able to make quick decisions on little information. But when it comes to investing, making quick decisions with little information can cause us to make mistakes—especially when we are increasingly able to invest a lot of money with little effort.

And research supports that making good investing decisions can be difficult in the face of these new investment opportunities. For example, investors who use online trading platforms tended to make more trades and hold their investments for a shorter time, both of which can eat away at returns. We also found that investors’ motivations for investing in trendy assets like cryptocurrency are often driven by the desire to chase after returns like those they see in the news—another behavior that amplifies losses.

What we see, then, is that although technological advances bring many benefits to investors, they also bring us many challenges by feeding into behaviors that cost us money.

How I Invest Like It’s the Stone Age

In the past, the amount of time and effort required to invest protected against our behavioral biases. To an extent, it forced us to slow down and rethink our knee-jerk reactions. But as technology has lowered these barriers, we must put in place our own guardrails to help us make good decisions.

To that end, I like to think back to the Stone Age when I’m investing. Though I have no desire to eschew Wi-Fi or electricity, I can learn a lot about executing long-term plans from that time. So, after I’ve decided on a financial plan, I turn to the Stone Age to help me stick with it and reach my financial goals.

1. I don’t read market news daily. Though knowledge is power, too much of it can distract me from my long-term plans. In the Stone Age, news took a long time to reach you, so only important information eventually got to you. Now, the important stuff is harder to suss out amid the stream of information we receive. By limiting the market media I consume, I’m doing the same thing: avoiding the noisy, daily ups and downs and staying focused on the big picture. This means that I may miss out on even knowing something like a meme stock rally is happening until it has long passed.
2. I remain skeptical of strangers’ stories. It’s all too easy for people to lie online, and it’s even easier for us to forget that. We are more connected to strangers than ever before and can feel ties to people we’ve never even spoken to. But historically, it was uncommon to interact with strangers and even more unlikely to trust their word quickly. Therefore, I approach others’ stories about investing success with skepticism. My skepticism helps give perspective; even if what they say is true, I won’t necessarily repeat their success by investing like them, which helps me stay focused on my plan and not theirs.
3. I do things slowly. I love convenience as much as anyone, but sometimes a little friction is warranted. If I were trying to change my plans in the Stone Age, it wouldn’t be as simple as a few taps on my phone while lying on the couch. When something is more difficult or takes longer, we have time to reflect and consider what we really want to do. For me, this means I don’t allow myself to make changes to my investments on my phone, so I at least have some buffer to consider whether I actually want to change my investments.

The cognitive biases we face when investing today have been with humans for millennia, so they won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. But by understanding how we can create our own tools to counteract them, we can still invest well and reach our financial goals."

MY COMMENT

Basically the difference between "trading" and "investing". Also the difference between short term trading and.....long term investing.

BASICALLY....find what works for YOU and simply stick with it for as long as it works. Avoid the latest greatest FADS. In style....out of style....WHO CARES. It is simply about making money. How you get there is irrelevant and no one else's business.

 

The market today.....so far.

US stocks edge lower ahead of huge week on Wall Street

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ad-of-huge-week-on-wall-street-133117537.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks edged lower on Monday as investors braced for a Federal Reserve policy decision and key inflation data in the week ahead, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) events in immediate focus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered just below the flatline, coming off a muted end to a winning week for the three major gauges. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) each fell around 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Stocks are treading water after signs of strength in a mixed May nonfarm payrolls report reinforced bets that the Fed will keep interest rates at a two-decade high for longer. Trader expectations for a cut in September have fallen, while those for November have risen, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Investors are now looking ahead to the Fed's next rate decision and May's Consumer Price Index inflation reading, both due on Wednesday, that will provide another big test for stocks.

In the meantime, eyes are on Nvidia's (NVDA) stock split and a key Apple (AAPL) event as catalysts for stocks on Monday.

Wall Street expects trading in Nvidia to be volatile in the wake of the 10-for-1 split as retail buyers flood in. Some strategists are calling the move a "generational opportunity."

Monday also brings the first day of Apple's most highly anticipated developers conference in years, where CEO Tim Cook is expected to reveal a big push into AI to catch up with rivals.

Elsewhere, investors kept a watchful eye on potential fallout from political upsets in Europe. France's President Macron called a snap national election after a trouncing from the far right in Sunday's EU-wide vote, while Germany's leader also suffered a crushing defeat. The euro (EUR-USD=X) slumped to its lowest level in a month, while the Paris stock index (^FCHI) sank around 2%."

MY COMMENT

In other word a basic market day and a basic market week.

 

The next NVDA story-line. Not that I really care much about the DOW. But....it would force DOW Index funds to buy the stock. I dont know who even buys a DOW Index Fund.

Nvidia sparks chatter over possible Dow inclusion after stock split

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-sparks-chatter-over-possible-120113773.html

 

The growing business trend of the future....which is happening right now. Same as foreign contract workers. You can hardly blame business.....they save massive amounts of money in benefits, withholding taxes, and HR costs. This also gives them the ability to turn on a dime in terms of employee head count.

Corporations leaning on freelancers, expert says
92% of companies said expect to work with more freelancers in 2024

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/corporations-leaning-freelancers-expert-says

 

WELL.....I now see that the DOW and the SP500 are close to simply being FLAT for the day. At the same time the NASDAQ is slightly GREEN.....but....also basically FLAT.

I consider this an improvement from the open and a good sign for a potential green close today.

COME ON.....BUY SOMETHING.

 

Regarding the above....looking good. The SP500 and NASDAQ have made good progress into the morning....so far. Plenty of room for further improvement into the close later today. That is what I consider a.......probability....today.

We continue to move toward the half way point in the year....three weeks to go. It has been a very nice year for the markets. The SP500 is UP by 12.85% year to date.....and....that does not include dividends and reinvesting. The poor SP500 gets lost in all the excitement about the BIG CAP TECH stocks.....and the go-go market.....but the SP500 return so far is KILLER.