The Long Term Investor

Having just looked....I am having a nice day. I have five stocks UP and four stocks DOWN. The red stocks are.....GOOGL, AAPL, CMG, and PLTR.

It seems like a normal FED week Monday today. Seems like the past 3-4 months when we have a FED week....Monday and Tuesday are pretty good days.

I am having to wrap my brain around the new NVDA price and the gain or loss per share. I am so used to thinking in terms of TEN TIMES the current quote and gain or loss. It will take me a about a week to lock in with the new NVDA numbers without a second thought.......and....without mentally multiplying the gain or loss by 10.

ONWARD AND UPWARD.......TO INFINITY AND BEYOND.

 

APPLE continues to be disrespected in the markets...including today....in spite of this story.

Apple debuts Apple Intelligence AI platform for iPhone, Mac

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...nce-ai-platform-for-iphone-mac-185112950.html

MY COMMENT

A good news announcement. Now they have to ....."make it happen". Sooner or later the markets will take notice and there will be a good jump up. The stock continues to LAG year to date being up by ONLY.....+4.03%.

This is why I own nine stocks........I am always going to have some down and some up....but they do very well as a portfolio over the longer term.

 

I am in the green today....medium gain. I am also at an all time high...again. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.23%.

I had only three stocks out of nine down today.....PLTR, CMG, and AAPL. For its first day trading post-split NVDA put up a small gain of +$0.90 per share.

 

It was a clean sweep...make that a.....green sweep for all the big averages today. DOW, SP500, and NASDAQ were all green at the end of the day. I like it.

HERE is the markets today.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at fresh records, clinch first winning day in three as Fed decision approaches

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

The S&P 500 rose slightly on Monday, as Nvidia gains led tech stocks higher, and investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

The broader market index traded higher by just 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 58 points, or 0.1%.

Nvidia shares were up 1% as the stock’s 10-for-1 spilt took effect. Shares of Meta also rallied 1%, pushing the S&P 500 tech sector 0.5% higher.

The Fed’s latest rate decision and May’s consumer price index slated for Wednesday could be key tests for markets, especially after Friday’s strong jobs report continued to suggest the central bank could hold off on lowering rates.

Investors will parse through the Fed’s updated projections on the timing and frequency of rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in just one rate cut this year, coming in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

But Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said inflation is still lingering at elevated levels, causing lasting concerns among investors.

“For me, the big worry is that the Fed has not gone far enough for long enough,” he told CNBC in a recent interview. “I think that at least is going to keep us sort of range bound, and probably stop the markets going much further in the near term.”

In fact, in the next few weeks, Stovall sees the market pulling back at least 5% in a mild correction."

MY COMMENT

Not sure I agree with the correction prediction above. In reality....NO ONE....can predict the short term.....but if I had to bet my life....I would go with the continued positive bias.

A good day to start FED week.

 

I tend to agree. At this point not having any more rate hikes is the primary market driver.

Higher-for-longer rates are 'good for business': Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/high...ss-morgan-stanley-ceo-ted-pick-194119617.html

MY COMMENT

I think that holding back on rate cuts for a few months is not going to do any real harm. In fact it is a good thing to have the ammunition to help drive the markets later....further on up the road. We dont really need any cuts right now to help along the BULL MARKET. Of course....the FED does not think this way...they prefer to trash the markets whenever they can.

 

Want a little FEAR MONGERING....here you go. AND......NO.....I definately do NOT agree. Just posting this as an example of the extreme negative view. I notice that this is an......"economist".....NOT an investor or trader or market person.

Economist Harry Dent predicts stock market crash worse than 2008 crisis: The ‘bubble of all bubbles’
'Artificial' stimulus has delayed the inevitable 'big crash,' Dent tells Fox News Digital in new interview

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/e...market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

Here is his bottom line:

"I think we're going to see the S&P go down 86% from the top, and the Nasdaq 92%. A hero stock like Nvidia, as good as it is, and it is a great company, [goes] down 98%. Boy, this is over," Dent stressed"

Perhaps...but he has been waiting for this CRASH for 14 years now. Glad he is not a money manager.

Of course he has bad news for everyone, not just stock investors:

""No time in history has housing been so widely owned and so many people having second and sometimes third homes just for speculation," Dent said, while pointing out countries like China and Japan are seeing a rising number of residents buy empty properties as collateral to a potential market crash."

As to his history:

"Dent also responded to critics who have called his hypotheses "crazy" and accused him of fearmongering.
"I just say what I see and, frankly, don't give a damn if people don't like it, because you [have] got to choose: are you going to tell the truth, or are you going to make people happy?" he reacted. "They call me a ‘perma-bear.’ This is absolutely, uncategorically B.S.""

"Anticipating the "bubble of all bubbles," Dent previously advised in December for investors to move their capital out of the stock market."

MY COMMENT

I should not make fun of him. BUT....the last person in the world that I would take investing advice from is an...."economist".

It is a good thing I am NOT superstitious.....but....just in case....DONT BLAME ME..

 

As to the above I do agree that government...has been stimulating the hell out of the economy. It might be significant....but....where they are spending all the money on their favorite causes......is simply pouring that money down a rat hole. I would be worried if they were actually pouring all that money into productive businesses.....or....the markets.

 

TireSmoke mentioned this above.

AMD Downgraded by Morgan Stanley on Concerns About AI Expectations

https://www.investopedia.com/amd-do...ley-on-concerns-about-ai-expectations-8660922

"KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Advanced Micro Devices stock fell in intraday trading Monday as it was downgraded by Morgan Stanley over concerns that expectations are too high for the chipmaker's artificial intelligence (AI) products.
• The analysts cut AMD's rating to "equal weight" from "overweight," but held the price target steady at $176.
• Morgan Stanley said it saw limited upward potential for AMD's AI business, preferring Nvidia and Broadcom instead."

MY COMMENT

Sorry AMD shareholders....as a NVDA owner....I love it.

 

I think you might be right Lori....I had not thought of that when I saw the Elon story.

 

FED, FED, FED......today. I am always amazed at the skittish....fear filled....short term market action.

It is not like something bad is going to happen tomorrow. At worst....and I hate to use the word "worst".......the FED simply stands with rates where they are right now and have been for at least the last six months or so. I dont see that as a negative at all. It means the FED is simply standing off to the side and doing nothing. A very POSITIVE event for the markets.

At best....... the FED signals some future rate cuts in the Fall......big deal. It is a sure thing that.....everyone in the world knows at this point....rate cuts are at least 3-5 months away......so.....so what.

So....the FED meeting tomorrow is basically....IRRELEVANT......to investors and everyone else. It is simply a meaningless and worthless exercise in economic ego stroking. BUT.....it gives the headline writers and fear mongers another little few day opportunity to try to get some clicks.

The bottom line.....any reaction by the markets to the FED meeting tomorrow is.....RIDICULOUS. It is all nothing more than....PERFORMANCE ART.

 

As to the above...here is the market today.

Stock market today: US stocks slip from records as focus turns to Fed

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-records-as-focus-turns-to-fed-133049560.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks drifted lower on Tuesday, retreating from record highs as investors waited for the start of a Federal Reserve meeting that should signpost the path of interest rates.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped roughly 0.2% on the heels of both notching all-time closing highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped more than 350 points, or 0.9%

Stocks have managed to make headway amid market uncertainty about an economy that may be too hot or too cold for comfort. A string of inconclusive data has fueled skepticism about the likelihood of three rate cuts in 2024, as envisaged by the Fed in March. Many investors now predict just one reduction before the year's end.

The two-day Fed policy meeting that kicks off Tuesday is heavily expected to end with borrowing costs kept at their two-decade high. Investors will still watch out for hints on when a shift to cuts will come, with September or November in the frame.

Investors calculating the rate-reduction odds are also looking ahead to May consumer price data due out on Wednesday, given its crucial role in the Fed's deliberations.

In individual stocks, Apple (AAPL) shares rallied 3% following losses from the prior session after the iPhone maker's big AI debut. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly (LLY) shares popped after the drugmaker's early-stage Alzheimer's treatment got unanimous backing from a panel of FDA advisers."

MY COMMENT

BORING....day on tap today in spite of the seemingly big drop in the DOW. The poor DOW....has gotten so high at over 38,000....that a little drop......under 1%...... is over 300 points.

To the human brain this is seen as a BIG DROP.......when of course it is not.......in percentage terms. This allows all the market commentators to....FLOG and BREATHLESSLY talk about....."OMG....the DOW is down by over 300 points today".

As I said in the post above.....there is really NOTHING the FED can or will do tomorrow that has any significance at all.

 

Wake me up when the FED meeting is over.....what a waste of time.

 

For those following all the GameStop drama.

The clock is ticking for 'Roaring Kitty' to lock in gains as GameStop’s price declines

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-price-declines-time-decay-101141778.html

May as well post this today.....there is nothing going on anyway and the FED tomorrow is a NON-EVENT.

 

At least AAPL is getting a bump from their conference this week. I see all the emphasis on APPLE and AI as extremely SILLY.

Of course they are going to embed AI in all their products....who is not? Of course AI will be part of their business model going forward.....it will be for every company.

They are.....basically....a consumer product company....I dont expect them to be an AI developer. I simply expect them to be an AI user....hopefully a very smart user of AI in their great consumer products.

 

Even the Ten Year Treasury is BORED and yawning today. The Ten Year Yield is down slightly.