I suspect absent your garden variety black swan, markets will go into a bit of a lull period during the summer doldrums, until election season begins. There’s really not a whole ton going on right now to sway things convincingly in one direction or another. And not to harp on this an umpteenth amount of times here, but this year has definitely seen some one of the most uninspiring market action I personally have witnessed in many years (hence the unprecedentedly low participation in the markets across many stock chat communities I’m on). Hopefully a nice disorderly market meltdown is in the offing at some point. For one, I’m missing Frankenstein’s presence here bigly. Market corrections make for great trading opps and discussions. Things are just so stale and uninteresting right now at these nosebleed levels. Wake me when things finally decide to crash. I miss the circuit breakers
Dell, Nvidia and SMC collaborate to power Musk's Grok AI factory By Investing.com Let's see if this news will bring the AI stocks further higher tomorrow
Not sure if it was a blowoff top but it was an interesting intraday reversal for NVDA and AI stocks today
No idea if this AI rally is close to being done yet but we could be seeing a blowoff top for AI names with NVDA overtook MSFT as the most valuable company in the world. We could also see money moving into AI names and NVDA once Q3 starts but we will see, I am a little more cautious now and would rather buy healthcare, utilities, staples and energy, etc. just in case if this tech rally is running out of steam, I have enough tech exposure already
NVDA rolling over Not too concerned yet and I am not calling NVDA has topped out but if it doesn't rebound when Q3 starts then it could begin to get a little concerning.
i know i've been bitching about "boring" markets this year, but i think theses 2 chart really illustrate the mundane nature of the markets as a whole for the year thus far. there's no denying that market volatility has been quite low for a long time now. in fact, this year's maximum pullback from peak to trough has only been about -5% on the cash spx. it's worth noting that on average we usually see around a -10% drawdown in a given year. additionally, election years on average has been around -13%. needless to say, the markets have been really uninspiring to say the least this year (for me at least, to each their own). lastly, today marked the 337th consecutive trading day where the cash spx hasn't seen a -2% dip. this is one of the longest stretches we have seen on record. we're fast approaching 2017's streak at 351 days. after that you'd have to go back to 2006 which saw a pretty crazy stretch of non -2% market days. this isn't to say that this streak can't keep going, but it does show just how stale and mundane things have gotten in the market this year. i suspect for most investors this is good to see. but, traders like myself love some volatility. there's been hardly any of that for a long time now. case in point, we are kinda overdue for a nasty little pullback or correction at some point. @StockJock-e asked me the other day what my best guess would be for a black swan. i really don't know anymore tbh. i've all but run out of guesses at this point. but, the markets are getting a bit stretched out at these nosebleed levels. nothing moves in straight lines forever. this has been a pretty stretched out run higher without any meaningful dips for a long time now. it will be a glorious sight to see once these markets are ready to pullback hard. i say bring it on. until then, i'm pretty much in hibernation mode. not my cup of tea of a market for me personally. again to each their own.
Get in BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADR looks amazing at $72 with its sell off to early 2024 levels before major rise in stocks.
Whelp, so far it looks like this has been playing out precisely to a tee. The summer doldrums period has now set in on the markets, and I don’t really see much changing this outside of something very shocking and disorderly. Maybe like an external shock or the like. We really haven’t had a natural bear market. The COVID induced bear imo doesn’t really count as it was such a flash in the pan. I think if I remember correctly it was one of the fastest ending bear markets in history so yeah. Perhaps a recession will trigger the next bear. But it’s hard to say how much of an impact that will actually have on the market since we’d be going through the next FED easing cycle with rate cuts and perhaps QE once again. I dunno. I’ve admittedly kinda thrown in the towel thinking of what the catalyst could be to trigger the next market downturn. It’ll be a BTFD scenario either way as usual… That being said, I think a good correction will be very healthy for this market. Things are just so mundane right now. I really find the markets as uninspiring as I have ever seen it now. Absolutely nothing interesting going on out there. Pretty damn bland. A good correction will also bring in some discussions to the boards here too as there will be great trading opportunities presenting itself to talk about. Right now it’s just a really dead and boring as fuck market imo. Sure for the long termers out there that’s all good and dandy. But my gawd. I honestly haven’t seen such a listless market like this in yeeears. It’s like same shit different day rinse and repeat. Pfft.
Usually we see higher volatility during the election years, not this year I guess. If we see a bad earnings season for Q2 earnings then maybe it could be a catalyst for a pullback, the biggest potential black swan might be NVDA coming out of nowhere and lower their guidance but otherwise the market could be looking pretty good here until we get closer to November
Fed chief Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will be looking for any shifts in Powell's comments on monetary policy. But if the recent run of slowing economic data continues, then Powell's prior comments will point to rate cuts later this year. Markets now see a 77.9% chance of a Fed rate cut by the Sept. 17-18 meeting, with a 76.5% chance of two cuts this year. The June CPI inflation report is due on Thursday, following the soft jobs report on June 5. PPI inflation data is on Friday. Bank Earnings Due JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) report earnings on Friday. All are near buy points or early entries.
Stocks were little changed after the new data showed the inflation rate fell to its lowest level in more than three years in June, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year. The S&P 500 hovered just above the flatline along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1%. The consumer price index fell 0.1% last month from May, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual rate. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at a 3.3% annual rate, also lower than economists expected. Get in BABA Bought 3 shares of $BABA just now!
Bank Earnings Due JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) report earnings on Friday. All are near buy points or early entries. ABOVE Banks will take over to records on stocks in charts tomorrow.
A violent rotation out of big cap tech into small cap today If the odds for the September rate cut continue to move higher then I wouldn’t be surprised to see small caps outperforming big cap techs in the H2 of the year
Been missing MarcyDarcy ( @anotherdevilsadvocate ) here lately. Hopefully he’s just on a summer break. I know I’m on an extended hiatus from the markets. There is legit nothing interesting going on out there or has all year long to this point.
Check this out AI king BABA Alibaba has more reasons to rejoice, especially as it became a leading Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) developer. One of its Qwen models has outperformed domestic competitors to secure the third spot globally, following only Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) OpenAI, and Anthropic. The Qwen2-72B-Instruct, the most advanced version of Alibaba’s Qwen family of large language models (LLMs), ranked just behind OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet, SCMP cites SuperClue, a benchmarking platform. Just weeks ago, Qwen2-72B topped the ranking of open-source models on Hugging Face, a machine-learning developer platform, with three Qwen models making the top 10.
I have an account that I am buying mostly the small cap and ARK stocks, it is hitting ATHs again today thanks to the recent small cap rally This account has been way underperforming against my account that I buy mainly the big cap stocks but I am happy that this small cap account is doing better lately, will probably sell into strength since some of those stocks have pretty poor long term fundamentals.
Yep hope Marcy will come back. I am posting less too since this market is going straight up and I am better off to just buy and hold rather than doing a lot of short term trades.
