The Long Term Investor

Why was I not cut out to do small real estate investing.....because.,...I hate dealing with tenants. I hate issues with a house like plumbing, electrical, etc, etc. I hate people that dont take care of the property. Etc, etc, etc.

Stocks may go down but they dont call me in the middle of the winter at midnight with a broken pipe flooding the basement.

LOL

 

Personally I would put the odds of the economy slipping into recession over the next 12 months at 25%.....every single year....all the time.

Besides the fact that recessions, corrections, bear markets, bull markets, etc, are a NORMAL part of the investing and economic process.

 

A great buy Roadtonowhere 08.

 

EXACTLY:

'Don't panic': What to do when the stock market sinks like a stone

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/08/05/dont-panic-stock-market-sinks/74673431007/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"If you are one of those amateur investors who checks your 401(k) balance at every meal, today might be a good day to fast.

Stocks had bad days Thursday and Friday. Monday looks to be worse. Global markets plunged overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index posting the worst one-day return in its history. The losses spread from Asia to Europe, and then to the United States, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened sharply lower.

Market reporters trotted out such terms as “rout,” “correction” and even “panic,” descriptors that invoke memories of the market’s darkest days, such as the brief COVID-19 crash of 2020 and the deeper, longer dive of the Great Recession of 2008.

'Stocks are on sale today'

If anything, financial advisers say, this summer stock swoon would be a great time to buy.

“Stocks are on sale today, right?” Valega said. “If you have some cash, let’s go put some money in the market.”

But that can seem counterintuitive.

To an armchair investor, the dilemma is familiar and frustrating: We are instructed to buy low and sell high. When the stock market tumbles, your first impulse is to sell. But then you are selling low.

The stock market “correction,” in dispassionate Wall Street parlance, unfolded swiftly and with seemingly little warning.

Just last Wednesday, Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell waved off an interest rate cut and assured the nation that the economy was doing pretty well.

“It's just a question of seeing more good data,” he said.

The rest of the week yielded mostly bad data.

A surprisingly weak jobs report stoked fresh recession fears from forecasters. Toss in gloomy earnings reports from Amazon and Intel, and together, those tidings pushed stocks sharply lower on Friday.

That news ricocheted around the globe, seeding Monday’s losses in Asia and Europe. Those losses, in turn, triggered more losses in the U.S.

Market watchers urged consumers to keep a sense of perspective. As of late morning, the S&P 500 was higher than it was at moments in April and May, although that could quickly change.

“Short-term market movement can be unpredictable, but over the long term, the trend is up,” said Erika Safran, a certified financial planner in New York. “The irony is that we rush to buy items on sale, but when it comes to investing, when prices drop, the instinct is to sell.”

And we’re still talking about one bad jobs report. Right?

A 'recipe for sudden volatility'

Well, maybe not. The job market was weakening before Friday’s alarming report. Powell cited cooling job data in his news conference Wednesday, listing it as one rationale for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates soon, perhaps in September.

“While Friday’s employment report was disappointing, it wasn’t the only worrisome economic indicator, only the latest,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, the personal finance site.

Add in “the cacophony of earnings disappointments and weak corporate outlooks, global unrest and currency gyrations, and you have the recipe for sudden volatility,” he said.

Just a week or two ago, most forecasters seemed to think the U.S. stood little risk of recession, a scenario that has hovered over the economy since inflation spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.

But you probably will be hearing a lot more of the R-word in the days to come as the stock market rout prompts new wave of recession forecasts.

Not all the news is gloomy. In one update, released Monday by Wells Fargo Economics, chief economist Jay Bryson waxed upbeat, signaling that he expects economic growth to continue.

“Although the risk of recession has risen,” he wrote, “it still does not exceed 50%, in our view.”

Ironically, these uncertain times create financial opportunities for anyone with the time, interest and fortitude to seize them. Here are a few.

Certificates of deposit

Competitive interest rates are heating up the market for certificates of deposit. Some credit unions are offering to match or beat whatever rate you’re getting at your current financial institution.

Now is an ideal time to grab a 5% or 6% interest rate on a CD, experts say: Once the Fed begins cutting the benchmark rate, CD rates are likely to fall.

Bonds

Bonds tend to provide a nice financial cushion when stocks sink, although the calamitous market events of 2022 prove that the rule doesn’t always hold.

Investment advisers say 2024 is a good time to invest in bonds, given the climate of high interest rates and easing inflation. As a rule of thumb, experts encourage amateur investors to buy stocks and bonds at a roughly 60-40 ratio to maintain a balanced portfolio.

“Bonds are more attractive now than they have been in more than a decade,” Theodore Haley, a certified financial planner in Beaverton, Oregon, said in an interview in July.

Real estate

Mortgage rates sank to their lowest level in more than a year after the weak jobs report. As of Monday, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.95%."

For anyone waiting on the sidelines to buy a house, now might be a good time to enter the market.

“Mortgage rates will drop again today. Homebuyers should start their horses,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, posted Monday on X. "

MY COMMENT

I dont even call these little 1-3 week market drops corrections. I am used to corrections lasting for 2-4 months. I doubt we are going to see that now.

I also SEVERELY doubt there is or will be a recession. My view the odds of recession over the next 6 months....at most....10%.

Next year who knows....much will depend on who is President......and...whether we have a split Congress.

 

And to throw more gasoline on the fire:

Google loses antitrust case over search

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/google-loses-antitrust-case-over-search.html

"Key Points

• A federal U.S. judge ruled Monday that Google has illegally held a monopoly in search and text advertising.
• The court homed in on Google’s exclusive search arrangements on Android and Apple’s iPhone and iPad devices.
• The Department of Justice and a bipartisan group of attorneys general from 38 states and territories, led by Colorado and Nebraska, filed similar but separate antitrust suits against Google in 2020."

MY COMMENT

Your government at work.

 

I really dont care since I see this stuff every day and know what is happening....but for those that dont.....read this:

Here are all the reasons why Monday’s major market wreck is happening

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/her...-mondays-major-market-wreck-is-happening.html

The one thing I dont see above is the impact of HIGH SPEED AI TRADING and Hedge funds.

 

EVERY stock in the RED for me today. NOT a surprise. I also got beat by the SP500 by 1.55% today.

We move on from here.

I am waiting for my PLTR earnings today. Do you think anyone will care?

Just a few minutes after the bell.....I actually see a number of my stocks in the green for after-hours trading. Not that I care one way or another.

 

PLTR earnings.

Palantir raises annual revenue forecast on AI strength

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-raises-annual-revenue-forecast-200650771.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Reuters) - Palantir Technologies raised its annual revenue forecast for the second time this year on Monday, the latest sign that the generative AI boom is driving up demand for its software services from governments and corporate clients.

The data analytics company also forecast third-quarter sales above estimates and reported its largest ever quarterly profit, in the April-to-June period, CEO Alex Karp said in a letter to shareholders.

Its AI platform, used to test, debug code and evaluate AI-related scenarios, has enabled Palantir to tap into the surging demand for services that help companies develop generative AI technology.

The company co-founded by billionaire Peter Thiel now expects annual revenue between $2.74 billion and $2.75 billion, compared with $2.68 billion to $2.69 billion expected earlier. The forecast is above the estimate of $2.70 billion, according to LSEG data.

It also raised its annual revenue expectation from U.S.-based companies by $11 million, to $672 million.

Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor told Reuters Palantir was driving growth by helping companies overcome "the huge bottleneck" between AI application prototypes and finished products that could be deployed to customers.

Palantir's shares, which have risen more than 39% in 2024, slipped nearly 9% last week after earnings reports from Big Tech firms such as Microsoft signaled that payoffs from huge AI bets could take longer to materialize than investors had initially hoped.

The company forecast third-quarter revenue between $697 million and $701 million, compared to analysts' average estimate of $679.1 million, according to LSEG data.

It has been working to reduce its dependence on government clients, which made up about 54% of total second-quarter sales.

"For the first time in our company's history, the trailing twelve-month revenue in our U.S. government business - including defense and intelligence agencies - surpassed $1 billion," CEO Karp said in a letter to shareholders.

Palantir, which works closely with governments to provide software to visualize army positions, among other services, recorded a 33% growth in revenue from companies in the reported quarter."

MY COMMENT

BUMMER....that the PLTR earnings are going to be totally lost in the carnage that is the markets today. A waste.

 

HERE is more on PLTR.

Palantir’s stock surges as ‘unrelenting’ AI demand fuels earnings beat

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...enting-ai-demand-fuels-earnings-beat-5ecd377a

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Palantir Technologies Inc. easily cleared revenue expectations for its latest quarter in what executives said was validation of the software company’s strategy.

While Chief Executive Alex Karp said some might have questioned whether Palantir’s
playbook would work, he told MarketWatch on Monday that, “on this day, you see the numbers and you say, oh, they’re right.”

Those numbers included second-quarter revenue of $678 million, up 27% from a year before and ahead of the $653 million consensus view.

Palantir’s stock was up 14% in Monday’s after-hours action.

Karp’s shareholder letter called out an “unrelenting wave of demand from customers for artificial-intelligence systems that go beyond the merely performative and academic.”

The company posted $307 million in commercial revenue, up 33% from a year before and just above the $306 million FactSet consensus. U.S. commercial revenue was up 55% from a year before.

The bigger top-line beat came in the government business, where revenue was up 23% from a year before to come in at $371 million. Analysts were modeling $349 million.

“Everyone underestimates what it takes to deploy enterprise software, AI software at scale,” Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor said. While other companies have found it “very easy to build prototypes,” Palantir is “actually deploying things in production” and relying on its two decades of experience doing so, he added.

Palantir’s revenue outlook for the third quarter calls for $697 million to $701 million, while analysts were expecting $681 million.

The company boosted its full-year revenue outlook to $2.742 billion to $2.750 billion, whereas it was previously for $2.677 billion to $2.689 billion. Palantir also now expects at least 47% growth in its U.S. commercial business for the full year, while its prior forecast called for 45% growth.

“What gives me confidence is what I’m hearing from our customers and how we are unique in our in the ways that we’re having meaningful, very real impacts for our customers,” Taylor said.

Palantir reported second-quarter net income of $134 million, or 6 cents a share, up from $28 million, or 1 cent a share, in the year-earlier period. After adjustments, Palantir earned 9 cents a share, while analysts were looking for 8 cents a share.

“The steady ascent of our profit reflects the unbridled demand for and
understanding of the capabilities of our software,” Karp said in a letter to shareholders."

MY COMMENT

YES....a HUGE earnings beat with GREAT guidance. GEE.....I might actually have a stock in the GREEN tomorrow.

Thanks for drawing my attention to this company....ZUKODANY.