As to NVDA. Nvidia stock falls 5%, chip stocks sink as Wall Street calls out 'tremendous opportunity' after sell-off https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...ous-opportunity-after-sell-off-201300330.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia (NVDA) stock fell more than 5% on Wednesday, erasing gains from early in the session as chip stocks led the way lower during a trading session that saw all three major indexes close in red figures. The sell-off in Nvidia and other chip names came despite a bullish note from Piper Sandler analysts published Wednesday, which pointed investors to a "tremendous opportunity" to buy some chip names following sector's recent sell-off. "Fundamentally, NVDA remains the strongest player in the AI accelerator space," wrote Piper Sandler's Harsh Kumar, highlighting the company's next-generation chip. "We also believe that strong tailwinds from the Blackwell architecture coming in October will continue to drive revenues well into 2025 as demand exceeds supply." "As such," the firm added, "we see tremendous opportunity in NVDA stock with the price off meaningfully from highs of $140." Piper has an Overweight rating and $140 price target on the stock. During Monday's market meltdown, The Information reported Nvidia's upcoming next-generation AI chips would be delayed by three months, potentially impacting its biggest customers like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. Subsequently, Nvidia issued a statement stating its next-generation Blackwell chip "production is on track to ramp" in the second half of the year. Along with Nvidia, Kumar said Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) remains a "Top Pick" for the firm as it gains share in the traditional server market amid struggles with incumbents like Intel. Intel (INTC) stock last Friday fell more than 28% following a poor quarterly report. Piper Sandler's team also sees an opportunity for AMD should Nvidia's chips turn out to be delayed. "We believe there is not a lot of truth to the NVDA chip delay, but if it is true, near-term this would bode well for AMD if NVDA is struggling with supply and/or timing of chips," wrote Kumar. AMD stock fell 1% on Wednesday. Last week, Nvidia jumped more than 12% following peer AMD's quarterly results showing Big Tech continues to spend on data center infrastructure, a promising sign for chip suppliers. Chip stocks have been volatile over the past few weeks as Big Tech names have led the market downturn. Since the start of July, the Philly Semiconductor Index is down almost 15%, a move that Piper said prompted it to revisit its coverage and look for "ideas that we believe remain well-positioned fundamentally." Along with Nvidia and AMD, the firm sees ON Semiconductor (ON) as well positioned in this environment. Early Wednesday, chip stocks attempted a rebound that was punctuated by the recent market meltdown that sent the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) into correction territory. Nvidia stock fell more than 6% on Monday as the "Magnificent Seven" stocks saw market cap losses of more than $650 billion during Monday's market plunge." MY COMMENT HERE is what I find interesting above: "We believe there is not a lot of truth to the NVDA chip delay......" I did some digging and have NOT found any confirmation from NVDA of a Blackwell design flaw. In fact I have not found any mention by NVDA of any such thing other than this statement: Nvidia rejects Blackwell chip delay claim https://www.mobileworldlive.com/ai-cloud/nvidia-rejects-blackwell-chip-delay-claim/ "Nvidia denied a report its next-generation AI chip is facing production delays stemming from a design problem, insisting in a statement production is on track to ramp in the second half, The Standard reported. The statement added “broad Blackwell sampling has started”, with the newspaper citing agencies. The Information reported over the weekend the chipmaker advised customers, including Microsoft, to prepare for delays of three months or longer in receiving deliveries of its upcoming Blackwell chips, with major shipments not likely until early 2025. Other customers expected to be impacted include Meta Platforms and Google. In March, Nvidia unveiled its flagship B200 Blackwell chip, claiming it’s the world’s most powerful chip for AI. The B200 Blackwell includes 208 billion transistors compared with 80 billion in the Hopper H100 chip unveiled in 2023. The company reports Q2 earnings on 28 August." The only other hint of a comment by NVDA came in the SMCI earnings questions: "NVIDIA, for its part, has refused to comment on any rumors for Blackwell's delay. In a statement provided to Wccftech, the firm stated, "Hopper demand is very strong, broad Blackwell sampling has started, and production is on track to ramp in 2H. Beyond that, we don't comment on rumors."" https://wccftech.com/super-micro-ce...ias-latest-blackwell-ai-gpus-purported-delay/ Personally....I dont know what upside there would be for NVDA to not disclose this sort of issue. A delay of 2-3 months is NOTHING. In searching....I have found NO DIRECT SOURCE confirming the rumor of a Blackwell design problem or delay. If this is BS.......it is clearly a "dirty trick" type of floated story.
Based on what I can find regarding the NVDA delay it seems to be TSMC's advanced packaging of the chips is not playing nicely with how NVDA designed the chips. There seems to be thermal warping and connection fracturing as a result. NVDA most likely has to redesign the chip so it is compatible with current packaging methodology. This article explains it well: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/nvidias-blackwell-reworked-shipment With the absolute breakneck evolution of these chips and their associated exotic packaging, hiccups like this are absolutely not worthy of freaking out. I am simply amazed at the pace this stuff is advancing. Of course the news doesn't understand this at all and will run around with their hair on fire for views.
Amen, brother. I'm staggered by the ratio of people who think any problem is a catastrophe in a tech project. Obviously, these people have never worked with technology. Nvidia will get this sorted and move forward smarter to more success in the future. Kudos to you for having great wisdom and thank you for sharing it with us.
It helps to be a tech nerd and not someone who places value in news outlets spoon-feeding me tech nonsense. Plenty of nerdy sites out there to get a real feel for what's going on in techie land.
I STILL say, regarding Blackwell.....I have seen NOTHING....confirming any sort of issue. The above article in "semianalysis"....cites NO sources for any of the content......other than "We believe". At this moment there is ZERO factual basis for all this speculation. It is all RUMOR at this point.....even though it is being reported as fact. I cant find ANY of the supposed impacted customers confirming this. Not to mention......a 2-3 month delay in a chip release is MEANINGLESS. Until I see confirmation from NVDA or actual sources being cited.....I simply dont believe this story. Until I see some source......with first hand knowledge..... confirming this....it is simply a HIT-JOB. No one has a source.....and....many of the articles are full of WEASEL WORDS......."may" be delayed.......is "Reported to be"...delayed......"could be" delayed. I also note that ALL these stories are now 2-3 days old....and there has been nothing since. That is not normal in the media for a story that is....TRUE. Until I see FACT.....I call BS.
While there may be some truth to the article I agree with W that the media will grab a thread and turn it into a blanket, then catch the blanket on fire and throw it at us. Just sitting here waiting out the idiocracy that is the current stock market.
OK....nice little rally so far today. The key will be what happens as we head to the close over the final 1-3 hours. I am sure there will be some profit taking.......later...... due to the current green.
The obvious reason for the rally today: Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/08/wee...cted-in-a-positive-sign-for-labor-market.html MY COMMENT Worthless and meaningless data as usual....but if it can trigger a rally....fine with me. I note that the Ten Year Yield jumped back close to 4% with this story.
As to the recent market action. Simply a BIG HISSY-FIT. I WANT MY RATE CUT....and I am going to yell, and stomp my feet, and hold my breath till I turn blue in the face, if I dont get my way. Basically the markets are a BIG CRYBABY. A bunch of spoiled brats. That is the so called "professionals". WAH....WAH....WAH....we lost our little carry-trade. Of course these.....SPECULATORS....are too STUPID to snap up shares in all the great companies that are down right now and hold them for a while. It is all about SPECULATIVE TRADING.....much of it AI NEWS HEADLINE SPEED TRADING. As a long term investor I just IGNORE it all.
I am however.....VERY HAPPY....that my retirement income is totally divorced from the markets and my stock market money. ALL of my retirement income is covered by Social Security and my Income Annuities. Of course this is intentional. I want to be able to be fully invested all the time with my stock market money.....for the long term.... and I dont want my income to be captive to the up and down insanity of the short term stock markets. it is also a big help that I have no debt and a fully paid off house.
Good news for owners of PLTR....especially on top of the BIG EARNINGS BEAT and the jump the stock had as a result. Palantir jumps on Microsoft partnership to sell AI to U.S. defense, intel agencies https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/08/pal...oft-partnership-to-sell-ai-to-us-defense.html Key Information Company shares are currently up by 8.17% ......The company announced a partnership with Microsoft. The deal involves selling cloud, analytics and AI capabilities to U.S. defense and intelligence communities. Palantir got 54% of its revenue from government in the second quarter.
A nice BOOMING market today. All the averages very well into the green. SO....was my account....with a BIG FAT gain today. I also beat the SP500 by 1.38%. My stocks today.....PLTR +11.25%.....NVDA +6.13%....COST + 3.59%....my other six stocks ranged from +1.07% to +1.94%. The last three market days have been good in spite of the FADE late yesterday. It appears that we have now moved on. YES.....I dare to say it.....so much for the RECESSION....BS.
The general market end today. Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq surge as wild week on Wall Street continues https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-week-on-wall-street-continues-160441243.html S&P 500 notches its best day since 2022 as Wall Street claws its way back from Monday’s rout: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
I think with competition in this area being what it is and with NVDA being, well, NVDA, I do not think people are going to shout from the rooftops what the issue is. There is a delay. Sources are saying it is due to an design flaw, but only one that sets the launch back 2-3 months. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on "semianalysis" being pretty much correct due to the delay length and the transition to the newer packaging method at TSMC. But you are right, it is conjecture based on what sources have offered and subject to being factually off or incorrect.
Looks like late 2024 and 2025 might be a good time to buy that house. Although the lower rates go for mortgages and the more buyers pour into the markets the more likely we are to see rapidly rising prices and multiple offer battles. Mortgage rates plunge to lowest level in over a year The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.47% from 6.73% last week, according to Freddie Mac. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-plunge-to-lowest-level-in-over-a-year-160032164.html MY COMMENT Not bad......6.47%......plus..... we are right on the cusp of rate cuts by the FED and a drop in the Ten Year Treasury and mortgage rates. My target rate for a flood of buyers entering the market and driving prices up is 6%. I see mortgages in the range of 5% to 6% as the place where buyers bite the bullet and enter the markets. If enough buyers come into the markets they WILL push up home values and in some hot markets will trigger bidding battles.
Ok......Friday will determine my end result this week. We have had a CRAZY week with the markets. Last Friday at the close my entire account was at +33.60% year to date. As of the close today my entire account is at +32.10% year to date. So after all the PANIC, DRAMA, TURMOIL, RECESSION BS, etc, etc, etc.......I am in position to end the week with little to no change.....depending on the markets tomorrow. Who knows.......the markets might even be crazy enough to give me a gain for the week.
I learned about the RULE OF 72"s long ago. It was one of the most important discoveries that I made in my investing life. Knowing this information gave me a view of the future and a HUGE motivational tool to save and invest NOW for the gains that I would see in the future. Knowing and mentally using this rule often is like an investing.....time machine. The Rule of 72: How to Double Your Money in 7 Years The rule of 72 is a shortcut to estimate how long it will take you to double your money. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/the-rule-of-72 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Wouldn't it be great if you could quickly determine how much your savings could be worth in the future? Or how much you need to earn on your savings to reach a goal? It's easy to set a savings goal but far less easy to know if you'll reach it. You could say "I want to have $1 million by age 65," but how do you know if you're saving enough to reach that goal? Luckily, there is a shortcut to estimate how much your savings could be worth in the future by using the rule of 72, and the only math required is basic division. What Is the Rule of 72? The rule of 72 is a shortcut investors can use to determine how long it will take their investment to double based on a fixed annual rate of return. All you do is divide 72 by the fixed rate of return to get the number of years it will take for your initial investment to double. For example, if your investment earns 6% per year on average, you would take 72 divided by 6 to determine that it will take 12 years for your money to double. Based on the above, you would need to earn 10% per year to double your money in a little over seven years. The rule of 72 is "one of the simplest yet most powerful concepts in investment mathematics," says Brian McGraw, a senior wealth advisor at Hightower Wealth Advisors St. Louis. It lets you "quickly assess the potential of various investment opportunities without getting bogged down in complicated formulas." How to Use the Rule of 72 "The rule of 72 can be used as an approximate guide to help you plan for specific financial goals that you'd like to achieve in the future," says Amy Sabin, a wealth manager and managing director at Steward Partners. You can apply the rule of 72 to any investment size or rate of return and can even use it to reverse engineer how much you need to invest and at what rate of return to reach a given goal. For example, if your goal is $1 million by age 65 and you are 35 currently, you know you have 30 years to reach that goal. Based on the rule of 72, you'd need to earn only 2.4% to double your money in 30 years. The equation would be 72/R = 30. R is the rate of return. Solving for R gives you 2.4. So if you have $500,000 saved now, you can afford to invest it fairly conservatively for a 2.4% rate of return and still reach your $1 million goal in 30 years without making any other contributions. "The real value of the rule will show how important it is to start saving earlier," says Steve Azoury, a chartered financial consultant and owner of Azoury Financial. "Starting to save at age 22 versus age 29 could increase your assets twofold." The question is, he says: How many doubling periods will you have in your life? The answer can reveal just how aggressively you need to invest to reach your goals." MY COMMENT This little device is the greatest tool for any investor. It allows you to quickly see the future of your money based on your typical return. It allows you to see that smaller amounts of money can grow to BIG amounts of money....great motivation. For example if you have $10,000 and have it in the SP500 and expect a total return of an average of 10%....the rule tells you that you will double that money every 7.2 years. So in 7.2 years you will have $20,000. In 14.4 years you will have $40,000. In 21.6 years you will have $80,000. In 28.8 years you will have $160,000. If you know the above......are you going to blow that $10,000 on buying something today....knowing that in your future that will be $160,000? As mentioned above you can use the rule to calculate what return you need to achieve your goals and ivnest accordingly. It simply shows you the......long term....POWER OF COMPOUNDING. This simple devise is in my view....the most important investment tool that I know and use. Personally with my typical results I actually expect to double my money every 5-6 years. BUT.....my investing goal is to double my money every 7.2 years.....an average long term return of 10%. this rule and what it helps people to visualize is the basis of ALL investing......THE POWER OF COMPOUNDING.
The other MOST IMPORTANT investing device that I learned long ago....about 1978....is the mantra......PAY YOURSELF FIRST. It changed how I thought about bills and finances and saving. Does this stuff seem simple? Yes. Is it critical to successful investing....yes. It is the simple habits and behavior that determines success in investing when applied over a long time.
