I have no idea why we should have to pay for the FED to party with the ELITES in Jackson Hole during peak season......when they meet this month. I know it goes back to Paul Volker wanting to go there for the fly fishing. They should have to simply hold every meeting in some drab, grey, bureaucratic office building in Washington DC. Perhaps they would not be as eager to meet as often.
This is why they are totally out of touch....besides hanging out with all the ELITES all the time....the data they rely on is WORTHLESS. Fed confronts up to a million US jobs vanishing in revision https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-confronts-million-us-jobs-100000224.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) — US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month. While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million. There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year. Such figures also have the potential of shaping the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at week’s end in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are trying to gain insight as to when and how much the central bank will start lowering interest rates as inflation and the job market cool. “A large negative revision would indicate that the strength of hiring was already fading before this past April,” Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner said in a note last week. That would make “risks to the full employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate more salient amid widespread softening in other labor market data.” Once a year, the BLS benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all US jobs. The release of the latest QCEW report in June already hinted at weaker payroll gains last year. As it stands now, the BLS data show the economy added 2.9 million jobs in the 12 months through March 2024, or an average of 242,000 per month. Even if the total revision is as high as a million, monthly job gains would average around 158,000 — still a healthy pace of hiring but a moderation from the post-pandemic peak. Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC, is optimistic the revision will end up toward the smaller end of the range of estimates, in part because QCEW data tend to be marked higher due to reporting lags. Labor risks The preliminary revision may reignite the debate over whether the slowdown in the labor market risks a more abrupt downshift in the economy. Employers substantially scaled back hiring in July and the unemployment rate rose for a fourth straight month. While that contributed to a $6.4 trillion global market selloff, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has fully recovered. “Markets, having recently experienced a growth scare that led to concerns that the Fed is behind the curve, will be monitoring Wednesday’s release of the benchmark revision to see if the market’s initial reaction was, in fact, correct,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. While other employment indicators have since reassured markets that the job market is on solid footing, policymakers are still highly expected to start lowering borrowing costs in September. Powell and his colleagues have recently said they’re focusing more on the labor side of their dual mandate, and he’ll take the benchmark revisions into account in his Friday speech at the Fed’s annual symposium. “While the payroll revisions due Wednesday have long been anticipated by the Fed, this will frame the atmospherics and will underline that the picture of strength in payrolls is not as vigorous as it had appeared in real time,” Evercore ISI analysts Krishna Guha and Marco Casiraghi said in a note Monday. The government’s preliminary benchmark projection will be followed by final revisions that are incorporated into the January employment report to be released in February. Birth-death model For most of the recent years, monthly payroll data have been stronger than the QCEW figures. Some economists attribute that in part to the so-called birth-death model — an adjustment the BLS makes to the data to account for the net number of businesses opening and closing, but that might be off in the post-pandemic world. What Bloomberg Economics Says... “With the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ ‘birth-death model’ still overstating employment from the net creation of new firms, we think the underlying pace of monthly job growth is likely less than 100k — below the pace consistent with a steady unemployment rate. We expect the unemployment rate to reach 4.5% by year-end.” — Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger and Estelle Ou Ronnie Walker at Goldman Sachs says the QCEW figures are likely to overstate the moderation in employment growth because they will strip out up to half a million unauthorized immigrants that were included in the initial estimates. “Since the QCEW is based on unemployment insurance records, it likely largely excludes unauthorized immigrants, who we believe have contributed strongly to employment growth over the last couple of years,” Walker wrote last week." MY COMMENT They manipulate this data and take so long to make the "revisions" that no one ever sees or knows about the final data. It is simply a CORRUPT system. Fortunately the stock markets know about these little games and mostly dont care.
Another good example to ignore most of what we see/read in regard to these type of reports. So many (markets included) react to these initial reports....and then we are told it is simply not what it seems or basically flat out wrong.
A BORING market today. I will call it CONSOLIDATION of the recent gains. With NVDA down I am headed for a......mild.... red day today. I also have PLTR and CMG in the red. ALL my other stocks are green at this moment. Of course it is actually a good thing for the markets to pause once in a while and consolidate recent gains.
A RED day for me today.....but....still a good day. I had six of nine stocks green. My down stocks were NVDA, CMG, and PLTR. What was nice is that two of my three down stocks are my "junior positions"....CMG and PLTR. So I had a good amount of money in stocks today that were UP. I ended up with a mild-to-medium loss for the day I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.48%.
If you care about the day in....hindsight....here you go. Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq snap 8-day winning streak as focus turns to Jackson Hole https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...as-focus-turns-to-jackson-hole-200157199.html All in all....in spite of being red today.....I consider it a good start to the week. ALL my big cap tech except NVDA was green. I also consider that the "PROBABILITY" this week is in favor of a good bounce from the FED commentary. We are heading to NVDA earnings on the 28th......which I expect to be KILLER.....so there will be some erratic positioning in NVDA this week. BUT.....I also expect there is a good "probability" that NVDA will be nicely green for the week. In addition I have made back just about all the money that I lost in my account during the RIDICULOUSNESS of the past 3-4 weeks especially the "recession" fear mongering. I expect to have a good legitimate......easy..... shot at a new ALL TIME HIGH over the next one to two weeks.
HERE are the latest EARNINGS data. EARNINGS INSIGHT https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources Section/Research Desk/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_081624.pdf Key Data: • Earnings: Q2 2024.......93% of the SP500 reporting...... 79% of S&P 500 positive EPS surprise......60% reported a positive revenue surprise. • Earnings Growth: The earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 10.9%. The highest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. • Guidance: 48 S&P 500 companies, negative EPS guidance.......41 S&P 500 companies positive EPS guidance. • Valuation: Forward 12-month P/E ratio, 21.0. Above the 5-year average and above the 10-year average. We have had a very GOOD earnings season this time around. NVDA will hopefully be the icing on the cake next week. We are pushing toward the end of August with extremely large.....abnormal.... gains intact.
A recent theme in the markets.....which I believe will continue for the rest of this year and into next year. Nvidia helped the stock market storm back, but this summer’s broadening theme never went away https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...oadening-theme-never-went-away-163945609.html
I like this little article. Jackson Hole Preview: Beautiful Backdrop for a Bore All eyes will be on Fed head Jerome Powell Friday morning. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...on-hole-preview-beautiful-backdrop-for-a-bore (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "It is good to be transparent, so here is a confession: We will be watching this weekend’s central banking conference in Jackson Hole like hawks … to see who looks most at-ease in Wranglers, boots and a plaid utility shirt. And we will of course review Fed head Jerome Powell’s speech. But, unlike so many who think this is absolutely crucial to markets, we expect a pretty uneventful get together. While Fed heads have occasionally used Jackson Hole to make big pronouncements, this is the exception, not the rule. Most of the time, the symposium is boring and the comments are vanilla oatmeal, and we think investors’ time is better spent elsewhere. Jackson Hole looms large for a few reasons. One, it is pretty! Who doesn’t love a backdrop of tall mountains and wide-open spaces, with the tinge of America’s rugged west? Two, it is like watching global policymakers at summer camp, one of the rare times they are all in the same place with a chance to catch up properly, and it is fun using the pictures for funny caption contests. Three, the investing and economics world is obsessed with monetary policy. People think short-term interest rates are the be-all, end-all, with markets hinging on what the Fed and its international friends do next. And four, it actually was kind of a big deal in 2010, when former Fed head Ben Bernanke hinted strongly at a second round of quantitative easing (QE2) there. And in 2020, when Powell unveiled the Fed’s new inflation targeting approach at the virtual version. But for the most part, the Fed head’s speech is pretty ho-hum. This year, Powell’s topic is the state of the US economy. Aka, the same darned thing he expounds upon in every post-meeting press conference. But this time, everyone is on tenterhooks to see if he drops hints about the Fed’s September meeting. People also want to see if the much-discussed July jobs report—and its triggering of former Fed economist Claudia Sahm’s recession indicator—has diminished the Fed’s view and made a -0.50 percentage point cut likelier than the -0.25 ppt cut markets have seemingly penciled in. They want hints as to whether the market’s freakout after the Bank of Japan’s tiny July 31 rate hike has changed the Fed’s tactics. Perhaps we will get some of this. Or all of this. Or none of it. Powell surely knows an entire industry will hang on his every word, which could incentivize discretion and what former Fed head Alan Greenspan would characterize as mumbling with great incoherence—aka, indecipherable Fedspeak. The Fed and other central banks took a lot of incoming in recent years for defying their own forward guidance, basically saying one thing and doing another. With nearly a month between Jackson Hole and the Fed’s September 17 – 18 meeting, and with a lot of data set to come out between now and then, we could see the Fed head not wanting to paint himself into a corner. We can’t help but smell a whiff of recency bias in all of the frenzy. When markets pulled back sharply after the BoJ’s move and the July jobs report, there was a lot of talk about the Fed being behind the 8-ball. Headlines warned recession was imminent if the Fed didn’t act, and even if it did, it may be too little, too late. Some wondered whether an emergency meeting could or should be in the cards. But the freakout was short lived, and as we write, markets are back within striking distance of July 16’s high. Recession fears have eased in the wake of several fine data reports. And it all happened without a single rate cut, showing how silly the initial reaction was. Clinging to Jackson Hole as a rate-cut harbinger seems like a last-ditch attempt to keep the Fed meaningful. Even if Powell does drop a strong hint, we wouldn’t read much into it. Again, there is a lot of new data for our data-dependent Fed to parse between now and then. Plus, Powell is just one vote. Consider his British counterpart, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, who will be speaking later Friday. Some pundits hold out hope that he, too, will hint at future policy, but his official topic is a retrospective of the BoE’s recent actions and their impact. We suspect this is because the BoE’s August 1 rate cut was a 5 – 4 decision that almost didn’t happen. How can you give crystal-clear forward guidance when you are one vote on a committee of people with their own disparate views and opinions of data and correct policy? Even with the Keynesian groupthink that has infected central banks lately, it is impossible. Again, we aren’t dismissing the possibility Powell says something concrete, meaningful and useful. But rather than hanging on everything he says and diagramming sentences like you are back in middle school English class, we think you are fine skipping to the highlights and dialing down the importance. Neither stocks nor the economy hinge on rates, as the last 22-plus months since this bull market began demonstrate." MY COMMENT This FED stuff will be high drama to the media. For investors.....who cares. the FED has no real power at this point. The hikes are done. Everyone knows that rate cuts are coming some time over the next 1-3 months.
The retail story of the day. Target cut prices on 5,000 products. Now it's back with a big earnings beat. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/targ...-back-with-a-big-earnings-beat-103112980.html WMT is also doing very nicely.....actually better than Target. The consumer is just fine.....but....business has to provide VALUE to capture the dollars. The fast food business figured this out and now retail is also jumping on board the price cut wagon.
We will get the FED minutes later today. Yes....more hindsight information. We are having a good early market today with all the big averages in the green. We need to build on this into the day. Stocks tick higher as Wall Street awaits Fed minutes: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose slightly Wednesday as traders looked ahead to minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting — seeking further insight into the prospect of an interest rate cut. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 78 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each also advanced 0.2%. Target jumped more than 15% after reporting earnings for the fiscal second quarter that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. But fellow retailer Macy’s dropped more than 12% on a lowered full-year sales forecast. The Fed minutes are slated for release at 2 p.m. ET. The central bank kept rates unchanged at its last meeting but said it has seen progress in lowering inflation. Investors will look for more clues on future policy moves — especially in September — as market participants remain all but certain of a loosening cycle beginning in the near future. Traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut next month, per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. To be sure, the Street is split over how big the reduction will be. Stocks are coming off a losing session, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping their longest winning streaks since late 2023. That was just the latest action in a choppy month for equities. A weak U.S. jobs report and an interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan sparked a global sell-off on Aug. 5. But equities have since bounced back the market turmoil, with strong retail sales and a weaker-than-expected inflation report helping alleviate recession fears last week. For reference, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both higher by more than 1% compared with where they started August. Along with minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, Wall Street anxiously awaits commentary from central bank leader Jerome Powell. The Fed chair is expected to deliver remarks Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where he could provide further clues into the Fed’s next rate decision at its September gathering. “To us, the key will be Chair Powell’s tone, which we expect to lean dovish,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. “Simply put, inflation continues to trend towards the 2% target seemingly at a rate exceeding consensus. Combine this with signs that the labor market is softening and one gets the sense that there is little need to retain a hawkish stance.”" MY COMMENT The usual short term "stuff". None of this will be relevant to the long term. It will simply be long forgotten "stuff" and meaningless. We are finishing up a VERY GOOD earnings season....that is what counts. After all, owning a stock or a basket of stocks is all about the performance of that business.
There is little to no actual focus on much that investors should care about this week. The media is full of politics. Even the business TV shows are dominated by it. I simply refuse to watch any of it and ignore it all. It is a waste of my time as an investor. I have no control over any of it other than my single vote. Whatever happens in November.....I have to live with the result as a long term investor. The results WILL matter to business....in some cases significantly.....but I have to trust management of the companies that I own to deal with whatever happens......and move forward in the environment hey are forced to live in.
I note that this thread started in October of 2018. We have now reached the point where this thread is an ACTUAL history of long term investing......SIX YEARS. I dont think you could find a more challenging time to be an investor than the past six years......the PANDEMIC....the economic shut-down.....a very nasty BEAR MARKET......the advent of AI......the MEME investing....etc, etc, etc. YET.....in the end....starting from October of 2018 to now......the gains for investors that hung in there and kept the faith have been GREAT. So.......I remain fully invested for the long term as usual. I remain fully committed to my BIG CAP.....ICONIC COMPANY..... investing style....that I have used for the past 55+ years.
I am having a good day today.....seven of nine stocks GREEN. My two red stocks are MSFT and GOOGL. BOTH are slight losses with good potential to turn green over the course of the day. NOTHING for me to do but wait and watch.
Here is the revision I was talking about a few days ago. Our economic data is totally worthless. Government in action. Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/non...sed-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less than initially reported. The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of this year. The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. The numbers are routinely revised each month, but the BLS does a broader revision each year when it gets the results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported numbers. Even with the revisions, job creation during the period stood at more than 2 million, but the report could be seen as an indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be. At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less. Other areas revised lower included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000) and trade, transportation and utilities (-104,000). Within the trade category, retail trade numbers were cut by 129,000. A few sectors saw upward revisions, including private education and health services (87,000), transportation and warehousing (56,400) and other services (21,000). Government jobs were little changed after the revisions, picking up just 1,000. Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023. There have been concerns, though, that the labor market is starting to weaken, with the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% representing a 0.8 percentage point gain from the 12-month low and triggering a historically accurate measure known as the Sahm Rule that indicates an economy in recession. However, much of the gain in the unemployment rate has been attributed to an increase in people returning to the workforce rather than a pronounced surge in layoffs. Federal Reserve officials nonetheless are watching the jobs situation closely and are expected to approve their first interest rate cut in four years when they next meet in September. Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a much-anticipated policy speech Friday at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that could lay the groundwork for easier monetary policy ahead." MY COMMENT Many areas of private business revised LOWER. The one area you dont see any lowering of the result....government jobs. YES.......the FED is using this data.....to indulge their FANTASY that they can control the economy. Actually.....the data is worthless as is the belief that the FED can control the economy.
I am still doing well today....although I am now six green and three red. Most importantly for me NVDA is green since it dominates my portfolio. We seem to have survived the revised jobs numbers and the FED minutes release. Fed minutes point to ‘likely’ rate cut coming in September https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/fed-minutes-july-2024.html THE CRUX OF THIS ARTICLE: KEY INFORMATION “The vast majority” of the FED in the most recent meeting “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting,” according to the minutes. The markets are massively pricing in a September cut, this would be the first of what will probably be many cuts this year and next.
A nice medium level gain for me today. Nice to be back in the GREEN today. I had six stocks green and three red. The red were....AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL......BUMMER for the big cap tech. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.20%. With the FED minutes and the employment data revisions out of the way.....there is really nothing in the way of the markets for the rest of the week....unless they just decide to FREAK OUT. I dont expect anything new....but....Powell will speak from Jackson Hole on Friday.
I was out of town and busy last Friday so I did not report my portfolio year to date performance. I just ran the number a minute ago for my entire portfolio as of the close today........YTD......+46.36%. That is a significant come-back from the little "correction that we went thorough for about 3-4 weeks. I believe this is one of the highest YTD gains I have had in many years at this point in the year with basically.....FOUR months to go. It would be great to hang on and finish big this year. At least I now am back to having a good cushion......if needed.....for any market weakness over the next four months.
MORE good news for rate cuts happening soon. US jobless claims rise in latest week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-jobless-claims-rise-latest-123819134.html "The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose in the latest week, but the level still suggested a gradual cooling of the labor market remains intact." MY COMMENT This data is unreliable garbage.....but....it is what the FED wants to see. Be aware that when I post this "stuff" it is not something that I rely on in the slightest as an investor. It is simply to indicate the near future for rate cuts......by the FED. Even the coming rate cuts are NOT something that I rely on or use as an investor. It is simply short term drama/trash. As a REAL investor.....it is all about business fundamentals and earnings.
