The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    When things get tough......the tough....run and hide.

    That is what I will be doing later this week and next week. I will be OUT OF TOUCH on here starting this Thursday through next Thursday. I might have a little time to post a few times.....but will be mostly AWOL and MIA.

    SO.....as usual....I will depend on all of you....to hold up the markets on those days and protect my gains.
     
  2. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I seen some related articles cropping up over the weekend about the September stuff too. There is really no end to the supply of "stuff" out there...the media has a limitless supply of things to cast doubt and fear upon.

    I figure if the market decides to drop back some during this month, I'll just pick up more shares at a better price.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    In terms of the FED....this would have been considered good news a few weeks ago......NOW.....more ammunition for the fear-mongers. They never give up....good news is bad news.....bad news is bad news.....no news is bad news. Earnings....are always bad news.

    Basically the short term markets are now simply.....CRAZY......and are always bad news..

    Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/03/wea...es-raise-specter-of-us-economic-slowdown.html

    MY COMMENT

    Is there anyone on here that invests based on........"SPECTERS"? A new form of trading......SPECTER TRADING.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So....the question is.....what is the logical reason for the DROP today?

    Personally I dont see any reason at all. AND....that is probably worse than if there was a reason. It tells me that the short term is now totally random and at the mercy of the short term AI SPEED TRADING. It means we can expect to see these sorts of big market drops.....for no particular reason....often, going forward. It is a new market....at least for the short term. There is no reason to it at all.

    We have seen this happen many times over the past four months. It is OBVIOUSLY......something....manipulating and snow-balling the markets. Not a good sign for the future of the market system.

    The last time this happened this bad was August 5th.

    I do NOT buy in the slightest that this is a reaction to economic data. It is clearly AI TRADING on a massive level....trading the headlines and news stories......and creating...the very market conditions they are trading. In my personal opinion........I might call this.....(allegedly)....market manipulation on a massive scale never seen before.

    This is NOT little retail investors selling the markets. It is a big hit on the largest and safest companies in the world as shown by the DROP in the SP500 today and the BIG CAP tech companies today.

    The worst thing any small investor can do is sell into this sort of event. YOU simply have to wait it out and take the pain.

    Dow slides 600 points, Nasdaq loses 3% as selling to start September intensifies: Live updates

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
     
    #21304 WXYZ, Sep 3, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2024
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND....it looks like it is going to be a very NASTY last 25 minutes in the markets today......as this little dip is escalating into the close.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NVDA.....now down by just under 10%. This one day market has totally wiped out their good earnings report. Outside of this one stock the general markets are also wiping out the recent good earnings in a single day.
     
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  7. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Huge market drop on a completely uneventful day. NOTHING is going on today. It's not like all the retail investors decided it's September and we need to pull all our money out... but the computers did! Not much else to do but sit tight and do nothing. A 10% drop in a single day for NVDA appears to be a little over blown.
     
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That last sentence above is the understatement of the century TireSmoke.
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I had ALL nine stocks in the RED today. I also got beat by the SP500 by 3.09% today.

    In terms of the total in my two largest accounts.....down by multiple six figures.....in a single day. At least that might make others feel better today.

    My loss in my nine individual stocks ranged from a low of 1.02% in one stock to a high of 9.53% in the stock with the greatest loss....NVDA. All the others were scattered between.

    Nothing like a short holiday week with nothing going on.
     
  10. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    I too shall chalk up today as a loss. I wonder if we get members only jackets for this club nobody want's to be in.
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NOW........cue the canned RECESSION stories again.
     
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  12. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    I hope they kick it some more. I'm sure I can find some change in between the couch cushions to add to my position :D
     
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  13. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    @roadtonowhere08 Chances are pretty high you will get your wish. Looks like the algos will push this back into the 90's, shake out as much retail as they can then start running the price up again. This is common in chip stocks, AMD was the KING of this.
     
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  14. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of silly headlines. I noticed yesterday one noted "Stocks have worst day since August." That took a real sharp writer to come up with that one. I mean, the research and time it took to produce it must have been just overwhelming. :)
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Good one Smokie.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The down market today.....compliments of "our government".......and their pursuit of our great companies for antitrust.

    The timing of all this leads me to suspect that....."some people"....had illegal advance notice yesterday. Government based......insider trading.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO.......gold is not an option....even with the drop yesterday.

    A $1 Million Gold Bar Still Pales Next to Stocks
    Some points to consider carefully before adding gold to your portfolio.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...1-million-gold-bar-still-pales-next-to-stocks

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Potentially incoming rate cuts. Regional conflicts apparently heating up. Lingering inflation worries. To conventional wisdom, that all seems to make gold a shiny and attractive asset. And, this year, it is up 20.7% versus the S&P 500’s 19.0%, piercing $2,500—a big, round number that makes a gold bar (400 troy ounces) worth $1 million, an even bigger, rounder number. But in our view, the case for owning gold is a lot weaker than this suggests.

    It seems to us there are a variety of competing theories about what makes gold rise. One popular notion: Gold is an inflation hedge.
    But with inflation fading, that isn’t the main reason pundits tout to own gold today. Rather, it is because fading inflation increases the likelihood of rate cuts, making cash yields less attractive versus no-yield gold. But wait: This outright conflicts with the gold-inflation theory, since central banks often hike rates in inflationary times, as we just saw these past few years. (And it doesn’t stand up to historical review, either.)

    Another is that gold is a safe haven when war looms—and rages. But then why are stocks up? They have been in a bull market since October 2022, even as the Russia-Ukraine War persisted (expanding into Russian territory recently) and the Israel-Hamas War broke out, threatening to broaden in the Middle East. Arguing this is propelling gold presumes the market for it is efficient while stocks ignore information leading almost every global newspaper. This doesn’t make much sense, in our view.

    These inherently contradictory theses to own gold underscore a reality for would-be investors. While there are short-term stretches when gold allegedly “works”—sometimes corresponding to high inflation, low rates, war or some combination thereof—there is no consistency.

    As Exhibit 1 shows, gold’s outperformance comes in bursts. Yes, gold shined in the late 1970s and early 1980s amid double-digit inflation—likely cementing its reputation—but after peaking in January 1980, it didn’t regain the mark until January 2008, 28 years later. Falling rates and several wars in the meantime didn’t seem to help. Prices overall rose throughout that span. Gold’s 2001 – 2011 run did correspond with overall falling rates and the War on Terrorism (with tame inflation). But while low rates and Middle Eastern conflicts (the “Arab Spring”) extended past 2011, gold’s rise didn’t. It didn’t regain those levels until 2020, before falling back once again. It took another three years to surpass that 2020 peak. During the interim, notice gold’s lull occurred as Europe’s biggest war since WWII began in February 2022 and US inflation spiked to 9.1% y/y that June (though rates were beginning to rise then).[ii]

    Exhibit 1: If You Had Bought Stocks Instead of a Gold Bar



    [​IMG]
    Source: Global Financial Data, Inc. and FactSet, as of 8/28/2025. S&P 500 total return and gold price per troy ounce, 12/31/1974 – 8/27/2024. Y-axis in base-10 logarithmic scale, which plots the same-sized percentage moves in equal increments graphically.

    Like any commodity or product, gold prices are driven by supply and demand. Gold’s supply is famously limited, but given its few industrial uses, demand mostly swings on sentiment—buyers’ moods. Whether that mood hinges on inflation, geopolitics, holiday shopping, ETF demand or rates is anyone’s guess day by day. Lacking a material commercial application tied to the business cycle, demand shifts largely whichever way the sentiment winds blow.

    For those holding gold over the long haul, the shiny metal has historically been a shiny, yellow anchor. $74,600 bought you a bar of gold on December 31, 1974, when President Ford legalized ownership.[iii] That is now $1 million, as recent headlines tout. But that $74,600 invested in the S&P 500 in 1974 with dividends reinvested? It would be $24 million now. Juuuuuust a bit left on the table. Turns out stocks are a much better inflation hedge. And they rise far more consistently. In the 49 calendar years since 1975, stocks were up in 40.[iv] Gold? Only 30.[v]

    As for an asset that cushions against short-term volatility, bonds are much steadier—and more reliable. That doesn’t mean bonds don’t experience some volatility, but it is generally far less than stocks’—or gold’s. Typically, you would expect higher returns to pair with higher volatility and vice versa. Cumulative annualized returns for the S&P 500 are 12.3%, 5.3% for gold and 6.5% for benchmark US 10-year government bonds since 1974.[vi]

    But not only are bonds’ long-term returns higher than gold’s, they wiggle a lot less, which we can quantify using standard deviation—the degree of fluctuation around the average annual return. Bonds’ standard deviation is 10.0%, meaning over any 12-month timeframe, about 68% of bond returns’ observations were within plus or minus 10.0 percentage points of its annual average return.[vii] Meanwhile, stocks’ standard deviation is 16.2% and gold’s 23.9%.[viii] In our view, gold’s returns don’t sufficiently account for the volatility risk.

    Hence, to us, gold is a timing play. And with all the conflicting narratives around gold, it is difficult to know why it is doing what it is at any given time. In our experience, without understanding why something is happening, it is awfully hard to know when it may recur in the future."

    MY COMMENT

    I basically ONLY bolded a single paragraph in the middle of the article. It says it all.........GOLD $1,000,000.......SP500 $24,000,000.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    REALITY.....same as yesterday.....NOTHING......happening today other than a CRAZY market sell off.

    It is just a waste of time to follow or think about the markets today.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another slight bit of good news today. The Ten Year Yield......3.785%.
     

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