The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    The breaking news bright red tickers after the market close.:rofl: About a 1.73% drop in the SP 500. I wonder if the financial press even cares how stupid they look. And then when they start talking…it basically removes any doubt.
    I get that almost all media is full entertainment now days. Wouldn’t you like to have some truth serum to dose them with to see how they truly invest. Although, I could see many of them doing dumb things.
     
  2. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Let's see if this week is any better than last. Pretty irrational times for sure but this is the market we have so I guess we just deal with it.
     
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  3. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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  4. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    AAPL is set to announce the iPhone 16, Apple watches update, and other gadgets today. AAPL is currently sitting in the red today and sits at
    +18.19% YTD.

    AAPL was oddly enough kind of a laggard earlier in the year and then announced their AI play with Apple Intelligence. The stock finally came around and started to move up after that. It will be interesting to see if todays event will push it higher or lack any further enthusiasm.
     
  5. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    I own APPL through my VGT etf. The stock has been lack luster for sure but I think it's a solid stock to have in a holding for the long term. I am honestly surprised they aren't fairing better yet again they pretty much completely neglected riding the AI sensation wave. Short term mistake but may prove better in the long term? Doubtful but I won't rule it out.
     
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  6. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. AAPL has always seemed to "play" things somewhat close to the vest and really didn't get on the hype train early, as you mentioned. They are also battling/dealing with some of the China stuff in sales and Huawei.

    They have been such a dominant company for so long and with that comes a lot of work to stay on top and innovate....and adapt to the everchanging landscape.
     
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  7. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Not a bad start to the week. Of course, who knows what the rest of the week holds. I'm sure the financial media will tell us everything we need to know.

    Looks like AAPL clawed back slightly to the green after spending most of the day down. PLTR continued to do well by +14.05%.
     
  8. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Well look at that… just a little over a month goes by since I made that statement and… boom - 52 week high… give it a day or two and we’ll be at an ATH with this company.
     
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  9. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Two positive days in a row for NVDA. Not like it gained any sizable ground from the double digit drop but just a sign that the bottom may be in or at least close. I think I'm ready for it to move back up.
     
  10. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    And the boss…… Adondè?
     
  11. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    When the boss is at bay, the mice shall play! If anything indicates how special W is and how he consistently provides us with good posts with substance is how boring this thread is when he is absent! Kind of like a bunch of employees milling about waiting for instruction! All I have is the NVDA doom and gloom articles after they crushed their ER fear mongering it being the beginning of the end and they will never grow again. Garbage. Hold and do nothing. I would not be surprised if we see another ATH by end of the year. If nothing else this is a good introduction to my friend who just started buying individual stocks. Last time we talked he said he plans on adding more monthly. I just told him whenever he feels bad, add a zero to it and that what someone else is experiencing... Down $90, well there is someone out there down $900 and another $9,000.... and some of us on here more, alot more ;).
     
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  12. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Nice turnaround from where the markets started today it appears. Maybe we can build on it tomorrow too.

    What we really need in this thread….is Emmett on those darn phones.:)
     
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  13. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Emmet's day job is going too well.... gets a promotion and he's too busy to hang out with us lazy long term sit and do nothing types.
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL DONE....with the markets this week people. Keep up the good work. This will be my single post today as I am tied up for another day or two.

    I HOPE this will finally put all the BLACKWELL media IDIOCY to bed.......but knowing the stupidity and craving of the media for clicks.....who knows.

    Nvidia CEO to nervous buyers and investors: Chill out, Blackwell production is heating up

    https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/12/jensen_huang_blackwell_shipping_prediction/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has attempted to quell concerns over the reported late arrival of the Blackwell GPU architecture, and the lack of ROI from AI investments.

    "Demand is so great that delivery of our components and our technology and our infrastructure and software is really emotional for people because it directly affects their revenues, it directly affects their competitiveness," Huang explained, according to a transcript of remarks he made at the Goldman Sachs Tech Conference on Wednesday. "It's really tense. We've got a lot of responsibility on our shoulders and we're trying the best we can."

    The comments follow reports that Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell accelerators won't ship in the second half of 2024, as Huang has previously promised. The GPU giant's admission of a manufacturing defect – which necessitated a mask change – during its Q2 earnings call last month hasn't helped this perception. However, speaking with Goldman Sachs's Toshiya Hari on Wednesday, Huang reiterated that Blackwell chips were already in full production and would begin shipping in calendar Q4.

    Unveiled at Nvidia's GTC conference last northern spring, the GPU architecture promises between 2.5x and 5x higher performance and more than twice the memory capacity and bandwidth of the H100-class devices it replaces. At the time, Nvidia said the chips would ship sometime in the second half of the year.

    Despite Huang's reassurance that Blackwell will ship this year, talk of delays has sent Nvidia's share price on a roller coaster ride – made more chaotic by disputed reports that the GPU giant had been subpoenaed by the DoJ and faces a patent suit brought by DPU vendor Xockets.

    According to Huang, demand for Blackwell parts has exceeded that for the previous-generation Hopper products which debuted in 2022 – before ChatGPT's arrival made generative AI a must-have.

    Huang told the conference that extra demand appears to be the source of many customers' frustrations.

    "Everybody wants to be first and everybody wants to be most … the intensity is really, really quite extraordinary," he said.

    Accelerating ROI
    Huang also addressed concerns about the ROI associated with the pricey GPU systems powering the AI boom.

    From a hardware standpoint, Huang's argument boils down to this: the performance gains of GPU acceleration far outweigh the higher infrastructure costs.

    "Spark is probably the most used data processing engine in the world today. If you use Spark and you accelerate it, it's not unusual to see a 20:1 speed-up," he claimed, adding that even if that infrastructure costs twice as much, you're still looking at a 10x savings.

    According to Huang, this also extends to generative AI. "The return on that is fantastic because the demand is so great that every dollar that they [service providers] spend with us translates to $5 worth of rentals."

    However, as we've previously reported, the ROI on the applications and services built on this infrastructure remains far fuzzier – and the long-term practicality of dedicated AI accelerators, including GPUs, is up for debate.

    Addressing AI use cases, Huang was keen to highlight his own firm's use of custom AI code assistants. "I think the days of every line of code being written by software engineers, those are completely over."

    Huang also touted the application of generative AI on computer graphics. "We compute one pixel, we infer the other 32," he explained – an apparent reference to Nvidia’s DLSS tech, which uses frame generation to boost frame rates in video games.

    Technologies like these, Huang argued, will also be critical for the success of autonomous vehicles, robotics, digital biology, and other emerging fields.

    Densified, vertically integrated datacenters

    While Huang remains confident the return on investment from generative AI technologies will justify the extreme cost of the hardware required to train and deploy it, he also suggested smarter datacenter design could help drive down costs.

    "When you want to build this AI computer people say words like super-cluster, infrastructure, supercomputer for good reason – because it's not a chip, it's not a computer per se. We're building entire datacenters," Huang noted in apparent reference to Nvidia's modular cluster designs, which it calls SuperPODs.


    Accelerated computing, Huang explained, allows for a massive amount of compute to be condensed into a single system – which is why he says Nvidia can get away with charging millions of dollars per rack. "It replaces thousands of nodes."

    However, Huang made the case that putting these incredibly dense systems – as much as 120 kilowatts per rack – into conventional datacenters is less than ideal.

    "These giant datacenters are super inefficient because they're filled with air, and air is a lousy conductor of [heat]," he explained. "What we want to do is take that few, call it 50, 100, or 200 megawatt datacenter which is sprawling, and you densify it into a really, really small datacenter."

    Smaller datacenters can take advantage of liquid cooling – which, as we've previously discussed, is often a more efficient way to cool systems.

    How successful Nvidia will be at driving this datacenter modernization remains to be seen. But it's worth noting that with Blackwell, its top-specced parts are designed to be cooled by liquids. ®"

    MY COMMENT

    I dont think he can be more clear:

    "Blackwell chips were already in full production and would begin shipping in calendar Q4."

    So take heart NVDA owners. IGNORE the media BS.
     
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Apple used to be an innovation engine, bringing lusty ideas to the marketplace, even if many of them were quite lame. No one could sell like Steve Jobs. No one can foster innovation like Elon Musk but I think Jobs could outsell Musk, just a little.

    There hasn't been much interesting out of Apple for years but they are doing an excellent job of releasing new iPhones that are enough different that people can spot them, making them a prestige item.

    For what it's worth, I thought Apple's ARM ideas were world beating. They proved not to be, although ARM certainly hasn't hurt Apple.
     
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The other day I spotted Emmet at a Casino with three 20 year old hotties. I told him we would love to see him around Stockaholics again but he said he has plans to be at a rehydration clinic for several weeks.
     
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  17. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    No wonder I haven't seen him! I'm not much of a casino person... I would say I'm not a gambler but then I look at my brokerage account. Hopefully Emmet is following the most sound financial advice (other than following W's model) I have ever heard, the 3 F's. If you want to maintain your wealth, If it flies, floats or fornicates: rent it.
     
  18. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    As expected, PLTR broke an ATH yesterday and stayed the course. I don’t usually do graphs and statistics, but now that they are an SP500 company they will likely stay the course. I’m expecting a 100% increase for this company in less than a years time. Their chart is insane
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well.....again good job people....with the markets this week. I am up significantly. I got back in last night about 2:00AM......and have been spending the day so far today getting all my money numbers up to date.

    I am not going to mention where I was or what I was doing right now....but will probably put something up in a day or two.

    LOL....how is that for a teaser.
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I did read a little bit while gone. I never went into my account since I refuse to do so when not at home. BUT....I knew I was making some really good gains. I noticed a few days ago a number of articles about how a FED cut of 0.50% would freak everyone out.....as an indication that the FED is concerned about the economy. BALONEY.

    Stock market today: Stocks rise with jumbo Fed cut back on the table

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...umbo-fed-cut-back-on-the-table-133138258.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks edged higher on Friday, setting the stage for strong weekly wins after Wall Street's expectations for a jumbo interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve shot up overnight.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up about 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed just over the flat line to point to a fifth day of gains for both gauges amid a comeback for tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also added roughly 0.2%.

    Stocks are rising as the market warms once again to the likelihood of a half-point rate cut by the Fed after virtually writing off the chances of a big pivot in light of recent inflation and jobs data. Traders are now pricing in a 49% chance of a 50 basis point move next week, compared with 15% at one point on Thursday.

    The odds of a 0.5% reduction jumped amid reports by the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal that the size of the Fed's Sept. 18 decision will be a close call. Adding to the debate, influential former New York Fed president Bill Dudley said there's a "strong case" for a deeper cut.

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury (^TNX) slipped early Friday, down 2 basis points at around 3.66%. At the same time, the yield on 2-year notes, seen as sensitive to monetary policy, dropped to just above 3.58%.

    Markets have been whipsawed in recent days by shifting speculation over whether the Fed will opt for a cut of a quarter point or a half point when it makes its expected first rate cut this cycle. Concerns about a labor market slowdown and the risk of a recession have helped feed that volatility — which Wall Street believes could persist if a 0.5% cut comes in.

    In individual stocks, Adobe (ADBE) shares sank in morning trading after the software maker's outlook failed to show an uplift from its AI push. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL) stock rose again thanks to an upbeat forecast for a surge in revenue in the next five years, fueled by cloud demand.

    Boeing (BA) shares pulled back as factory workers walked out on strike, halting manufacturing across the planemaker's Seattle hub, its largest."

    MY COMMENT

    The media....even some of the financial media....is such ASSES. In today's environment they will do or say anything for clicks. FEAR, fear, fear, fear.

    I can see the FED doing a .5% cut for the first one and than doing a series of .25% cuts after. It would make sense to start off with a higher cut and than taper down to a series of small cuts over the next 1.5 years. Kind of a kick-start to the process.

    Even if they start with .25%....it is not going to matter. What will count is the psychology that they are now doing rate cuts.....and.....the length of time and depth of the cuts by the time they are done.
     
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