yea, have really missed a lot of those guys bigly. most of them never made the switch from the old hsm community. i have lots of fond memories from the old boards. despite losing a good portion of those members, i've really been ever so grateful that you've stuck around throughout all of the site changes over the years! it's crazy, i was mentioning this on the long term investor thread the other day, but this november would mark 18 years (yes you heard that right!) that i have been with this community in some form or another.
man, the markets have been seeing some pretty wicked swings lately lol. i don't know if there was much in the CPI report this AM that would change the FED's outlook on rates. it almost seemed like there was something for everyone in that print. looked to be largely inline with the consensus. haven't really dug too deep into it, but the headline # looked largely inline. i think the y/y was softer, but the core was slightly hotter? initially market took it as a bit bearish, but have now come off those lows pretty significantly. albeit, it is the lunch hour and we sometimes tend to see this type of action after a move down in the morning session, only to sell back down into the close. we'll see if it will follow that typical script again today. i'm not sure what other events we have upcoming from here. earnings season mostly done for now. i guess we have the FED decision next week if i'm not mistaken? will be interesting to see if we do finally get that quarter point cut. seems like it probably won't be a larger cut (0.50) after this morning's inflation number.
Maybe we rally into the FOMC next Wednesday then we will see whether the market will get what it wants from the FED (probably a couple more rate cuts this year). If the FED says the cut is one and done for now then we might see a selloff
S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posting their strongest week of 2024 ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 climbed 0.54% and closed at 5,626.02, less than 1% from its July all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.65% to end at 17,683.98. Both indexes posted their fifth consecutive winning day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 297.01 points, or 0.72%, closing at 41,393.78. Utilities, communications services and industrials led the market higher on Friday, with each sector adding roughly 1%. Investors also continued to rake up shares of megacap tech and semiconductor names, which helped drive this week's rebound rally after tech's recent underperformance. Powerhouse chipmakers Super Micro Computer and Arm Holdings added 3.4% and 5.9%, respectively. Alphabet advanced 1.8% and Uber jumped more than 6%
NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Futures on the fed funds rate, which measures the cost of unsecured overnight loans between banks, have priced in a nearly 60% chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, LSEG calculations showed. That was up from 45% last Friday and from 25% following the release of an in-line U.S. consumer price index report last week. US interest rate futures see higher odds of super-sized Fed move | Reuters The setup is pretty poor in my opinion unless it becomes clearer whether the FED will go for a 25 bps or 50 bps cut before Wednesday at 2:00 pm EST, if it is still about 50/50 chance for either a 25 bps or 50 bps cut then it could easily be setting up as a disappointment or it could spook the market. We still get the retail sales data tomorrow though, maybe it will become clearer whether the FED will go with 25 or 50 after the data
My personal opinion is that the market is somewhat overbought and overpriced, and that a 50 bps cut would be a bit hasty. But, surprisingly, no one from the Federal Reserve has ever asked me for my personal opinion.
Retail sales better than expected this morning, so a 25 bps cut makes more sense to me but the betting market seems to be favoring a 50 bps cut. Could be a pretty volatile day tomorrow, I can’t remember when was the last time we didn’t almost for sure know what the FED was gonna do
Now that we finally got the FED out of the way today, I suspect things could be headed for a bit of a lul period in the market (absent a black swan event) as there are no real major earnings or economic reports due for a while. Good time for me to possibly step away and take a break from the daily grind. That being said, if a volatility event should arise again, I’ll cut my break short. This market could use a healthy pullback after the big run higher to ATHs in advance of the FED. My guess is that it could get a little choppy until earnings season kicks back up again. As always, I won’t be a true believer of the pullback until we see a return to @Frankenstein
LOL I think usually @Frankenstein appears when there is a big pullback and he believes the market is about to bottom and turn higher soon, might not see him for awhile until the next big selloff/correction
Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan: I would be advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut (youtube.com) Former Fed Vice Chairman on the Fed's next move: There is certainly a case for a 50 bps rate cut (cnbc.com) Well it was a 50 bps cut. Looks to me to FED intentionally sent these "former" FED guys out to let the market knows they were gonna cut by 50 today, the odds were pretty low for a 50 bps cut before these former FED guys speaking about a 50 bps cut
Usually a move on Thursday after a big FED announcement is a better indication of how the market will do for the next couple of weeks rather than Wednesday so I wouldn't be surprised the market going right back up tomorrow despite the selling before the closing bell. If the economy is holding up, inflation is slowing and the FED is cutting 2 more times this year, I think IWM and gold will do pretty well from here.
