First of all, anyone who gets angry at me for this prediction is an indicator that you're a damn moron. I have not written who I want to win, only who I believe will win. I think there is an extremely reasonable chance the election could go: Harris, House - Democrat, Senate - Democrat I give this outcome a 70% chance. While I don't consider this a nightmare scenario, it will undoubtedly bring some problems. Democrats seem to generally be in favor of drugs, decriminalized theft, and wholesale spending. That has absolutely ruined every city which has tried it but there is zero chance those cautionary tales will slow anyone's (MJ) roll. For reference, I cite: Portland, San Francisco, New York It will undoubtedly be short lived, perhaps one election cycle, once bad stuff starts happening. If Democrats could stay reasonably close to the center, I would be cool with them. For the record, my view on Republicans is identical. This is not a situation in which I will go heavily into the market. I will continue exactly as I have, heavily in fixed income. DRIPS off. Selling nothing. Any other points of view, preferably in contrast to mine?
Portland, SF, and New York are extremely wealthy, highly productive cities that are innovation hubs. We can only hope that the cities of Alabama, Missouri, and Tennessee were so ruined. In any case, the influence of who controls the government vs. the stock market is largely exaggerated. Both parties are highly incentivized to keep the market up. Minor changes in tax policy, regulatory policy, and even spending policy have minor effects, and there are often 2nd and 3rd-order effects that neutralize the primary one. I do think there is a bigger worry if DJT becomes President because he is so erratic and has such dictatorial tendencies; I don't know if our systems would hold this time. Markets get very scared when law and order are threatened, and putting a convicted felon and rapist in power is a good way to do that.
There are different strategies that I have to deal with different economic situations. Any given economic situation can definitely be influenced - sometimes drastically so - by a President, the Congress and the government - separately or in concert. I don't know what the future will bring, but I will act accordingly as it unfolds, and more information becomes available. I have no confidence in either party, or any government that I know much about, especially not any governments of countries that are big enough to make a real difference in geopolitical economics and power. Enjoy whatever freedom you have left. A government near you is coming for it, and once it's gone, it's gone!
To me, this is a good sound bite that is too often untrue. During WWII, the US government fractured private society with takeover, seizures, rations, etc. After the war ended...it went away. During Covid, we had lockdowns, mandates, curfews...and now those are gone.
I hope you are right and I am wrong. That would make me incredibly happy. But absolute power corrupts absolutely, and technology is quickly moving toward giving strong, centralized governments absolute power - if it hasn't already. George Orwell's version of 'Big Brother' would be very envious at how much more complete the tools of surveillance, monitoring and oppression are in reality, today, than the meager fictional ones described in "1984". Thomas Jefferson, all those years ago, could foresee what would happen when strong central governments were allowed to run amok by the citizens. Many of the Founding Fathers had the right ideas and tried to set things up so that one government, at least, would provide it's citizens with alternatives to totalitarianism. But now they're just "dead white guys, who were part of the problem." And the citizens are too busy watching re-runs and playing video games and surfing the internet trying to convince each other that all the "whackos" talking about the dystopian world future they foresee are full of 'misinformation' and that what they are saying is 'often untrue.'
Trumps getting record numbers and will get electoral college win. Dems are polling horrible for Harris.
BREAKING: Trump promises to cut electricity and energy prices in half for all Americans in his first year of office.
Not lies PRESIDENT TRUMP: Here is the deal that I will be offering to every major company and manufacturer on earth: We will cut your taxes from 21% down to 15%, and give you every possible advantage—but ONLY if you make your product here in America, and hire American workers for the job. If you DON’T make your product here, then you will have to pay a tariff when you send your product into the United States—and we will take in hundreds of billions of dollars into our Treasury, and use that money to benefit YOU, the American citizens.
2017 X posted Trump doing. @michaelmurphyKO Revenue neutral plan @RepDaveBrat @RepKevinBrady. Hong Kong competitive corporate tax 15%. Dem state counties larg cities benefit greatly. Dems control large cities high crime rates large handouts large unemployment.
True and just Google https://budget.house.gov/press-release/the-cost-of-the-border-crisis-1507-billion-and-counting The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) has done a great job. Studies suggest this cost is upwards of $400 billion, but their cost estimate is $150 billion.
I agree on those odds for President and House, but not sure how you are 70% confident in a Democrat Senate win. The map is awful for Senate dems.
Trump going to win electoral college and president. Republican House Senate REPORTER: "On the hurricane, why weren't you and VP Harris here in Washington commanding this this weekend?" BIDEN: "I was commanding!" (He was at his beach house and Kamala was fundraising in San Francisco)
On Mar 4, 2021, Kamala cast the TIE-BREAKING vote on the $1.9T American Rescue Plan. Democrat economists warned her it would cause inflation. And it did.. It caused 20+% inflation. It created a cost-of-living crisis. It crushed hardworking Americans. Kamala broke our economy.
Tim wrong Why the Senate Border Deal FAILED: 1–Codify Catch/Release 2–Let in 1.8M Illegals 3–Fund Sanctuary Cities 4–Fund NGOs Moving Illegals 5–Lawyers to Illegals 6–Work Permits to Illegals 7–Nothing to Deport Illegals 8–No Immediate Wall Funds 9–Weak Asylum Screening $60B Ukra Walz refuses to say if he supports ANY limits on abortion-on-demand. FACT: In Minnesota, Walz legalized unrestricted abortion-on-demand until birth — “the most extreme abortion laws in the country.” .@JDVance: "We do want to blame Kamala Harris for letting in millions of illegal aliens into this country which does drive cost up. 25 million illegal aliens competing with Americans for scarce homes is one of the most significant drivers of home prices." JUST IN: JD Vance absolutely obliterates Kamala Harris for failing to protect the southern border. This is worth every second of your time. "The only thing that Kamala did when she became the vice president, when she became the appointed border czar, was to undo 94 Donald Trump executive actions that opened the border." "I've been to the southern border more than our borders czar Kamala Harris has been."
Can't wipe your ass with numbers from FAIR. They are a think tank. I won't use Cato numbers to suggest that immigrants are the greatest thing in America...
