WOW....seems like a good day and a good week for me. I had a nice hefty gain today with only two stocks in the RED.....MSFT and HD. And both of them came back nicely at the end of the day even though still red. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.16%. Done with the first week of October.
The first week of October. DOW year to date +12.30% DOW five days +0.15% SP500 year to date +21.26% SP500 five days +0.43% NASDAQ 100 year to date +21.05% NASDAQ 100 five days +0.32% NASDAQ year to date +22.84% NASDAQ five days +0.38% RUSSELL year to date +9.94% RUSSELL five days (-0.16%) This week for my entire portfolio....year to date.....+54.58%. Last Friday my entire portfolio year to date.....+52.77%. A very good week as we countdown to year end in 12.5 weeks.
HERE is the week that was. Dow jumps 300 points for record close as September’s big jobs report spurs rally https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks advanced on Friday after an expectation-defying jobs report gave investors confidence around the health of the economy. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 5,751.07, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22% to 18,137.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 341.16 points, or 0.81%, to notch an all-time closing high of 42,352.75. Stocks rallied after data showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 254,000 jobs in September, far outpacing the forecasted gain of 150,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% despite expectations for it to hold steady at 4.2%. “After a summer of weak labor data readings, this is a reassuring reading that the U.S. economy remains resilient, supported by a healthy labor market,” said Michelle Cluver, head of ETF model portfolios at Global X. “We remain in an environment where good economic news is good news for the equity market as it increases the potential for a soft landing.” Tesla, Amazon and Netflix were among the megacap tech names climbing on Friday, which can help explain the Nasdaq’s outperformance. Financials were the top sector in the S&P 500 during the session, surging 1.6% and closing at a record. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo jumped more than 3% each. On the other end of the spectrum, small cap stocks also rallied, with the Russell 2000 up 1.5%. Friday’s bounce erased losses seen in recent days. Mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East gave way to a shaky start in October for stocks, a turn after the market posted an unusually strong first nine months of the year. The S&P 500 finished up 0.22% on the week, while the Dow inched higher by 0.09%. The Nasdaq added 0.1% for the week, a major turnaround given the tech-heavy index came into Friday’s session down more than 1%. Crude oil prices rose again on Friday, bringing the weekly gain to around 9%. Oil has been pushed higher as a result of intensifying conflict in the Middle East after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel. Energy stocks have jumped this week as oil rallied, with the S&P 500 sector up 7%. That marked the group’s best week since October 2022." MY COMMENT We appear to be headed to an epic close to the year. In my day to day life I see much concern with prices and inflation...but little of it seems to be translating to the general economy that I see around me with the exception of restaurants which seem to be taking a real hit lately in my local area. It seems like we have a clear field ahead of us for the markets EXCEPT for one thing......the ELECTION. BUT.....for us little people there is nothing we can do about that except make our one vote. We will just have to live with whatever happens as will all the companies that we own. AND....in general people will get what they vote for and what they deserve.....for better or worse. As I often say....I simply dont care.....other than doing my one vote and just moving on. My focus in on my immediate family and that is about all.
Unfortunately this is likely the future of what will be called...."investing"....for many people. A brokerage diving into election betting means the fusion of trading and gambling is complete Historically, you go to a casino to bet. You go to trading platforms to trade stocks. Now, you can do both under the same roof at Interactive Brokers. https://sherwood.news/markets/election-betting-trading-interactive-brokers/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Trading platform Interactive Brokers announced that it will be offering forecast contracts on the US election results. The move is no doubt inspired by a recent court decision in favor of Kalshi, an online prediction market, that essentially give the green light for legal presidential election markets in the US. "Forecast Contracts allow investors to act on the most crucial issues shaping our future,” said Thomas Peterffy, Founder and Chairman of Interactive Brokers, in the press release. “These contracts give traders a direct line to market sentiment on elections, helping them manage risk or express views on political events." Existing customers will be able to access these contracts later today through the ForecastEx exchange using their Interactive Brokers login, according to the release. I can’t think of any business decision that better captures the current Zeitgeist of America in the 2020s. Americans love to gamble. If you watch any live sporting event, you’ve likely been inundated with ads — both in-game and during commercial breaks — that lay out the odds and where you can go to make a wager. Americans also love to trade stocks. Retail trading, spurred in part to the advent of commission-free trades, has become at times a dominant force in certain stocks or pockets of the market. Retail volumes spiked during the pandemic, and have stayed above 2019 levels as share of trading volume in US stocks. Options contracts — and so-called YOLO wagers looking for significant moves in a given stock — have often been a preferred vehicle for retail traders. If you squint, these positions bear a lot of resemblance to prediction markets, because they both have a price and time element: the value of the underlying instrument must be at X by time Y for the bet to pay out. Now, in some respects, the idea of trading as betting is nothing new. There’s no shortage of (usually value-oriented) investor quotes about how the stock market is a casino in the short term and a major wealth-generator for patient capital in the long term. And over at Bloomberg, my old boss Joe Weisenthal has written (convincingly) about how short-term interest rate markets are effectively a prediction market on what the Federal Reserve will have done with its policy rate by a certain point in time. But what is new, and the common link that really helps define why this has become such a cultural phenomenon, is the ease of access and execution. The barriers to entry have only gone down, down, down. Historically, you go to the casino, or (since 2018, to any number of these online sports gambling apps), to bet. You go to trading platforms to trade stocks. Now, you can go to a trading platform to do both. This is the next logical step in the fusion of trading and gambling. Any semblance of a wall between these activities is, it turns out, a facade. I also love the financial innovation here from Interactive Brokers: customers will get paid to wait while holding their bets, an “incentive coupon” of 4.33% annual percentage yield on the value of their position. What a barbell strategy: the safety of having your money effectively in a high-yield savings account with the riskiness of losing it all if the bet doesn’t go your way! Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, seems to have called this. Upon reading this announcement, I was immediately reminded of this passage from Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter (emphasis added): Though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school. For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants. One fact of financial life should never be forgotten. Wall Street – to use the term in its figurative sense – would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity. At such times, whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed – not by everyone but always by someone.' MY COMMENT You have got to love the term......."Forecast Contracts". I am sure more and more brokers will give in to this sort of "stuff" as they see the amount of money that is involved and that can be made. Of course......this is simply GAMBLING disguised as "trading". AND.....we all know that the operative word now used for "investing" is......"trading". SO.......we are very quickly moving toward a time when "investing" will simply be gambling for many people. One more step in the DUMBING DOWN of the population. A direct consequence of the screen revolution, social media, no attention span, influencer culture, and the advent and dominance of.......what I would call......EMOTIONAL LOGIC.
There is some very good information in this little article about......"Portfolio Construction". A lot of the information here is very relevant to investors that handle their own portfolios. This content is a good starting point to creating a portfolio. Who’s Really Managing Your Portfolio? https://mypersonalcfo.com/2024/10/03/whos-really-managing-your-portfolio/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content Here is the opening content of the article to get you started......see the article for the rest. "There are several ways to construct a portfolio: Some build with a top-down approach, building the portfolio from a pre-decided overall allocation and filling in the needs for stocks, bonds, cash, etc. Some build from the bottom-up, choosing investments with the characteristics they prefer and forming an allocation based on how much exposure they want to each selection. Some build within the context of a financial plan, looking at income and risk need constraints to create a strategy, a mix of assets, to meet their goals. Some people rebalance based on that mix, but if we’re being honest, most do not. No matter where you fall on the spectrum, it’s important to ask yourself questions along the way – portfolio management is not a spectator sport. Does your strategy align with your goals? Is your strategy working to achieve these goals? What progress have you made? What about the tactics being employed to implement the plan?" MY COMMENT A nice little article. Just the above is is a great start for anyone considering creating a portfolio for themselves.
BANKS, BANKS, BANKS. It will be the start of earnings this week with the usual focus on bank earnings first up for the markets. We will also get the CPI and PPI data and of course FED members obsessively talking to anyone that will listen. Fed commentary, CPI, PPI, bank earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fed...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Here's what investors need to watch next week. Throughout the week, investors will get commentary from several Federal Reserve officials including Governor Michelle Bowman, the sole dissenter of the 50 basis point cut. On Wednesday, the Fed will release minutes from its September meeting. The commentary and minutes could provide insight into the Fed's next move in the ongoing rate-cutting cycle. The market will receive fresh economic data, including the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Experts expect both figures to show declining inflation. Bank earnings take center stage, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and BNY Mellon (BK) reporting quarterly results. Negotiations between Boeing (BA) and the union representing machinists are set to resume on Monday." MY COMMENT In reality it will simply be a NORMAL market week. It will be nice to see earnings kick off with the banks.....as usual. In about 3-5 weeks we will be into the GUTS of earnings and after will be able to move to the end of the forth quarter and year end.
Here are the earnings date for the companies that I care about.....although.....some of these dates might change. 10-22-24 MSFT 10-22-24 GOOGL 10-24-24 AMZN 10-28-24 CMG 11-7-24 PLTR 11-7-24 AAPL 11-12-24 HD 11-26-25 NVDA 12-11-24 COST Some of the above like NVDA...I am seeing various dates listed for earnings.
The first time I heard the phrase.....Pay Yourself First......was in the early 1970's. it was an epiphany for me. Things back than were much different from now. Very few people invested in funds or stocks. There was no IRA accounts. Money market funds did not exist yet. There was no 401K. Can you even IMAGINE a time when there was NO 401K or IRA or Money Market funds? Many of us early Baby Boomers lived this reality. But.....I digress. I was in the very early stages of my financial life....even though I had been exposed to investing my entire life through my mom. When I heard that phrase from a contractor/businessman....it blew me away as a concept. What does it mean to ‘pay yourself first,’ and how does it work? https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-...YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif&guccounter=2 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Rent, groceries, gym memberships, home maintenance, streaming subscriptions — your list of monthly expenses can seem endless. So it’s no wonder that by the end of the month, you might not have much left to put into a savings account. If that situation sounds familiar, there’s a savings strategy that can help. It’s called “pay yourself first.” What does it mean to pay yourself first, and how do you do it? Read on to learn more. What does it mean to pay yourself first? “Pay yourself first” is a strategy that emphasizes prioritizing savings and investments before spending on other expenses. The idea is to allocate a portion of your income to savings, retirement accounts, or investments as soon as you receive your paycheck, rather than saving whatever is left at the end of the month. This method is sometimes called “reverse budgeting” because it prioritizes savings over expenses and discretionary spending. By treating your savings as a fixed expense, you build consistent savings over time, eventually allowing you to achieve long-term financial goals, such as buying a home or retiring with enough to live comfortably. Why paying yourself first is important Paying yourself first is an important financial exercise. It ensures that your savings grow consistently over time and that you’re making progress toward your goals. Additionally, getting in the habit of paying yourself first helps build financial discipline. It prevents overspending and encourages more responsible spending and budgeting. Plus, by paying yourself first, you build a financial safety net in case an unplanned expense or emergency financial situation arises. Having cash in the bank at the start of each month means you’re less likely to rely on credit cards or other forms of debt to get by. How to pay yourself first Paying yourself first is not always easy, but it is entirely possible with the right approach. Here’s how you can ensure you always pay yourself first. 1. Set a savings goal Decide a percentage of your pay you want to use to pay yourself first. A common recommendation is to save 20% of your pre-tax income, with 15% for retirement and 5% for short-term savings. You can always adjust the percentages if your finances don’t allow you to save 20%. For instance, you could save 12% for retirement and 4% for short-term savings. In other words, you can keep the ratios roughly the same but lower the total percentage. Ultimately, the goal should be achievable. 2. Decide where to put your savings As you contribute to your savings, it’s important to put those funds in an account that generates compound returns with few, if any, costs. This will allow you to hedge against inflation, preserving the value of your dollars and helping your balance grow exponentially over time. Savings accounts are ideal for this purpose since they’re designed for holding funds long-term, not spending. In particular, high-yield savings accounts are a great place to keep your short-term savings because they pay higher-than-average interest rates. In fact, some of the best high-yield savings accounts pay 5% APY or more. However, for longer-term savings goals, such as retirement or college, a tax-advantaged investment account is a better choice. If you’re not sure about the right account for your savings or the ideal strategy for reaching your savings goals, it can help to speak with a financial adviser for some guidance. 3. Set up a budget The key to paying yourself first is making savings a line item in your budget. This allows you to adjust your budget around the money that remains after you’ve set aside your savings. If you find that your total expenses exceed the amount of income you have left after saving, you may need to tinker with your budget categories and potentially cut down on discretionary spending in certain areas. 4. Enable automatic transfers Another step you can take to ensure saving money remains a top priority is automating your contributions. Many banks allow you to set up automatic transfers to and from deposit and investment accounts. In many cases, you may also be able to have your employer deduct a portion of your paycheck and deposit it directly to a 401(k) or other retirement account. Of course, this works best if you get paid the same amount at regular intervals. You may need to transfer money manually if your pay is less consistent. 5. Make adjustments as needed It may be necessary to make adjustments to your plan for various reasons. At first, you might have to adjust your contributions if they don’t quite fit your finances or budget. Eventually, you might need further adjustments due to changing life circumstances, such as getting married, a change in your salary, or relocating. If your expenses increase, it may be necessary to reduce your savings. Or if your pay increases, perhaps you can pay yourself more. Revisit your budget at least annually to ensure it still works for your finances." MY COMMENT This is the very first step in becoming an investor. It is the first way that many people learn about money and discipline. It sounds so simple but like many things involving money it is difficult at the same time. It requires DISCIPLINE. Saving some portion of your check along with participating in any 401K option that you have are CRITICAL first steps to being an investor. if you have no money.......you can not be an investor. SO......PAY YOURSELF FIRST.
To continue on topics that should be of interest to NEW or YOUNG investors: Nearly a third of Gen Zers don’t feel in control of their credit score—managing it is ‘actually very easy,’ says expert https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/06/cre...-keys-to-understanding-your-credit-score.html
All good here thanks W. It seems like a very flat few months for my portfolio. I don't recall a 2/3 month period as flat as this since I started investing. Nothing seems to be happening. I sold Tesla recently but apart from that my portfolio remains the same: about half in the S&P, and the other half split between Apple, Amazon and Nvidia. Unfortunately, I'm not currently managing to invest as much as I would like each month. The cost of living crisis in this country is very real! Prices are way up! Groceries, fuel, gas, electric - it's all getting very expensive! That is definitely having an effect on my disposable income. However, I'm not complaining. I feel very lucky I'm able to comfortably pay my bills and still have a little left each month to invest. I know plenty who are not so fortunate.
Sounds like you are doing OK Lori. Your SP500 has been doing well +4.78% over the past month...... as has NVDA, +20% over the past month. AAPL and AMZN....AAPL is up by +1.78% and AMZN is up by +3.47%......over the past month. So looks like you are doing better than you think. That is how it works sometimes. What is REALLY important is to PAY YOURSELF FIRST and try to put something into your investments each month. It all adds up over TIME....even if it seems like it is not happening....it is. Keep up the good work. It is the same over here in the USA....many people are being hammered by high prices and the cost of living even though the economy is good.
HERE is the little issue with the open today.....the Ten Year Treasury yield. It has bumped up to 4.006%. BUT....fear not....with rate cuts happening now it will not be able to buck the trend for long. This is just a temporary little TRADERS bump. It is also connected to the Middle East and oil issues and jitters. Definitely a weak open today with most of the big cap tech stocks down right now. Good old NVDA is about the only one that is doing well. We will see how it all sorts out after an hour or two and when all the opening orders and trading settles for the day. We seem to be in a period of weak and red opens lately over the last 2-3 weeks.
YES.....you are going to have to invest through local, state, and/or federal elections EVERY YEAR. There is NOTHING you need to do ahead of them. Simply trust your companies and their management to deal with whatever conditions they have to deal with. Why investors should 'stay the course' ahead of the election https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif
Amazon.com Inc.'s shares have declined $5.45, or 2.9%, while those of Travelers are off $4.25, or 1.8%, combining for a roughly 64-point drag on the Dow.
I tend to agree....although it is not a critical happening. Over the long term whether this year or next it will happen and we will move higher from there. Goldman Sachs lifts S&P 500 index target for year-end, next 12 months https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold...f-8jlcqOmp62GxLKMaFT2rEshtmpjFuQTBOCiLZsmL3Lp (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Goldman Sachs (GS) has raised its target for the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) index for the year-end and the next 12 months on expectations of higher margin growth for corporate companies and a steady macroeconomic outlook through 2025. The Wall Street brokerage on Friday lifted the index target for the next twelve months to 6,300 from 6,000 and raised the current year-end target to 6,000 from 5,600. Goldman's year-end target implies an upside of 4.32% from the index's last close of 5,751.07 on Friday. Goldman is also bullish on the earnings per share(EPS) growth of corporate America, raising its 2025 EPS estimate to $268 from $256, reflecting an 11% increase on an annual basis. The brokerage maintained its 2024 EPS forecast at $241. "Our forward EPS estimates reflect a steady macro outlook...(and) the primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Goldman analysts led by David Kostin said in a note dated Friday. Data in August showed that the US economy grew faster than initially expected in the second quarter, amid strong consumer spending, and corporate profits rebounded, which should help to sustain the expansion. "Macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion," Kostin said. A boost from mega-cap technology stocks and recovery in the semiconductor industry cycle will further support companies' EPS growth, the brokerage added. MY COMMENT I happen to agree with ALL of the above. I believe we are in for a very nice close to the year over the next 3 months. The big averages should do well and earnings should be just fine.
A little over an hour in and the markets are still RED. Not a shocking event as we have been seeing a very low energy market especially at the open lately. It is a very stock specific market lately. If you own the right mix of companies you have done well....if you dont you have probably been treading water.......or......even losing a little bit. Welcome to the short term. BUT....over the long term it will all settle out and the typical long term upward bias in the markets will win out. It is all about PATIENCE and ENDURANCE. Much of your life as a long term investor will simply be routinely plowing money into the markets. It is often boring and at times you will actually lose money. That is the price you have to pay for the gains. I suspect that a lot of investors this year have done better than they think. I suspect that a lot of investors this year are siting on a really good gain right now....after all the SP500 is over +20% YTD. It is a historic positive gain this year....but the "FEELING" out there in the world......is skittish and even negative.
Just to show what sort of a day it is so far......I have a single stock in the GREEN. Luckily it is NVDA which is my largest holding. I still have "hope" for a few more of my stocks to turn green during the day. BUT......"hope".....is not much of an investment strategy. LOL. I have not looked at my actual account so I dont know my gain or loss so far......but....even if it is a loss it can not be that large. I am siting on a YTD gain of well over +50%......so.......I can not complain about day to day action. The Middle East stuff will sort itself out over the next month or two. We will also be seeing EARNINGS soon....which I expect to be generally good. It is important for me and anyone else to NOT get sucked into the negativity of the short term and the vague FEELINGS of unease, that many people have right now. I have had a very good year. We have acquired some nice sculpture and paintings this year. I will be bidding in a couple of auctions at the end of this week....one for my kid and one for myself. Our net worth has moved nicely over this year and is either at or close to an all time high right now. The high end painting that we got at auction a few weeks ago should arrive with the art shipper this week and go up over the fireplace. BOTH my kids and their spouses are making more right now than they have ever made and are successful in their jobs and their investing. Everyone is healthy. We all have much to be thankful for. Etc, etc, etc. BUT....I am not oblivious to what is going on with high prices and the unease of many people around me.
In spite of all the "feelings"...there is little to nothing going on today in terms of the markets. Kind of a pre-earnings lull. In reality is is a very NORMAL market right now. As is obvious.....I am finding nothing to put up on here today in the news and commentary. That is probably a good thing.
WELL....that is CRAZY and UNEXPECTED. I just looked at my account. I have a nice solid MEDIUM SIZE GAIN. I have only two stocks UP right now NVDA and HD. BUT..... with NVDA being the largest holding in my account....by far....and with it being up by $3.23 or 2.59%....I am bucking the current red market trend. WHATEVER....I will take it.
