The Long Term Investor

Good with the.....VOO.

I have only nine stocks but I also have the SP500 Index fund and the fidelity contra Fund....also a big cap fund. I see them as very important to anchor and balance out my very concentrated stock portfolio. BUT....at the same time...they TRIPLE up on the BIG CAP ICONIC STOCKS that are my nine stocks.

As to the nine stocks being suitable for an IRA.....WELL......for the most part they are ALL among the greatest companies in the world. In fact EIGHT of them are among the top 25 companies in the SP500.

KEEP IN MIND....what counts...the only thing that counts...is what is best for......YOU, YOU, YOU.

 

Bigmaix......let us know what you decide to do and why.

It is important in this thread to let others know this sort of information. It is a learning process for us all and seeing what others do and why is a very important part of that process.

 

Attention Kmart shoppers......there is a BLUE LIGHT special on aisle two:

Kmart shoppers bid a wistful farewell to the last outpost of a once-beloved ‘mainstay’

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kmart-shoppers-bid-wistful-farewell-070048281.html

MY COMMENT

RIP......Kmart. the forerunner to Walmart and all the other Big Box stores.

 

You know....today I saw yet another article debating whether or not the FED is going to achieve a SOFT LANDING.

I say........DUH. It is over. It has been over for some time. We have clearly achieved a soft landing.

I dont know if it is due to the FED.....probably not. It is probably as a result of the BULL MARKET and the American consumer. It is because of a split economy.....good yet bad for many people at the same time. It is also simply.....LUCK.

I say let it go....just admit that it happened....move on to the next topic.....will we see a revival of inflation and a pull back in the economy? Of course the answer to this question very much depends on the outcome of the ELECTION.

Fortunately for long term investors that have no choice but to simply live with what the election gives us.....we will know where things stand going forward in about two weeks for the actual election and who knows how many weeks to find out the result.

All of the economic discussion that we see every day is OK.....but.....eye on the ball. It is and will continue to be all about company performance that is measured in EARNINGS.

 

Just thought I would.....RAZZ.....CITI again today for their IDIOTIC call.

Nvidia shares to remain stuck for the rest of the year, says Citi

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/nvi...stuck-for-the-rest-of-the-year-says-citi.html

(published on October 8, 2024)

Of course we know the ACTUAL TRUTH:

Nvidia stock rises to new record, exceeding June high as AI trade is rekindled

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/nvi...eding-june-high-as-ai-trade-is-rekindled.html

MY COMMENT

At the time CITI made the call above it was ridiculously IDIOTIC. The stock was UP a HUGE amount for the week, six months, and year. It was NOT stuck at all and showed ZERO evidence of being stuck.

Since the call the stock has continued to make them look like.......absolute MORONS.

 

HERE is how we look on earnings so far.......same as the past two years or more......GOOD earnings in spite of what the experts think.

EARNINGS INSIGHT

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_101824.pdf

KEY INFORMATION (all data is for the SP500)

• Earnings SO FAR: With 14% of S&P 500 companies earnings in the bag.......79% of S&P 500
companies reported a positive EPS surprise........64% reported a positive revenue
surprise.
• Earnings Growth: Earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 3.4%. If we can keep this up it will be the 5th quarter in a row of year-over-year earnings growth.
• Earnings Guidance: Nine companies issued negative EPS guidance and five issued positive EPS guidance.
• Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 21.9. Above the 5-year average of 19.5. Also above the ten year average.

MY COMMENT

A very good start to earnings. It appears that we are going to follow the normal trend of GREAT earnings that we have seen for many years now.

 

Here is the week to come.....as we close in on the end of the month of October and Halloween.

Tesla, Boeing, UPS highlight earnings rush: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...gs-rush-what-to-know-this-week-113215991.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks secured their sixth straight week of wins on Friday as strong earnings from Netflix (NFLX) boosted the overall tech sector. The attention now turns to other Magnificent Seven names, with EV maker Tesla (TSLA) set to report quarterly results on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led markets higher, up about 1% over the past week. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) followed, each securing weekly gains of around 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.

Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reached all-time highs throughout the course of the week as well.

Meanwhile, the rotation out of megacap tech and into other areas of the market was on display this week as Utilities (XLU) ripped higher to end the five-day period up 3.4%, followed by Real Estate (XLRE) and Financials (XLF) with gains of 3% and 2.4%, respectively. Small caps also outpaced the major indexes, with the Russell 2000 (^RUT) finishing the week up around 2%.


The market moves come as investors have enjoyed a particularly strong start to earnings season, with Big Tech giants like Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) still yet to report.

So far, 79% of S&P 500 companies have delivered a positive earnings surprise for Q3, which is above the overall five-year average of 77%, according to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters.

The earnings season party will continue this week, with reports from Tesla, Boeing (BA), General Motors (GM), American Airlines (AAL), and UPS (UPS) among names set to highlight a busy calendar.

Outside of earnings, investors will also be monitoring a slew of economic data, including the final reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan due Friday. The Fed Beige Book, slated for Wednesday, will provide another pulse check on current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts.

The housing market will also be top of mind after mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching closer to 6.5%.

A weekly update on jobless claims is also on the schedule, as well as activity checks from the services and manufacturing sectors.

Can Tesla drive strong earnings growth?

Tesla is set to deliver quarterly earnings on Wednesday following the much-anticipated "We, Robot" event that took place on Oct. 10.

Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg expect the EV giant to deliver adjusted earnings per share of $0.60 on revenue of $25.42 billion. Global deliveries, which improved sequentially for the first time this year, along with a potential tick-up in automative gross margins, should help boost profits in the quarter.

However, investors remain on edge when it comes to the company's future investments after last week's robotaxi unveiling fell short of expectations.

In a note to clients following the event, Jefferies analysts called the $30,000 driverless robotaxi, dubbed the Cybercab, a "toothless taxi," adding that Tesla has "ambitious targets" with "little evidence of feasibility."

The new Cybercab, designed to be fully autonomous, has no steering wheel or pedals. Production is slated to begin "before 2027,” according to CEO Elon Musk, and will likely be a big talking point on the earnings call.

"Investors may seek details on the rollout of Tesla's sub-$30,000 vehicle," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steve Man wrote on Friday. "For high-volume sales, the automaker might need to include traditional features like a steering wheel and pedals in its Cybercabs."

Tesla shares, which have seen volatile swings over the past few months, are down about 10% since the start of the year.

Consumer, labor checks

Retail sales for the month of September came in marginally above consensus expectations earlier last week, signaling that the US economy remains strong. But investors will have more data points to chew on, with the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index due Friday.

For the final reading of October, sentiment is expected to tick up to 69.5 after the index's preliminary reading unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months to 68.9 in September.

According to the University of Michigan, consumers have continued to express frustration over high prices despite moderating inflation data. This had offset more optimistic views of the jobs market, which remains a critical focus point for the Federal Reserve after it slashed interest rates by 50 basis points at its last meeting.

Markets are currently pricing in another 25 basis point cut in November, but Fed officials seem split on the path forward.

Earlier this week, San Francisco Federal Reserve president Mary Daly said one or two more rate cuts this year would still be a "reasonable thing to do" if inflation pressures continue to cool and the job market remains on solid footing.

"The work to achieve a soft landing is not fully done," Daly said in her speech on Tuesday. "We are resolute to finish that job."

But just one day prior, Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller said the central bank needs to be more cautious when it comes to rates, saying in a speech at Stanford University, "Data is signaling that the economy may not be slowing as much as desired."

Another round of jobless claims, due Thursday, will be closely scrutinized after the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell back to earth in the week ending Oct. 12.

US jobless claims fell by 19,000 to 241,000, but economists have warned the labor market could be skewed in the near term following the aftermath of both Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton in the Southeast regions, along with the labor strike at Boeing.

"Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the Boeing strike are starting to distort the economic data, but given the timing of those storms — with Helene making landfall September 26 and Milton on October 10 — the most significant impact on the data is still ahead of us," Oxford Economics wrote in a note on Friday."

MY COMMENT

Basically.....a NOTHING week to come.

TSLA is the only earnings that is meaningful. The others, especially poor BA, are one giant nothing-burger. The economic data this week is the same....simply the media stretching for something to talk about. Consumer sentiment.......worthless and meaningless in terms of the ACTUAL economy. I dont care about peoples impressions of the economy as an investor.

The various weekly data points that will come out this week.....meaningless due to one week being irrelevant to even the short term.

So the good news.....it will be general market BIAS which will be the greatest impact on the markets this week. It is very positive right now.......along with general investor "feelings". Probably heading to a week about the same as the past couple of weeks. In other words a NORMAL market.

 

I dont see or hear much about the election out in the real world. Of course....I am not in one of the states that are the focus of all the election "stuff".

BUT....I am sure it will impact the markets over the next 2.3 weeks. It will be nice to get it out of the way and move on to whatever we will have to deal with as investors.

From an economic standpoint I see the election as the primary factor that will determine if INFLATION is likely to come back.

 

I did some very small trades in one of my kids accounts today. They had $3000 extra money so it went into the Schwab account. So we bought at the open:

NVDA 3sh.
PLTR 12sh
CMG 8sh
AMZN 2sh
MSFT 1sh
AAPL 2sh
GOOGL 2sh

I omitted HD and COST due to simply exhausting all the money.

 

AMEN.

The Bull Market Turns Two
Some timeless investment lessons from the past two years of bull market.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/the-bull-market-turns-two

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"No one knew it at the time, but two years ago last Saturday, a bull market was born. While this is mostly a trivial milestone with little actual meaning for long-term investors, looking back at the past two years is a good, timeless lesson in how markets work. Let us take a trip down memory lane.

The year was 2022, a challenging one for investors. A sentiment-driven bear market started on January 4 as myriad fears took turns leading headlines. Elevated inflation. Fed rate hikes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Europe’s energy crisis (and concerns soaring costs and potential rationing would drive deep recession in Western Europe). US midterm election uncertainties.

Amid the many fears, global markets slipped -0.4% on October 12, leaving the MSCI World down -26.1% from January 4. The next day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September CPI report, which showed that while headline CPI eased to 8.2% y/y from August’s 8.3%, the “core” rate (which excludes food and energy) accelerated to 6.6% y/y, a new multidecade high. Despite opening in the red on Wednesday, October 13, global stocks rebounded and finished that Wednesday up 1.9%.[ii]

Boom, there it was. Naturally, at the time, nobody cheered a new bull market’s birthday. Investors remained fixated on inflation, and many observers worried September’s numbers indicated stubborn price pressures—and a possible inflation reacceleration. Most thought the Fed needed to pour on more hikes to get prices under control, and these “tightening” and “higher for longer” rates, according to the conventional wisdom, would sink stocks further.

Outside inflation, headlines were preoccupied with the UK’s political crisis over then-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s “mini-budget.” The spate of modest tax cuts, a reversal of planned tax hikes and energy price assistance sparked a sentiment-driven UK Gilt selloff that triggered a crisis at leveraged pension funds, drawing Bank of England (BoE) assistance. By the time the bull market was born, Truss was clinging to her agenda even as her government collapsed, driving political and fiscal uncertainty. Debt crisis fears hadn’t abated, and projections were grim.

Meanwhile, expectations for the following year were quite pessimistic. Most economists argued a US recession was all-but inevitable in 2023, with the only questions about the downturn’s magnitude and start date.[iii] On the investment front, a Bloomberg aggregate of 2023 Wall Street strategists’ market outlooks predicted a decline in the S&P 500—the first time the aggregate forecast was negative in decades.[iv]

Even now, there is some disbelief in this bull market. Many call it the fruit of AI, as if Tech and Tech-related things are the only factors driving it and the only beneficiaries. But the rally is real and broad, and it formed and grew as reality exceeded expectations, driving stocks up the proverbial wall of worry.

See inflation’s downward trajectory over the past two years. Prices never ended up reaccelerating to surpass June 2022’s high.

Exhibit 1: Inflation’s Downward Trajectory


Source: FactSet, as of 10/14/2024.

That UK political drama cost Truss the premiership, but the UK didn’t have a financial crisis, pensions pulled through and the BoE didn’t need to keep the industry on life support. Yields gradually eased in sympathy with global bond markets.

Europe’s energy situation also wasn’t as dire as forecast. In 2022, the baseline expectation was for wintertime blackouts since Western European nations were cutting off ties with Russian producers. The price cap on Russian oil, widely expected to whack global supply, was coalescing. While the Continent felt some economic pain—especially in Germany—European nations escaped the worst-case scenarios by finding other energy sources. As for the oil price cap, Russia’s “shadow” fleet of oil tankers have evaded sanctions and sold oil to countries that didn’t comply with Western sanctions—a reminder that no one variable controls global supply and demand.

As for that highly anticipated US recession, it never came. There were pockets of weakness, mostly in manufacturing and goods industries, as businesses retrenched in advance of an expected downturn. Companies worked off some excesses and got lean and mean in preparation for widely expected tough times—and that anticipation ended up mitigating much of a recession’s purpose. Firms are now going on offense, contributing to growth.

Now, to be clear, we aren’t saying all is stellar or global economic conditions are robust. There are soft patches (like Germany). But as Sir John Templeton put it, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Amid that prevalent pessimism two years ago, this bull market began. Stocks didn’t wait for an “all-clear” signal or the data to even start showing improvement. But they looked out to the next 3 – 30 months and recognized the probable reality wasn’t as poor as many believed. This is a reminder: Waiting for perfection—or even “good news”—can be very, very costly."

MY COMMENT

This little article is a good reminder of the FALLACY of all the experts and why you need to be in the markets to capture all the gains and market advances that are NEVER recognized until hindsight.

This article like many pegs the start of the BULL MARKET to October of 2022. Personally I posted in here that the BULL MARKET started in July of 2022.....pointing out that the SP500 was generally positive since that date. BUT.....to many investors this was invisible and we appeared to be caught in the jaws of a nasty bear market till year end 2022 and even into 2023.

BUT....that is past history......we are in the middle of an EPIC bull market right now with no realistic end in sight. I am looking for 1.5 to 3 more years.....of course......the most immediate event that will be a factor in this is the election..

 

OK....here we go. Another negative prediction. BUT....we will have to wait another 3-5 years to see how this all pans out.

Decade of Big S&P 500 Gains Is Over, Goldman Strategists Say

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-decade-big-gains-081931407.html

They are predicting ONLY 3% annualized return for the SP500 over the next ten years. NO.....I dont agree....but regardless I will continue to be.......fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

I opened with a nice gain today.....and....it continues. But the number of stocks that I have in the green has dwindled to 3-4 at the moment. Nicelly NVDA is still doing well for me.

ALL the big market averages are now pushing RED. BUMMER.

Thank you Goldman (see above)......and AI headline trading platforms.

 

HERE is the day so far today.

Stocks slip Monday after S&P 500 and Dow post six-week winning streak

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks fell slightly on Monday after a strong week for the major averages, as investors awaited the release of major corporate earnings reports.

The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 105 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite
gained nearly 0.1%.

Momentum behind the major U.S. indexes’ recent gains may depend on whether companies can beat expectations this earnings season, which is set to ramp up this week. Roughly one-fifth of S&P 500 companies — including major names such as Tesl, Coca-Cola and GE Aerospace— are set to report through Friday.

Thus far, the results have been mixed. Of the 14% of S&P 500 companies that have already posted third-quarter results, 79% have beaten expectations, according to FactSet’s John Butters. However, the magnitude of those beats have been more lackluster.

Investors are largely optimistic equities still have further room to run, but they are mindful that stretched valuations, particularly ahead of the U.S. presidential election and amid rising geopolitical risks, could also mean further choppiness.

Monday’s moves come after both the S&P 500 and 30-stock Dow registered all-time highs on Friday, cementing a sixth straight weekly advance for both benchmarks."

MY COMMENT

Yes....it is earnings reporting season....but....I believe the election is going to cause a lingering waffling market for the next couple of weeks and beyond until the results are known.

As usual we see all the chatter about earnings being lackluster. BS. They are and will continue to be just fine.

I am not going to let short term events have any impact on my investing.....especially politics. I will continue to just slog along for the long term.

AND....even though i use the word "slog".....it has been a historic year-to-date for me in terms of YTD gain in my portfolio. I think this might be the best year I have ever had in my entire investing history. Although......... I cant remember what type of annual gains I was making in the PEAK MSFT early years in about 1990 to 1995......with my big investment in MSFT.

At least this year and my YTD gains.....minimum..... has got to rank in the top 5 of all years for me in the past 55+ years of investing.

 

Speaking of YTD gains. Last Friday at the close my YTD gain for my entire account was.......+61.78%. EXTREMELY CRAZY.

BUT....I know there has got to be other people on here that are beating that gain. Probably TireSmoke and perhaps a few others.

SO....how is anyone else doing at this point in the year? TireSmoke? Anyone else?

 

Yes, TomB16.

NO ONE can predict GDP.........assuming that the data is even remotely accurate.

AI is going to change everything......for the better and for the worse. It has potential to disrupt business and society.