The Long Term Investor

We are now seeing a little pause in the markets with ALL the big averages in the RED. A little bit of profit taing and consolidation going on in the markets.

Nasdaq, S&P 500 hit pause on record-setting rally

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...-pause-on-record-setting-rally-121206900.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The roaring rally in US stocks lost steam on Tuesday as investors assessed whether buying has been overdone and what Donald Trump's cabinet picks mean for policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) traded just below the flat line.

The breather in equities came as Treasury yields ticked higher. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) added about 8 basis points to 4.39%.

Wall Street analysts are signaling that the post-election surge in stocks could soon sputter after lifting the major gauges to record highs. Investors have raised their exposure to US stocks to an 11-year high, Bank of America found, and those bullish bets lay the ground for profit taking, Citi strategists said.

At the same time, the market is pondering the policy impact of Trump's likely cabinet picks. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has been tapped for secretary of state, joining other high-profile China hawks on the team. The prospect of tougher tariffs dragged on Chinese stocks and gave weight to worries that the next president's economic plans could spur inflation

Bitcoin's record-breaking rally put the cryptocurrency within reach of touching $90,000 at one point early Tuesday before its pace slackened. The token was last trading near $86,340, up about 5%.

Other "Trump trades" also lost some fizz. Tesla's (TSLA) stock slipped into the red Tuesday morning, after soaring thanks to CEO Elon Musk's alliance with the incoming president. Crypto-linked stocks Coinbase (COIN) struggled for gains after large increases over the past several sessions.

Focus is starting to turn to Wednesday's report on the consumer price index for October, watched for signs that inflation is cooling as the Federal Reserve desires. Retail sales data on Thursday is another key input for the Fed's policy decision at its December meeting — its last before the Trump administration takes office."

MY COMMENT

It is interesting today to see the financial media and analysts make up BS and story-lines to talk the markets down. As usual very little of this day to day "stuff" will come true or have any actual impact.

BUT....that does not mean it will not have any day to day, short term, impact on the markets. There is going to be a lot of SPECULATIVE NOISE trying to impact the short term markets over the next couple of months.

 

I agree completely with the basic content of this little article........and.....the message here continues to be a common theme of this thread.

50-Year-Old Hits $1 Million in Stock Portfolio, Shares Top 11 Holdings and Tips – 'I Pretty Much Buy and Just Let It Sit'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/50-old-hits-1-million-130442801.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Markets are undergoing postelection euphoria. However, wise investors know that staying invested in the market regardless of short-term ups and downs is the key to long-term financial success.

In January 2018, an investor on r/investing – a discussion board for stock market enthusiasts with over 2.8 million members – shared his success story and investing journey. The investor, who said he was 50 years old, started with about $20,000 in college debt and made about $21,000 in the first year after college.

Starting With Failure – $2,000 to $37

"I opened my first brokerage account with $2,000 in Ameritrade in 1997, thinking I was going to jump on the internet bubble. I bought and sold weekly and rode that baby down. I basically never made any money and when the whole thing crashed, my $2,000 literally got down to $37. So many internet stocks just evaporated."

However, he did not lose hope and kept returning to the market, making some changes to his investing approach:

Focusing on Mutual Funds

"I pretty much focus on mutual funds now after getting my a** handed to me on individual stocks a few times. The few I have left are ‘sentimental.'"

Living Below Means

The investor said "pretty much all" of his portfolio resulted from him putting small amounts of money into the market via 401(k) and IRAs. He lived below his means to save up:

"I bought cheap used cars when I was under 25 but then bought a new car and drove it for 20 years," he added.

Path to $1 Million: ‘Pretty Much Buy and Let It Sit'

He shared screenshots of his portfolio showing holdings and each position's worth. His portfolio's total worth reached just over $1 million as of his post. He shared his investing strategy:

"I pretty much buy and just let it sit. Last time I sold anything was about three years ago when I last rebalanced. I held all through the 2009 recession and lost about 60%. I’ve always invested pretty aggressively, so I got hit hard when it went down, but I’ve recovered well as it’s gone up."

‘Never Tried to Time The Market'

A key lesson from the investor: never try to time the market and be patient.

"I’ve never tried to time the market before, so the last six months isn’t going to change that. I will likely start shifting to more conservative investments at some point, but I’ll probably always have 75%+ in equities..........""

MY COMMENT

There is more to the article covering the various funds and stocks that this investor owns. To me that is not important. What is important are the very simple and very basic concepts above.

It is possible that investing can actually be this simple? It is to me. The key to me is following a few very simple concepts like those above and at the same time picking RATIONAL and REALISTIC funds and stocks for the LONG TERM.

 

I am very happy to see this news as a CMG holder.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Names Scott Boatwright Its Permanent CEO

https://www.tipranks.com/news/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-names-scott-boatwright-its-permanent-ceo

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG +1.79% ▲ has named Scott Boatwright as its new permanent CEO.

Boatwright had been serving as interim CEO of Chipotle after the company’s former top executive, Brian Niccol, departed in the summer to take the helm of coffee chain Starbucks SBUX -0.67% ▼ . Boatwright has worked at Chipotle since 2017.

He takes over as CEO of Chipotle as the company struggles with weak consumer demand following increases to its menu prices. Despite these challenges, Boatwright has declared that he wants to position the burrito chain as a “lifestyle brand” and double the company’s restaurant locations to 7,000.

A Restaurant Industry Veteran

Boatwright is a veteran of the U.S. restaurant industry, having spent 18 years with Arby’s Restaurant Group before joining Chipotle. He was named permanent CEO following “a thorough and rigorous external search process,” said Chipotle in a news release.

Boatwright’s appointment as CEO comes amid a number of executive changes at Chipotle after Niccol’s departure. In August, Chipotle named Adam Rymer as its chief financial officer (CFO), and named Rymer’s predecessor Jack Hartung as chief strategy officer.

Chipotle’s stock plunged when Niccol’s exit was announced, but it has since risen nearly 15%. Year-to-date, CMG stock is up 30%. The shares underwent a 50-for-1 split in June."

MY COMMENT

I like this company as a long term....non-tech.....holding. It is still a "training-wheels" holding for me as I get used to the business and watch the stock. BUT....I am very hopeful that this company will become a nice long term holding for me.

I see this new CEO as the BEST option for the company and continued success.

On this news CMG is up by $1.21.......2.04%....at this moment.

 

The BIG EVENT for the markets will take place next week. NVDA will report on November 20 after the close. As usual I am looking forward to a BIG BEAT when they report.

Even more important I am looking forward to their guidance and comments on Blackwell and business demand in general.

 

I have not looked yet today....but I know what my nine stocks are doing and I expect that I have a nice GAIN so far today. Any time NVDA is up over $3 Is a good day for me.

 

OK....I just looked at my account today. I have a nice medium gain going so far....about enough to make up for what I lost yesterday.

I currently have six of nine stocks up today. My RED stocks so far are.....GOOGL, HD, and PLTR.

I am not surprised by HD....a good earnings beat but I suspect it is down based on guidance. I have a good....."feeling".....for the markets today and where we will close. At least in my stocks....I am liking what I am seeing in terms of maturing into the day....so far.

 

LOL....Lori might be feeling a little better today with her TSLA sale since the stock is down by 4.61% today.

I do believe that this stock will continue to be very VOLATILE......and....I would not be surprised to see much of the recent gains given back.....since much of the recent action has been based on short term political news and NOT the fundamentals of the company.

I am not interested in this company....although I am a HUGE fan of Elon Musk and what he has done. I would not be interested in chasing this stock at the moment. I think it has gotten ahead of itself.

 

I am seeing the same thing TireSmoke. It is like Halloween did not exist due to the election. And now.....Thanksgiving has been skipped to just go straight to Christmas.

I saw a house in our neighborhood last night that I could see a big lit up Christmas tree in the living room.

We have a lot of outdoor lights up in our neighborhood. But....they are probably up for the "Festival Of Lights". We have a good number of people from India here in our area of 4200 homes and they usually have their lights on for Festival Of Lights in late October early November and than they leave them up for Christmas.

 

I was just playing with some performance numbers in my daughters account at Schwab.

The MAX time period it will let me look at is 12-31-2016 to 11-11-2024. For this time span the account is showing an ANNUALIZED RETURN of 17.12%......after accounting for contributions to the account. The SP5500 over that same time span has an ANNUALIZED RETURN of 15.34%.

Some other data that I see:

Three months +20.25%
Year To Date +39.09%
Year 2023 +31.42%
One Year +50.06%

I was looking at the account to make a final adjustment to the portfolio......so the nine stocks are now approximately 50% and the funds are approximately 50%. I will now let the portfolio simply RUN AS IT WISHES with no re-balancing.

To make the adjustment above I sold about $36,000 in the SP500 Index fund and the fidelity Contra fund and invested approximately $4000 each in each of the nine stocks. (the portfolio is the same holdings as mine and all other family portfolios)

I have been slowly working toward getting the portfolio to where it contains all nine of my stocks. I have also been slowly working towards getting the portfolio to 50/50 between the funds and the stocks.

I started her out in ONLY the SP500 and fidelity Contra Fund......with an automatic monthly addition to the SP500 of $500 per month.

Once the account got large enough I started to add various individual stocks until I got all nine of my stocks into the portfolio. Of course.......NVDA is an OVERSIZE position in the account.....as in all of my accounts.

Her husband also has a brokerage account that contains the same investments as my daughter and all my accounts. Between the two of them they are just shy of the $750,000 Milestone.

I should mention that both of them have an amazing pension plan through work....so these two accounts are taxable brokerage accounts.....NOT...retirement accounts.

AND...random note....in these two accounts PLTR is a FULL position.

 

I will also mention that it has been many, many, many, years since my personal two accounts were anywhere close to 50/50. The stock side far outweighs the fund side of my two personal accounts.....and has for a long time now.

It makes it EASY for me to manage things to have all the same stocks and funds in ALL family accounts that I manage.

AND....of course.....for me and all the various family accounts........the allocation of stocks and funds that I have constitute an......AGGRESSIVE....portfolio. PROBABLY NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY PEOPLE.

 

Regarding SUITABILITY mentioned above. the fact that my daughter and her husband are under an AMAZING PENSION PLAN....allows me to be aggressive in their taxable brokerage accounts.

AND....for others that are reading this thread.....they are both in the 40-44 age group.

 

A very difficult question Bigmaix.

I have NO PLANS to sell any of my NVDA. I am in for the long term.

BUT....I am sure many other investors are taking profits along the way and diversifying into their other stocks. They dont want to have all their eggs in one basket or be way overexposed to NVDA.

So basically....your question has no answer excerpt for......WHAT IS BEST FOR YOU PERSONALLY. I dont think I or anyone else can answer what is best for you personally.

 

A good day today for me....ending with a strong medium gain. I had only three stocks down today.....COST, PLTR, and HD.

I got in a nice beat on the SP500 today by.....1.38%.