I have to agree. Seems very politically driven, what with Daddy Elon's face plastered all over the place next to Trump's. Perhaps he is looking for some juicy subsidies... Add me to the list of people who do not plan to sell off any NVDA. I see nothing but full steam ahead with them. They have the GPU/AI market in the bag. As long as Jensen is at the helm, I do not see their position at the top changing at all. But with anything, things can change, and I will still keep my ear to the ground.
Totally agree, RTN. nVidea can put out an ARM CPU with the best graphics in the business. That sounds like a slam dunk to me. NVDA has far more credibility and mind share in this space than Qualcomm.
It did make me a feel a little better if I'm honest lol. It shouldn't have though. I'm a huge fan of Elon; I want him to do well. I shouldn't be complaining about anything. My portfolio is doing very well.
A nice little article. 6,000 Is the New S&P 5000 Record highs and arbitrary round numbers tell you nothing about the future. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/6000-is-the-new-sp-5000 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "All hail! The S&P 500 closed Monday at 6,001.35! All ye who have been waiting for it to hit the mystical 6,001 mark, rejoice! What, not round enough for you? Ok fine, by closing at 6,001.35, the S&P 500 notched another milestone: Its first close above 6,000. This, after registering its 50th record high this year last Friday (in price-only terms). Cool achievements! While milestones are fun trivia, if arbitrary, they don’t tell you where stocks are headed next—worth keeping in mind as sentiment continues to warm. Friday’s record isn’t just this year’s 50th. It is also this bull market’s 50th. (Again, that is in price-only terms.) The first all-time high came on January 19, 2024—about three months after this bull market turned one. Since then, the records have come in spurts: After 22 new highs in Q1, the S&P 500 delivered 9 in Q2, 12 in Q3 and 8 (through Monday’s close) in Q4. For visual learners, here is a chart. Exhibit 1: S&P 500’s 50 All-Time Highs Source: FactSet, as of 11/11/2024. S&P 500 Price Index, 1/4/2022 – 11/8/2024. These landmarks reflect where stocks have been, but don’t overrate their meaning. As this year’s records illustrate, there isn’t much meaning to stocks’ closing price. Records often come in clumps, punctuated by volatility. After the S&P 500 delivered six new highs in a row in early July, it registered none from mid-July to mid-September. The same goes for index levels. Yes, “S&P 500 at 6000” gets eyeballs. (Although likely not as many as the more poetic S&P 5000 got.) But the S&P 500 Total Return Index just made its way over 13,000 (and passed 6,000 back in July 2019).[ii] We didn’t see headlines cheering these milestones—or that the S&P 500 delivered its first all-time high on a total return basis of this bull market on December 13 last year (and is up to 61 records through last Friday). Yet total return better reflects the investor experience since it includes price change plus reinvested dividends. Focusing on price returns alone means missing out on the cash payment and that cash’s appreciation (or depreciation) when reinvested—which can contribute considerably to an investor’s overall return. Plus, round numbers rack up faster as an index swells and a thousand-point gap becomes smaller in percentage terms. Case in point, it was February of this year that we celebrated the S&P 500’s hitting 5,000. We noted then that 6,000 was a mere 20% price return away. Well, we got there—and now, from 6,000, getting to 7,000 would be just 16.7%. And 8,000’s percentage gap would be smaller still. However you measure it, all-time highs sing a similar song about a bull market’s climb—meaning, that it happened. But records don’t tell you what stocks will do next. Sure, the longer a bull market lasts, the more all-time highs stocks likely generate. During the 1990s bull market, the S&P 500 recorded 308 new highs in price terms.[iii] During the 2009 – 2020 run, US stocks recorded 255.[iv] But a yearslong equity upturn doesn’t automatically mean scores of highs, either. The 2002 – 2007 bull had just nine, and the S&P 500 took just over four and a half years to reach its first one—and then entered a bear market a little over four months later.[v] In contrast, during the 2020 – 2022 bull market, the S&P 500 needed just six months to register a new price-index high—and it ended up with 91 records.[vi] At some point, this bull market will log its last record. But we probably won’t know that at the moment. Turning points are clear only in hindsight. While stock index records aren’t a forecasting tool, they can shed some insight on how investors are feeling in the moment. In new bull markets, all-time highs often lead to calls of stocks going “too far, too fast.” Investors’ acrophobia (the fear of heights) tends to reflect pessimism or skepticism, spurring concerns that markets are “disconnected” from reality and don’t realize how poor economic conditions are—which supposedly makes a pullback inevitable. We aren’t hearing this kind of chatter right now. Instead, we see calls that S&P 500 6000 reflects a “psychologically significant milestone” that could invite more investment and bring in money from the sidelines. Our fundamental issues with that thinking aside—“cash on the sidelines” isn’t really a thing, as stocks exist in an auction marketplace where eagerness to pay matters more than cash available—this kind of view indicates folks are feeling optimistic overall. That confidence isn’t necessarily unwarranted. But warming moods also make the environment more fertile for complacency—which is worth guarding against in a maturing bull market." MY COMMENT I dont try to predict anything....based on anything. I also dont care about complacency. I am simply fully invested all the time. BUT....I have to admit it is nice to see stocks hitting records.....often.
HERE is the CPI.....looks good to me for a continuation of rate cuts in December. Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/cpi-inflation-october-2024.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The consumer price index increased 0.2% in October, taking the 12-month inflation rate up to 2.6%. Both numbers were in line with expectations. The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. Despite signs of inflation moderating elsewhere, shelter prices continued to be a major contributor to the CPI move. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for workers increased 0.1% for the month and 1.4% from a year ago. Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The consumer price index, which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September. The readings were both in line with the Dow Jones estimates. Excluding food and energy, the move was even more pronounced. The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. Stock market futures nudged higher following the release while Treasury yields fell. Energy costs, which had been declining in recent months, were flat in October while the food index increased 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, energy was off 4.9% while food was up 2.1%. Despite signs of inflation moderating elsewhere, shelter prices continued to be a major contributor to the CPI move. The shelter index, which carries about a one-third weighting in the broader index, climbed another 0.4% in October, double its September move and up 4.9% on an annual basis. The category was responsible for more than half the gain in the all-items CPI measure, according to the BLS. Used vehicle costs also rose, up 2.7% on the month while motor vehicle insurance declined 0.1% but was still higher by 14% for the 12-month period. Airline fares jumped 3.2% while eggs tumbled 6.4% but were still 30.4% higher from a year ago. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for workers increased 0.1% for the month and 1.4% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate report. The readings took inflation further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal and could complicate the central bank’s monetary policy strategy going forward, particularly with a new administration taking over the White House in January. “No surprises from the CPI, so for now the Fed should be on course to cut rates again in December. Next year is a different story, though, given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and other Trump administration policies,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “The markets are already weighing the possibility that the Fed will cut fewer times in 2025 than previously thought, and that they may hit the pause button as early as January.” President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to implement more tariffs and government spending have the potential both to boost growth and aggravate inflation, which remains a substantial problem for U.S. households despite easing off its meteoric peak in mid-2022. Consequently, traders in recent days have scaled back their anticipation for Fed rate cuts ahead. The central bank already has lopped off 0.75 percentage point from its key borrowing rate and had been expected to move aggressively ahead. However, traders now expect just another three-quarters of a point in cuts through the end of 2025, about half a point less than priced in before the presidential election." MY COMMENT NO....I dont care what...."traders"....are pricing in. I also think this concept of....CORE INFLATION....is simply DUMB. Who cares what inflation is without food or energy. All that matters is TOTAL inflation. Taking some items out is not an option for business or consumers.....they have to pay for everything.
WOW. Super Micro delays filing September-quarter report as delisting looms https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-delays-filing-september-112648377.html At this point a massive KNIFE hurtling toward earth at terminal velocity.......dont try to catch it.
Not a bad start to the day....although big tech is generally in the RED. I have five stocks GREEN right now. PLTR, AMZN, COST, HD, and CMG. My non-tech stocks are carrying me today....so far. That is them doing their job today......and....is why I own them.
Ok.....I am going to add my.....SAD TALE.....of selling an asset. Some time ago...perhaps just a couple of years ago......I had a little bit over a single Bitcoin. I sold it for about $12,000 to use for some purpose....I cant even remember what...perhaps an art purchase. NOW....Bitcoin at $92,000. MAJOR BUMMER. I should have held that one coin forever. Now I have a small fraction of one Bitcoin left. I checked it the other day....it is worth about $1400. That should make LORI feel better about selling her TSLA. BUT.......whatever. Hindsight is 20/20........I never look back......well not too much. I did check my former MSFT position that I sold out in about 2002 on a stock gain calculator not too long ago. If I had held those shares from purchase in 1990 to now.....they would now be worth......$65MILLION DOLLARS.
PLTR is currently getting most of my weekly deposit. I owned it two years ago, then got out. Got back in 6 months ago and have been loading up. Making me very happy I circled back on it. I have also been in on SOFI for a few years. Almost bailed a few months ago, but I'm actually looking at adding to that hold soon. No real guidance other than seeing that analysts have been upgrading their valuations.
Oh my...you pulled a Cathie Wood on that one. No, I am just kidding on that seriously. MSFT had an epic run from about 1989 through 1999. I think during that whole time it had one down year of about -5% and really big gains on all other years. Of course, in 2000 the run ended in massive fashion and fell -62.84% that year. Then it got back up off of the mat the following year and gained around + 52.72%...short of recovering. In 2002 it gave back about half of the prior years gains at -21.96%. MSFT then did okay the following few years...until the 2008 GFC. It fell -44.39% that year. (So did a lot of other things.) In 2009 it fought back to the tune of + 60.50%...and followed up the next two years with negative returns in both years of -4% and -6%. After that, it went on another epic run from 2012 all the way to....you guessed it...2022. It lost around -28.02%. Turned around in 2023 and gained that back and then some. 2024 it is at about +15%. A nice little history to go along with the above that WXYZ mentioned. And yes, this ties in to our recent discussion about hanging on versus selling, or making a decision and watching the opposite happen. We all look at those things and ponder....maybe what could have been. Sometimes seriously and sometimes just for fun. The point is, there are a lot of things between point A and Z. It is always easy to look back and think about it. The reason it is easy to do so, we are not attaching the emotion to it. There were some emotional times for investors in some of that history....serious times in fact. Both ends of the spectrum are very interesting to look at I think.
Yes....Smokie.....the history of MSFT above is a good lesson in the up and down action of the markets and the usual upward BIAS over the long term. Plus between 1990 and 2000 it split......MANY times....that is how I made what I made on that stock: "Microsoft (MSFT) has split its stock nine times, most recently in February 2003: September 21, 1987:A 2-for-1 split, meaning each share was split into two April 16, 1990:Another 2-for-1 split June 27, 1991:A 3-for-2 split, meaning shareholders received one and a half shares for each share owned June 15, 1992:Another 3-for-2 split May 23, 1994:A 2-for-1 split December 9, 1996:A 2-for-1 split February 23, 1998:A 2-for-1 split March 29, 1999:A 2-for-1 split" February 18, 2003:A 2-for-1 split" I have no regret regarding selling all MSFT in 2002. That holding made me a lot of money before I sold....somewhere between $3MILLION and $5MILLION and that money did a lot for my life and family over many decades. It was a BIG FACTOR in being able to retire early in life at age 49. PLUS.....I now have the pleasure of owning.....TWO.....YES TWO.....once in a lifetime stocks now that NVDA is in that category. I am strongly HOPING that NVDA will.....over the next ten years.....do for me what MSFT did for me.
WELCOME.....BROTEAU. Keep up the good investing work and keep up the posting. it is nice to have fresh members and commentary. (although I see that you have posted a few times in the past)
I got out of the day with only a small loss. Not bad for a day when NVDA is down....since it dominates my portfolio. I also lost out to the SP500 today by 0.32%. I am still happy with the day....I had six stocks making progress in the green. AND three of them tacked on some good gains today....AMZN, HD, and PLTR. So in spite of losing a little money....I consider it an ok day.
I think the markets are starting to experience a little bit of post-election droop. The adrenaline has worn off and all the excitement and drama is fading. People are somewhat disconnecting from politics and getting back more into normal life. I think that is impacting the markets on days like today.....not horrible, but, just kind of blah. I guess in the old days we would call it...CONSOLIDATION. In fact that is what I would call it now. The markets are also pausing...... partly in anticipation of the NVDA earnings on November 20.....just a week from now. I STILL very much like where we are in the markets right now. We are all set up for a good year end and a very good start to the year in 2025.
We are open for the day......all GREEN across the big averages. I will ignore the markets to let them settle into the day some and do my usual scanning and reading.
