The Long Term Investor

I have discussed this data many times on here. It is the basis for the....PROBABILITY....of success as a long term investor.

You have a 72% chance of making money in stocks in 2025
Why it’s short-sighted to bet against the market in 2025 — or any year

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/y...ng-money-in-stocks-in-2025-ab451d86?st=eUDoFY

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"There’s a 73% probability the U.S. stock market will rise in 2025. These odds seem too good to be true, of course, since the market this year has already produced a well-above-average return — 28.2% as of Dec. 16, as measured by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF

That’s triple the U.S. market’s average calendar-year return of 9.2% going back to 1794 (according to the database constructed by Edward McQuarrie, an emeritus professor at Santa Clara [Calif.] University).

Yet the market’s odds of rising in a given year are remarkably indifferent to what came before. Based on all calendar years in McQuarrie’s database, the market’s odds of rising in any given year are 73%. Following calendar years in which stocks rose, those odds are a statistically indistinguishable 72%.

What about five-calendar-year periods over which the market rose? Those odds would apply to 2025, since over the past five years the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has produced a 14.9% annualized return. The odds of the market rising in a calendar year following five-year gains are once again statistically similar — 72%.


What are the odds when coming off decade-long advances, such as the last one — over which the Vanguard ETF has produced a 13.4% annualized return. Following 10-year periods in which the market rose, the odds of the market rising in the subsequent calendar year are 73%. (These odds are plotted in the chart above.)

A gambling analogy helps illustrate what these statistics mean. Ask yourself: What odds would you place on a coin flip coming up heads if it had come up heads in each of the five previous flips? Or if the previous five flips had each come up tails? Many of us give different answers to these two hypotheticals, as if the odds that apply to the sixth flip have anything to do with what came before. They do not, of course, since the coin has no memory: The odds of that sixth flip coming up heads are always 50%. To think otherwise is to be guilty of what is known as the gambler’s fallacy.

It makes theoretical sense that the same is true of the stock market. If the odds of the market rising in a given calendar year were actually correlated with what had come before, then shrewd traders wouldn’t wait until January of that next year to exploit that correlation. They would instead place their bets in the preceding November or December, with the consequence that the gain or loss that otherwise would occur in that year would be transferred to those prior months. The net effect would be the correlation’s disappearance.

You may have other reasons to expect equities to do particularly well or poorly in 2025, of course. The stock market is extremely overvalued, for example, according to almost any valuation measure with a decent long-term record. But valuation only exerts its gravitational pull on the market over long periods of time, such as a decade. Over shorter periods, including calendar years, valuation indicators have relatively little predictive ability.

The bottom line? Based only on how the stock market performed this year, the odds of the stock market rising in 2025 are no higher or lower than they would be if equities were currently sitting on a big year-to-date loss."

MY COMMENT

This FACT......plus the FACT of compounding and the Rule of 72's......are the guts of why I invest and why I invest the way I do for the long term.

One thing I try to do is reduce investing to a single factor......PROBABILITY.

This is why EVERYTHING that I do as an investor is based on the academic research....if there is any on a particular issue of how to invest.

 

HERE is my basic view on NVDA......and why I continue to hold my entire position even though it now dominates my entire portfolio.

Every Investor Should Own the “Stock of the Decade”… but They Shouldn’t Stop There
It has one thing in common with previous big winners…

https://investorplace.com/smartmoney/2024/12/stock-of-the-decade-but-dont-stop-there/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The year is almost up. That means we’re at a time when people begin to reflect on the previous year – what went right, what went wrong, etc.

If you thought AI and ChatGPT were disruptive… You won’t believe what’s coming next. In short… AI has evolved.

We’re almost at the midpoint of the decade, too. And this has me thinking about my time in this business, which has been over four decades now.

Looking back, I’ve been blessed to have more than my fair share of winners. And that’s thanks in large part to Stock Grader .

It led me to Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN), the original supplier of McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) for its Chicken McNuggets. Tyson was left with a lot of leftover “chicken parts” as the demand for McNuggets soared. So, the company decided to make its own “Chicken Chunks,” creating a monopoly out of a new way to eat chicken.

Its operating margins expanded and created windfall earnings, and my members made over 900% in the stock.

Then, there’s Conair Corp., a personal care company that specializes in hair products. Conair created a handheld hair-drying product in the early 1980s when “big hair” was the biggest fashion trend. As demand rose and people wanted bigger hair, the watts of hairdryers rose from 800 to 1,200, then to 1,800 and up. This fueled Conair’s explosion of earnings.

Once competition came in a few years later, I decided to recommend selling Conair… and my subscribers made over 1,000% in profits!

Now, I can confidently tell you that most people are lucky to have one 1,000% gainer in their life. For a really good analyst? Maybe once a decade.

So, how have I been able to pick out these huge winners before they really pop? Well, it’s quite simple really… some of the biggest winners of my career all had one thing in common…

They all had monopolistic characteristics. In other words, they were so dominant, there were virtually no competitors. This is what led to their amazing returns.

Given this, I think I know what the “Stock of the Decade” will be when the 2020s are over.

I’m talking about Nvidia Corp. (NVDA).

In this letter, I’ll explain why.

We’ll also take a closer look at Nvidia’s business and how I found the stock before the AI Revolution started.

Finally, I’ll lay out why I expect the AI Revolution to continue way beyond Nvidia… and where to learn how you can profit from it.

Nvidia and the Dawn of the AI Revolution

Nvidia is a leading computer graphics chip company that makes graphics processing units (GPUs).

Originally, such graphics chips were only prized by video game enthusiasts. But it turns out that Nvidia’s GPUs have a wide range of powerful applications. They can be used to aid computers in applications like financial modeling, oil and gas exploration, virtual reality, and even in self-driving cars.

Indeed, in the late 2010s, Nvidia began receiving some unusual orders. Not only were crypto enthusiasts buying up high-end GPUs to mine cryptocurrency… but machine-learning researchers were also using the cards to train their models.

It turns out that GPUs are really good for something called “parallelization.” This is where you break down a large computational task into smaller ones that can be calculated independently and simultaneously.

That makes GPUs extremely powerful – far more than even the best central processing units (CPUs) in these types of computations.

Data storage provider Pure Storage estimates that GPUs are roughly three times faster than an equivalent CPU for machine-learning algorithms. That is an enormous advantage in a world where large AI models can require months to train and cost millions of dollars.

That put Nvidia on the fast track to success. And thanks to its portfolio of valuable patents and internal research, the Silicon Valley company got an enormous head start on the AI Revolution.

No other company came close.

Why I Recommended Nvidia

What originally got me excited about Nvidia was what it was doing with the development of autonomous vehicles. My son was an engineering student at Stanford University when they debuted an autonomous race car named “Shelley” that used Nvidia chips.

But in 2019, when I learned what the company was planning to do with AI, I pulled the trigger and added it to my Growth Investor Buy List. Since then, NVDA stock has been on a tear, and members of Growth Investor are now sitting on a whopping 3,300% gain!


The reason behind Nvidia’s stunning growth? Its AI chips.

Back in March 2022, Nvidia unveiled the Hopper chip. It was a significant advancement in GPU technology, specifically designed to meet the growing demands of AI computing.

So, it’s no surprise that roughly $19.4 billion of the company’s $26 billion in revenue from its most recent quarter can be attributed to Hopper.

Then, before we knew it, ChatGPT launched in November of that same year, and the AI Revolution truly took off.

The rest, as they say, is history.

To stay ahead of the competition, Nvidia introduced Blackwell in March 2024. This is a brand-new GPU that is set to succeed Hopper. It is reportedly 2.5 times faster and 25 times more energy efficient.

In other words, it’s a game-changer.

What sets the Blackwell GPU apart is that it is for generative AI, which is “machine learning.”

Nvidia’s AI chip competitors – including Intel Corp. (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) – are not experts in machine learning. They are primarily developing chips for AI devices that optimize correlating data sets to learn preferences and habits rather than machine learning to solve problems and provide solutions.

So, Nvidia effectively has a monopoly. And as it develops even more powerful GPU successors to Blackwell, I do not expect any competitor to “crack” that dominance.

I should also add that demand for Blackwell has been insatiable, with Big Tech names like Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Meta Platforms Inc. (META) lining up to get all they can get their hands on.

It’s reported that Blackwell is sold out for the next 12 months. So, once these new chips are in full production – and in peak demand – the company’s business is set to explode even further.

This leads me right into why NVDA is the stock of the decade…

Why NVDA Is the Stock of the Decade

Through the end of this decade, the transistors in each of Nvidia’s chips will be approaching the “atomic” level, so sheer physics may prohibit it from making its chips any faster.

So, looking beyond this decade, Nvidia plans to utilize quantum computing. This is a form of computing that essentially utilizes 1’s AND 0’s to perform calculations instead of a 1 or a 0, like traditional computing.

Now, quantum computers have traditionally been cost-prohibitive except for government agencies and some universities.

But I predict Nvidia will help lead the charge to a breakthrough in this field in order to help speed up generative AI after its GPUs hit their physical limits. In fact, Nvidia has a quantum cloud simulator up and running right now.

The point is that Nvidia is miles ahead of the competition.

Now, I must disclose that Nvidia is grossly overweighted in my portfolios. But I have no intention of recommending selling this stock anytime in the next few years.

Eventually, companies do lose their “edge.” Another more innovative company comes along with a better product and eats their lunch.

But I don’t see that happening anytime soon with Nvidia.

To put it bluntly: I have never found a company as monopolistic and as powerful as Nvidia.

Since the company is expected to dominate generative AI GPUs with virtually no competition in sight, I think it’s worth holding the stock through the end of the decade.

And even after that, I expect Nvidia to shift gears and then dominate quantum computing to further speed up generative AI.

A New Wave of the AI Revolution

That being said, no investor can afford to buy one stock and stand pat… even if it’s the stock of the decade.

The good news is that I predict we’re going to see the AI Revolution broaden out as we enter the second half of this decade.

That’s because the AI Revolution is only just getting started.

Starting next year, I predict we’re going to see the debut of new, much more powerful “thinking” AI models – models that are capable of reasoning in addition to pattern recognition. And once they are released to the public, they will drastically change the economic landscape, much like the internet did in the late ‘90s – only faster.

This second wave will be the new driving force of AI. And it’s going to be one of the most disruptive events we’ve witnessed. It will unleash incredible efficiencies and economic activity.

But it will also usher in layoffs and lead to an even further widening of the wealth gap in America."

MY COMMENT

This is a......"sales pitch"....article. BUT...that does not mean it is wrong. I think what is above is....spot on. AND....combined with EPIC future earnings that will come as a result WILL make NVDA a once in a lifetime stock.

HOWEVER....what if I am wrong? Well at some point the writing will be on the wall and I will simply sell some or all my position. Hopefully......with a huge profit.

BUT.....PLEASE.....I am not posting this to encourage ownership of this stock or gambling in this stock. There is a simple way to enjoy the benefit of this company with little of the single stock risk......invest in the SP500 Index.

Like the article above I first become aware of NVDA because of self-driving vehicles. I thought they were the wave of the future so I started to learn about this company. This.....LUCK....caused me to have some awareness of the company when it became dominant in GPU's. My earliest purchase of NVDA came in 2021.

I still see this stock as a once in a lifetime company....even starting from today. BUT......only time will tell. I have NO WAY of knowing if this will all pan out in the end....but....I am looking at this based on....what I think is....PROBABILITY. The key being......"I think".

 

I see that the markets did a late day COLLAPSE....in the NASDAQ and SP500. Just RIDICULOUS......but.....WHATEVER.

I ended the day with a medium gain and beat the SP500 by 0.61%.

The SP500 peaked today at 2:00......and than steadily collapsed over the next hour. There is obviously a......LOT.....of fear and semi-panic still lingering with investors right now.

COURAGE......ENDURE.....PATIENCE.

 

Thank goodness for their new CEO. This company might actually be worth owning in 3-6 months. Emphasis on....."might".

Nike beat low expectations as investors look for turnaround under new CEO Elliott Hill

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif

 

New day.....same old market. The normal short term markets are now usually based on....NOTHING. So why not have a little correction that is....based on NOTHING.

At least we are not too far from forth quarter earnings in a few weeks.

LOL.....the flighty....scared of its own shadow....market continues. What does it all mean....well of course....NOTHING.....in terms of companies and business. It says a lot about investors.....however.

 

I like this little article.

The Fed’s Cut, Traders and Volatility
Daily wiggles are often illogical.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ommentary/the-feds-cut-traders-and-volatility

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The Fed cut its benchmark short-term interest rate by another -0.25 percentage point Wednesday, which investors seemingly wanted. And in his post-meeting press conference, Fed head Jerome Powell called the economy “strong,” which we reckon investors should also want. So naturally, the S&P 500 fell -2.9% on the day. As always, we suggest not reading into Fed chatter and daily swings, no matter how big.

Far be it from us to pin market movement on any one thing. But in this case, given the volatility was concentrated in the trading day’s final two hours—and the nature of all the typical accompanying commentary that overthinks all things Fed—it seems safe to say traders fixated on the prospect of fewer rate cuts next year. Some pointed to the Fed’s infamous “dot plot” of members’ interest rate projections, which showed the median projection is now two cuts in 2025. Most pointed to Powell’s comments, which included these nuggets: “If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2 percent, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly,” and, “From here, it’s a new phase, and we’re going to be cautious about further cuts.”[ii] The general consensus is that, absent a renewed inflation slowdown, the Fed will moderate its rate-cutting pace.

So let us sum all this up for you: The economy is stronger than the Fed previously expected, which logically should support profit growth, but investors owning a slice of those future earnings dumped shares because we may get one or two fewer -0.25 percentage point rate cuts. This is the illogic of sentiment-driven moves illustrated, in our view. Powell’s words allude to an economy that is growing fine and doesn’t need Fed “help.” Nothing in Powell’s comments implied the Fed sees an economy at risk of overheating. It was all kind of bland, maybe even Goldilocks. Not a reason to suddenly sour on stocks’ prospects.

At times like this, it is vital to discern between investing and trading. A lot of day-to-day market activity is the latter. Amateurs, professionals and computers making short-term plays, based on any number of assumptions about patterns and the market’s technicalities. A lot of it derives from algorithms and expectations about what other traders will do. A lot of these folks will probably buy tomorrow or next week, making new short-term plays based on new assumptions about markets’ patterns and other investors’ behavior. Round and round and round it all goes.

This happens every day, and it is part of why markets don’t move in straight lines in bull or bear markets. Stocks zig-zag, always. Bull markets and bear markets are simply the general trend of those zig zags once you zoom out. A lot of the time, the zigs and zags are mild. Sometimes they are big. Today was one of those sometimes. But it doesn’t mean one iota for what comes next, in terms of volatility or trend. It doesn’t automatically predict—or not predict—more big swings. Nor does it automatically predict—or not predict—a correction (sharp, sentiment-fueled drop of -10% to -20%). Or a bull market. Or a bear market. It is just one day, and it would hardly be the first time stocks endured a big daily drop during a bull market.

With that said, it is entirely possible a correction is underway. Because corrections swing on sentiment, they are impossible to predict and time with any certainty. But Fisher Investments founder and Executive Chairman Ken Fisher calls the stock market “The Great Humiliator” (TGH) for a reason: It loves to make as many people look as foolish as possible. Today, in mid-to-late December, we are in the midst of the traditional Santa Claus rally season. It would be very TGH for stocks to take a thumping instead of a Santa rally. We wouldn’t enjoy it. No one would. But volatility and corrections should never really be a huge surprise. They are always possible, for any or no reason.

Corrections are normal, and they are calls for patience, not action. Ditto daily volatility. So stay cool. Take time to assess the fundamental landscape and whether stocks’ outlook for the next 3 – 30 months has changed. Look carefully for risks—particularly risks that get scant attention. Look also for the negatives everyone is talking about, to see what does and doesn’t currently have surprise power. Think critically and carefully and take your time.

We are hard at work doing the same and will share our forecast for the coming year in due course. But whatever we think stocks are likely to do over the next year-plus, it will depend on forward-looking factors. Not what stocks did today because of something one Fed person said."

MY COMMENT

EXACTLY. Simply ignore all the noise.....all the turmoil....all the flailing around.....all the fools. Has anything chnaged with the fundamental outlook of what you own? Are the business prospects different this week with the companies you own....based on anything the FED did or said? I doubt it.

It is all simply market NOISE.....highly amplified by the media.

 

It now appears that the markets are trying to do the above....as the big averages are either green now....or in the case of the NASDAQ moving that way.

 

I am seeing a few articles today in the financial media about the pending....government shut-down.

I have one word....IRRELEVANT. I have gone through many of these fake shut-downs over my life. They are always meaningless.

So.....a bunch of government workers that are ALL....."working"..... from home anyway....will just continue to stay home for a few days. It is amazing that we have hundreds of government building siting in DC with no one in them except for the janitors.

If one of these shut-downs ever lasts long enough the people will see that we can function just fine with about 90% of government shut-down. In fact....we might even be better off.

Elon Musk showed us this when he got rid of 75% to 80% of the "necessary" work force at Twitter. AND....that was a private business. I imagine you could get rid of about 50% to 80% of all government workers with no impact on the average person.

You know with AI and tech we constantly see lay-offs in private business.....to increase productivity. When is the last time you saw an article that government was going to cut 100 workers....much less 10,000.

"More than 10,000 jobs to be cut at VW in next years, says Manager Magazin"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif

 

Definitely a reason for a stock market freak out......NOT.

U.S. economy grows at 3.1% pace in third quarter, an upgrade from previous estimate

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-ec...f-8jlcqOmp62GxLKMaFT2rEshtmpjFuQTBOCiLZsmL3Lp

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (AP) — The American economy grew at a healthy 3.1% annual clip from July through September, propelled by vigorous consumer spending and an uptick in exports, the government said in an upgrade to its previous estimate.

Third-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product — the economy's output of goods and services — accelerated from the April-July rate of 3% and continued to look sturdy despite high interest rates, the Commerce Department said Thursday. GDP growth has now topped 2% in eight of the last nine quarters.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, expanded at a 3.7% pace, fastest since the first quarter of 2023 and an uptick from Commerce’s previous third-quarter estimate of 3.5%.

Exports climbed 9.6%. Business investment grew a lackluster 0.8%, but investment in equipment expanded 10.8%. Spending and investment by the federal government jumped 8.9%, including a 13.9% surge in defense spending.

American voters were unimpressed by the steady growth under Democratic President Joe Biden. Exasperated by prices that remain 20% higher than they were when an inflationary surge began in early 2021, they chose last month to send Donald Trump back to the White House with Republican majorities in the House and Senate.

Trump will inherit an economy that looks healthy overall. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2% even though it is up from the 53-year low 3.4% reached in April 2023. Inflation hit a four-decade high 9.1% in mid-2002. Eleven interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023 helped bring it down — to 2.7% last month. That is above the Fed's 2% target. But the central bank still felt comfortable enough with the progress against inflation to cut its benchmark rate Wednesday for the third time this year.

The president-elect has promised sweeping changes in economic policy, including cutting taxes, imposing big tariffs on foreign goods and deporting millions of immigrants who work in the United States illegally. Many economists fear those policies will fuel higher inflation.

“This week’s data show the economy is set to end 2024 on a solid note, which is fortunate since we’ll have to contend with heightened policy uncertainty and possibly greater challenges in 2025,” Oren Klachkin, an economist at Nationwide, wrote in a commentary.

Within the GDP data, a category that measures the economy’s underlying strength rose at a solid 3.4% annual rate from July through September, an upgrade from the previous estimate and up from 2.7% in the April-June quarter. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending.

Wednesday’s report also contained some encouraging news on inflation. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge — called the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE — rose at just a 1.5% annual pace last quarter, down from 2.5% in the second quarter. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core PCE inflation was 2.2%, up modestly from the previous estimate but down from 2.8% in the April-June quarter.

Thursday's report was the Commerce Department's third and final look at third-quarter GDP. It will publish its initial estimate of October-December growth on Jan. 30."

MY COMMENT

Hello stock markets.....even short term markets.....DUH.

 

You know in the end....it seems like we have now reached MAXIMUM CHAOS in how the markets operate.

It seems like the markets now rarely remember that the stocks that are the guts of the market....and the reason they exist....are actually....GASP....businesses.

YES.....those businesses actually do better when the economy is.....GASP.....good. AND....the reverse is also true....the economy is good when.....GASP....business is doing well.

It also seems like there are....at least some percentage of investors.....that also have forgotten the above.

 

"I feel good...duh, duh, duh,duh,duh, duh duh,......I knew that I would now"...etc, etc, etc....."James Brown".

My view of the markets today......as all the big averages are now GREEN. The markets have now gone from....totally geek to totally chic.......BOOM.

Can you tell that I have now moved into the land of......"I dont care".....regarding this ridiculous year end market? The life.....and mind-set...... of a long term investor.

 

Part of the reason for the short term action today.

Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/20/pce-inflation-november-2024-.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of just 0.1% from October and a 2.4% annual rate, both below expectations.
• Excluding food and energy, core PCE also increased 0.1% monthly and was 2.8% higher from a year ago, with both readings being 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.
• Personal income rose 0.3%, short of the 0.4% estimate. Personal expenditures increased 0.4%, one-tenth of a percentage point below the forecast.

Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected

Prices barely moved in November but still held higher than the Federal Reserve’s target when looked at from a year ago, according to a Commerce Department measure released Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of just 0.1% from October. The measure indicated a 2.4% inflation rate on an annual basis, still ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal, but lower than the 2.5% estimate from Dow Jones. The monthly reading also was 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.

Excluding food and energy, core PCE also increased 0.1% monthly and was 2.8% higher from a year ago, with both readings also being 0.1 percentage point below the forecast. Fed officials generally consider the core reading to be a better gauge of long-run inflation trends as it excludes the volatile gas and groceries category.

The annual core inflation reading was the same as in October while the headline rate rose 0.1 percentage point.

The readings reflected little increase in goods prices and a 0.2% rise in services prices. Food and energy prices both posted 0.2% gains as well. On a 12-month basis, goods prices have fallen 0.4%, but services have risen 3.8%. Food prices were up 1.4% while energy fell 4%.

Housing inflation, one of the stickier components of inflation during his economic cycle, showed signs of cooling in November, rising just 0.2%.

Income and spending numbers in the release also were a bit light compared with expectations.

Personal income rose 0.3% after having jumped 0.7% in October, falling short of the 0.4% estimate. On spending, personal expenditures increased 0.4%, one-tenth of a percentage point below the forecast.

The personal saving rate edged lower to 4.4%.

Stock market futures held in negative territory after the report while Treasury yields also slumped.

“Sticky inflation appeared to be a little less stuck this morning,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade Morgan Stanley. “The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in lower than expected, which may take some of the sting out of the market’s disappointment with the Fed’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday.”

The report comes just two days after the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate another quarter percentage point to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, the lowest in two years. However, Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues reduced their expected path in 2025, now penciling in just two reductions compared with four indicated in September.

Though Powell said Wednesday that inflation has “moved much closer” to the Fed’s goal, he said the changes in the projected path for rate cuts reflects “the expectation inflation will be higher” in the year ahead.

“It’s kind of common sense thinking that when the path is uncertain you go a little bit slower,” Powell said. “It’s not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down.”"

MY COMMENT

YES.....as usual more good news for the economy. This paints a CONTRARY picture to what the FED just said and the media take on the FED.

I find it really AMUSING that the writer of this little article just can not bring themselves to say this is.....GOOD NEWS. The article is mostly written with a slight negative slant that......"well the data is all good....inflation is down....the economy is strong"....but....."we are still not at the FED target"...."STILL higher than what the FED wants"....blah, blah, blah.

Just silly.....the above is EXTREMELY positive.

 

"During the last partial government shutdown, Defense Department funds were protected but Department of Homeland Security appropriations were not."

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...utdown-could-hurt-military-families-veterans/

It is also...EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that they would not be paid back for any missed pay.

The bottom line....having grown up in a career military family.....my wife also did.....the military is the one part of the government that should be respected.

BUT.....if they are not paid....or they lose money.....it is GOVERNMENTS fault.....for holding them hostage to pass a.....BLOATED....CHRISTMAS TREE....inflation boosting, spending bill. It is all GAMES.....GAMES.

BUT....I respect any contrary view.

 

I hate to say it and be argumentative....but...I call BS on the above.

In the past shut-downs.......including in.....2013....2018....2019...MILITARY pay was NOT impacted. See the chart in this article.

https://themilitarywallet.com/militay-members-get-paid-during-government-shutdown/

My "opinion".....the odds that any military member including officers will not get back pay...if pay is lost.... is....ZERO.

 

I guess we will just have to wait and see....if our GOVERNMENT (Joe Biden?)......respects the military.

 

Feel welcome to debate the above and continue the discussion......(of course no one needs "my" permission to do so).......even though I am moving back to the markets now. (I just dont want to get drawn into too much politics.)