The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    This bill is being voted on by Congress and proposed by Republicans. Joe Biden has no control over the spending bill.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    How about NVDA at the moment.....Up by 2.45%.

    ONWARD AND UPWARD.....TO INFINITY AND BEYOND.
     
  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    This we agree on, go NVDA!
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have EVERY stock in the green right now......with a BIG gain overall....well over 2%. The markets are actually.....for a brief time....... living in the world of REALITY.....where stocks actually represent private businesses.....that function to make money....to grow and sustain the business......and for their owners....the shareholders.

    I will take a SANTA RALLY....even if it is only for one day.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like the markets finally got some....GUTS.....and are saying....enough of this BULL SH%T. At least for a few hours.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    PLTR making a legitimate move toward $80 a share. It is up by +5.47% today at about $78.27. This stock is a MOMENTUM ROCKET right now.....not sure I would jump on it now....but for us that own it already....GREAT.

    One month.......+26%
    Six months.......+206%

    BUT.....five days.....+4.29%......the impact of the down market this week.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I will say.....and it is past due....THANK YOU T0rm3nted....for ALL you do as our Moderator. A thankless job That many do poorly. You have a light touch and do an exceptional job for us all.

    Good wishes for the coming year and much success in your life outside these boards.
     
    Smokie, roadtonowhere08 and T0rm3nted like this.
  8. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    You too, you are by far the most valuable member of this community and our best content creator consistently. Glad you still call this place home and have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
     
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  9. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Amen to both!
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I beat the SP500 today by 0.81%. I also had a BIG GAIN today. I still probably was down for the week....but it was nice to make some money. My two red stocks today were....COST and MSFT.

    I will get a chance later tonight to put up the weekly results.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Good riddance to this week....BAH HUMBUG.

    DOW year to date +13.59%
    DOW five days (-2.25%)

    SP500 year to date +25.05%
    SP500 five days (-2.19%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +28.83%
    NASDAQ 100 five days (-2.71%)

    NASDAQ year to date +32.55%
    NASDAQ five days (-2.22%)

    RUSSELL year to date +11.41%
    RUSSELL five days (-4.37%)

    For me I ended the week with my entire portfolio at....+67.60%....year to date. Last week I was at a year to date return of......69.25%......for my entire portfolio. A losing week for me.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.....SIX MARKET DAYS LEFT IN 2024.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I was talking earlier above about PLTR today making a run toward $80 per share......well...it got there.

    At the close PLTR was at $80.55 per share. It had a gain of 8.47% today or $6.34. The stock is on fire lately.

    It will be interesting to see how long this little BOOM can run.

    I see that as of the close on Friday....PLTR...had a market cap of $183.41BILLION. This makes it approximately the 75th largest company by market cap in the world.

    As a shareholder.....RIDING THE WAVE.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes....I know it as at an all time high and it might drop back some in the near future....but....I will be adding 106 shares of PLTR at the open on Monday.

    This will make the size of my position semi-respectable......but...still significantly below any of my other holdings except for CMG.....another training wheels stock. I do have PLTR at a full size position in all the other accounts that I manage.

    By the way the stock....PLTR....joins the NASDAQ 100 on Monday.........December 23....before the markets open.

    Palantir is up well more than 300% in 2024, it is the S&P 500's top performer by far. YES.....I know that this makes it seem likely that the stock is due for a correction. BUT....I am now looking at this stock as a....very probable.... LONG TERM holding....so I am willing to take that potential hit. I really like their management and how they approach and view business. They have a lot of room to grow their AI business......if they dont screw it up.

    Even with this new investment my position in this stock is still....TINY....in the context of my entire portfolio.....so I dont see this addition of shares as much of a gamble or a risk.....whatever happens.
     
    #22534 WXYZ, Dec 20, 2024 at 11:44 PM
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2024 at 11:58 PM
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A little real property update in my little area of 4200 homes.

    We currently have 31 homes for sale out of 4200. Prices are firm. The lowest priced home is $550,000....a very good deal considering the neighborhood and schools. The highest price is $12,750,000. Of the 31 homes for sale 21 are over $1Million.

    In my specific little neighborhood....we are way past the days of homes under $1Million......... the lowest priced house I have seen this year was....$1.1Million.

    As I said we are hanging in there on price in our area....although I dont see a lot of appreciation right now. I am sure many of the buyers are CASH buyers.

    If we could ever get mortgage rates below 6%...we will see a HUGE BOOM.
     
  16. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    We endured last week, although it was much about nothing. A tiny little blip and you’d have thought we were in a bear market with all the whining and drama.

    Maybe, just maybe we will close out on a strong run here at the end.
     
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  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SANTA...SANTA....SANTA...SANTA.....WE WANT SANTA........WITH A BIG BAG FULL OF MONEY FOR INVESTORS.

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND.......INVESTORS AFTER LAST WEEK. (apologies to "The Exorcist")

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For owners of NVDA.....January 6 might be a good day.....and impact the next few weeks.

    CEO Huang will be the KEYNOTE speaker at the Consumer Electronics Show. The question is will he.....update us on the current standing of orders, Blackwell, and other topics? Will there be some big hints on how things are going in the AI world? Will we get more info on RUBIN.....the successor to Blackwell?

     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SORRY....if you do not own NVDA. As a shareholder I have to do this post for.....myself. I am not pushing for anyone else to buy this stock....it is already way over-owned and over-analyzed. FOR ME......I use this sort of post to focus my thinking and drive out the doubts. EYE ON THE BALL...IGNORE THE NOISE.......EXTREME FOCUS.

    Nvidia stock has another 23% upside and the success of Blackwell will be the chipmaker's big story of 2025, Morgan Stanley says

    https://markets.businessinsider.com...ion-nvda-blackwell-demand-gpu-ai-2025-2024-12

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    • "Nvidia's Blackwell chip will steal the show in 2025, putting lingering concerns to bed, Morgan Stanley said.
    • Strategists said other noise would fade by mid-2025, and the stock is poised for another 20% gain.
    • The bank named Nvidia as its "top pick" going into next year.
    Nvidia's Blackwell chip will be the company's biggest story in 2025 — and the success of the next-gen GPU will overshadow any lingering concerns investors may still have, Morgan Stanley said.

    In a note this week, the bank reiterated its "overweight" rating on Nvidia stock and said the chipmaker remained its "top pick" going into next year. The bank's bullishness is being fueled by the expected success of Blackwell — Nivida's next-gen artificial intelligence-enabling chip.

    The bank issued a price target of $166 a share, implying a 23% increase from where the stock was trading on Friday around $134.82

    "We have tended to be most enthusiastic on NVIDIA when the near-term data points appear mixed, but underlying dynamics are very strong. We think we are approaching that point now," the analysts wrote in a note. "There are transitional pressures — but by 2h25 the only topic will be the strength of blackwell, in our view."

    Investors are already feeling bullish about the Blackwell chips, which are expected to launch in early 2025. Nvidia shares rallied earlier this year after CEO Jensen Huang said demand for the chip was "insane," boosting Wall Street's expectations for continued earnings growth.

    The chip will likely be the "driving force behind revenue" in the second half of next year, which could mean "significant upside for the stock," Morgan Stanley added.

    The success of its new chip could also dispel a handful of near- to medium-term anxieties investors have about the stock.

    "We think there are a number of concerns here, some of which are overstated, some of which are anxiety-inducing short term but we believe irrelevant longer term," the bank said, highlighting four issues investors have been worried about in particular.

    1. Slowing production for Hopper

    Investors are concerned about slowing builds for Hopper, Nvidia's current generation of AI chips. On its latest earnings call, the company forecast just 69.5% revenue growth for the fourth quarter, its slowest revenue forecast in seven quarters.

    But the slowdown in Hopper builds is a "non-issue," Morgan Stanley said.

    "The reason, of course, is that we are a few quarters until Hopper end of life. We would not correlate Hopper builds with Hopper revenue, which will persist for 3 more quarters or so, but there is a strong backlog of builds already coming through, so it's time to slow starts," analysts wrote.

    2. Blackwell variants not shipping at the same time

    Investors may also be concerned that not all of its Blackwell products will ship at the same time. Nvidia said would release seven variants of its Blackwell GPU.

    "We are hearing anxiety about some of the types that aren't ready, and we aren't discounting that there may be some timing challenges with some of the product types," analysts said.

    They continued: "All fair, but all of the Blackwells should get sold, even if this drives allocation from one customer to another, and we think that this persists all year.
    This is not a concern that should linger."

    Concerns about Blackwell's rollout should "completely disappear" by the second half of next year, the bank said.

    3. Competitors eating into Nvidia's value

    Analysts noted that Nvidia has seen some of its value being "directly" transferred into other chipmakers in recent months. The bank pointed to companies like Broadcom and Marvel, two firms that produce ASICs, which are custom AI chips that serve as an alternative to Nvidia's GPUs.

    "But in 2025, we believe that the biggest users of ASICs will actually see purchasing shift back towards GPUs, based on conversations with those customers," Morgan Stanley said. "While our forecasts for both AVGO/MRVL ASIC revenue are largely conservative, as are our forecasts for GPU, we believe that GPU will meaningfully outperform ASIC this year."

    4. Less demand for chips

    The big AI chip customers are seeing benefits to scaling GPU cluster sizes, which allows for more advanced computing. But some financial backers in the space are raising questions about whether the returns of doing so are worth it, the bank said.

    "Both constituencies matter, we can't rule out a consolidation in that portion of the market," analysts said. "But we note that many of the innovations that Nvidia has delivered in recent years are aimed at enhancing the efficiency of large clusters," they added, pointing to developments like Nvidia's acquisition of Mellanox, another chipmaker that will help it expand into the market for data center supplies.

    "Even with any concerns about the AGI arms race cooling down the road, the growth in inference, the growth in sovereign training, the growth in enterprise training applications, and are all multi-year growth drivers, and make up 70% or so of data center revenue, so even with some consolidation in the arms race we should still see enduring growth potential," the analysts added.

    Even after a 170% rally in 2024, forecasters are still generally bullish on Nvidia going into next year. The continued excitement around the AI trade in the stock market is among the top themes investors see shaping the stock market in 2025.

    MY COMMENT

    Obviously there is risk with this stock......as with any tech company. BUT...we are not talking about some young or start-up company. We are talking about one ot the top three largest, most successful, companies in the world. Management is STABLE and STRONG. And we are in the early months of the....AI REVOLUTION.

    BUT......just because there is a lot of positive noise in favor of this company and stock....it is not for everyone. SO......dont jump on this bandwagon unless you are willing to take the risk and drama that comes with this company and the media. If "I" was not sure "I" had the mentality to handle this stock as an individual holding.....as usual....I will mention another way to get SIGNIFICANT exposure to this stock is by owning the SP500 Index.

    AND.....PLEASE.....THE PURPOSE OF THIS THREAD IS.....NOT.....TO GIVE INVESTMENT ADVICE. IT IS TO FOCUS AND SERVE AS A RECORD OF....."MY"......INVESTMENT JOURNEY AND THINKING.....FOR "ME". NOTHING....on here is a recommendation to purchase any of the stocks or funds that are discussed on here or that "I" own. IT IS ALL ABOUT......ME, ME, ME. How "YOU" invest has to be all about.....YOU, YOU, YOU.
     

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