I had a SMALL loss today. One stock up....AAPL. I also got beat by the SP500 today by....0.20%. A meaningless day.....and...obviously a very lightly traded day. WE NEED TO DO BETTER TOMORROW.
Stock market today: Dow ekes out gains, bitcoin slumps as 'Santa Claus' rally takes a pause https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif
Glad I have no time to waste on the markets today....they are trashing stocks....especially mine. ALL in the red. Dow falls 400 points, Big Tech stocks drag Nasdaq down 2%: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/26/stock-market-today-live-update.html BUT: "The three major U.S. indexes are still in the green week to date. The S&P 500 is up 1.1% this week after posting its best Christmas Eve performance since 1974 on Tuesday, according to Bespoke. The Dow has gained 0.7% this week, and a run-up in megacap tech stocks has pushed the Nasdaq Composite 1.4% higher. Although trading has been muted this week, investors hope stocks will surge into the new year, spurred by the so-called “Santa Claus rally.” This refers to the market’s tendency to rise in the final five trading days of the year and the first two in January. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned 1.3% on average during this period, outpacing the market’s average seven-day return of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial. " MY COMMENT Dont think we are going to see a traditional SANTA RALLY this year......but who cares. We are looking good for 2025. BUT....I still say it will be one extreme or the other.....UP nicely....or.....down. Nothing in-between.
A nice big fat loss for me today. Glad I did not waste a single minute on the markets today. Every stock was down. AND a loss to the SP500 today by....0.65%. A thinly traded day that just took off to the negative and held there all day. WHATEVER. We are down to the.....FINAL TWO....days of 2024 for the markets.
Now for the week. DOW year to date +13.99% DOW five days +1.65% SP500 year to date +25.89% SP500 five days +2.21% NASDAQ 100 year to date +29.78% NASDAQ 100 five days +2.38% NASDAQ year to date +33.56% NASDAQ five days +2.77% RUSSELL year to date +11.52% RUSSELL five days +1.95% As for me I am right now year to date for my entire portfolio.....+68.49%. Last Friday I was at year to date for my entire portfolio......+67.60%. So I made some money this week.....YEA.
It seemed like a losing week this week....but in the end....I made some money. As noted below...."the weekly gains held". Dow, S&P, Nasdaq slide on Big Tech losses, but weekly gains hold https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif "After stacking impressive gains this year, some of the biggest names in tech lost ground as investors took profits, rebalance portfolios, or reassessed their lofty valuations. Tesla (TSLA) lost 5%. Nvidia (NVDA) gave up 2%, while Amazon (AMZN) decreased by 1%. Wall Street has just three trading days remaining in a 2024 full of big gains, but markets have been unable to mount a "Santa Claus" rally into the end of the year. Despite the negative day, the S&P 500 logged a weekly gain of 1.8%. The Nasdaq also posted a win of 1.8%, while the Dow notched a 1.5% increase." MY COMMENT I think we are seeing a lot of year end profit taking. It looks to me like many investors are re-balancing portfolios to lock in those profits. As for me.....as usual...I will NOT be taking profits or re-balancing. I usually dont. I like to let winners run.
Two days to go in 2024. It has been an EPIC year for investors. A very RARE year. So.....CELEBRATE, CELEBRATE......DANCE TO THE MUSIC. Investors should celebrate their big 2024 gains https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inve...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif MY COMMENT I dont care about next week or the final two days of 2024. I am going to lock in gains of +60% to +70% in two market days. AMAZING. It is extremely RARE to have a year like this for any investor. A lifetime event. AND.....many people on here are going to do the same or better. WELL DONE.....to all of us.
The final two and an EPIC end......and.....a new beginning.....all in one week. Stock market enters final stretch of 2024 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The market is entering the final two trading days of 2024, and stocks are set to post another strong year of gains. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) once again led the charge in 2024, rising more than 30% thus far while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has risen over 25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is up a more modest 14%. A holiday-shortened trading week with limited news on the docket is expected to greet investors in the final trading week of the year. Markets will be closed for New Year's Day on Wednesday, and no major companies are slated to report quarterly results. In economic data, updates on housing prices and sales, as well as a a look at activity in the manufacturing sector, are expected to highlight a subdued week of releases. Where's Santa? Markets are three days into the highly anticipated "Santa Claus" rally, which is statistically one of the most consistent seven-day positive stretches of the year for the S&P 500. But stocks have not been in the holiday spirit. All three major averages sold off Friday, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 1.5%. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 1.3% during the seven trading days beginning Dec. 24, well above the typical seven-day average of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist. History has shown that if Santa does come and the S&P 500 posts a positive return during the time period, then January is typically a positive month for the benchmark index and the rest of the year averages a 10.4% return. When the S&P 500 is negative during that time frame, January usually doesn't end in the green, and the return for the upcoming full year averages just 5%, per Turnquist. Three days into this year's Santa Claus period, which will close on Friday, Jan. 3, the S&P 500 is down less than 0.1% While history may be flashing a warning sign, it's notable that last year the Santa Claus rally didn't materialize. January started poorly too. Still, the S&P 500 is still set to end the year up more than 20%. Rising rates As markets have digested the Federal Reserve's recent message that interest rates may remain higher for longer than investors had hoped, bond yields have been soaring. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is up more than 40 basis points in December alone. Hovering right above 4.6%, the 10-year is at its highest level in about seven months and in the territory where equity strategists believe higher rates could begin to weigh on stock performance. "I think 4.5% or higher on the 10-year gets problematic for the markets more broadly," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz said in a recent video sent to clients. Kantrowitz further clarified in an interview with Yahoo Finance's Market Domination that any incoming economic data that sends rates lower could be a welcome sign for stocks. "In the last couple of years, really markets have only gone down because of rising interest rate or inflation fears," Kantrowitz said on Dec. 18. "And I think that's the new normal that going forward. Market corrections are going to come from higher rates, not slower growth or higher unemployment." All about fundamentals Despite the recent drawdown in markets since the Fed meeting on Dec. 18, the setup heading into 2025 "has really not changed," Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients on Friday. Stock valuations remain high. Earnings are expected to grow about 15% year over year for the S&P 500, per FactSet data, creating a "high bar" to impress investors. US economic growth is largely expected to remain resilient. "In aggregate, investors appear bulled up on US equities," Chronert wrote. This has pushed market sentiment, as measured by Citi's Levkovich Index, increasingly higher. The Levkovich Index, which takes into account investors' short positions and leverage, among other factors, to determine market sentiment, currently sits at a reading of 0.62, above the euphoria line of 0.38, where the likelihood of positive forward returns is typically lower as the market appears stretched. For now, this isn't shaking Chronert's overall confidence in the US equity market. He noted that the "fundamentals" that have driven the market rally remain intact. But strategists argue that stretched sentiment and valuations do put the market rally on thinner ice should a catalyst that challenges the bull thesis for 2025 emerge. "Overall, this setup, plus the lack of real correction in some time, does leave the market more susceptible to increasing bouts of volatility," Chronert wrote. "If the fundamental story holds, we would be buyers of first half pullbacks in the S&P 500." MY COMMENT I expect that 2025 will continue to be very volatile and erratic. BUT.....we are in the middle of a nice BULL MARKET. I would not be surprised to see a negative January. It is just a weirdly skittish market in the face of at least ten quarters of GREAT fundamental earnings data. As to the SANTA RALLY......I like to have fun with it at year end....but....I really dont care much for superstition based market indicators. So....if it happens...good...if it does not happen...good. My primary indicator for where we are headed will be the forth quarter earnings that will happen soon. ALL the big banks will kick off earnings starting about the middle of January. HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone on here and your family.
For you old timers, where do you see BTC and the related ETFs going long term. I sure wish I got in 10 years ago or even 3-4 years ago, but I just can’t for the life of me understand its value, it creates NOTHING. Seems all speculative to me. Would like to hear from you older guys.
So much for the....Experts, Professionals, etc,......wrong again. S&P 500’s 2024 Rally Shocked Forecasters Expecting It to Fizzle https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-50...sANImuuk0Aj66YME-qRy0485ApUvZI6kSskJZ2QeVAUif
OK......the ANTI-SANTA dip continues. I have not read or looked at anything today.....but it is obvious what is happening. It is a big year end profit taking and re-balancing event. The gains have been so MASSIVE this year that many people....especially the professionals....are taking year end profit. They will use that money to re-balance. I am sure there is also a small component of panic selling....but not much. Any such selling is good since it represents capitulation and is healthy to shake out people that should not be in the markets anyway. I am watching Varney....and what I am seeing looks very orderly and intentional. It also looks very broad....across all the markets. So I have NO issue or concern with what is happening. Simply a natural and normal year end event. I doubt that many retail investors.....the GUTS of the markets....are selling these last two days of the market year.
I believe that this selling event has nothing to do with the BULL MARKET which is still fully intact. The positive market bias is still strong and will continue for another year or two.....in my simple view. This is a NON-FUNDAMENTAL....sell off event.
I very RARELY re-balance.....but....I am considering selling a SMALL amount of my NVDA.....profit taking..... so I can get my PLTR position up to more toward normal in my primary account. I already have PLTR up to a normal position in all the other accounts that I manage. BUT....for me....there is no way I will do this in 2024. I dont want the capital gains tax. I will wait till after the new year and make this trade later this week if I decide to do it. I am learning that direction right now......but still thinking about it. My main concern about doing this is I dont want to chase returns in PLTR.....and end up taking a hit with my NVDA. I think PLTR is the REAL DEAL....but I have not had the stock for the long term so....who knows. If I end up doing the trade...I will add perhaps 400-600 shares of PLTR. That will get me up into the 800-1000 share range. STILL not anywhere near a full position....but....at least it will be progress. So......we will see....later this week.
I am sure we will see some carry over of this soft market into at least the first week or two of 2025. There will be a good number of sales and profit taking after the first of the year....by investors that want to take some profit....but....want to push capital gains taxes out a year. I am hopeful that earnings starting in mid January will be a fire wall that will STOP this market weakness and put the BULL MARKET back into control of the markets.
YES.....we have a lot to be thankful for: A Time To Be Thankful https://www.allstarcharts.com/all-star-charts-premium/2024-12-27/time-be-thankful (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "During this time of the year, I find myself thinking back on the prior 12 months. It's hard not to right? I wanted to send a short note today reminding everyone to look around. Understand what is happening out there and why it's been happening. This year more than ever, we are grateful for the permabears, who are so darn good at convincing all those gullible sheep to fight a perfectly good bull market, that it's helped the rest of us make so much more money. The S&P500 is up 28% this year. The Nasdaq100 is up 30%. This is after the 2023 returns of 26% for the S&P500 and 54% for the Nasdaq100. They cried and cried about a recession. But all we got was the Nasdaq literally doubling in total value. These are historic returns that have rarely ever been seen in American history. But I have to say, if it wasn't for these angry permabears promising you a crisis every day the past 2+ years, our returns would not have been as good. If Wall Street sell side analysts weren't so bad at their jobs, these gains would likely not be anywhere near what they've been. If economists didn't put on blindfolds when walking into their offices, like some sort of creepy fetish, the stock market returns would likely be much different than what we just witnessed. Think about these clowns promising you the next Black Monday with their very creative macro conspiracy theories... If these fools weren't so good at convincing even greater fools to listen to them, then we wouldn't all have as much money as we have today. And to be clear, this is not a knock on anyone. I'm not trying to disparage anyone's life or lifestyle choices. I'm just telling it like it is. The reason I want to point out their demented behavior, in addition to showing my gratitude, is so we can identify this type of opportunity in the future. It will come again. Maybe not as great as the past 2 years have been. But we will certainly have opportunities to squeeze the crap out of the criminally insane once again in the future. As traders and/or investors, if we're not profiting from these setups, then we're not doing our job. It's our responsibility to our LPs, or Households, or Family Office, or our own portfolios to profit from the spectacularly irrational behavior we see from the weakest minded humans. Keep in mind, in a lot of cases, the actions of these legendary charlatans are being driven by conflicting interests. Wall Street sell side analysts, for example, are mostly just trying to keep their jobs, so they can afford to keep paying for their wife's plastic surgery, and little Timmy's private school and the rest of the lifestyle that your tax dollars have helped subsidize over the years. The economists are just too blinded by lagging indicators to be able to see what the world is actually doing. They ignore reality to focus their attention on theory. Think about it. It's impossible to see what is right in front of you when your head is so far up your ass. That's just science. And then of course you have the social media degenerates. These poor souls are just looking for some attention. Maybe their mothers did not give them the love they needed, or perhaps they were picked on as a child, or cut from the high school basketball team. But they are depressed beyond repair, and they express their sadness daily on social media. They're unhappy and lonely and want you to be too, no matter how dumb they look along the way. Again, their priorities are just different than ours. Now, it isn't just one of these types of challenged individuals that causes the squeeze. It's the collection of all of them that has created one of the greatest opportunities to profit in the history of financial markets. The guy promising a crisis every day because of the fed, or the yen, or the bitcoin or whatever made up fairytale they're spewing these days, is not the only fuel driving all of our gains. But they certainly help. Think of it like compounding interest. A little bit every day from all of the different types of charlatans, is what added up to these epic returns for the rest of us. And we shouldn't forget about it either, or take it for granted. That's why I'm reminding everyone today, including myself. We will look back to this moment in the future. You'll see the handful of economists who still have jobs embarrassingly optimistic about the future of the economy. You'll notice the sell side analysts on Wall Street all with unusually high upside targets for stocks. And of course, the crisis guy who's been wrong about everything for years, will capitulate tell you that stocks will now rally. They'll use something like "melt-up" in their description, which is a classic permabear strategy to justify their lack of understanding about how markets work. We see it every cycle. There are new versions of these charlatans every time. The names and faces change, but the details are almost exactly the same every single cycle. When that moment comes, we will look back at how grateful we are today for their creativity and persuasiveness throughout this bull market. If it wasn't for you idiots, we wouldn't all be as wealthy as we are. So we are incredibly grateful. And we will not forget it. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all of you. Go hug a permabear. Tell them JC thanks them for their service." MY COMMENT Yes.....I am very thankful for them all. BUT....they are a constant distraction and thorn in the side of investors and the markets. As long term investors our job is to......IGNORE IT ALL.
Mostly what you would think.....but a good reminder in this little article for those that are near or at retirement. Hit the Ground Running in 2025 A financial to-do list for the New Year! https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/hit-the-ground-running-in-2025
Strongly impacting the profit taking markets today....is the fact that many investors are off on vacation. So it is a very thin market and this exacerbates the impact of the selling. We will be back to full force in the markets in about a week......as people return from vacation.
I just heard that we will have a short market week next week. The markets will be closed on January 9 in honor of and in mourning for Jimmy Carter. He was an honorable man and President......but one of the TWO WORST Presidents in my lifetime. (I bet you can guess who the other one was.) I dont actually think this....but....perhaps the markets today are honoring Jimmy Carter by giving us a market day like those that we had to ENDURE during his one DISMAL term. I do give him credit for opening my eyes.......economically.....to the magic of tax cuts, reduced regulation, reduced government, etc, etc, etc. I did vote for him......once.
