A day to forget....and....simply move on. At least I was perfect today....EVERY.....stock in the red. Not a single exception. I also got soundly trounced by the SP500 today by.....2.47%. Moving on to a new day tomorrow.
A RED market so far today. No doubt this is the reason. 10-year Treasury note yield hits highest level since April ahead of Fed minutes https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/08/10-year-treasury-yield-jobs-data-fed-minutes.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near an 8-month high as investors digest this week’s strong economic data, which reinforced expectations that the Fed will act with caution in its rate cut path this year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury climbed more than two basis points to 4.71%, reaching its highest level since late April, when it crossed the 4.739%. The 2-year Treasury yield was about one basis point higher at 4.281%. The 30-year Treasury yield, which was three basis points higher at 4.943, hit its highest level since Nov. 2023. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%. Data released Wednesday from payment processing firm ADP showed private sector job creation was lower than expected in December, while wages grew at the slowest pace since July 2021. Investors are now looking to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Minutes from the central bank’s latest meeting, at which it cut its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point and surprised with the hawkishness of its closely watched “dot plot,” are due at 2 p.m. ET. Bond yields rose in the previous session, spurred by an increase in the December ISM services price index that reflected a higher-than-expected number of job openings." MY COMMENT It is always something in the short term. Most of this stuff really has nothing to do with stocks and funds. It is ALL short term trader fodder and long term noise.....the FED, interest rates, economic data, etc, etc, etc. Just a long term investor....irritant. BUT....we are stuck with it and to get to the long term have to live through all the day to day BS.
Here is the economic data mentioned above..... US private payrolls growth slows in December https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-p...V3n1uik9ZGlc9VZLyrljO0oDfvI9ELPZ&guccounter=2 "U.S. private payrolls growth slowed sharply in December, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday." MY COMMENT As usual....this stuff is worthless, distorted, and always contradictory. It is a joke how the daily markets, bond markets, and others obsess over this "stuff". AND.....NO....inflation is not out of control or high. It is actually at the lower end of the normal range....that "normal range" being.......3-4% for a healthy economy. BUT....no one cares to actually look at the historic data. They are all too busy fear-mongering whatever is the....short term..... topic of the day.
LOL....so much for all the "Quantum Computer" cheer-leading and celebration we saw in the media just a few days ago. Apparently everyone got a little carried away. Quantum stocks like Rigetti plunge after Nvidia’s Huang says the computers are 15 to 30 years away https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/08/qua...ys-the-computers-are-15-to-30-years-away.html
The markets today are just floating around getting caught up in little whirlpools. Lots of impact from recent options trades, speculation, Hedge Fund selling, the usual FED fears, and program trading. I dont really see anything happening today that has any real impact on big cap or other successful companies that is fundamental based. It is a conglomeration of "stuff"...being pushed in the media today.....which is having a cumulative impact to push the big averages into the red. That means that the retail investors......us little people.....are sitting and doing nothing as we watch the short term.... CIRCUS.
In spite of all the noise today I do at least have three stocks that have managed to sit in the green so far....MSFT, AAPL, and NVDA. I dont see much happening today....and am finding nothing of any substance to put up on here....so I will BAIL for now.
I was thinking about NVDA last night. Do they have the worst luck in the world? Every time they announce great earnings or some other action happens that SHOULD boost the stock.....BOOM....like clockwork......something else dominates the news or happens that kills any advance in the stock. It is simply.....UNCANNY. Why Nvidia rug pull doesn't faze US stock market bulls: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...f-8jlcqOmp62GxLKMaFT2rEshtmpjFuQTBOCiLZsmL3Lp (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia just made history. Again. On Monday, Nvidia stock closed at a record high, its first since November. Investors piled in ahead of CEO Jensen Huang’s highly anticipated CES keynote — perhaps anticipating the big reveals needed to stoke artificial intelligence hype. Speaking to a packed audience of over 6,000 in Las Vegas, Huang laid down a bold vision for what he called the "era of physical AI." “The ChatGPT moment for general robotics is just around the corner,” Huang declared, signaling that AI’s potential is only beginning to materialize in physical systems such as its Cosmos platform. He also spotlighted Nvidia's partnership with major automakers like Toyota and Volvo, leveraging its DRIVE Hyperion platform to power next-gen autonomous vehicles. According to Huang, “Building autonomous vehicles, like all robots, requires three computers: one to train, one to simulate, and one in the car. And Nvidia powers them all.” Futuristic, trillion-dollar visions of Nvidia-powered humanoid robots and self-driving cars dominated investor minds into the early morning, sending the stock to fresh record highs. But when Wall Street opened for business with the opening bell on Tuesday, a "sell the news" fever gripped Nvidia investors, culminating in a $220 billiondrop in market capitalization — its worst in four months. It's a familiar story for Nvidia investors: a record high followed by a rug pull. Investors got a taste of this most recently after Nvidia's Nov. 20 earnings release. The stock rocketed north of $150 for the first time, only to be met with investor selling, leading to a 13% fall. It's also reminiscent of the June 20, 2024, pop to $140, which was met by a 27% sell-off that caused Nvidia to cede the world's largest stock title to Microsoft. A similar story evolved around the disappointing February 2024 monthly jobs report released March 8, which sent stocks reeling. Nvidia opened at a record before posting its worst return in 10 months, leading to an eventual 20% pullback. It's also an echo of the Aug. 23, 2023, earnings announcement that rocketed it to $50 for the first time (on a split-adjusted basis), only to see it frustrate bulls and trade sideways for four months. The bottom line is: Nvidia might be the undisputed leader of this bull market, and it has frequently frustrated bulls. But it hasn't yet upset the general bull market in US stocks. Paul Meeks, Harvest Portfolio Management chief investment officer, joined Yahoo Finance's Morning Brief show Tuesday following Huang's speech. Though he's a longtime Nvidia holder and bull, Meeks speculated it would take an eventual slowdown in Nvidia's growth rate quarter to quarter to turn him into a seller. "If you wait for the year-to-year growth slowdown, you're going to [be selling] late. So I'll be looking for that sequential drop in the growth rate," he said. Asked if Nvidia could become a $4 trillion company this year, Meeks said, "I don't think I'm bold enough to say that's definitely going to happen," adding, "But I think over the next couple of years [it's] inevitable." For a bull, that 6% drop is merely a fly on the windshield." MY COMMENT It is simply amazing how often this happens to this company and their stock. Announce good news and....BOOM....on the same day something happens or comes out of nowhere and the stock suffers. The event that hammers the good news from the stock is just about NEVER actually connected to the business of NVDA or their results. If I was a CONSPIRACY person I could make a pretty good case for....some sinister force....unleashing turmoil on this stock at critical positive times. Or....I could make a pretty good argument that this company is just......extremely unlucky. BUT....my clinical brain tells me that this is all just RANDOM CHANCE. BUT......LOL.....I still wonder at how this always seems to happen over the past year or two. Just a random observation.....that means nothing...... on a useless day in the markets.
In spite of the massive POSITIVE events that are happening right now......and....earnings that will probably be very positive again....I would not be surprised if the markets talk themselves into a little correction to start the year. If it happens....it will NOT concern me. The obvious market bias is still strongly positive. The BULL MARKET is strongly intact.
I am in the process of moving my little fraction of one bitcoin from COINBASE to my Schwab account. Coinbase is simply a total pain to deal with. You cant reach anyone by phone. Their site is extremely irritating to use. Anything you want to do seems to always have a delay. For example moving my small amount of bitcoin from the "vault" so I can sell it is going to take at least 48 hours to happen.....if it happens at all. SO.....I decided the other day to sell out my fraction of one Bitcoin....about $1500.....and move the funds to one of my Schwab brokerage accounts. Once there I will keep those funds in Bitcoin for the long term. I will purchase shares of the IBIT Bitcoin ETF.....BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. I am also doing this to consolidate everything into Schwab. This Coinbase account is the only account that I have outside Schwab. They dont do statements and it will be a nightmare for my heirs to get this money out when the time comes for them to have to deal with my finances. I am not even sure they would know this account exists. SO....I will keep my little bit of Bitcoin....but in Schwab and in a format that it is easy to buy or sell and appears on my monthly statement.
LOL....while I have been WHINING (not really) about the markets....they have now all turned green. In my account I now have seven of nine stocks in the green. The red ones are....PLTR and GOOGL. It is like we have gone through 2-3 market days...in just 2.5 hours today. Talk about COMPRESSION. Lets hope this turn to the green is reflecting the TRUE market direction for today....now that we are past all the hussy-fits and trading of the open today. ONWARD AND UPWARD.......FORWARD.
Ok......I am now back to ALL red....except for HD. What a crazy, skittish day. With the green and red action today....it is probably a very good day for the AI Trading Platforms. BUT a waste for anyone that is an "actual" investor. WHATEVER. ONWARD AND UPWARD.....ENDURE.
OK....I was just able to successfully sell my fraction of one Bitcoin on Coinbase. NOW.....I need to withdraw those funds and get them into my Schwab account. It will take a few days. If I am lucky the price of Bitcoin will continue to drop during that time. Current price per share for IBIT is $54.79.
A WILD AND CRAZY day today in the markets. In the end....totally meaningless to me today as I ended.....FLAT......no gain no loss. I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.16%. I guess I will try again tomorrow.
Not really relevant to investors....but this does show how ridiculous it is to give any credibility to Jobs and employment data. It is ALL totally....contradictory......and, therefore meaningless. US hiring announcements in 2024 lowest in nine years https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-h...f-8jlcqOmp62GxLKMaFT2rEshtmpjFuQTBOCiLZsmL3Lp (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hiring announcements by U.S. employers last year were the lowest since 2015, a report showed on Thursday, confirming a sharp moderation in job growth over that period. Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said companies announced 769,953 hiring plans, down 1.3% from 2023. Hiring announcements dropped to 7,999 in December from 11,621 in November. Sluggish hiring accounted for the slowdown in job gains last year, with the unemployment rate jumping from 3.7% at the start of the year to 4.3% in July and then stabilizing, hovering at 4.2% in November. "The slower hiring pace reflects ongoing uncertainty in economic conditions and cautious approaches by employers to expansion," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "Most employers are anticipating additional uncertainty with the upcoming administration, which is leading to slower hiring." Planned job cuts totaled 761,358 last year, the highest since 2020 when the labor market was roiled by the COVID-19 pandemic, up 5.5% from 2023. Outside the pandemic, announced layoffs were the highest since 2009. Despite the surge in announcements, Labor Department data like weekly jobless claims and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey have consistently shown low layoffs. Planned job reductions dropped 33% to 38,792 in December. The technology sector accounted for the bulk of announced job cuts last year, followed by healthcare, automotive, services and consumer products industries. Market or economic conditions, cost cutting, closing and restructuring were the top reasons for planned layoffs. MY COMMENT Of course we will not see any impact from this in the markets. This jobs, employment, and unemployment data is so distorted, confusing, corrupt and outright....FRAUDULENT.....as to be totally worthless. Unfortunately when combined with the FED speculation.... it constantly jerks the short term markets around. We will see another example of this....BS...on Friday......I cant wait. (Friday’s December payrolls report.)
Well I see that my TINY fraction of one Bitcoin......sale proceeds........ has hit my checking account today. I will be putting that money into.......IBIT Bitcoin ETF.....BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust......tomorrow. Years ago I purchased a little bit over a single Bitcoin.....just for fun. I purchased at about $2400. I than sold most of it at about $12,000. Now I wish I had just sat on it. I will sit on this little Bitcoin investment and simply let it ride. I have ABSOLUTELY ZERO plans to put anything else into Bitcoin. I dont consider it an investment.....or.....an investment vehicle. I also do not see it as a store of value. In my view it has no inherent value and is totally illusory. But....that is just me. I see that currently Bitcoin is at $92,335. Hopefully it will drop more over the next 24 hours. I will NOT buy my ETF shares tomorrow at the open. I will wait till later in the day to buy and try to capture the lowest price possible. A VERY RARE little bit of short term market timing for me.
Speaking of jobs... COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America. ABBOTT: Good Subject... Terrible Times... It's 7.8%. COSTELLO: That many people are out of work? ABBOTT: No, that's 14.7%. COSTELLO: You just said 7.8%. ABBOTT: 7.8% Unemployed. COSTELLO: Right 7.8% out of work. ABBOTT: No, that's 14.7%. COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 14.7% unemployed. ABBOTT: No, that's 7.8%. COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE ... Is it 7.8% or 14.7%? ABBOTT: 7.8% are unemployed ... 14.7% are out of work. COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed. ABBOTT: No, Congress said you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed. COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK !! ABBOTT: No, you miss his point. COSTELLO: What point? ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair. COSTELLO: To whom? ABBOTT: The unemployed. COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work. ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed. COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment? ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down ... Absolutely! COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work? ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how they get it to 7.8%. Otherwise it would be 14.7%. Our govt. doesn't want you to read about 14.7% unemployment. COSTELLO: That would be tough on those running for reelection. ABBOTT: Absolutely. COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number? ABBOTT: Two ways is correct. COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job? ABBOTT: Correct. COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job? ABBOTT: Bingo. COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work. ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an Economist. COSTELLO: I don't even know what the heck I just said! ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like Congress
The post above by Husker....it just sums it all up nicely. All of these reports and the adjustments, revisions, and analysis down to the microscopic level are just pointless many times. Do you remember the jobs report in October of 2024? How about the FOMC in June of 2024? Manufacturing? CPI? Oh, and the consumer surveys?
And to pile on....Can you imagine trying to manage your financial plan/portfolio based off of every report and narrative associated with the reports? In many ways, I think the financial environment is designed this way for a lot of the wrong reasons. IF, anyone was inclined to do so, you would simply be overwhelmed and eventually turn your money over to a "professional" to manage. There is no way an average investor could navigate this complex world of investing, but "they" will certainly be able to make adjustments and pick the right times to effectively give you all of the reward with no risk.
