What is comical and sad at the same time, is the articles today suggesting caution and some skepticism about the whole deal. Aren't they the same ones who only a day ago were plastering the story in different terms?? They ran with it like a fox out of the henhouse yesterday. So, what has changed? This is yet another example of why the financial media should always be regarded as self-serving their own interests.
If only our companies felt this way a bit more...and our policymakers. Even our big tech companies are too beholden to them in my opinion. The sad fact is.....we can be bought $$$....and they know it.
Just for context....five days ago on January 23, 2025....I bought 52 shares of PLTR in my kids account. Than we went through the MEDIA HURRICANE that hit the tech side of the markets yesterday. NOW....how are those shares doing....well....showing a short term GAIN of 3.66% as of this moment. WOW......it is as though yesterday never happened.
The top 10 YTD in the SP 500. This changes regularly in the short term, but is interesting to see who's in it and maybe who isn't at the moment. S&P 500 Component Year to Date Returns # Company Symbol YTD Return 1 CVS HEALTH CORP CVS 25.19% 2 CONSTELLATION ENERGY CEG 22.93% 3 WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE INC WBA 21.54% 4 BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC BLDR 21.40% 5 SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS STX 19.89% 6 3M CO MMM 17.38% 7 DAVITA INC DVA 17.37% 8 HUMANA INC HUM 17.36% 9 GENERAL ELECTRIC GE 16.59% 10 MEDTRONIC PLC MDT 15.75%
US Treasury Rates The US treasury yield curve rates are updated at the end of each trading day. All data is sourced from the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data provided by the Treasury.gov website. Treasury Current Yield Change Previous Yield 1 Month Treasury 4.45% 0.00 4.45% 2 Month Treasury 4.36% 0.00 4.36% 3 Month Treasury 4.35% -0.01 4.36% 4 Month Treasury 4.32% 0.00 4.32% 6 Month Treasury 4.25% -0.02 4.27% 1 Year Treasury 4.17% -0.01 4.18% 2 Year Treasury 4.27% -0.02 4.29% 3 Year Treasury 4.33% -0.02 4.35% 5 Year Treasury 4.43% -0.02 4.45% 7 Year Treasury 4.53% -0.02 4.55% 10 Year Treasury 4.63% -0.02 4.65% 20 Year Treasury 4.91% -0.01 4.92% 30 Year Treasury 4.85% -0.02 4.87% Treasury rates updated on 2025-01-24 with data sourced from Treasury.gov.
Current Mortgage Rates Today's mortgage rates for the most common types of home loans are displayed below. Mortgage interest rates fluctuate on a daily basis. Loan rates are impacted by interest rates on bonds, mortgage backed securities and actions taken by the Federal Reserve. Actual mortgage rates for a borrower are highly dependent on credit scores, any points paid and other lender fees. The rates below are an average of quotes offered by many lenders and are adjusted to incorporate lender fees and points. Mortgage Type Rate Change 30 Year Fixed Mortgage 7.07% -0.04 15 Year Fixed Mortgage 6.48% -0.03 30 Year Jumbo Mortgage 7.35% -0.02 7/6 SOFR ARM Mortgage 6.92% -0.02 30 Year FHA Mortgage 6.50% -0.04 30 Year VA Mortgage 6.51% -0.04 Rates last updated on 1/27/25.
Some earnings. Boeing Reports Fourth Quarter Results (BA) Lockheed Martin Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results (LMT) Royal Caribbean Q4 EPS Tops Expectations (RCL) GM releases full-year and fourth-quarter 2024 results and 2025 guidance (GM) PACCAR Achieves Strong Annual Revenues and Net Income (PCAR)
Today is way beyond a dead cat bounce. It was a nice ride today. I dont think the Deep story has any legs. It was a one hit wonder. Plus a drop with a dead cat bounce is usually.....more than a single day drop and bounce. There.....that should jinx us all. I went from being taken in the market time machine back to September yesterday....to now jumped into the future....only about two weeks ago...in terms of total account value. I had a great gain today....even with HD, CMG, and COST in the RED. I also beat the SP500 today by.....3.92%. NVDA made back nearly 9% today. PLTR made nearly 7%....and...closed over $80. That is market strength and the realization that all the AI Trading programs that caused the PANIC yesterday along with all the short term traders.....ARE NOT....in control of the markets beyond the very short term....in this case one day.
Lori cant see that as a wise move. I understund the impulse, the bold move but is not worth it compared with risk. Allways having a money pillow is a decent sleeping pill. Just my 2 cents anyway.
I can understand why Lori did this. As long as she realizes the risk she is ok....that is her choice. BUT....there is a risk with this sort of situation that you could be forced to sell stocks at a very bad time....like a major correction or bear market......if you need emergency money. And when it happens it is very painful.
I think we have just scratched the surface on this DeepSeek story. I think there is a lot that will come out to show that what was reported was not the whole story. I think we will see a lot more like the story below....assuming....that this DeeepSeek story does not just simply disappear in a day or two to never be seen again.....(probably a pretty good chance)...in my skeptical view. DeepSeek 'likely a head fake', buy the dip says Rosenblatt's Genovese https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deepseek-likely-head-fake-buy-131837649.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Investing.com -- Rosenblatt analyst Mike Genovese believes the recent DeepSeek-related sell-off in the optical and Ethernet networking space is “likely a head fake,” urging investors to buy the dip. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the global tech stocks on Monday, including Optical transceiver names like Lumentum Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:LITE) and Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI), and Ethernet Switch (NYSE:SWCH) stocks such as Fabrinet (NYSE:FN). Genovese is skeptical about DeepSeek’s claims about training efficiency and cost of its AI model R1, such as completing training on 2,048 Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) H800 GPUs for under $6 million. "We tend to believe DeepSeek's claims about its infrastructure are not true, and R1 was likely trained on a much larger and more advanced compute cluster," Genovese said in a note. “In our opinion, it is more than likely DeepSeek used many more advanced GPUs than it claims, and this makes sense given trade restrictions and opportunity to be disruptive in more ways than one,” the analyst added. Despite the initial market turmoil, Rosenblatt does not expect US hyperscalers to pull back on capital expenditures (capex)in response to DeepSeek. Genovese highlighted that major players are projected to grow their capex by over 20% in 2025, building on $250 billion in 2024 investments. These funds will support large-scale GPU clusters and AI infrastructure, including plans for clusters scaling up to 1 million GPUs. "The US AI industry will keep its foot on the capex gas," he asserted. Rosenblatt’s optimism extends to the AI optical transceiver market, which is forecast to grow at a 24% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from $7.4 billion in 2024 to over $17 billion by 2028. Within this space, Lumentum and Applied Optoelectronics stand out due to their customer wins and technology leadership. Genovese also favors Fabrinet, citing its role in Nvidia’s AI transceiver production, and views the recent sell-off as overdone. In addition to the transceiver segment, the AI Ethernet switch market is expected to expand rapidly, with a 51% CAGR projected from $4 billion in 2024 to $20 billion by 2028. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) is seen as a key beneficiary of this growth, while Rosenblatt remains cautious on Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) due to valuation concerns and competitive pressures. Genovese also drew parallels between DeepSeek and Huawei, suggesting that DeepSeek’s pricing strategies and free offerings in the US market resemble Huawei’s prior aggressive tactics. “DeepSeek reminds us of Huawei in several ways, including taking short-cuts and not necessarily respecting US intellectual property laws,” Genovese noted. “There is also the fact that DeepSeek was offered for free to US consumers, which is reminiscent of Huawei's discounting, vendor financing and willingness to have heavy loss-leaders.” The analyst questioned the long-term adoption of DeepSeek by Western enterprises, citing data security risks and the potential for regulatory bans. Apart from the aforementioned stocks, Rosenblatt’s other favorite names in the sector include ADTRAN Inc (NASDAQ:ADTN), Ribbon Communications (NASDAQ:RBBN), Extreme Networks (NASDAQ:EXTR), and Calix (NYSE:CALX)." MY COMMENT Rational and reasonable commentary above. The bottom line....DO YOU REALLY TRUST CHINA? Everything about their business world is based on one thing.....STEALING and FRAUD.
In all the turmoil does anyone remember.....MICROSOFT reports earnings tomorrow. Apple reports the next day....Thursday.
One last point on DeepSeek....it is not new....it was known back in December....OVER A MONTH AGO....as can be seen below. ALSO...it is basically piggybacking on ChatGPT. Why DeepSeek's new AI model thinks it's ChatGPT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-deepseeks-ai-model-thinks-184949663.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) FROM DECEMBER 27, 2024.......YES.....DECEMBER of 2024. "Earlier this week, DeepSeek, a well-funded Chinese AI lab, released an "open" AI model that beats many rivals on popular benchmarks. The model, DeepSeek V3, is large but efficient, handling text-based tasks like coding and writing essays with ease. It also seems to think it's ChatGPT. Posts on X — and TechCrunch's own tests — show that DeepSeek V3 identifies itself as ChatGPT, OpenAI's AI-powered chatbot platform. Asked to elaborate, DeepSeek V3 insists it is a version of OpenAI's GPT-4 model released in 2023. The delusions run deep. If you ask DeepSeek V3 a question about DeepSeek's API, it'll give you instructions on how to use OpenAI's API. DeepSeek V3 even tells some of the same jokes as GPT-4 — down to the punchlines. So what's going on? Models like ChatGPT and DeepSeek V3 are statistical systems. Trained on billions of examples, they learn patterns in those examples to make predictions — like how "to whom" in an email typically precedes "it may concern." DeepSeek hasn't revealed much about the source of DeepSeek V3's training data. But there's no shortage of public datasets containing text generated by GPT-4 via ChatGPT. If DeepSeek V3 was trained on these, the model might've memorized some of GPT-4's outputs and is now regurgitating them verbatim. "Obviously, the model is seeing raw responses from ChatGPT at some point, but it's not clear where that is," Mike Cook, a research fellow at King’s College London specializing in AI, told TechCrunch. "It could be 'accidental' … but unfortunately, we have seen instances of people directly training their models on the outputs of other models to try and piggyback off their knowledge." Cook noted that the practice of training models on outputs from rival AI systems can be "very bad" for model quality, because it can lead to hallucinations and misleading answers like the above. "Like taking a photocopy of a photocopy, we lose more and more information and connection to reality," Cook said. It might also be against those systems' terms of service. OpenAI's terms prohibit users of its products, including ChatGPT customers, from using outputs to develop models that compete with OpenAI's own. OpenAI and DeepSeek didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. However, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted what appeared to be a dig at DeepSeek and other competitors on X Friday. "It is (relatively) easy to copy something that you know works," Altman wrote. "It is extremely hard to do something new, risky, and difficult when you don't know if it will work." Granted, DeepSeek V3 is far from the first model to misidentify itself. Google's Gemini and others sometimes claim to be competing models. For example, prompted in Mandarin, Gemini says that it's Chinese company Baidu's Wenxinyiyan chatbot. And that's because the web, which is where AI companies source the bulk of their training data, is becoming littered with AI slop. Content farms are using AI to create clickbait. Bots are flooding Reddit and X. By one estimate, 90% of the web could be AI-generated by 2026. This "contamination," if you will, has made it quite difficult to thoroughly filter AI outputs from training datasets. It's certainly possible that DeepSeek trained DeepSeek V3 directly on ChatGPT-generated text. Google was once accused of doing the same, after all. Heidy Khlaaf, chief AI scientist at the nonprofit AI Now Institute, said the cost savings from "distilling" an existing model's knowledge can be attractive to developers, regardless of the risks. "Even with internet data now brimming with AI outputs, other models that would accidentally train on ChatGPT or GPT-4 outputs would not necessarily demonstrate outputs reminiscent of OpenAI customized messages," Khlaaf said. "If it is the case that DeepSeek carried out distillation partially using OpenAI models, it would not be surprising." More likely, however, is that a lot of ChatGPT/GPT-4 data made its way into the DeepSeek V3 training set. That means the model can't be trusted to self-identify, for one. But what is more concerning is the possibility that DeepSeek V3, by uncritically absorbing and iterating on GPT-4's outputs, could exacerbate some of the model's biases and flaws." MY COMMENT OK....I am going to do it. I am going to call....BULL SH*T....on DeepSeek. I think the inferences above along with the other doubts about what they have done.....are correct. Knowing the Chinese and their history of theft and fraud also plays into my opinion. I suspect.......and personally believe.......that the Chinese simply "cloned" (not a tech term of art, I am using the word "cloned" as a lay-person, not in a literal tech way) and trained off ChatGPT......as mentioned above. There is a reason DeepFake thinks it it ChatGPT....there is a reason for VERBATIM responses.....it used it to train.....and is basically.....a disguised version of.....GASP.....ChatGPT. (This is simply my personal opinion and suspicion.....simply my personal allegation). Of course there is really no way this will be known. It is simply an ALLEGATION by "me" that will not ever be proven one way or the other.........since TOTAL CONTROL of DeepSeek....is held by the most brutal communist dictatorship in the world......responsible for slaughtering tens, if not hundreds of, millions of people.....as well as rampant business theft, and fraud.
So regarding the above....now the question is how and why this story....was put out there on Sunday night.....just before big tech earnings week? AND....why it was pushed hard onto the financial media, when everyone was ignoring it in December and before. Yes....I am putting a big fat....CONSPIRACY STORY out there.....LOL.
You are actually probably closer than you think with that theory. The shady part with the other country…..spot on. The media ran into the street like Paul Revere. A lot of money moved on this deal.
My takeaway from this DeepSeek story is as follows: 1. This piece of code is, in fact, a big deal to begin to democratize AI to the smaller guys with a lower cost of entry now. 2. It did this off the backs of the U.S. AI firms and their insane infrastructure devoted to training. That point gets lost often. 3. It remains to be seen what this means for high margin Nvidia GPUs for datacenters, but my money is that those will still be sold out just like now. I am sure any cancellations by the big players will be snatched up by new entrants, emboldened by the now lower cost of entry to what was only attainable by corporations with billion dollar contracts. 4. I am still sure the U.S. government will still need LOTS of GPU horsepower for emerging medical and environmental fields of research. 5. The Chinese government is every bit as shady as they are portrayed, BUT the U.S. ain't no saint by a long shot. Without getting into politics, we are blatantly lied to daily about what is and isn't happening and trained constantly on how to view the rest of the world, so I tend to think most of what either government says is propaganda to suit their respective agenda. 6. This is why I tend to listen to the nerds of subjects I am into, and they mostly think Chinese engineers are every bit as brilliant as American ones when it comes to code and ML optimizations based on what hardware they have. 7. In other words, the governments are full of crap and spin everything, but the intellectuals in each country are completely engaged in a war of cutting edge technology, and since China has a LOT of very smart people to draw from, I fully expect them to close the gap of what the U.S. can do in a timeframe that is less than what we are being told. It's simply a game of numbers and brainpower. The GPU embargo will only buy us time. My only hope is that China and the U.S. will learn to work together rather than against each other. That can only happen when both shed their imperialistic aspirations. The last part is fantasy, but I can dream, can't I?
Hey, rg, I appreciate your comments and take them on board. I understand there is a fair bit of risk involved. However, I have a decent job. I'm never more than 3/4 weeks away from a pay check. I can't think of anything I would need a large amount of cash for. I have a 0% interest credit card I can call on in an emergency. I have home, car insurance etc... If I were to be made redundant at work, I would get a good redundancy package. Obviously circumstances can change quickly and I need to keep things under review. For now, I'm happy to take the risk.
