AND....no markets on Monday....another our day week. with the timing of Christmas, New Years, MLK day, and now Presidents day it seems like we have had way too many short weeks over the past 2 months.
In the first sentence and middle of this little article about next week....is basically an admission....that all the inflation BS we had to endure in the media last week was just that.....BS. Stocks near record highs as investors await Fed minutes, manufacturing update https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-update-what-to-know-this-week-124503855.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 (^GSPC) chugged to a record high last week as new inflation data signaled good news about the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans. For the week, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose more than 2.5%, while the S&P 500 added just under 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added about 0.5%. Corporate earnings season will roll on, headlined by quarterly reports from Alibaba (BABA) and Walmart (WMT). Overall, 46 S&P 500 companies are expected to announce results during the holiday-shortened trading week. The week ahead will bring a quieter flow of economic news. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting and updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sector, as well as consumer sentiment, will be in focus for investors. Markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day. On hold Last week, two fresh inflation readings for the month of January showed prices increased more than Wall Street had expected, but economists found positive news for markets and the Federal Reserve within the details. When evaluating categories from both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) that feed into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumptions Expenditures (PCE) index, it appears that price increases likely slowed in the month of January. Economists now expect "core" PCE, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, will likely clock in at 2.6% in January, down from the 2.8% seen in December. This leaves markets pricing in one or two interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, little changed from the week prior, per Bloomberg data. And importantly, many economists still think the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates rather than hiking them. "We think the bar for Fed hikes remains high," Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "The evolution of inflation expectations and second-round effects from tariffs on services inflation remain key points of emphasis. But, for now, we still think the distribution of Fed policy outcomes skews in the direction of rate cuts as opposed to hikes." Investors will be looking to the Fed's minutes from its January meeting, due out for release on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, for any further clues on how the central bank is thinking about the path forward for interest rates. More magnificent stocks The S&P 500 is back near a record high, and this time around, it's not all about a handful of tech stocks. Yes, Meta (META) stock has risen for 20 straight days and its more than 25% gain this year has contributed to the S&P 500's increase. But Meta and Amazon (AMZN) are the only Magnificent Seven tech stocks to have outperformed the S&P 500 thus far in 2025. Meanwhile, the number of companies outpacing the index's 4% gain has soared to start 2025. As of Wednesday's close, 48% of the S&P 500 is outperforming the index in 2025, in line with the 25-year median and above the 29% seen last year. As Richard Bernstein Advisors CEO Richard Bernstein pointed out in Yahoo Finance's latest Chartbook, the last two years had marked the lowest number of stocks outperforming the index in 25 years. Freedom Capital Markets chief global strategist Jay Woods told Yahoo Finance the number of stocks participating in the current rally shows strength within the bull market but doesn't exactly mean the benchmark index itself will shoot higher. "If we get a bad report out of Nvidia in a few weeks [on Feb. 26], then we could see the market turn lower," Woods said. "But we'll still see rotation, just not into the names that are really making headlines." AI trade rolls on While many of the Magnificent Seven haven't been the market leaders this year, AI euphoria appears alive and well in markets. AI software company Palantir (PLTR) is the top performer in the S&P 500 in 2025, rising more than 55%, followed by Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which is also up over 50%. Aggressive moves in other AI plays on Friday underscored this theme as investors quickly dumped some stocks and bought positions in others after Nvidia disclosed its latest equity holdings. The AI chip giant ditched positions in Serve Robotics (SERV) and SoundHound (SOUN). Both stocks sold off on the news. Meanwhile, shares of WeRide (WRD), a Chinese autonomous driving play, saw its stock nearly double." MY COMMENT So what do we know from the above: 1. The media was full of CRAP last week fear-mongering the inflation data. I suspect much of it was driven by people that are against the current government and want to see it fail. 2. All the DOOM&GLOOM last year about the market advance not being broad enough was....yes.....simply more media CRAP. 3. The "economists" are MORONS. 4. The hatred and cheering for NVDA to fail or fall on it's face for a quarter or two continues to be alive and well and rampant in the media as the underlying "hope". We have lived and interested through constant chatter and BS regarding NVDA for the past 6-8 months.
I have a few more earnings to come....WMT this week. And after that: February 25 HD. February 26 NVDA. March 6 COST. After COST we can have peace for 4-5 weeks till it all starts over again.
AMAZING....on a typical market day the media I look at is dominated and full of fear-mongering and doom and gloom. Today a market holiday....hardly any.....as I skim my usual media sources. There is a bit more emphasis on politics....but very little investing DOOM. When the markets are closed.......most of the DOOM BS.....simply disappears. So......I assume that all the negativity, fear-mongering and doom are.......market-open media strategy......mostly to drive clicks. Although, I do not discount the possibility that some or even a good percentage of the DOOM is driven by media trying to disrupt or distort the markets. In other words....anti-business....anti-capitalist.....and often political bias.....reflecting personal views and opinions of writers and reporters.....or....reflecting a hidden bias or agenda of the writer or media source. I also do not discount that some of this negativity is simply media....go along to get along behavior....or copy-cat behavior by lazy journalists and media sources. The bottom line......trusting or acting on any media story as an investor is simply....STUPID.
As a BABY BOOMER this is INSANE to me. Of course....we grew up in the 1950's when every house had a big black dial phone.....often siting in some hallway niche near the front door. Later in the 1960's homes often also had a princess type wall phone in the kitchen and perhaps one in the primary bedroom. In my lifetime I have seen and participated in every phase of the cell phone revolution......from the first "car phones that were hard wired....to the first brick type phones......to the first flip phone StarTac.......to the Razor.....and on to smart phones. My kids....as early MILLENNIALS.....also participated in this history. The oldest...... had a phone in his rooms when an early teen. For a short time they had pagers. We than moved them on to regular flip phones when they were state of the art. NOW.....apparently....many younger people had no idea how to handle an actual phone call. This is a very interesting article. Gen Z battling with phone anxiety are taking telephobia courses to learn the lost art of a call https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/17/gen...-courses-to-learn-the-lost-art-of-a-call.html ACTUALLY.....if you look at the article this is WORSE than the headline makes it appear. As an older person this is shocking and beyond understanding......but....I dont doubt it. Are we raising a generation of WIMPS? Or is this simply....PROGRESS? After all.....not many people know how to ride a horse or drive a wagon anymore. LOL....this reminds me of another recent article that some places...like museums, research libraries, etc, etc..... are hiring people that know how to read cursive.
I agree completely. Why the way you think about Social Security and retirement income is all wrong, says index fund legend https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/15/inv...out-social-security-income-the-wrong-way.html (BOLD is my opinion ORR what I consider important content) "Key Points The steady stream of income from Social Security should be factored into an investor’s asset allocation strategy but typically is not, index fund pioneer Charley Ellis told CNBC’s Bob Pisani on this week’s “ETF Edge.” Based on a lot of the recent dire headlines, many Americans may have come to think of Social Security as an asset that is going to disappear from their financial future rather than be part of it, but it may be a bigger factor in portfolio success than it gets credit for, according to investing legend Charles Ellis. The steady stream of income provided by Social Security can influence asset allocation decisions that improve overall performance, says Ellis, who has written many books on investing and helped to pioneer the index fund space. “We don’t talk about it. We don’t measure it. We don’t quantify it. But it’s a substantial asset,” Ellis told CNBC’s Bob Pisani on “ETF Edge” this week. He argues Social Security functions similarly to an inflation-protected bond. Yet, it is rarely factored into investor asset allocation plans. Overlooking Social Security can be a big mistake, said Ellis, whose books on finance include “Winning the Loser’s Game,” and whose new book is “Rethinking Investing – A Very Short Guide to Very Long-Term Investing.” “Be very surprised if you don’t have something on the order of $250[000] to $350,000 coming your way through the Social Security program,” Ellis said on “ETF Edge.” Failing to recognize this can lead to overly cautious investing, he added. The SP 500 has averaged around 12% annual returns since 1928, according to New York University Stern. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury has returned just about 5% over the same time period. Ellis says Social Security’s steady income stream allows for greater stock exposure. “Almost anybody looking at the reason for holding bonds talks about the desire to reduce the fluctuations,” he said. He gave the example of an inheritance that an adult child expects as a parallel thought experiment. “If you have wealthy parents that are going to give you an inheritance in the future, any of those things that you really know are valued, why not include them in your thinking so that you won’t overweight yourself in fixed income?” “Why not include [Social Security] in your thinking?” Ellis said." MY COMMENT I dont buy or believe any of the constant decade long Social Security DOOM thinking. Much of it is driven by nasty POLITICIANS trying to scare voters. I have no doubt that anyone age 30 or over will get Social Security as part of their retirement. For us it is a significant asset since we get a bit over $50,000 per year. And.....with cost of living raises it DOES compound. I do include it in my investment thinking.....with our income annuities and Social Security.....we are able to be fully invested in stocks and funds for life.
Oh my. I just had to read it. "Breathing exercises, a quite room, courses to help with the anxiety".....this is hilarious. Of course it is the media reporting it, so who knows if even a portion of it is accurate.
AND....one final little......"the markets are closed today......article. The biggest self-defeating mistakes investors make in trying to beat the market https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/16/the-5-biggest-self-defeating-mistakes-investors-make-in-market.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Among all the hurdles you face in trying to beat the market, maybe none is as great as yourself, says index investing pioneer Charley Ellis. He addressed many of the biases that hold investors back, including the gambler’s fallacy and the herd mentality, on a recent CNBC “ETF Edge” appearance. Index investing pioneer Charley Ellis says what gave rise to the success of the index fund remains true today: “It’s virtually impossible to beat the market,” he told CNBC’s Bob Pisani on last Monday’s “ETF Edge.” But Ellis warns of another hurdle just as high as active management’s long-term underperformance that holds back many investors: You might be your own worst enemy when it comes to your investment strategy. The market’s complexities, volatility and an infinite number of other variables can cause unpredictable price fluctuations, but your own mindset is just as key among the variables that can set your financial portfolio back. In his new book, “Rethinking Investing,” Ellis details a slew of unconscious biases that impact our thinking about money in the market. A few of the big ones he addresses in the book: The gambler’s fallacy: The belief that because you were right picking one stock, you will be right picking all other stocks. Confirmation bias: Seeking information that confirms pre-existing beliefs. Herd mentality: Blindly following actions of a larger group. Sunk cost fallacy: Continuing to invest in failing investments. Availability: Being influenced by easily accessible information, whether it is actually valuable or not. The impacts of these biases on your portfolio strategy can be major, Ellis says, and should lead investors to “rethink” their approach to the market. “Instead of trying to get more, try to pay less,” he said. “That’s why ETFs ... have made such great sense.” Research shows that ETFs typically have lower fees than traditional actively managed mutual funds, though traditional index mutual funds such as S&P 500 funds from Vanguard and Fidelity are also have ultra-low fees (some are even management fee-free). Ellis argues that use of lower fee funds, combined with letting go of our behavioral biases, can help investors win years, or even decades, later. “They’re boring, so we leave them alone, and they do work out over the long run, very, very handsomely,” he said. Long-time ETF expert Dave Nadig, who appeared on “ETF Edge” with Ellis, agreed. “People trying to predict people always works out terribly,” Nadig said. A long-term investment in an index fund “helps you overcome an enormous number of these biases simply because you’ll pay less attention to it,” he added. He also pointed to the mistake many investors make of trying to beat the market by timing it, only to end up outsmarting themselves. “There are more good days than bad days,” Nadig said. “If you’re missing the 10 best days in the market and you missed the worst 10 days in the market, you’re still much worse off than if you just stayed invested. The math on that’s pretty hard to argue with.” MY COMMENT Above is classic rationale for LONG TERM INVESTING. Especially in BIG INDEX ETF's. Although there are actually.....yes, some of us.....a very few of us.....that have been able to beat the markets. Even long term. Of course this reflects a VERY RARE combination of of personal....luck....education.....experience.....personality....and many other factors. (EMPHASIS on LUCK and random personal circumstance that is NOT necessarily repeatable....if you had to do it all over again for a lifetime) AND....there are massive numbers of so-called investors that "THINK" they are beating the markets. In reality many of them are simply.....DELUSIONAL.
LOL.....Smokie.....you have got to love modern college classes. I have seen many articles regarding many younger people that consider it bad manners to call someone on a phone out of the blue. Anyway that is it for me today.....I have wasted enough time with the markets closed.
Both comments above "hit the nail on the head." Just this morning, I decided against my better judgment to check out the news. After a short period of time, I simply turned it off. I am not sure how anybody can take that in everyday. Not to mention, it runs 24/7 now. It is mostly all political commentary or pushing out a particular narrative. I get the sense that most media now believe that most viewers are incapable of forming their own conclusions and therefore must shape the narrative. Maybe they are right at this point. The financial media is not much different. We are an information driven society though. Many have grown accustomed to anyone else telling them what they should know or even do. It really doesn't need to be accurate, it just needs to be put out there.
The low fees and a broad market index fund are a gift to investors. A very inexpensive piece to your financial plan. For young investors, take the time to develop a long term plan in the beginning. This includes a career with some good benefits, managing your debt wisely, having an additional investment account, taking advantage of any employer match with your plan, and start as early as you can. Stick with it. Set up your contributions schedule and keep doing it. Just keep swinging. Time in the market is your friend at this early stage. Several years down the road one will be surprised how much the accounts have grown despite all of the "noise."
You said it Smokie......"develop a long term plan".....EARLY in life. That is one thing about me and achieving things in my life in sports, school, music, investing, etc, etc......I always have a long term plan. From my early work years in my early 20's I was already planing for achieving wealth and a good retirement. I have always had a long term life plan and investing plan. When it all goes to SH*T....you make adjustments and move forward....but.....always with a plan. Planing and working hard and being a.....fanatically competitive person....has allowed me to achieve things that I am sure others look at me and how in the "F" did he do that. LOL.....I have made a life-long "thing" of always being underestimated. After a while I learned to use that.....underestimating....to my advantage.
In addition to my post above, it is a great investment for older investors (like myself) too. I am likely the most boring investor within this thread. Once I simplified my portfolio, I think I have only picked up one or two companies at a bit of a discount and then sold out out of them for a decent gain. I just simply did not care to keep up with them anymore. I still enjoy earnings and the market in general, but I do not have to keep tabs on much of anything within my plan. It is simple and easy to manage.
That list above is a.....BEAUTIFUL THING......to behold. Look at that amazing run from 2003 to now. Over 22 years with only.....THREE.....losing years. AND.....other than two times (1973/1974 and 2000/2001/2002)......NEVER....more than one losing year before the positive returns happen again. Can you imagine the amazing compounding if you were an investor in the SP500 from 1950 till 2023......and....were reinvesting all capital gains and dividends? NOW.....that is the POWER of long term investing.
Isn't it? I like to refer to it from time to time. It is a good grounding tool about what you so frequently refer to as the "probabilities" in regard to investing. Secondly, it lays bare the powerful concept of long term investing. Think about all of the "noise." We hear it all of the time. The predictions, the pundits, the forecasters, and all that comes with it. For me, it really turns the table on that type of thinking. With all that has been said....the proof is right in front of us. Third, think about all of the events that have occurred during that time span. There were some major ones. I remember some of them. And yet, we are still here with the opportunity to continue our journey of creating some wealth. Let that sink in for a bit.
OK....I own this stock.....PLTR. And....I have benefited greatly from the big gains and riding the wave. BUT....this is just CRAZY. 5 days................................+6.33% 1 Month.............................+66.00% YTD (1.5 months).............+58.48% Especially +66% in......ONE MONTH. I like it....but....come on. At the same time....I will not sell any but will continue to ride the wave....at this point I am not standing on my surf board.....I am laying down on it hanging on for dear life.
PLTR mentioned above. I actually like their work with DOD and such. But, yikes!!! You have guts and glory all in one on this one. See, if I held this I would be probably distracted by it. I don't mean any shade to you or anyone that has it either. It has certainly been on a run to say the least. The great thing for me, is I can watch you guys out there on the "wave" and cheer you on.....from the beach.
It have a small position in PLTR as well but may trim some here in the near future and buy back in on the next correction. I'll keep the majority that I bought in at what I consider a pretty safe price and sell the ones I picked up recently. We will see. I have some taxes to pay from moving all my AMD into NVDA last year so this may be where I trim from.
