This headline is a perfect example of the media DISTORTIONS that I talk about above: CEO Alex Karp Is Dumping Palantir Stock. Should You? https://www.barchart.com/story/news/31055769/ceo-alex-karp-is-dumping-palantir-stock-should-you
Yeah the article title above is a bit click bait. Of course it worked, I took a read on it. It actually wasn’t as bad as you might think based on the title. There was a section in there discussing the recent Q4 performance and some of the contracts and things they are doing. I found that interesting. It does mention the sell plan and offers a bit about it, but didn’t seem overly negative about it. Of course these are required filings with any management. They did get into the price and valuation with some analyst thoughts for good measure though. I think they are an interesting company. Time will tell if they have staying power in this area. This field is developing as we speak.
LOL.....I did not even read the article. It was just an example of a ridiculous headline. Yeah with PLTR.....time will tell. At least the founders and people involved are Tech ROYALTY.....so hopefully they know what they are doing. When I first got it I got 104....free shares.....I dont remember if it was a short term play on earnings or a stock split play or what it was. BUT....I made a margin buy......and quickly cashed it in.....leaving me with 104 free shares as profit. I did it based on ZUKODANY constantly pumping the stock. Since than I added and added shares and finally got it up to a full position.....in terms of dollar value.... in all accounts. At this point I have gains......mostly..... in the 200% to 500% range. As I have read more and more about it I have liked it more and more. They seem to have a good business model with government and private business. BUT.....they have only been a public company for just over 4 years....since September 2020. Pretty amazing to go from a new stock in September 2020 and now they are.....THE WORLDS.....49th most valuable company by market cap as of 2-21.25. They are the 38th largest company in the SP500 by market cap. Pretty Crazy. Probably by far my most speculative full position holding. Of course it mostly became a full size position.....as a percentage of my entire portfolio.......due to the massive gains adding value to the holding. So all in all I dont have as much in it compared to my other stocks. They certainly have some real money and power behind them at this point.....now lets see if they can continue to perform. They were certainly a BRIGHT SPOT in earnings with their last report. At least they now have MASSIVE name recognition........and....... that should help them to acquire new customers and sell product. I would think that they have a big leg up with the current government and will benefit greatly from what the defense department and government does over the next four years. In addition their private business model seems to be booming. As many on here know....I tend to like HIGH MOMENTUM....BIG CAP GROWTH stocks.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) (BRK-A) annual letter from Warren Buffett for those who may want to read it. 2024
Here is what we will face next week......short term "stuff".....that will plague us long term investors. Nvidia earnings and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...n-gauge-what-to-know-this-week-130330301.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks limped into the weekend as a string of economic data sparked concerns about slower-than-expected economic growth and sticky inflation. After closing at an all-time high on Wednesday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished down about 1.7% on the week as a disappointing outlook from Walmart (WMT) and concerns about inflation took center stage. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell about 2% as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led the losses, falling nearly 3%. Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings release after the bell on Wednesday is expected to headline the week ahead, with reports from Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), and Salesforce (CRM) also in focus. In economic data, investors will be closely watching the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, on Friday. A second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter as well as updates on consumer confidence and housing prices are expected. Price check With inflation still above the Fed's target and the labor market on solid footing, markets are betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of 2025. A fresh look at a key inflation measure will come on Friday with the January PCE release. Economists project annual "core" PCE — which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy — to have clocked in at 2.6% in January, down from the 2.7% seen in December. Over the prior month, economists project "core" PCE at 0.3%, above the 0.2% seen the month prior. Due to a difference in components, the data is expected to show a more muted pace of price increase for the month of January than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). That report showed the largest rise in core prices since April 2023. Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients that a 2.6% increase in core PCE for January "implies a meaningful step down in the 12-month pace of core inflation" and is in line with their call for a quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut from the Fed in June. All eyes on Nvidia The market's AI darling is set to report quarterly results after the bell on Wednesday. Analysts expect Nvidia to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.84, up 63% from the year prior. Meanwhile, revenue is projected to be $38.26 billion, up 73% from the same quarter last year. Investors will be waiting to hear what Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says about the environment for AI chip demand and whether he will address potential rising competition in the AI space from China's DeepSeek. The report comes as most of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, including Nvidia, have lagged the S&P 500 so far this year and aren't contributing nearly as much to the gains seen in the benchmark average as in the past two years. "The stock could be volatile post results, but we expect positive momentum to resume as investors look forward to Nvidia's leading new product pipeline (GB300, Rubin) and total addressable market expansion into robotics and quantum technologies at upcoming GTC conference (March 17)," Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya wrote in a note to clients. 'Uncertainty' abound While stocks have been resilient through a wide swath of headlines about President Donald Trump's policies, concerns are appearing in various survey data points. On Friday morning, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey index hit its lowest level since November 2023 while economic output measured by S&P Global's flash US composite PMI tumbled to its lowest level in 17 months. Concerns about tariffs and their potential to boost inflation were front and center in both releases. “The upbeat mood seen among US businesses at the start of the year has evaporated, replaced with a darkening picture of heightened uncertainty, stalling business activity and rising prices," S&P Global Market Intelligence chief economist Chris Williamson said in the release. "Companies report widespread concerns about the impact of federal government policies, ranging from spending cuts to tariffs and geopolitical developments." Williamson added that optimism about the year ahead has swung to "one of the gloomiest since the pandemic." Stocks sold off on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow down more than 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite sliding over 2%. While it was just one day of selling in a market that's been hovering near record highs and there were a few gloomy data points, the market action reflects some jitteriness among investors right now. With stock valuations near a record high, Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert told Yahoo Finance the market's path higher in 2025 will likely come with more bumps as investors attempt to price in the impacts of Trump's policies. "Our view is that there's still upside to the S&P between now and year-end," Chronert said. "But between here and there is probably an ongoing period of volatility and concern that keeps us looking for pullbacks and better buying points."" MY COMMENT As usual next week the markets will face an onslaught of media negativity, distortions, and nit-picking. Actual investors need to learn to IGNORE it all. Actually....I think they usually do....but the power and money involved in headline and news trading by the AI TRADERS usually SWAMPS the markets on negative days. We are in a time period of market INSANITY. We hit an all time high on Wednesday and the next two days see massive drops....mostly...based on media driven story-lines. All anyone can do is hang on and ENDURE it all. Jumping in and out of the markets, or trading, or market timing, is not going to help and usually will simply result in churning your portfolio and driving even larger losses. This sort of environment makes me believe that there is basically NOTHING that NVDA can report that will satisfy the short term market movers. I hope I am wrong and for once rational thinking will apply....but....I have not seen much of that over the short term lately. So short term I have ZERO confidence in the markets....even though I do have confidence in business....especially big cap business. That does not mean the markets will necessarily be negative...it means that I have ZERO confidence that anyone can predict or count on anything short term.....even when news is good It is all EXTREME and RANDOM and IRRATIONAL. Long term I am still very positive as usual......in the hope that fundamentals WILL actually count.
Smokie has a link to the BUFFETT letter above. Warren Buffett amasses more cash and sells more stock, but doesn’t explain why in annual letter https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/22/war...-but-doesnt-explain-why-in-annual-letter.html
Yes, the annual shareholder letter linked in my post is a whole (15) pages long. As usual, it is well written and almost as if it is a conversation between him and the reader at a small coffee shop. I have enjoyed reading through them over the years. What is interesting, but certainly not surprising, is the media takes on most of his letters. I noticed soon after this letter arrived there were instantly financial articles popping up about it. I wondered how many of the reporters even actually sat down and read the thing. It did not take long to see the headlines such as the one above. I am not surprised by the overwhelming majority of them that were just flat out inaccurate. Maybe it is because he took a few subtle shots at them and Wall Street.
And as WXYZ's post above about the "week ahead" so clearly demonstrates....we are inundated with mostly useless information for the long term. Notice how they always craft their information. One sentence will almost be a certainty and then quickly followed up with a "may", "but", "uncertain", "could", and so on. We complain about it. We point out some of the nonsense regularly. It is here to stay and is not suddenly going to change from its current state to a more fundamental, rational output. Way too much money involved to do that. And, quite honestly, we are not likely their targeted audience. There is usually a study or two put out by Fidelity and Vanguard on occasion regarding retirement accounts. I think the last one I read was around the downturn a a couple of years back. It showed that an overwhelming majority of those investors just kept making contributions and even increased contributions. There was no jumping in/out....just a steady march forward despite all of the noise. They set-up their plan and went on about their life. They will be handsomely rewarded in the end. Yes, there are times to conduct reviews, check your progress, maybe even make some adjustments as you go through life, and approach retirement. These are all reasonable and actionable things based on your long term goals. They are not based on a whim or some talking head. Of course all investors are free to choose their own path.
The markets started out today nicely....but....that has mostly fizzled as the opening gains on the futures has evaporated. Now we have the SP500 flat and the NASDAQ in the red. Looking for direction early today....as the markets continue the recent confusion....a few days after hitting all time highs. WOOPIE-DO.
YEP.....a good description of the market. The Big Picture https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Market primed to go everywhere and nowhere A roller coaster ride is an apt reference for a feeling that you have gone everywhere and nowhere all at once. There is trepidation and/or excitement on the climb followed by fear and/or exhilaration as the car you are riding in starts to accelerate on its stomach-dropping descent over the first hill. Then, there is jubilation and/or pandemonium as the car careens around the track, perhaps throwing you for a loop or two along the way, before screeching to a stop. In your mind, you have gone everywhere, but in reality, you have gone nowhere. When the roller-coaster ride ends, you are right back to where you started. A roller-coaster ride may be an apt reference for the feeling of going everywhere and nowhere all at once, yet it might also end up being a metaphor for the stock market, which has had its moments of fear, exhilaration, jubilation, and pandemonium already this year. And there is more of that to come. Tough to Stay on Track With all the twists and turns in early 2025, the market-cap weighted S&P 500 is up 2.3% year-to-date as of this writing while the equal-weighted S&P 500 is up 2.7%. The gains, however, haven't felt convincing. There has been a lot of tossing and turning from one day to the next. Some days value outperforms growth. Other days growth outperforms value. Some days cyclical sectors outperform countercyclical sectors. Other days countercyclical sectors outperform cyclical sectors. Some days small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks. Other days large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks. You get the drift. The main point of the back-and-forth action for investors is that the net change has been positive. Let's hope it stays that way, yet it seems unlikely to be as easy to stay on a positive track as it was in 2024 for a variety of reasons. The expectation of multiple rate cuts that prevailed in 2024 has been replaced by a brooding belief that sticky inflation and policy uncertainty will leave the Fed reluctant to cut rates in 2025. The multiple expansion throughout 2024 has created valuation angst in 2025, as the market cap-weighted S&P 500 trades at a robust premium to its 10-year average while the ratio of the Wilshire 5000 market cap to nominal GDP is north of 200% (a zone equated as "playing with fire," according to Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway continues to sit on a mountain of cash). There is talk of tax cuts and deregulation, both of which are exciting possibilities for the stock market, yet that excitement gets tempered by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and deportation initiatives. DOGE has been lauded as a needed effort to cut government spending, but big cuts in government spending are expected to weigh on economic growth. There is huge promise in AI applications, yet there are festering questions as to whether the big AI spenders will see a meaningful return on that investment. Fourth quarter earnings results have been much better than expected, as discussed last week, yet the first quarter earnings growth estimate has been slashed to 7.6% from 11.6% on December 31, according to FactSet, while the calendar year 2025 growth estimate has been trimmed to 12.1% from 13.3% on December 31. It is a trend in the wrong direction for a market sporting a premium earnings multiple. Various reports suggest there could be some dissension in the GOP ranks as the bid to cut taxes runs headlong into a need to cut the deficit, meaning the market's tax cut enthusiasm could get stifled if deficit hawks stand in the way of the president's more aggressive tax cut plans. From a short-term perspective, there are conflicting "contrarian indicators," with the AAII's bearish sentiment reading on the high side (40.5% vs 31.0% historical average) and a BofA Securities global fund manager survey indicating cash positions are at their lowest level (3.5%) since 2010. What It All Means There are a lot of "big" issues that lack closure. That will keep market participants guessing more than usual with respect to the outlook for the economy, interest rates, and the market itself. The sticking point for many is that the premium valuation at which the market trades has effectively priced in the continuation of good news happening on all fronts. The allowance for bad news is in one's mind more so than it is in stock prices. Things aren't lining up perfectly right now, which is why we have seen the tossing and turning to start the year. Those are features of a roller-coaster ride, so keep your seatbelts fastened. This market needs closure in the data to have a better sense of what is coming around the next turn. Absent that it seems primed to go everywhere and nowhere." MY COMMENT I have noticed that much of the so called business and financial news is now simply......politics. It has infected the financial media and is overwhelming talk of fundamentals and everything else. it is the day to day topic of the moment...day after day. All this speculative political commentary and opinion mixing into the markets is making investors jumpy. We are seeing the short term power of AI TRADING manipulating and driving the markets every day based on headlines and opinion content in the news. This also leads to nervousness on the part of......"some".....retail investors who are taking profits and feeling more and more nervous. Human behavior in action and on parade right now.......and....it is not a good look.
Good news for the USA.....AAPL.......and shareholders. Apple announces $500 billion US investment in bet 'on the future of American innovation' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...-future-of-american-innovation-110106571.html
The market skittishness and self-flagellation and over-analysis of everything......is making the NVDA earnings this week worthless. Under these conditions it is impossible for those earnings to matter or mean anything. 'No matter how good the earnings are they will be ignored and at the same time disrespected. We will see the usual flood of fear-mongering about DeepSeek, Blackwell, and all the other made up story lines. The actual earnings will NOT matter one bit. That is what I am expecting.
The current market drop today and the past three days.....is based on NOTHING. I continue to see NOTHING in the news of commentary.....that is actually financial or business based. With this sort of market action......I would put the odds of a broad based market correction at......at least 50/50....probably a bit more. There is just no direction or confidence in the markets right now. The markets are just standing out in the cold right now....naked and confused. Probably about the best thing anyone could do right now is just go away......totally quit reading anything about the markets or investing....for about 6-8 months. That is what I would do if I was not doing this thread......so I would not have to see or hear all the short term BS that drives people and investors CRAZY.
Might happen. We went through all of last year without one. I thought it was a bit odd last year, but we just kept steam rolling along. We have had a good, long run with some great returns through a time period when most (pundits) didn't even think it was remotely possible. We may be due one and that really shouldn't surprise most investors I would think. Yes, if it begins or occurs, the henny penny's will be shouting louder than we have heard in quite some time. It is a normal part of investing, we've just had a good break from it. I'm not predicting this is the beginning of one at this time, but I doubt we go all year again without one either. The general index SP 500 is a bit over 2% YTD, the NASDAQ is barely positive, and the DOW is about 2.60%. So, not much cushion to wipe out the positive side so far this year. As a long termer, I will simply just buy some more shares at a discount.
Part of the market sell-off today. I think we are now seeing some...."little guys"...."retail investors"....starting to get nervous and taking profits. I have no plans to do so...it would be crazy from a fundamental perspective and also from a capital gains tax perspective. This is part of the....."CURSE"....that comes from being discovered by the general markets when you are a growing and booming company. One-time market favorite Palantir drops 11% on Monday and is now down nearly 30% from high https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/24/one...d-is-now-down-nearly-30percent-from-high.html "Palantir shares tumbled on Monday, building on last week’s declines as the hot trade continued to show signs of sputtering. The technology and defense stock dropped more than 11% on the day, on pace for its fourth straight losing session. That comes after the stock fell 15% last week. Last week’s declines came after the company disclosed a new stock sale plan for CEO Alex Karp. Comments from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reported by The Washington Post on plans to slash defense budgets also rattled investors of the company, which relies in part on government contracts. These moves have heightened fears that Palantir — which has seen its popularity among retail investors balloon over recent months — is now falling from grace. Indeed, the stock has plunged more than 24% compared with where it sat a week ago. Monday’s declines put the stock around 28% below the all-time high notched earlier this month. Still, the stock is up nearly 19% so far in 2025 — outpacing the S&P 500′s gain of nearly 2% over the same period. Palantir was the best performer in the S&P 500 last year with a surge of more than 340%. Palantir has gained a cult following of individual investors. Experts and company analysts point to Karp’s eccentric persona and the stock’s big run up as two drivers of interest from this group. On the other hand, most analysts polled by LSEG have a hold rating. The typical price target implies that shares can fall further." MY COMMENT More of the same old......distorted....claims bout the CEO selling stock and the defense department. BUT...that is just how it is with a......."CULT" stock. They make it sound like this is GameStop. NO....we are actually talking about a top 50 company in the world and the SP500. I LOVE the loaded language......"tumbled"...."hot trade"...."sputtering"...."falling from grace"....."cult following"....."forth straight losing session"....."plans to SLASH defense spending".......OMG......OMG. Run for the hills....the killer asteroid is coming. I am smiling and laughing to myself as I type this. In the end....this will actually make the stock stronger and more attractive as we see actual earnings over the rest of this year. That is my view.
We talked a bit upthread about Warren Buffett and BRK. Looks like their earnings pushed them to an ATH. Up just under 4%...so far today.
An old favorite in the thread NKE. Up near 5% today and just under 9% for the YTD. Maybe they are turning things around for those that are shareholders.
Here is a little more detail on a story that drove the markets down earlier today. Microsoft reiterates plan to invest $80 billion in AI, but may ‘adjust our infrastructure in some areas’ https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/24/microsoft-reiterates-plan-to-invest-80-billion-in-ai-.html "Key Points Microsoft said it might make some infrastructure adjustments but still plans to spend over $80 billion on capital expenditures this fiscal year, which ends in June. Analysts at TD Cowen circulated a note on Friday suggesting that the company has canceled data center leases."
