Looking ahead. Trump wants Powell out of the Fed. Waiting in the wings is Kevin Warsh https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-wants-fire-fed-chair-090036541.html Here is a little review of the background and thinking of the person that is on the list to replace Powell when his term is up.
i find the big averages data that I posted above interesting. With all the turmoil and drama and fear that was rampant in the media and elsewhere over the past three weeks....you would expect the markets to be WAY down. BUT....what do we see......the DOW down by less than 8%....FOR THE YEAR......the SP500 down just below 10%......and....the NASDAQ down by about 15.5%. NONE of these are shocking numbers and I would not call any of these a significant drop. Even my own result as of the close Friday......down 13.8%......FOR THE YEAR......is far from what I would have expected based on the tone of the media content over the past three weeks. The DOW and SP500 are not even in correction....yet. I consider my result and the NASADAQ as being in mild correction range. The TURMOIL and DRAMA.....so far....is way out of line with REALITY. Lets keep things in perspective.....in 2024 I ended the year at about +65%. Now I am down by about 13.5%. NOT exactly a big crisis. AND....at some point over the next 1-6 months when the BULL MARKET comes roaring back....I expect to make all those losses disappear.
I was thinking kind of the same thing with the broad index above. With it being roughly down about 10% YTD with all that has went on. One thing that has helped us in this stretch was that one big gainer day. It gave us a little boost. What a ride it was during that short time span. I went poking around at some of the favorites usually mentioned here. NVDA -26.62%, AAPL -19.22%, MSFT -12.14%, GOOG -19.55%, AMZN -21.62%, META -16.31%, TSLA -36.36%. Some old favorites....Phillip Morris (PM) +34.77%, KO +18.05%, BRKB +14.88%. Of course there are others, but that's just a few. I thought it was interesting. Not implying or suggesting anything, this is over a very short time frame and things will be in favor over others at any particular time. I think it was TireSmoke that mentioned a week or so back, when we were riding the waves up and down, how this made him appreciate being a long termer. I agreed wholeheartedly with that. The markets can turn on a dime, sometimes with little warning. All of the previous predictions, guesses, and forecasts quickly get revised or adjusted. All of this about a bear market, correction, recession, no recession, or bull market by folks saying it's going to start here or end there....all have one thing in common....they don't know. All looking for some justification they "called" it right at some point. For me, as a long term investor, it is all about the plan in place. Yes, the market gyrations are noticeable and all of the surrounding noise. The plan is built for it. I don't worry about when this "event" is going to start or end. The point is to construct something that can handle most of it. I don't know why people torture themselves with it. Yes, I do realize there are folks who are paid to forecast and all of that. I understand it and get that part of it. And I suppose it gives us all something to talk about and maybe have some fun guessing about it ourselves at times. I know there are others that actively trade and paying attention and timing things are part of their process....so no shade to them for doing what they enjoy doing.
Yes it is ALL about the plan as a whole and the portfolio as a whole. Look at those YTD figures above for my TECH stocks: NVDA -26.62%, AAPL -19.22%, MSFT -12.14%, GOOG -19.55%, AMZN -21.62%, Some big appearing numbers here and yet my entire portfolio with my two funds.....SP500 and Fidelity Contra Fund..... and nine stocks is only down by.....13.5%.....as a whole. My portfolio, as a whole, is holding up very nicely and limiting my losses....so far. AND......I love seeing all those big losses in the tech stocks above that I own. It means that those holdings some time over the rest of the year are......"likely".....to all make some really big gains from where they are right now. I believe I have HUGE upside in those stocks. If my portfolio can continue to do its job as a whole and hold my losses in a moderate range....I will be all set up for the later gains when those dirt cheap tech stocks make an INEVITABLE come-back. At that point I expect to be at an all time high. It is impossible to know when this will happen......but there is no doubt that it will happen.
.The hangover in the market at the moment swirls around the tariff stuff. Whether we like it, dislike it, agree or disagree....that is the fly in the ointment. My hope (which is not a plan by the way) is that we end up somewhere with the "porridge just right." The global economic machine is big. I won't belabor my opinions much further....unless I just need to vent.. One thing about it, it is going to play out right in front of us. There will be no shadows to sink back into, there will be no disowning the idea/plan, there will be nowhere to cast blame. Although, I think we are seeing some early signs of that already. Regardless, no tinkering or changes to my plan. Just keep on course and see it through.
In addition, we have a good place here with many diverse investors to share thoughts with. I certainly enjoy everyone’s posts and ideas about the market and other things. I think it helps all of us to be able to follow others progress and go through whatever this old crazy investing world throws at us.
You're a funny guy. If he shot someone point blank, he would blame the bullet. It can be (and will be) someone else's fault if it does not turn out as advertised. I'm going with Crooked Hillary™.
