When I got home and looked at one of my kids accounts....I saw that I have two stocks up right now....PLTR and WMT. On a positive note the losses were not anywhere near what I expected to see. The futures and early markets after the open this morning were a HUGE overreaction to......NOTHING.
MY total focus today in on the MSFT and META earnings.....even though I do not own META. We will see them in about an hour.
Also.....we are a very limited thread in terms of posting activity. We probably have somewhere in the neighborhood of about 10 or less active posters.....although they evolve and change over time At the same time this thread generates about 45,000 views a month and is closing in on total views of about 2,000,000.....TWO MILLION. We have been averaging over......ONE HALF MILLION....views a year on this thread.....recently We have a lot of people looking at this thread daily that never post and are presumably long term investors. That is who I am posting to daily......the little, unknown, long term investors that are the GUTS of the market. That is the PURPOSE of this thread.....to educate investors and others as to the POWER of long term investing and compounding. That is a BIG driver of what I choose to post on here. That was my purpose when I started this thread.....to create a long term record of a single long term investor......"me"..... and their results. That is why I committed to post all my trades.....for better or worse....on here when they happen. I want this thread to be an accurate record of what can and does happen to a long term investor over a time span that "I" consider "long term". "I" ALSO want this thread to serve as a beacon of HOPE for investors....especially long term investors.....as we go through and deal with all the short term DRAMA, NOISE, and CRAP. YES....it is possible to simply IGNORE IT ALL. We are now approaching that sort of time span. In October this thread will hit the SEVEN YEAR mark. To me that is the perfect holding time that I would describe as long term. That is why one of my two primary investing goals is to achieve an average return of 10% or more over my investing lifetime. This will double my money over......yes....SEVEN YEARS.
I am NOT much of a fan of the current FED....or much of any FED. They have been simply.....ok. BUT....they get little to no respect from me. One BIG reason for this is their constant blather and use of a 2% target for inflation. This number is FANTASY. I have posted previously on here regarding where and how this number came to be. The REAL range for normal inflation is about 2.8 to 4%. The fact that the FED......who should and do know better....continue to use and push this SHAM inflation target gives me REAL PAUSE and distrust of them and what their agenda is. HERE is what AI on GOOGL tells me about that target: "The 2% inflation target, widely adopted by central banks globally, originated from an off-the-cuff remark made by Roger Douglas, the Finance Minister of New Zealand, in a 1988 television interview.While not based on any academic study, the comment sparked public expectations and was later formalized by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.This initial target range was then expanded to 2% to allow for more flexibility in monetary policy. Elaboration: New Zealand's Origin: In the late 1980s, New Zealand, like many other developed countries, struggled with high inflation.During a TV interview, Roger Douglas, then Finance Minister, suggested bringing inflation down to a range of 0% to 1%. Formalization and Expansion: The comment, while not initially intended as a formal policy, became a catalyst for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to officially adopt an inflation target.The RBNZ, led by Governor Don Brash, expanded the target range to 2% to provide policymakers with more room for maneuver. Global Adoption: The 2% target gained traction and was adopted by other central banks, including those in Canada, the United Kingdom, and eventually the United States, which formally adopted it in 2012. Justification: The 2% target is often seen as a balance between the risks of low inflation (potentially leading to deflation) and high inflation (eroding purchasing power).It allows central banks to implement policies that support economic growth without risking significant price instability. No Strong Empirical Basis: While the 2% target has been widely adopted, it's important to note that there is no strong theoretical or empirical evidence that suggests it is the optimal level." MY COMMENT I have one question.....WHY THE "F"....are we using this FANTASY inflation number when we have decades and decades of REAL inflation data for the USA and our economy.....under different economic conditions We DO actually know what the real inflation level is that we usually see with a strong USA economy. YET....the FED chooses to IGNORE this REAL data and push the made up BS number. There is NO DOUBT...that all the smart economists and FED members.....assuming they are actually smart.......could go back and calculate the OPTIMAL INFLATION LEVEL from real world and real life USA economic historic data. As noted above: "it's important to note that there is no strong theoretical or empirical evidence that suggests it is the optimal level." My question is why has the optimal and normal inflation level NOT been calculated for the USA economy.....and....what is it.......and....why are we NOT using that number as our target?
OK....after all the CRAP SHOW we were subjected to today in the media....where do we end the day......with a GAIN. I managed to end today with a small gain. I did not beat the gain of the SP500 which was 0.15%....but I ended in the GREEN. AFTER all this BS today....the SP500 ended with seven GREEN days in a row. IN YOUR FACE......someone.....anyone.....whoever.....I dont know...but somebody.....the markets I guess and the MEDIA.
Here is another AI answer....to that question. That's what "it" says....for what it's worth...LOL The 2% inflation target is primarily chosen because it's considered a balance between preserving the purchasing power of money and preventing deflation, which can harm the economy. It's also believed to provide room for monetary policy to respond effectively to economic downturns without hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates. Here's a more detailed explanation: Balancing Inflation and Deflation: A 2% inflation rate is seen as low enough to maintain price stability and prevent the erosion of purchasing power due to rising prices, while also high enough to avoid deflation, where prices fall and can lead to decreased spending, investment, and potentially lower wages. Monetary Policy Flexibility: A 2% inflation target allows central banks to lower interest rates when necessary to stimulate the economy during downturns without hitting the zero lower bound, where interest rates cannot be lowered further. Anchoring Inflation Expectations: A clear inflation target helps businesses and consumers make long-term decisions, like saving, borrowing, and investing, as they can anticipate how prices will likely change. Practicality and History: The 2% target emerged from a time of high inflation and became a practical compromise for central banks trying to navigate a delicate balance between inflation and deflation, according to the Carolina Journal. International Standard: Many central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have adopted the 2% target, making it a widely recognized and accepted standard for monetary policy, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
STILL a made up fantasy number compared to the REAL number....that they never tell us or talk about. AND.....most of the above in my world....is simply BS justifying BS. But that is me.......and my very 'CLINICAL view of everything. LOL
I can't say that I am a staunch supporter or fan either regarding the FED. I complained during the high inflation period about all of their appearances and simply repeating the same thing over and over. I also complained about the 2% target and still think in a lot of ways it is silly to marry yourself to a static target, but I suppose they have to land somewhere and lo and behold that is the number we have had for quite some time. To a degree, I suppose in fairness I should give them a bit of credit for navigating through some of the previous stuff. We ended up coming out the other side, when it seemed it would be worse. They were patient and kept their message the same throughout "most" of it, even though there were times I might not have agreed with it. I figured they would "break" some things in the process then. At present day, they are in a bit of a pickle. The immense pressure they are about to receive from the administration is going to continue to mount. The tariff result is unknown right now. It could turn out a number of different ways. When the FED says they are in a holding pattern right now because of it, I tend to believe it for the most part. At some point, they will have to move one way or another....what causes that is the real question. If inflation turns and begins to go up as a result, they may have to return to raising. It may just be temporary after things settle in and they may be able to wait and see. If nothing happens, they will likely be able to continue with the reductions. What a spot to be in. It could be quite the tightrope to walk. With any scenario, too soon, too late, too early....the timing will be tricky with all of this other stuff going on. Without the tariff stuff going on, I figure/guess they would have been successful in seeing it through. Right now, I'm not too sure they will be able to deliver with this factored in.
I wonder why BUSINESS does not use made up GOALS and numbers....instead of their REAL results...it would allow them to manage their business with a cushion and manage their long term financial decisions...etc, etc, etc. Only economists and government can get away with this sort of BS. NOW as to MSFT.....a BIG BEAT.......using ACTUAL REAL numbers. Microsoft shares jump on earnings, revenue beat as Azure cloud business grows 33% https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/microsoft-msft-q3-earnings-report-2025.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results on the top and bottom lines. The company’s Azure cloud business exceeded analysts’ estimates. Wall Street will be focused on the company’s upcoming earnings call for a sense of how President Trump’s tariffs are impacting the business. Microsoft shares rose more than 6% in extended trading on Wednesday after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results driven by its Azure cloud business. Here’s how the company performed in comparison with LSEG consensus: Earnings per share: $3.46 vs. $3.22 expected Revenue: $70.07 billion vs. $68.42 billion expected Microsoft’s revenue grew 13% year over year in the quarter, which ended on March 31, according to a statement. Net income climbed 18% to $25.8 billion from $21.9 billion, or $2.94 per share, a year earlier. While earnings and revenue topped estimates, those results are backward looking. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs were announced in early April, and investors will be focused on commentary on the upcoming earnings call for a sense of their likely impact on results this quarter and for the rest of the year. Microsoft continued to invest heavily in infrastructure to support artificial intelligence workloads during the quarter. Capital expenditures for the quarter, excluding finance leases, reached $16.75 billion, up nearly 53%. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $16.37 billion. The company’s Productivity and Business Processes segment, which contains Office software subscriptions and LinkedIn, contributed $29.94 billion in revenue. The total was up 10% but above the $29.57 billion consensus among analysts polled by StreetAccount. Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud unit that includes the Azure cloud produced $26.75 billion in revenue, up around 21% and more than StreetAccount’s consensus of $26.16 billion. The company’s Azure revenue grew 33%, with 16 points of the growth associated with AI. Analysts polled by StreetAccount and CNBC had anticipated 30.3% and 29.7% Azure growth, respectively. Revenue from the More Personal Computing unit, containing Windows, search advertising, devices and video game consoles, came to $13.37 billion. The figure was up 6% and higher than StreetAccount’s $12.66 billion consensus. Microsoft said sales of devices and of Windows operating licenses to device makers increased 3%. Technology industry researcher Gartner estimated that PC shipments went up 4.8% in the quarter. During the quarter, which ended on March 31, Microsoft announced an adjustment to its relationship with key AI partner OpenAI. The company said it would have a right of first refusal when OpenAI wants new computing capacity, but won’t always have to deliver it. On the same day, OpenAI announced the Stargate AI infrastructure project alongside Oracle and SoftBank at the White House. Microsoft said it had $623 million in “other expense” during the quarter. The sum includes recognized losses on equity method investments, including OpenAI. The figure was $2.29 billion in the prior quarter. As of Wednesday’s close, Microsoft shares were down 7% for the year, while the S&P 500 index was down about 6%. Executives will issue guidance and discuss the results on a call with analysts starting at 5. MY COMMENT A HUGE BEAT.....nothing more nothing less......and using REAL numbers. Of course the writer could not resist what we would ALL predict would be said....."those results are backward looking". We....investors....have endured weeks of fear mongering of the coming earnings.......now they are actually here and it is all simply BS as usual. I LOVE it.....talk about soap operas and performance art......we live it every day in the markets.
I dont blame you Smokie....I blame the FED. They are paid to be accurate for the good of the USA and our economy. They BASK in the prestige of their titles. YET in the end they are just......WINGING it...even with their inflation goal. I would trust the FED more if they told us the REAL historic number and than said they operate with a range around that number. Of course....we ALL know that already. Sorry....... not sniping at you SMOKIE......just something that hit me today about the FED today.....carry on.
I was also thinking......LORI? Are you ok? Still hanging in there with your investments? We have not heard from you in 3-4 weeks. Is your company ok in the current turmoil? I hope you are doing ok....I value ALL our out of the USA posters on here.
As to META which I do not own. Meta beats Q1 earnings estimates, offers strong Q2 outlook despite fears of tariff-influenced ad slowdown https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta...-tariff-influenced-ad-slowdown-201326483.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Social media giant Meta (META) reported its first quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, beating on the top and bottom lines. But the company also raised its full-year capital expenditure estimates to between $64 billion to $72 billion, up from $60 billion to $65 billion. Despite fears of an advertising slowdown amid tariff uncertainty, Meta says it anticipates Q2 revenue of between $42.5 billion and $45.5 billion, ahead of Wall Street's expectations of $44 billion. For the quarter, Meta reported earnings per share (EPS) of $6.43 on revenue of $42.3 billion. Wall Street was expecting EPS of $5.25 on revenue of $41.3 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. The company saw EPS of $4.71 on revenue of $36.4 billion in Q1 2024. Advertising revenue topped out at $41.39 billion versus expectations of $40.5 billion, while Meta's Reality Labs segment saw an operating loss of $4.21 billion. Meta stock was up more than 4% in after-hours trading following the announcement. Meta's stock price is down more than 7% since the start of the year but has gained more than 25% in the past 12 months. “We attribute weakness to [Meta’s] greater exposure to advertising (no cloud business for [Meta]) and China-based advertisers (>10% exposure for [Meta]) who have reportedly pulled back on ad spend,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thill wrote in an investor note ahead of Meta's earnings announcement. Meta’s earnings come as the company is battling the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in court over claims the social media company holds an illegal monopoly over the “personal social networking.” The FTC is looking to force Meta to sell off both Instagram and WhatsApp as a remedy. The commission claims Meta originally purchased the apps as part of a "buy-or-bury" campaign to fight off potential competitors. According to the Wall Street Journal, CEO Mark Zuckerberg offered to settle with the FTC for $450 million. The commission, however, asked for $30 billion. Zuckerberg eventually raised his offer to $1 billion, but the FTC would only go as low as $18 billion. Zuckerberg has met with President Trump several times over recent months as he seeks to develop a closer relationship with the president. For instance, the CEO attended Trump's inauguration in January, and Meta donated $1 million to Trump’s inauguration fund. Also in January, the Wall Street Journal reported that Meta had reached a $25 million settlement with Trump related to the company’s decision to ban him from its platforms following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. MY COMMENT YES.....another HUGE beat......and.....a big guidance BOOST to go with it. CLARITY is starting to happen.....if people and the markets choose to see it.
Exactly. We (as a nation) are not a victim. It just makes for good politics and brainwashing. Everyone needs a good enemy. Better it be people in other countries than those in ours causing the real pain.
One thing that is often overlooked is that the US played a very influential role in the WTO. We have had trade policy for a very long time and have addressed numerous cases over the years, quite successfully, in that arena. There is a process for this. Spanking everyone with tariffs is just odd to me. Especially, trying to navigate such a huge number of countries at once. I am moderately convinced that this group does not understand how tariffs truly work. And I do not make that statement with political bias. When I listen to the explanations and comments, it is just so backwards. It defies any logic and common sense.
Looks like the FUTURES are having a great reaction to the earnings today. No the issue is....will it carry over to the real numbers in the markets tomorrow. I guess we will find about in about 8.5 hours.
AND....as I said....CLARITY is coming. Microsoft passes its first test on U.S. tariffs with limited product exposure https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/mic...test-on-us-tariffs-with-limited-exposure.html U.S. and Ukraine sign economic deal that includes terms for natural resources in the war-torn country https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/us-...atural-resources-in-the-war-torn-country.html As a long term investor........I think I can wait the 6-12 months that it is going to take to get all the current issues out of the way.....especially since what is going to happen will in all PROBABILITY greatly BENEFIT the country and investors. AND....I expect that we will see good to great markets as I wait. The turn-around today and the earnings that are coming in....are giving me a pretty good idea of where we are heading in the medium term.....2-6 months......and I am looking forward to it. The SP500 as of the close today has trimmed it's losses YTD to (-5.31%).....the average is also UP over the past seven of seven days. We continue to slowly move away from the LOW achieved on April 7, 2025. We are even seeing some stocks like PLTR....within easy striking range of their all time high. GLORIOUS.
All good here thanks, W. Just watching all the short-term drama unfold and doing nothing as usual. This is actually really easy. Turns out the tariff situation isn’t going to hit my company nearly as hard as we thought. Our products are super niche, and the only real competition we’ve got are cheap knock-off versions from China - which our customers hate! The only real downside is that our American customers will now have to pay more for our parts than everyone else. It appears they don't have any other option. Anyway, the markets are looking pretty good today from where I'm sitting!
