The Long Term Investor

If you want a TECHNICAL bear market view of the future....here you go.

Bear market Is coming with S&P 500 rally stalling soon, DeMark says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-market-coming-p-500-151657202.html

 

Good old PLTR....currently at $123.33.....only $2 away from a 52 week HIGH. I love it....thank you ZUKODANY.

BUT....this is a very aggressive stock and not for everyone.....so PLEASE.....I am not recommending it to anyone. Do your own analysis.

 

And.....GASP....for those that want to talk tariffs.....here is plenty of ammunition for both sides. As for me...I will bow out of that discussion. BUT....I will foster it and enable the discussion with this post.

Trump's April tariff revenue topped $17 billion. That dwarfs any haul from his first term.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trum...s-any-haul-from-his-first-term-160856118.html

 

HERE is the markets today...to wrap up this little FLURRY of posts.

Dow jumps 500 points on solid jobs report, S&P 500 heads for longest winning streak in 20 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks rose on Friday as Wall Street digested a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for April, which eased recession fears and put the S&P 500 on pace for its longest winning streak in just over two decades.

The S&P 500 advanced 1.6%, a move that placed the broad market index on track for its ninth consecutive day of gains. If the index closes higher, that would mark its longest winning streak since November 2004. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 575 points, or 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7%. With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 has now recovered its losses since April 2, when President Donald Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs. This comes a day after the tech-heavy Nasdaq accomplished the same feat.

Payrolls grew by 177,000 in April, above the 133,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated. That figure is still down sharply from the 228,000 added in March but much better than feared after recession worries grew last month. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, in line with expectations.

“Markets breathed a sigh of relief this morning as the jobs data came in better than expected,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “While recession fears are still simmering on the back burner, the buy-the-dip dynamic can continue – at least until the tariff pause runs out.”

Investors were already upbeat prior to the strong jobs report after China said that it is evaluating the possibility of starting trade negotiations with the U.S. Still, Chinese authorities reaffirmed their belief that the U.S. should remove all unilateral tariffs, saying in a statement that “if the U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs.” Later in the day, a report from The Wall Street Journal suggested that Beijing is open to trade talks.

The Street was also mulling over earnings reports from two “Magnificent Seven” members. Apple slid 3% after posting fiscal second-quarter revenue from its services division that fell short against analyst estimates. Additionally, the iPhone maker said it expects to add $900 million in costs in the current quarter due to tariffs. Amazon shares, meanwhile, rose 1% after its first-quarter results came in better than expected. However, the company issued light guidance, highlighting “tariffs and trade policies” as factors.

“We’ve already seen how financial markets will react if the administration moves forward with their initial tariff plan, so unless they take a different tack in July when the 90-day pause expires, we will see market action similar to the first week of April,” Zaccarelli also said.

Stocks have made an incredible comeback since Trump announced last month that’s he’s temporarily reducing his new tariff rates for most countries to 10% for 90 days. The market has especially picked up steam lately, leading to the winning streak, as solid earnings have come out. Thus far, all three major averages are on pace for their second winning week in a row. The S&P 500 is on pace to rise 2.3% this week, while the Dow is on track for a 2.5% advance. The Nasdaq is up 2.7% week to date.

China reportedly signals willingness to negotiate with U.S. on trade

China is thinking about ways to address the White House’s concerns about the role plays in the fentanyl crisis, raising hopes for trade discussions between the two countries to start up, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The report, which cited people familiar with the matter, said that Wang Xiaohong, the security czar to Chinese President Xi Jinping, has been looking into what the Trump administration would want the country to do regarding its production of chemical ingredients that are used to make fentanyl.

The sources said Beijing could send a senior official to the U.S. to meet with senior officials from within the Trump administration, or meet with them in a third country. However, they also cautioned that discussions are still fluid.

S&P 500′s test of resistance levels will be in focus

How the S&P 500 does over the near term will be significant as it starts to test resistance, according to Wolfe Research.

The broader index has closed the post-April 2 gap, and could break out if it’s able to consolidate above 5,500, according to the firm’s technical analyst Rob Ginsberg. It closed Thursday at 5,604.14.

But, the technical analyst worries a reversal is in store if the recent advance fails to hold, citing bearish signals in high yield spreads and investment grade credit default swaps that could put a damper on the equity rally.

“How stocks respond in the next week or two would be telling,” Ginsberg wrote Thursday. “A shallow consolidation that holds and builds above 5500 and odds would favor another acceleration higher, but if we fail to hold, we could see a quick reversal back into shorterterm support around 5200.”

The support level is about 7% below Thursday’s close.

Berkshire Hathaway hits record high ahead of annual meeting

Berkshire Hathaway shares hit a record high Friday just as Warren Buffett is about to kick off Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting on Saturday.

Tens of thousands of rapt shareholders will descend on Omaha, Nebraska this weekend for the annual gathering dubbed “Woodstock for Capitalists.” This year’s meeting marks the 60th anniversary of Buffett leading the company, and the 94-year-old investment legend is expected to opine on a wide range of market-moving topics, including tariffs, the state of the economy and his stock portfolio.

Class A shares climbed 1.5% Friday to a new all-time intraday high of 808, 993.53. Record closing level to watch is $806, 684 from April 2. The stock has rallied more than 18% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.

Traders now see next rate cut not coming until July

The better-than-expected jobs report for April has pushed out market expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut.

Following the 177,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, traders in the fed funds futures market took a June cut off the table and now see the central bank’s next move coming in July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

For the year, pricing now is split between a total three or four cuts, assuming quarter percentage point increments.

“A more severe response to the tariff and DOGE shocks may well emerge over the next few months, but the absence of an early start to labor market deterioration makes it less likely that the Fed will have seen enough to cut rates in June,” wrote Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI."

MY COMMENT

An exceptional market day today...and an EPIC run up in the SP500 recently. I am riding the wave.....regardless of whether it takes me forward or backward....short term.

 

OK....I think that is TEN good days for me in a row. I ended nicely in the GREEN today. I had only two stocks in the RED....AAPL and AMZN. I doubt they will be there long. I also beat the SP500 today by....0.20%.

CONTINUING to move on up....but not back to even YTD yet.

 

Another great week for ACTUAL investors. Here is the week that was.

DOW year to date (2.88%)
DOW five days +3.00%

SP500 year to date (-3.31%)
SP500 five days +2.92%

NASDAQ 100 year to date (-4.38%)
NASDAQ 100 five days +3.44%

NASDAQ year to date (-6.90%)
NASDAQ five days +3.42%

RUSSELL year to date (-9.28%)
RUSSELL five days +3.24%

A KILLER WEEK for me and the markets. If we can do this one more time next week I might be closing on 0.00% YTD. As it is....as of the close today I am at year to date for my entire account of......(-5.17%). Last week at this time I was at.....(-8.22%).

 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

 

Monday will be another big earnings day. PLTR will report on Monday....after the bell. A good report will likely kick the stock up above it's 52 week high of $125.41. The stock closed today at.....$124.28.

I guess the April 2 market FREAK-OUT is over for this company now that it has retraced all the losses.

YES....one of my nine stocks.

 

I hate stock buybacks. I dont think they benefit shareholders at all. If you want to give out money....give it to shareholders as a dividend or a special dividend. BUT....

Your Tariff-Free April Mailbag
Fancy a respite from the storm? We have you covered.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/your-tarifffree-april-mailbag

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Tariffs are understandably hogging headlines this month, but there are other things going on. Although we had to sift through quite a few queries on tariffs, we found a few yielding fresh topics to hit. Here we go!

Do stock buybacks affect markets?

Yes and no? Stocks move on supply and demand. Stock buybacks, where a company buys its shares and takes them off the market, theoretically reduce supply. They can also raise earnings per share, thus rewarding shareholders. So, all else equal and on paper, stock buybacks are bullish.

But reality, as always, is more complicated. Buybacks are just one factor affecting supply. There are others, and demand matters, too. They may not even reduce supply if they merely offset secondary issuances, like employee stock awards. A lot of times, buybacks merely “sterilize” new issuance, if you will pardon the jargon. Or, other negative (or less bullish) fundamental factors might matter more to pricing, lowering demand even as supply shrinks. So buybacks are a factor, but not the factor.

S&P produces an index tracking the 100 S&P 500 stocks with the highest buybacks. It is an equal-weighted index, so best to compare it to the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500. The buyback index’s trailing 10-year annualized return is a bit ahead, but we wouldn’t read into that. Its sector composition differs wildly, so you can’t definitively say buybacks are the swing factor driving higher returns. To us, the difference is an interesting observation, little more.

You often say stocks move on economic, political and sentiment drivers. Do any of these three matter more than the others?

Not in our view—they all work together. Political factors (regulatory changes and whatnot) affect economic results, and sentiment helps us gauge how much the good or bad on both fronts are priced in to markets. You can’t really isolate any one.

Here is an example. Let us say Congress is mulling a tax or regulatory change that would affect the long-term profitability of a business endeavor you are considering launching. You don’t know what they are going to do, but you do know that if they pass this thing, you will have to do things differently than you would under the status quo. So, with this regulatory uncertainty looming over you, you wait. The economy doesn’t get your investment. And you are a little frustrated that no one notices this is happening.

Here we have a political factor carrying direct economic implications that people broadly don’t see—multiply that across thousands upon thousands of businesses, and you get a recession that stocks aren’t braced for and have to price in. All three drivers worked in concert.

Or, how about this. You are still a small business owner. Congress is raising your taxes, yuck. But you notice that this has hit sentiment hard, making everyone fearful of recession, and interest rates dropped. You have been thinking for a long time about opening a second location. The higher tax rate won’t wipe out your profits, and now you can borrow really cheaply to make it all happen. So you go for it, the economy gets your investment, and you are giddy that you knew something those silly headlines didn’t.

Here, we have a political factor whose alleged economic implications were overblown, secretly paving the way for you to do some economic stimulus. Multiply this across thousands upon thousands of businesses, and you get a boom that stocks then have to price in … in a good way. All three drivers again working together.

As with a lot of things in investing, it is the totality of these three drivers that matters. Which makes it kind of fun for us, thinking through how all the cogs in the machine affect one another.

You are quite bullish on Europe, which has lagged for years. What do you see the region doing differently now?

Nothing much—it is more about how sentiment toward the region has evolved, in keeping with our prior question. Yes, earnings are expected to improve and firms’ and consumers’ balance sheets in Europe are healthy. Eurozone economies are still grinding along, their politics are still gridlocked, and the major systemic questions arising from last decade’s debt crisis haven’t resolved. However, sentiment is key. It got too low there, to a point where just-ok or not-as-bad-as-feared results can deliver big positive surprise. Even much-maligned Germany, the region’s proverbial “sick man,” enjoyed soaring stock markets before this spring’s correction.

In our view, this is kind of the ideal backdrop. If eurozone nations were launching massive economic reform initiatives, increasing competitiveness and cutting red tape—or launching big public investment campaigns—then sentiment could heat up, creating room for disappointment when things didn’t go as well as feared. Similarly, if economic growth rates were red hot, and everyone noticed and penciled in more of the same, expectations would be hard to beat. Fast growth would get priced in, and the region might underperform. Unloved for no good reason is often a sweet spot.

Do you watch the news and just roll your eyes?

On the rare occasion we watch it rather than read it, yes, but not constantly, and maybe not for the reasons you think. We have largely priced in the heightened rhetoric, bad fashion, heavy-handed makeup and ideological/partisan bias. These things have always been present, even if society misremembers the mid 20th century as some objective golden age. We also enjoy a good local human-interest story as much as the next guy or gal. Some of us have vivid memories of being so excited when our grade school catapult contest made the local evening news, and we still remember when the 10 PM anchor was that good-natured cut-up in the back of the classroom in fifth grade.

We save our eye-rolling for something specific, and it is universal across all financial and economic coverage—print, television, radio, podcasts, social media. That is: The chronic acceptance and portrayal of theory as fact. Friends, all of the following are theories or suppositions:

• High interest rates hurt economic growth, while low interest rates help it.
• Tax cuts fuel inflation.
• Low unemployment causes higher inflation because it raises wages.
• People spend less when the stock market is falling.
• High gas prices will hurt consumer spending.
• High budget deficits hurt the economy.

We could go on, but you get the drift. Over and over again, news coverage of markets or the economy will say things like this offhand, stating them as fact. These statements often aren’t the focal point, but part of the explanation of why A will allegedly cause B and therefore be good or bad for the economy and markets. The problem is, none of these things are actually fact. They are suppositions, claims, opinions, theories—and all easy to test against data. But few actually do. Our fearless founder and Executive Chairman, Ken Fisher, wrote a whole book about that nearly 20 years ago.

Called The Only Three Questions That Count, it handily gives us a silver lining to all the eye rolling. Because people don’t think to test these claims or the assumptions they support, there is an advantage for those who take the time to do so. They might find a spot where everyone is wrong, and there may be investment opportunities in positioning portfolios for that. We highly recommend giving this questioning a try. Like us, you might find it is actual fun."

MY COMMENT

Just a little weekend article. I like the list of.....unproven.....theories and their rampant use in the opinion media as FACT.

 

Interesting:

The stock market comes all the way back — and then some

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...nd-then-some-chart-of-the-week-110010271.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The US stock market is back.......

......... At its lows, the index was down over 19% from record highs reached in February.

........But just a month later, the index has made it all back. And then some.

.......Through the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% from its closing level reached on April 2,

...........investor confidence has grown that the highest level of uncertainty around Trump's tariff plans has passed. Positive earnings from some of the market's key Big Tech bellwethers have also helped steady the market ship.

.........overall action reveals a market reacting to, and making peace with, a new tariff regime."

MY COMMENT

I have edited out content that I believe is political. The above is the GUTS of the article. If you wish to read the whole thing....feel free to click the link.

BUT YES......the FACT is the markets have now completely recovered ALL the post April 2 losses....believe it or not. That did not take long.....about one month....round trip.

I am sure there are many that freaked out and sold out of the markets. A HUGE mistake....especially if you claim to be a long term investor. No doubt anyone that did this is probably sitting in cash and trying to figure out what just happened and when to get back in. This is the MASSIVE problem with trying to time the markets.

 

As investors.....we have just witnessed and lived through one of the most EPIC media frenzies in a long time. AND....I am talking about the financial media.....I dont even watch the "regular media" anymore. I do a lot of reading instead.....and educate myself.

NOW....where do we go from here? Who knows. No doubt the short term will continue to be CRAZY. So I will hide out in the long term and "hope" that the short term insanity does not slowly infect and corrupt the long term.

 

Time for some FANTASY.....IMAGINE if you had PERFECT timing:

Company-YTD low-Last Closing Price (5-2):

WMT - $81 (4-8) - $99

PLTR - $74 (4-4) - $124

HD - $335 (4-8) - $364

NVDA - $94 (4-4) - $115

COST - $890 (3-15) - $1008

MSFT - $354 (4-8) - $435

GOOGL - $144 (4-8) - $164

AAPL - $172 (4-8) - $205

AMZN - $167 (4-21) - $190

As I said.....TOTAL FANTASY....but I can dream.

 

The best I could do regarding the above as a long term investor is.....sit and ride those stocks down to those YTD lows......and....than continue to sit and do nothing to get back to the current price.

I am sure it was a very white-knuckle ride for some people.

Even as a very experienced long time....fully invested all the time investor....during a vicious drop like we just had....I am thinking, WOW.....how low are we going to go. I dont ever panic anymore or get too emotional....but...emotions NEVER completely go away for any investor. You just have to learn to TRUST your plan and CONTROL the emotions.

 

Here is why I dont like them....from the article above:

"They may not even reduce supply if they merely offset secondary issuances, like employee stock awards. A lot of times, buybacks merely “sterilize” new issuance,..."

AND

"Criticism of Stock Buybacks

As share repurchases have become more prevalent, they have drawn notable criticism from various stakeholders, including investors, financial analysts, and policymakers. To better understand these concerns, we can categorize them into two main groups: intra-market and extra-market effects.

Intra-market critiques focus on the potential drawbacks of share buybacks within the context of financial markets and corporate performance. Here are some of the problems suggested:

1. Short-term focus: Buybacks encourage a short-term mindset among executives, prioritizing immediate boosts to stock prices over long-term investments in research and development, as well as sustainable growth.
2. Masking underperformance/market: It's too easy for companies to use buybacks to artificially inflate EPS, potentially to conceal underlying weaknesses in their financial performance or business model.8
3. Misallocating resources: The funds used for buybacks could be better invested in capital expenditures, employee training, or other initiatives that contribute to the company's long-term competitiveness, not the relative price of shares. This can lead to underinvestment in critical areas that would otherwise fuel future growth and stability. A 2020 Harvard Business Review article reviewed then-recent data showing S&P 500 companies that bought back stocks but put zero capital into research and development.9
4. Insider enrichment: Linking the above concerns is a worry that, since buybacks disproportionately benefit executives and insiders who hold large amounts of company stock, decisions about buybacks don't prioritize the needs of the company and its shareholders.10"

AND

"Extra-market critiques move beyond the financial implications for immediate stakeholders and consider their broader societal and economic consequences. Here is some of what is argued:

1. 
   
   
   • Market manipulation: Concerns about creating fraudulent valuations are also intra-market since buybacks, it's suggested, can mislead investors about a company's true financial health and help create asset bubbles. This is the reason for their ban until 1982. Buybacks can also be seen as lending credence to the belief that the market is a rigged game for insiders.
   • Wealth inequality: Buybacks may exacerbate wealth disparities, as they tend to benefit wealthier individuals who own the majority of corporate stock while providing limited benefits to workers and the broader economy. There's also the opportunity cost: when a company spends on stock buybacks, it's not hiring more workers. This tamps down demand for labor and can be a factor in flattening wages.
   • Economic efficiency: Behind much of the debate is that buybacks are economically inefficient, not just because they steer money away from potential areas of business growth. There's also a sense that stock buybacks are part of the financialization of the U.S. economy, helping to change how we understand what corporations are for. The focus of companies should be on finding productive uses for capital—they should make things or provide services people need—and supply steady employment. It's hard to see how buybacks accomplish any of these.11
   • The role of private equity: Private equity firms, it's argued, use share buybacks to generate returns after acquiring a company. By employing the acquired company's cash or taking on additional debt to repurchase shares, private equity firms can increase their ownership stake and potentially boost the company's stock price.12 However, this approach can leave the company vulnerable to economic downturns and with fewer resources for long-term investments.13"

Are Stock Buybacks a Good Thing, or Not?
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/121415/stock-buybacks-good-thing-or-not.asp

Lots of information on buy-backs in the article above.

personally I would rather see them use that money for either dividends to shareholders.....or Capital expenditures to grow the business....new investment in capital assets, buying other companies, etc, etc. Basically I would rather see them invest in the CAPITAL ASSETS and CAPITAL side of the company rather than prop up the share price.

The KEY reason that I dont like them as said above:

"...worry that, since buybacks disproportionately benefit executives and insiders who hold large amounts of company stock, decisions about buybacks don't prioritize the needs of the company and its shareholders..."

I think they can also be used to drive EXECUTIVE performance bonuses.

 

The WHEEL TURNS........and......"The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line, Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it".

End of an era: Warren Buffett will ask Berkshire board to replace him as CEO with Greg Abel

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/03/war...el-ceo-of-berkshire-hathaway-at-year-end.html

WELL DONE Warren........."the meeting ended with a standing ovation for Buffett".

 

More good news for further rate cuts and inflation.

OPEC+ agrees to another accelerated oil output hike for June

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/03/ope...ted-oil-output-hike-for-june-sources-say.html

"OPEC+ has agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day, the group said on Saturday, despite falling prices and expectations of weaker demand."

 

Smokie....you post anything you want. (not that it is up to me anyway) You are always respectful of others on here and a good person.

You know some day I am going to give up regularly posting on this thread.....or....age might force me to...although I have ZERO health issues right now. I have often thought that YOU along with one or two others might end up being the ones to continue this thread at that time for the benefit of long term investors and new investors starting to learn. Or....perhaps a joint effort of you and ALL the current bunch of posters.......we have a small but good group. Your long term investing commentary is always....spot on.

You and I are.....ALL GOOD.

 

You know....I just happened to look at a five year chart for NIKE.....shockingly horrible. They used to be an iconic company and no-brainier as a holding for anyone. What a shame and what a management disaster.