I will be DONE with earnings tomorrow. COSTCO reports after the bell....my final report for the first quarter. It has been a very good earnings quarter for my stocks....now lets do it again in another 1.5 months.
As i do my bills every month on the 28th....I also run the figures on my annual BUDGET to see if I am on or off track. Right now I am spot on....with the budget and my cash flow that will happen over the rest of the year. I also look at each of the six accounts that I manage for myself and family. My current long term annual average return.....in my siblings account is......+16.43%. This is for the time span of.....December 31, 2016......to....May 27, 2025. A span of.....NINE years. For some reason this is the "MAX" time period that Schwab will provide performance data for. Over the same time the annual average return for the SP500 is.......+14.21%. I am very pleased to be beating the SP500 by......+2.22%......annually for the past NINE years in my siblings account. A very difficult thing to do as a long term investor. In "MY" primary brokerage account.....I have an annual average return of......+26.28%....from June 21 of 2018 to May 27 of 2025.......SEVEN YEARS basically. The SP500 over that 7 years......+13.46%. In my primary account I am very pleased to be beating the SP500 by.....+12.82%....for SEVEN YEARS. A nearly IMPOSSIBLE thing to do as a long term investor. For "MY" account I dont have data further back.....but I have no doubt that I am beating the SP500 for the past 25-30 years by a nice amount.
TireSmoke with his extremely aggressive portfolio is probably....OFF THE CHARTS....compared to the SP500 over the past seven years.
Nice NVDA holders….and a good earnings as mentioned. With a good NVDA earnings and the bulk of tariffs being blocked might just be in for a booming day tomorrow Futures up nicely as a result, but who knows come tomorrow.
Ok....more data....and probably much more relevant to this thread. I started posting on here on October 2, 2018. So it has been SIX YEARS and EIGHT MONTHS. Just shy of seven years. Schwab tells me that my primary account over that SIX YEARS and EIGHT MONTHS has an average annual return of....+25.96%. Over the same time span the SP500 has an average annual return of.....+13.04%. NOW.....six years and eight months is a good example of a long term investing time span. SO with.....all the various market events, disasters, bull and bear markets, and investing adventures reflected in this thread over the last SIX YEARS and EIGHT MONTHS......resulted in an annual average return for "ME" of.....+25.96%. PLUS....a BEATING of the SP500 by an average annual return of.....+12.92%. So this thread is NOW a perfect....REAL LIFE and REAL TIME example......of the POWER OF LONG TERM INVESTING.....and.....a HUGE beat of the SP500. I am totally amazed to have such a HUGE beat of the SP500 over such a span of years. Unfortunately that return is now.....HINDSIGHT.....and you know what they say about past returns and future results. If I remember I will calculate my return at the SEVEN YEAR mark for this thread.
As we finish up earnings here is where we stand. Key Data • Earnings Results: 78% of S&P 500 reported a positive EPS surprise.....63% of S&P 500 companies had a positive revenue surprise. (with 98% reporting to date) • Growth: For Q1 2025, arnings growth rate...year over year...... is 12.9% (SP500). The second-straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth in the SP500 year over year. • Guidance: 47 companies issued negative EPS guidance.....40 companies issued positive EPS guidance (SP500). • PE: The forward 12-month P/E is 21.1. Above both the 5-year and ten year average. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_052325.pdf MY COMMENT YES......yet another great earnings report in just about in the can.
We start the day with gains in the SP500 and the NASDAQ. BUT....considering the great NVDA earnings yesterday and all the other positive market news.....I dont see the gains today as where they should be. Considering how we are opening....with less gain that I believe should be....I see a significant possibility of RED by the close. I see ALL the averages backing off from their opening gains and backtracking.
As to the above....the short term markets have a significant ability over the past few years to DISRESPECT and IGNORE great earnings and other financial news. The question is......will the "stuff" being ignored....make an impact longer term? Or.....will it be simply lost to investors? In the short term there is no doubt that the markets are often disconnected from REALITY.....now we need to see if this will INFECT the long term.
As usual the economic data continues to come in on the positive side for FED CUTS. BUT.....the FED sits MUTE and PASSIVE....in the face of constant economic news and data that justifies another rate cut. I would not be surprised if the FED does ZERO cuts this year. They are playing a little passive-aggressive game.....being a little too cute and coy. In fact.......they, the FED....are probably the primary risk to the economy right now in my view. Combine this with the FEDS almost total disregard of the most massive stimulus in USA history over the past four or so years....and....I have ZERO respect or expectations for the current FED. More Americans file for jobless aid but layoffs remain low despite economic uncertainty over tariffs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-americans-file-jobless-aid-124042709.html
Having just finished scanning all my normal materials and sites.....there is actually NOTHING going on today. SO...time to just sit and wait for the markets to stew and mature into the day. I have no expectations for the close or the markets today. I think a lot of people......based on the futures yesterday......thought we would see a BOOM in the markets today....I have no doubt it is NOT going to happen. My primary interest as an investor today is the COST earnings that I will get after the close. My final stock to report.
Here is the market today if you are interested. S&P 500 rises on the back of Nvidia’s gain, but overall rally is muted because of trade policy confusion https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/28/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
I have a nice GAIN in my account right now.....but...most of it is due to NVDA. The REALITY is I have more stocks in the RED right now than GREEN. I am in the RED with: WMT GOOGL HD PLTR COST I did buy one share of PLTR and one share of NVDA at the open....under my current program of buying one share of each....each month when I pay my bills. I got a good deal on the PLTR.....but...not so much on NVDA. BUT....I dont care....I am not a market timer.....time will be my friend.
Good news for PLTR a few days ago. Palantir gets great news from the Pentagon Bringing AI to defense technology is proving to be an excellent business model https://www.thestreet.com/technology/palantir-gets-great-news-from-the-pentagon "The Pentagon has revealed that it will significantly increase the budget for Palantir’s Maven Smart System to $1.3 billion over the next four years, an increase of roughly $795 million."
Yeah, I thought we might get a better day out of it since the market has been so news driven here lately. Although, NVDA appears to still be having a nice day so far. The daily markets are finicky at times for sure. The good thing for long term investors is that one day is nothing in the long haul. There really is nothing more insignificant than the noise and the markets happenings in one day. We take what it gives us and simply move on. I actually think a vast majority of long term investors rarely even notice most of the daily, weekly, or even month to month stuff. Most of the young investors I personally know actually only check their portfolios a handful of times a year. Mostly to make sure everything is in order such as contributions and checking for security purposes. They do not follow daily stock fluctuations or what the market even does during the week. They are going to be far more successful than a lot of their peers in the long run. They are far too busy with their work and life....which is a very good thing.
I have had a very good run. My brokerage had change from Scottrade to Ameritrade to Schwab so I'd really have to dig to figure out my annualized average return but I do know it's much much higher than the S&P500. My account really grew legs starting around 2016 with my large position of AMD. I had some earlier wins prior to that like with MO but nothing ground breaking. Good fortune is often the outcome of being well-prepared and ready to seize opportunities. Seeing the potential of both AMD and later NVDA along with some luck and fait was the real driver of my portfolio. The addition of PLTR falls along those lines as well. Companies that dominate their market (large moat), excellent leadership and clear guidance. In hindsight I should have moved from majority holding of AMD to NVDA sooner but I had trouble grasping thad NVDA was transitioned into a chip company and no longer a graphics card dominated business. I still did extremely well on both companies. Let's see if NVDA can grow some legs and move me up enough to clinch the coveted Stockaholics Long Term Investor Best Return of the Year Award again this year...
We have seen the above charts before in our little thread. Very simple and easy. As an investor, you are going to have some wonderful times if you can stick with it. You are going to have some not so great times at some point in your journey. Get used to it. Acknowledge it. Know it. Then, get on with your plan and set it in motion to achieve your financial goals/retirement. If one cannot get their mind right about that, then you probably aren't ready for long term investing yet.
Just a WIMPY day in the markets today....again. NVDA is up by $4.18....which is not any more than any other good day....so little to nothing out of the ordinary happening due to earnings. Most or the other TECH names are either RED.....or just hanging on to slight gains. The general markets are just slightly green. BASICALLY....a wasted market day when perhaps the markets are just confused and/or consolidating. Certainly NOTHING happening with any excitement.
