The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The market by the close today:

    How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 6/2/2025

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-201853484.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. stock indexes drifted closer to records, coming off their stellar May.

    The S&P 500 rose 0.4% Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.7%.

    Each of the indexes had dropped nearly 1% in the morning following some discouraging updates on U.S. manufacturing. But stocks rallied back as the day progressed, and gains for a few influential Big Tech stocks helped the S&P 500 to rise even though the majority of stocks within it weakened."
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  3. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Today was a pretty good start to the week. Hope we can build up some momentum and finish out Q2 strong.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  4. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    But if you keep doubling your bet, you're bound to win, right? :booyah:
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like this....of course I should since it made me a lot of money.

    The Magnificent Seven Stocks Staged a Blistering May Rally. What's Next?

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/magnificent-seven-stocks-staged-blistering-191200445.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Takeaways
    • The Magnificent Seven gained more than 13% last month, making the group of big tech stocks one of the best-performing corners of financial markets in May.
    • The group is still trading in the red for the year, but stocks could get a boost from Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference and Tesla's scheduled robotaxi rollout this month.
    • After rebounding from their post-"Liberation Day" slump, tech valuations have returned to historically high levels.

    The Magnificent Seven had a strong May, but the group remains in the red for 2025. What's next?

    Taken together, the seven big tech stocks—names like Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META) and more—outperformed dozens of other assets tracked by Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen last month. The group saw their stocks rise more than 13% in aggregate in May, their biggest monthly gain in 2 years, according to Allen.

    Nonetheless, the group remains one of the few corners of global markets lower since the start of the year. Of 32 different sets of investments tracked by Allen—including global equity indexes, government and corporate bonds, foreign exchange indexes, and commodities—only one other asset, crude oil, is negative for the year.

    Whether the Mag Seven can climb into positive territory this month could depend on what Wall Street thinks of a few upcoming corporate events.

    What Could Lift Some Mag Seven Laggards in June

    Apple (AAPL) will host its Worldwide Developers Conference on June 9. The iPhone maker is expected to unveil a software development kit that helps outside developers build features with Apple Intelligence’s underlying large language models. That would effectively let Apple outsource some of the work of building AI products for its devices, which could help close the perceived gap in AI capabilities between it and major peers.

    And around the middle of the month, Tesla (TSLA) is expected to roll out its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in what could be a major test of the company’s autonomous vehicle ambitions.

    Apple and Tesla are the worst-performing stocks in the Mag Seven so far this year, with their shares down about 20% and 16%, respectively. Investor enthusiasm about the companies' progress in some emerging areas seen as vital could help lift their shares.

    BofA Upgrades Tech Sector, Downgrades Comms

    Bank of America analysts on Monday upgraded the information technology sector—home to Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia, and Broadcom (AVGO), the latter a non-Magnificent stock—to neutral from underweight, and downgraded communications services—including Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta—to underweight from neutral. They cited active funds’ historically low exposure to IT and high exposure to communications, as well as the communications and media industry’s comparatively unpredictable revenue streams.

    Perceived recession risks have decreased in the last month thanks to easing tensions between the U.S. and China. Lately, though each side has accused the other in recent days of violating the terms of their agreement, demonstrating the fragility of their detente. The Mag Seven’s communications companies, Alphabet and Meta, likely have the most recession-proof ad businesses on the internet thanks to the sheer size of their audiences.

    Yet the tech giants face another risk, according to BofA analysts: Tech companies, they say, addressed elevated interest rates in 2023 by effectively “shortening duration”—they cut costs, reduced capital expenditures, and increased their cash returns. Today, Alphabet and Meta are locked in an all-out AI arms race, spending tens of billions of dollars a year on AI infrastructure. That spending could tie the companies’ hands in the event of a slowdown.

    Another risk for tech stocks is their price tag, according to BofA. Valuations have declined from their recent highs, but the stocks are still expensive—the Mag Seven's P/E ratio of 33.1 is well above the S&P 500's long-term average—and earnings expectations remain elevated."

    MY COMMENT

    These sorts of articles are usually all the same. They spend the first half of the article on the positive....FACT. Than they switch to the negativity and doom and gloom......based on SPECULATIVE OPINION...in the second half of the article.

    Imagine how nice it would be as an investor if we did not have to hear the constant speculative negative opinions every day....if the media just waited till there was actual FACT....to report.

    BUT....no...they have to talk everything to death...usually in negative terms.....even though what they talk about daily .....rarely actually happens. Going forward......you dont hear a peep about that issue anymore as they move on to the next topic.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES....Road. If I lost I would just double my bet till I won. DUH. It is a no lose situation.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    My view of the PROBABILITIES.....investors have lost all interest in the tariff story-line. It is no longer a fear-mongering story that produces a...negative knee-jerk reaction. the markets and investors have moved on.

    S&P 500 posts modest gain to start June as investors shrug off global trade tensions

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    BUMMER...for the media.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    My kid and son in law are pushing toward a new ALL TIME HIGH in their three accounts that I manage. This is in spite of pulling out about $100,000 in 2024 for two new vehicles.

    With where they are right now....they might be able to hit an all time high in June if we get a little bit of luck. I dont do market timing......but...we did manage to cash in that money at a time when the markets and their accounts were close to a high. A little bit of educated profit taking.....since I knew they would be needing the money fairly soon when we sold.

    At ages 40 and 44.....they have a legit shot at hitting $1MILLION in their three accounts within the next 12 months. Pretty good....for a non-retirement taxable brokerage account.....which started at ZERO with $500 per month each going into a simple SP500 ETC. Over the years as the account value grew...I added my usual nine stocks.....when I felt the time was right. They still do $500 each...each month into the SP500 ETF.

    They are both under an AMAZING government pension plan....so these accounts are "extra" money. Having money like this......in a taxable brokerage account.....makes life so much easier when you have a big unanticipated disaster or expense or your car dies.

    This was achieved by doing good old fashioned long term investing for the past ten or so years.

    "YOU" can do the same thing. There was nothing MAGIC about what they did and how they did it. SIMPLE...old fashioned...saving and investing. TAKE THE FIRST STEP TODAY....OPEN THAT BROKERAGE ACCOUNT THAT YOU HAVE BEEN THINKING ABOUT FOR SO LONG AND PUT IN SOME AMOUNT BETWEEN $100 and $500....by automatic bank draft every month.
     
    #24628 WXYZ, Jun 2, 2025 at 4:54 PM
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025 at 4:59 PM
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  9. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    You...me...Vegas... Now!
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have to take off for my wife's last cataract appointment. It is a good open today...at least for what I own....I like it.

    You all take care of the markets till I get back about mid day.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Seems like a nice relaxing day in the markets today. Of course I missed it all so I have no idea what went on before now.

    I have a nice gain going if I can just hold on for another 1.25 hours.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The economic news of the day.....;yes....once again the experts are WRONG.

    Job openings rise more than expected in April despite tariff escalation

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-...pril-despite-tariff-escalation-145250191.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Job openings unexpectedly rose in the first month that a wide swath of President Trump's tariffs went into effect.

    After hovering near a four-year low in March, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.39 million jobs open at the end of April, an increase from the 7.2 million seen the month prior. The data comes as investors closely watch for signs that economic growth may be slowing further.

    The March figure was revised higher from the 7.19 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.1 million openings in April. The April survey included data from the period immediately following Trump's announcement of steep reciprocal tariffs for a host of countries. Those were put on a 90-day pause on April 9, with 10% baseline tariffs remaining in effect. The data doesn't include any reaction to the US-China tariff pause in May.

    "A rise in job openings at the end of April shows labor demand is far from collapsing in the wake of policy uncertainty, but the modest gain still leaves openings declining on trend," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "Turnover remains subdued as businesses await more clarity on the outlook and workers await more job opportunities."

    The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.57 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.4 million made during March. The hiring rate ticked up to 3.5% from 3.4%. In one sign that workers may be getting more cautious about labor market conditions, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, moved down slightly to 2% from 2.1% in March.

    Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows, reflecting what economists have described as a labor market in "stasis." Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth told Yahoo Finance that the slight tick down in quits in April shows "at the margin, a cooling off economy."

    The latest JOLTs data comes as market participants continue to closely watch economic data for any signs that Trump's tariff escalation is weighing on growth data. In April, tariffs appeared to have minimal impact on the headline labor market numbers as the US economy added 177,000 nonfarm payrolls while the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%.

    Economists don't expect Friday's May jobs report to show significant signs of cooling either. Consensus expects a modest higher slowdown with nonfarm payroll additions projected to fall to 130,000 in May while the unemployment rate once again held flat at 4.2%.

    MY COMMENT

    YES.....WRONG AGAIN. All the so called "experts" predicting a jobs market disaster and a slowing economy from the tariffs are simply WRONG. Nothing more then wishful thinking that reflects their political bias.....for the most part.

    NO.....we are not anywhere near a recession.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is another person that is constantly...nearly every week and sometimes every day.....making predictions of doom and gloom. He needs to just SHUT UP and GO AWAY. The media loves to quote him. I would IGNORE any prediction or other commentary from this person.....he is totally BIASED and with his business interests it is likely that he is talking out of self interest.

    Of course as he constantly makes all his dire predictions......his trading operations are raking in record money.

    JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is getting louder about his US debt worries

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmo...uder-about-his-us-debt-worries-175626002.html
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AMAZINGLY.....NONE...of the fear-mongering predictions about the economic impact of tariffs are coming true. Sure there are no guarantees for the future.....but....right how it is all one big NOTHING-BURGER. No rise in inflation....which has actually gone down. No collapse in the jobs numbers. AND....ZERO indication of recession.

    BUMMER....if you are an investor that took action based on all the BS.
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A weird story. Just shows that you have to do your own due diligence.......and stick to the larger cap more scrutinized companies.

    Bankrupt AI Startup Builder.ai’s Bots Were Actually Indian Workers

    https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2025...uilder-ais-bots-were-actually-indian-workers/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The tech world is shocked as Builder.ai, once a highly valued AI startup, faces bankruptcy amid revelations that its AI was actually a team of Indian workers.

    The International Business Times reports that the once-celebrated British startup Builder.ai, valued at $1.5 billion and backed by prominent investors such as Microsoft and the Qatar Investment Authority, has filed for bankruptcy protection. The company’s downfall began when a key lender, Viola Credit, withdrew $37 million from its accounts, leaving a mere $5 million in restricted funds and crippling operations across five countries.

    Builder.ai, founded in 2016, presented itself as a cutting-edge platform that used artificial intelligence to allow businesses to create custom applications with minimal coding. The company had raised over $450 million in total funding from high-profile investors, including Microsoft, the World Bank’s IFC, Jeffrey Katzenberg’s WndrCo, Lakestar, and SoftBank’s DeepCore incubator.

    However, the startup’s AI facade began to crumble when former employees raised concerns about inflated sales performance during investor briefings. These allegations led to a series of events, including investor apprehension, internal management changes, and a loss of confidence in the company.

    The most damaging revelation came from Linas Beliūnas, Director of the financial company Zero Hash, who exposed that Builder.ai lacked true AI capabilities. Instead, the company relied on a group of Indian developers who pretended to be AI bots writing code. Beliūnas also highlighted that the company’s founder, Sachin Dev Duggal, had reportedly presented false revenue figures to investors, managing to sustain this deception for eight years.

    This type of fakery is known as “AI washing,” where the work of humans is passed off as that of AI. As Breitbart News previously reported:

    BBC News reports that the phenomenon of “AI washing” has been gaining attention in recent months, as more companies claim to use AI in their products and services. The term, a play on “green washing,” refers to companies making over-inflated claims about their use of AI. This can take several forms, such as claiming to use AI when using less-sophisticated computing, overstating the efficacy of AI over existing techniques, or suggesting that AI solutions are fully operational when they are not.

    One high-profile example is Amazon’s “Just Walk Out” technology, which claims to use AI to enable customers at many of its Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go shops to simply pick their items and leave, with the AI using sensors to determine what they have chosen and automatically billing them. However, reports earlier this year questioned the extent of AI’s role in the system, suggesting that around 1,000 workers in India were needed to manually check almost three quarters of the transactions. Amazon denied these reports, stating that the Indian workers were simply reviewing the system.

    The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) emerged as one of the biggest losers in this saga, having led a $250 million funding round just two years ago. The insolvency proceedings at Builder.ai reflect a growing trend of instability among AI startups, many of which have expanded rapidly based on hype without robust financial oversight or genuinely unique products.

    As a result of the lender’s actions and the revelations about the company’s operations, Builder.ai’s CEO, Manpreet Ratia, who took over from founder Sachin Dev Duggal earlier this year, has stated that most of the workforce has been laid off. The company is now commencing bankruptcy filings in its operational territories, including the UK, US, UAE, Singapore, and India."

    MY COMMENT

    My view....where are all the analysts and CPA's and other experts in all areas of AI and business that are supposedly evaluating a new company like this.

    It is all a sham and a big joke. Not the company....but those that were recommending this stock. How in hell does MSFT and the QTA get suckered into something like this. YES.....we give companies and people way more credit for being experts than they deserve.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I got a MILD-BIG gain today. I am racking up some good gains this week....two days in a row. My only RED stocks today were AMZN, GOOGL, and COST.

    I also beat the SP500 today by.....0.60%.

    So far I am loving this........NO NEWS.....NO DRAMA....week.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just noticed that......THIS THREAD....is now over......2MILLION views. Most of them came in the most recent 3-4 years of the thread. I think we are doing over 500,000 views a year now. Way to go everyone.

    Of course...I dont personally benefit since I am anonymous and I do not own or participate in the ownership of this site.

    CONGRATULATIONS to all of us that post here and all of us that lurk here. Tell your friends.....and....put up a post once in a while. Contribute to the thread. We LIKE you to participate. No prior experience necessary.

    JOIN US WE ALL LEARN TOGETHER.


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #24637 WXYZ, Jun 3, 2025 at 4:08 PM
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2025 at 4:16 PM
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  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Anyway....moving on. Here is the close today.

    Dow closes 200 points higher, S&P 500 climbs as Nvidia lifts tech sector

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The S&P 500 rose Tuesday, fueled by strong gains in AI leader Nvidia, as investors anticipated details on potential U.S. trade deals.

    The broad market index added 0.58%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 214.16 points, or 0.51%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.81%.

    Nvidia, along with other chip stocks, helped drive this advance. The dominant maker of artificial intelligence chips advanced nearly 3%, extending Monday’s gains and passing Microsoft in market cap for the first time since January. Meanwhile, others like Broadcom and Micron Technology rose more than 3% and more than 4%, respectively.

    The Street is seeing past this game of high stakes poker and believe Trump and Xi on the schedule to speak this week is bullish for U.S.-China relations,” said analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, adding that Nvidia is a key beneficiary of deal talks between the two countries.

    To be sure, CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall still cautions that the market might be in a trading range between 5,700 and its late February high for a little while.

    “We’re not going to get second quarter GDP data until July, we’re not going to start to get second quarter earnings data until July, and we’re also not going to be hearing more about tariffs until July,” the chief investment strategist told CNBC. “The market is going to just sort of bob and weave in the meantime until we start to get a clearer understanding, if we get one, of the outlook for earnings, GDP growth, etc.”

    Tuesday’s moves followed the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development cutting its U.S. growth outlook. The OECD now sees the U.S. economy expanding by just 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.2%.

    Tariffs and policy uncertainty were among the key factors cited by the OECD to explain the reductions.

    Beijing recently said the U.S. was in violation of a trade truce, countering President Donald Trump’s own accusations that China wasn’t living up to the temporary trade agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said Sunday that Trump and President Xi Jinping would speak soon to discuss trade.

    Meanwhile, the European Union criticized Trump’s intention to double steel tariffs to 50%, saying that it “undermines” negotiations with the U.S. An EU spokesperson said that the bloc was “prepared to impose countermeasures.”

    MY COMMENT

    The OCED.....what a joke. I cant believe that anyone has the guts to quote that sort of BS.

    I am sure I am going to pay any attention to some.....International....group trying to tell us what the USA GDP is going to be. Talk about BIAS and INCOMPETENCE....that is the OCED.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  20. broteau

    broteau New Member

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    As I did awhile back I am moving some of my NVIDIA profits during this current run up as I see some discounts on my other core holdings and funds. These are small moves to help lock in gains from NVIDIA but also balance the my portfolio percentage which has become heaviy on PLTR and NVDIA. Great problem to have. Might miss some bigger gains if the current run up continues but in the long run I will be better positioned.
     
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