Here is the media take on what the markets will face next week. Investors set to flock to safety as world awaits Iran’s response https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inve...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD US strikes escalate Israel-Iran conflict as geopolitics overshadow economics: What to know this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-s...onomics-what-to-know-this-week-113533675.html MY COMMENT In their usual fashion the media calls "TRADERS and SPECULATORS"....."INVESTORS"......in the headline above. ACTUAL "investors" will simply be doing NOTHING in response to the events above. AND....as usual "We" are the safe haven for the world in any little event. I expect little to no real impact on any actual....."investor". In fact I would not be surprised to see a GREEN week.
As I noted above.....I see basically ZERO impact for any actual.....REAL....investor. Gulf markets end higher, shielded from major turmoil after the U.S. strike on Iran https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/22/gulf-markets-end-higher-iran-strike.html “The market might be priced in on removing a big overhang, which is the Iranian threat,” Arbid said, which “at least the international investor would look at positively” once the issue of Iran is removed."
No doubt we will see....potentially....MASSIVE media fear-mongering. Opinion reporting and speculation on financial sites will be rampant. My view in one word.....WHATEVER.
Here is a nice little historical summary of NVDA.....for those that have little knowledge of this company. Nvidia: How the chipmaker evolved from a gaming startup to an AI giant https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...-gaming-startup-to-an-ai-giant-140140110.html Most of us take our knowledge of NVDA for granted.....but....I am sure there are still many investors that dont have much knowledge of the company.
Here is a really nice article that does a very good job of summing up the current housing market. Why the housing market is so stuck, in 4 charts High mortgage rates, high prices, and economic uncertainty all play a role in weak home sales. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-housing-market-is-so-stuck-in-4-charts-100054853.html
I figure two ways. I'll get an opportunity to pick up some shares at a discount at some point or I'll continue to make money on the shares previously bought....LOL. I'm fine either way. Whatever information is bantered about, and there will be plenty as usual, take it in small doses or just enough to stay informed. Or, just ignore it altogether. Whether you know or don't know, is not going to change the outcome of the event.
After a slight RED open we have settled a little into the GREEN about a half hour in. It will be a typical day today. We have seen this sort of day for the past couple of weeks. MILD action and moderate gains or losses at the end. In other words a NORMAL market with little to nothing going on. The FED is nothing now and we are a few weeks away from the start of earnings. SO....the markets are just drifting along.
It begins. Tesla launches 'foundational' robotaxi service in Austin on limited scale https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD MY COMMENT Perhaps a big turning point for TSLA and shareholders. Time will tell if they can bring this to scale and achieve consumer acceptance on a large scale.
Rates are very nice at Money Market Funds right now.....and are attracting many deposits. A good thing for consumers and regular people. However....I suspect that many people dont even know about this and fail to take advantage of it.....especially for shorter term money..... for money that is not suitable for the stock market. Investors Rush to Pour Cash Into $7.4 Trillion US Money-Market Fund Industry https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-rush-pour-cash-7-123000980.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) — The rush of cash into the US money-market funds is showing few signs of slowing as it secured a record $7.4 trillion in assets. Investors have poured more than $320 billion into the funds so far this year, according to Crane Data LLC, making it one of the biggest benefactors of the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy. That’s something of a surprise for those on Wall Street who’d gone into 2025 assuming officials would lower interest rates and sap the attractive returns offered by the industry. “$7 trillion can easily be $7.5 trillion in 2025,” said Deborah Cunningham, chief investment officer for global liquidity markets at Federated Hermes. “Five-percent-plus rates were nirvana, four-percent-plus is still very good — and if we dip down into the high threes, that’s quite acceptable as well.” The average simple seven-day yield is now 3.95% for government funds and 4.03% for prime, an 8 basis point spread, according to Bank of America Corp. It’s a compelling backdrop as some 600 participants gather at the annual Crane’s Money Fund Symposium, which kicks off Monday in Boston. Money funds have seen their coffers swell in recent years, notably in early 2020 for their haven appeal and again as the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle boosted yields. Even as the Fed pivoted to cutting rates last year, assets continued to rise, with these funds typically slower to pass along the effects of lower rates when compared to banks. Households have been a key driver of the inflows. Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, total assets under management in US money funds have swelled by roughly $2.5 trillion, and retail investors have accounted for about 60% of that, Investment Company Institute data show. Data from ICI exclude firms’ own internal money funds, unlike Crane Data, which tracks the money market industry. Inflows have continued even as the industry sees some investors embrace alternatives, such as ultra-short funds in the fixed income or equities, Cunningham said. Overall, though, it’s a far cry from the exodus of cash from money-market funds that some on Wall Street had forecast. “It’s not surprising asset levels have held on and grown,” said Michael Bird, senior fund manager at Allspring Global Investments. “Even if the Fed picks up its easing campaign this year, rates will still be relatively high.” The Fed last week laid out forecasts for two quarter-point rate cuts this year, aligning with market pricing. Although the risk that conflict in the Middle East drives up oil prices and causes a resurgence in inflation remains an uncertatinty, traders see a quarter-point reduction as likely in September and all but guaranteed by October. Given that interest-rate backdrop, money-market funds are trying to extend the weighted-average maturity — known as WAM — of their holdings as long as possible to capture elevated yields. Fund managers have also adjusted holdings to compensate for the effects of debt-ceiling drama. While Wall Street strategists largely expect the government to raise the debt limit as part of the reconciliation process by late of July or early August, some funds have put more cash toward repurchase agreements — loans collateralized by Treasuries or agency debt — as an alternative. Still, “the expectation is when the debt ceiling gets resolved, there will be a significant increase in bill issuance, which helps yields,” Bird said. “Uncertainty is helping our product.”" MY COMMENT Great rates for short term money. BUT....I suspect there are many retail investors with cash sitting in a sweep account that pays peanuts. I remember very well way back in the 1970's....when i started to hear about these new accounts called Money Market Funds. Back than as the rates and inflation took off some funds ended up paying 10-12%. I did a lot of research and decided to open a Money Market account. I had a lot of hesitancy at first because it sounded too good to be true. Over about a year or two these funds swept the money and brokerage industry. Back than I had a "Treasury Only" money market fund since I wanted only the highest level of safety.
Based on the robo-taxi lunch today TSLA is up by over 8%......$26....at the moment. Although the stock is still down by nearly 8% YTD.
NO.....we are NOT seeing any impact of the fear-mongering over oil prices and/or the bombing in Iran happening in the markets today. We are ALL green in the big averages and looking good so far. So far....so good. Dow gains nearly 200 points as oil trades into the red despite U.S. bombing of Iran https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/22/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks were higher on Monday even after the United States entered Israel’s war against Iran over the weekend by striking three nuclear sites as the increase in oil prices was relatively tame. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 189 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite was 0.5% higher. The U.S. launched attacks Saturday at Iranian sites in Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz, surprising investors who were expecting more diplomacy to possibly take place after Trump said on Friday that he would make a decision to attack Iran “within the next two weeks,” according to the White House. Oil prices had already spiked in recent weeks following the increased tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude oil futures on Sunday night reached highs not seen since January before paring those gains. U.S. oil slipped more than 1% on Monday after Trump said in a Truth Social post that “everyone” should keep oil prices low, and doing otherwise “play into the hands of the enemy.” Trump said in a Saturday evening speech from the White House after the attacks that “there will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.” “Markets only care about oil supply shocks, so as long as that stay at bay, we’ll see markets sharply higher,” said Jamie Cox, managing director at Harris Financial Group. “Regardless of whether the President oversold the effectiveness of the strikes or not, the nuclear program is Iran was set back decades.” Now traders braced for Iran’s retaliation with the hope that the country would not use an option that could risk a broader conflict and the removal of the regime there. Iran could target U.S. personnel in nearby bases or close the Strait of Hormuz, which would majorly disrupt global oil flows. A prolonged blocking of the strait could boost oil prices above $100 per barrel. In a Sunday interview, with Fox News, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for the Chinese government to step in and prevent Iran from closing the key trade route. China remains Iran’s most important oil customer. “While Iran has flirted with closing the Strait of Hormuz, investors aren’t terribly panicked about an oil market calamity, an equanimous view that’s appropriate at this point,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge in a Monday note. “Geopolitical risks are undoubtedly elevated in the Middle East right now, but our view remains that the extreme asymmetry of the conflict (with Iran’s military capabilities, and those of its proxy partners, significantly degraded), coupled with Tehran’s relative isolation (with few, if any, allies willing to come to its assistance) and ample global oil supplies, will help keep the fallout contained.” A greater war in the Middle East adds another threat to the stock market and the economy, already dealing with a rushed remaking of global trade by Trump this year. “Despite all the heat generated by Trump’s tariff turmoil and now the war in the Middle East, the US economy continues to display its resilience, as it has over the previous three years when Russia invaded Ukraine and the Fed tightened monetary policy,” wrote Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research, in a Sunday note." MY COMMENT The market reaction along with the oil prices continues to FOOL all of those that expected the worst. In addition the USA economy is strong and looking good. We are in a time period where long term investors are gaining experience negotiating world events. Over time as an investor as you hold through different events.....fear and panic....over such events lessens. You gain experience and learn to trust your investing plan. Look at all the events we have gone through over the past five years....starting with the pandemic and closure of the USA economy. The resilience of the markets and returns for investors that just did nothing....are AMAZING.
I posted a link to a really good article on the real estate markets a day ago. Here is the latest today. May home sales increase very slightly, but prices hit another record high https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/23/may-home-sales-prices.html "Key Points There were 1.54 million housing units available at the end of May, an increase of over 20% from May of last year. The median price of an existing home sold in may was $422,800, up 1.3% year of very. Homes are taking longer to sell at 27 days versus 24 a year ago." MY COMMENT The real estate markets continue to try to sort things out. The extreme low mortgage rates of a few years ago have DISTORTED the markets by creating huge resistance to sell on the part of low rate mortgage holders. In addition the influx of a big percentage of ALL CASH buyers in many markets is also impacting the markets. It has been a strange five years in real estate. We continue with a stalemate between buyers and sellers. It looks...to me....to still be a slight sellers market in desirable areas of the country. The key for buyers.....do your research....be informed and understand the dynamics of your local market. In my very specific little neighborhood....there are four homes for sale. They have all been on the market for at least 75 days. There are three that were priced at $2MILLION. I note that one has now dropped to $1.899MILLION. The other two are still priced at $2MILLION. The forth home is priced at 1.4MILLION and has been on the market the longest.....about 150 days. I think it is overpriced and should be priced at about $1.250MILLION. In my larger area of about 4200 homes....the high end of the market seems to be DEAD at the moment. ALL the pending sales I am seeing are below $1MILLION.
We are now seeing a split starting to develop on the FED. Fed Governor Bowman favors July interest rate cut if inflation stays low https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/23/fed...interest-rate-cut-if-inflation-stays-low.html "Key Points Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Monday she would favor an interest rate cut at the next policy meeting in July so long as inflation pressures stay muted. Bowman’s comments are similar to those from fellow Governor Christopher Waller, who told CNBC on Friday that he also thinks the Fed could consider cutting in July." MY COMMENT Nice to see some dissent....but....on the FED the Chair is KING. We will see how inflation comes in over the summer......but...I still am expecting the first rate cut to happen in September or later.
You can see from what I have posted today that it is a NOTHING day. No big drama...no big fear....no big excitement. Just a routine day.
AS USUAL: SO....here is my current portfolio of....NINE....stocks. The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio. "I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 9 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia Palantir WMT (junior position) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
A good start to the week.....I had only two stocks in the RED AMZN, and GOOGL. I also got a medium size gain today. BUT...the SP500 beat my by 0.23%.
Apparently we are now at the end of the IRAN situation. I am seeing many articles about a ceasefire. As to the fear-mongers of the past 12 days.....WHATEVER. You know one of the most important things as a long term investor is to develop a very thick skin. It happens slowly over time. BUT.....it is very important to be able to mentally stand all the short term heat and stay in the markets for the BIG long term gains.
I have commented often about the disconnect and disrespect of NVDA in spite of HISTORIC earnings reports for at least 8-10 quarters now. Here is another WTF. Nvidia Makes 4x Intel's Revenue—But Commands Half The Forward Valuation https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46058862/nvidia-intel-chip-stocks-ai-valuation-revenue (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "In the battle of Silicon Valley titans, Nvidia Corp is leaving Intel Corp in the dust – on both the income statement and the stock chart. Despite generating almost four times as much revenue as Intel on an annualized basis, as Beth Kindig, the lead tech analyst at I/O Fund, noted on X, Nvidia trades at less than half Intel's forward price-to-earnings ratio. If that sounds backwards, you're not alone. For its last reported quarter, Nvidia grossed $44 billion in revenues. This, compared to Intel’s last reported quarterly revenue of $12.67 billion, shows the former’s dominant positioning. For the year ended December 2024, Intel grossed $53 billion in annual revenues. Moreover, Nvidia has been growing its quarterly revenue at a rate of 70% YoY for the past two reported quarters. Won’t be long before Intel’s annual revenue has a tough time catching up with Nvidia’s quarterly revenue. Despite the huge gap in revenue, the market values Nvidia's earnings far more conservatively: a forward PE of 34 versus Intel's frothy 79, per Benzinga Pro data. It's a head-scratcher – until you zoom out. Nvidia's Growth Engine Dwarfs Intel's Over the past decade, Nvidia has clocked a staggering 41% compound annual revenue growth, accelerating into the AI era with unmatched momentum. That's not just fast – it's Tesla Inc -fast, even outpacing Elon Musk's empire, which posted a 39% CAGR over the same period. And the stock? Nvidia's total return of 26,420% over the last 10 years – translating to a 75% CAGR – makes even Tesla's 1,740% return (34.6% CAGR) look tame. Meanwhile, Intel’s revenue has displayed negative compounded growth rates over the past three, five and 10 year periods. This isn't just hype. It's a decade of dominant execution, powered by GPU leadership in gaming, AI training, and data centers. With the upcoming rollout of next-gen Blackwell chips and hyperscaler demand at full tilt, Nvidia's growth story still has legs. Intel's Valuation Looks Disconnected From Reality Meanwhile, Intel's valuation seems to live in a parallel universe. Its forward PE of 79 suggests either a miraculous turnaround in earnings or blind hope. While CEO Pat Gelsinger is pushing hard on foundry ambitions and AI chips, results have yet to catch up – and the revenue gap with Nvidia continues to widen. So while Nvidia may seem expensive in absolute terms, it's arguably the better bargain when looking at what you get for every dollar invested. For investors, the message is clear: growth, not nostalgia, is driving the market – and Nvidia is riding that wave better than anyone." MY COMMENT Some day we are going to see some recognition of what NVDA is doing in their earnings. At least I....HOPE SO.
I wonder if at least some of it is due to the chip restrictions and further plans to possibly implement more in the future. I know NVDA CEO has mentioned this on more than a few occasions and is clearly not overly supportive of how that has been handled.
