Looks like a BIG MOVE for GOOGL in the AI race. It is about time. Google to pay $2.4 billion in deal to license tech of Windsurf, WSJ reports https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-pay-2-4-billion-023457413.html Google hires Windsurf execs in $2.4 billion deal to advance AI coding ambitions https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-hires-windsurf-ceo-researchers-225455421.html Windsurf’s CEO goes to Google; OpenAI’s acquisition falls apart https://finance.yahoo.com/news/windsurf-ceo-goes-google-openai-222151132.html I dont see any impact of this news in the GOOGL futures...yet. Although the news has only been out for perhaps 5-7 hours. It will be interesting to see if this impacts GOOGL stock.
I like this little article. How Markets View the Newest Tariff Deadline and Dealmaking Uncertainty lingers, but stocks are moving forward. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...iew-the-newest-tariff-deadline-and-dealmaking (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "So here we are, winding down the week when the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs was set to end, and a lot has happened. There is a deal and talk of more deals, as well as new tariffs and new deadlines. Overall, tariffs remain higher than they entered the year but also below worst-case expectations (Brazil aside). And, while uncertainty lingers, markets are gradually gaining clarity. And most importantly, markets are increasingly moving on from the day-to-day news flow, doing their day job of pricing in the next 3 – 30 months. The new deal, which follows modest deals with the UK and China, is with Vietnam. It formalizes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods—down from the 46% threatened on Liberation Day—while removing Vietnam’s tariffs on all US goods. It also stipulates goods transshipped through Vietnam will face a 40% rate, but it isn’t clear how transshipping is defined in this context or how it would be enforced. Depending on the specifics, this may create a path for other countries with high tariffs to reduce them by routing goods through Vietnam, especially if their tariffs end up exceeding 40% as China’s did earlier this year. But all in, while the new tariffs on Vietnamese goods are higher than they were on April 1, they are lower than what everyone feared on April 2. For markets, which move most on the gap between reality and expectations, that seems to be enough—particularly since simply knowing the tariff rates helps everyone plan and move forward. As for other trading partners, based on the flurry of announcements posted on President Donald Trump’s Truth Social account, higher tariffs are coming if trade deals aren’t reached by August 1—a deadline whose stickiness the administration seems divided over. Exhibit 1 rounds up the lot announced thus far. Exhibit 1: New Reciprocal Tariff Rates Source: White House and Reuters, as of 7/10/2025. You might notice the EU isn’t on this list. Trump has alluded to threatening new tariff rates, but negotiations on a deal are reportedly quite far along, so we may not get to that point. However, he did threaten a 200% tariff on pharmaceutical products, which happen to be a key export from the EU to the US. He also threatened a 50% levy on copper. So the ups and downs continue. Time will tell if any of these actually take effect. Japan has held several rounds of talks, but auto tariffs are reportedly a stumbling block. While that appears to be a stalemate for now, Korea is stepping up talks, with auto and steel tariffs key issues. Other nations are also negotiating. Time will tell how it all shakes out. Overall, though, things are mostly going better than the world expected in early April. The two counterpoints are Japan, whose new tariff rate is 1 percentage point higher than Liberation Day’s 24%, and Brazil. Yet there are many questions as to whether that Brazilian rate would withstand court challenges—in addition to the broader challenge to reciprocal and blanket tariffs already working its way through the courts. Without wading into the politics, Trump cited a domestic Brazilian political issue as the reason for the higher rate, which to the naked eye doesn’t seem consistent with the national security or currency manipulation grounds the president can base unilateral tariffs on. Particularly when you consider that the US runs a trade surplus with Brazil. A successful court challenge could render this and Brazil’s threatened retaliation moot. Given the lingering question marks, it is fair to say the uncertainty continues. Clarity is coming very gradually, with ups and downs, fits and starts. That makes it difficult for businesses to plan and invest. And while kicking the can on the July 9 deadline offers temporary relief to US businesses and consumers, it also pushes out clarity’s arrival. Yet the mere existence of headwinds doesn’t mean stocks do badly. Yet as of Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 is up slightly on the week. We aren’t getting the big swings up and down that we got with early April’s announcements. The shock factor seems to have worn off, as has the sharp myopia. It looks to us like markets are gazing further out, taking tariffs in stride as only one of many variables affecting growth and earnings. For stocks, this is fine. Probably better for stocks outside the US, given the simple truth, repeatedly proven throughout history, that tariffs hurt the imposer more than a target by redirecting spending and impeding the flow of capital. Because Europe and Asia haven’t broadly retaliated (a plus), they haven’t thus hamstrung their own economies. Instead, they seem to be focused on freeing trade with one another, which is a tailwind and long-term positive. All this, we think, feeds into non-US stocks’ big outperformance this year, which likely continues." MY COMMENT MASSIVE media fear-mongering on this topic....which has now been absorbed and for the most part....NO ONE CARES. It will be all good in the end.....and...investors will look back and wonder why they got all puffed up over this non-issue. It will have been a typical short term....DRAMA.
Amazing what jobs are in the TOP TEN highest unemployment rate for new college grads. PHYSICS.....COMPUTER ENGINEERING.....COMPUTER SCIENCE.....CHEMISTRY.....INFORMATION SYSTEMS+MANAGEMENT. I have known a good number of Americans that graduated in these and other STEM areas. The vast majority had a very difficult time finding a job. We graduate hundreds of thousands of people in STEM areas.....probably way more than there are jobs. YET.....we continue to import hundreds of thousands of foreign workers every year. We also continue to see companies lay-off American workers and replace them with foreign workers....in spite of this being illegal. AND....they often have to train their replacements....in order to get severance benefits. I dont....personally.....agree with what is going on in our employment system. BUT....that is just me. These college majors have the best job prospects — and they aren’t what students expect https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/12/college-majors-employment-prospects.html
From the article above. I would imagine "some" business are likely pulling their hair out over trying to figure out and plan too far ahead. Just in general from back where we started. We got a nice big cardboard tariff poster with rates. Then it was not really those numbers, but framework. It was "90 in 90" until it wasn't. It was a firm deadline....only to not be so firm. Then it was "on" again with "deals" just lining up. Now it is letters or is it MOU's.....or wait....it is just going to be an announcement of some sort saying what the rate will be....."if we haven't heard something by some date." Of course, most realize by now that I think it has been one of the poorest and silly implementation processes I have ever seen.....just my opinion and I know others likely don't agree. I'm okay with that. I picked this excerpt from the article above for a couple of points. Some of the international funds I have followed are still up over 20% YTD. Not saying it is totally related/focused on the tariff deals, but I suspect some of that performance might be related to it. I find the outperformance of the last year or so and currently an interesting little tidbit. May not continue and it may keep doing so for awhile. Will be interesting to watch. The other section touched briefly on the importer. I have been a bit surprised to some extent how this is often misunderstood. Although, this article seems to get it on that point. What is even more surprising and at times a bit embarrassing are some of the quotes by the finance guys in leadership roles. I thought most folks learned a bit about import/exports in secondary education. I think some of this has been reflected in the market when we often hear the "market is just shrugging it off." My thoughts at the moment would be....Why wouldn't it, at least at this point. We do not know anymore than we really did in April. Kind of funny in a way. Mr. Market is like....this has gotten dumb as hell and I am moving on until they figure out what they are doing. Anyway, just my insignificant 2 cents.
Interesting. A sort of related story from a while back was the TSMC plants going in. Although it was a bit opposite in a way. They were having to fly in people with expertise from Taiwan to even get the thing moving/started because of our own lack of folks with know how. Certainly, I am sure they are "training up" some people here, but we just didn't have enough of those with that knowledge to go around at the time. Something we should think about. Especially in this particular area. We have gotten so used to farming stuff out to others and relying on it that we really have limited our capabilities to do these things at a grand scale and in an expedient manner. We have gotten a bit lax and lazy about that kind of thing here in the US.
GREAT Smokie. Now it will be a long wait to get your report on how they go over.....but you have to report to us.
You know I was driving to pick up a pizza today....and I started doing some day-dreaming thinking about investing. I realized that other than this site..... I dont record my annual results anywhere. I dont keep any data at all on my nine stocks or on my total return of my entire portfolio. The only thing I write down each year is the gain or loss of my SP500 Index Fund and my Fidelity Contra Fund. I also notate with a colored marker if each beats the SP500....of course one of them is the SP500 and with colored marker if the total return is over 10%. These two funds are the only data that I have or keep. WHY? Because,.....in general.....I dont care what the return is for each year. Of course I know what it is since I post it on here...but after a few years I could not tell you what any one year result was without looking it up on this thread.....and......I never do. To me that sort of data is NOT relevant. I want to know what my LONG TERM result is in each account and where the SP500 is for that same time span. I simply dont care about anything else....this to me is PERFORMANCE. I imagine that most people keep some sort of record of their annual results and perhaps a bit of data for each particular holding. I would be curious to hear what sort of data others on here keep.
Here is what is important to me....here are some of the real accounts that I own or manage. For each account I will show...the maximum dates that Schwab will show me.....The annualized return for that time period excluding contributions......any other 2, 3, or 5, year data that I think is relevant. My primary brokerage account......6-21-2018 to 7-11-2025.....annualized return +27.41%. Another large brokerage account......2-15-2019 to 7-11-2025.....annualized return +24.45%. One of my kids brokerage accounts.....12-31-2016 to 7-11-2025.....annualized return +20.60%. This particular account has a 5 year return of +25.06%. For much of it's life this account was in only a SP500 Index Fund....about 3 years ago I put in place my usual 9 stocks and started to manage it much more closely. One of my kids IRA accounts......12-31-2016 to 7-11-2025.....annualized return +20.60%. I started full positions in the 9 stocks in this account just the past couple of years.....5 year return here is annualized at +26.58%. Another IRA account......12-31-2016 to 7-11-2025.....annualized return +16.77%. This account is another one that was in just the SP500 till about 1.5 years ago. I let this account get too big in only the SP500 as a....."safe account"....for my sibling......but I realized about 1.5 years ago that I was leaving a lot of money on the table by not having my usual individual stocks in the account. At that time I started full positions in my nine stocks.......so over 3 years annualized return is 31.16%.....and over 2 years annualized return is +34.47%. In addition to the above I manage two other brokerage accounts....one of which is small but very aggressive being 100% in PLTR and NVDA.......and my son in laws brokerage account which is somewhere in the +26% to +30% range. There is of course variation above depending on when the account started, when and for how long it has had individual stocks, and small variations in the share count of each stock, etc, etc. But....BIG PICTURE.....A nice tight grouping as a whole. I usually go into the individual stocks in an account when it hits at least $200,000. At that point I go half into individual stocks and half into the SP500 INDEX fund...and let it run from there as it wishes, reinvesting all dividends and capital gains.
I think it is RIDICULOUS that shareholders and retail investors have sat mute and allowed the media and corporate management to sell them this load of BALONEY. I dont buy the share buy-back BS. It is taking money away from shareholders and giving it to corporate executives, stock options, etc, etc. Much of the historic gains and compounding for little investors has come from reinvesting dividends. Dividends are YOUR share of the company profits being returned to YOU for risking your money to support the company by being a shareholder. Where have all the dividends gone?! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-have-all-the-dividends-gone-123021534.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Remember dividends? You know, the check you used to collect every quarter for holding a share of a company? I say "used to" as you have probably long moved on to chasing growth stocks with no dividend checks, such as Nvidia (NVDA). I get it — why hold out for a measly dividend check four times a year when you can get rich overnight from a blowout quarter from Nvidia or fellow momo name Palantir (PLTR)! You aren't alone in forgetting about dividends — Corporate America appears to be doing the same as it plows cash flow into AI investments and share repurchases. (I hate repurchases, but that's a story for a different day.) Here's the context on this one. S&P 500 (^GSPC) dividend yields are now within 20 basis points of their all-time low, according to fresh research from Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid. Those lows were reached in the tech bubble of 2000, when everyone was paying up for growth and couldn't care less about dividends (sound familiar?). There is an important historical consideration to this, Reid notes. Prior to 1958, dividend yields were consistently higher than government bond yields. Stocks were viewed as super risky — lacking diversification, regulatory oversight, and corporate transparency. Investors demanded a high dividend yield as compensation for those risks. Moreover, dividends often enjoyed more favorable tax considerations than today, helping to cement the view that income was the most reliable path to long-term prosperity. Fast-forward to 2025, and companies are eschewing dividends for buybacks. Can you blame them? Share repurchases boost EPS, the same EPS that is often tied to executive bonuses. Further, higher EPS can support a higher stock price. Double bang for the buck! But a market fueled by buybacks rather than a steady stream of dividends has risks, Reid said. For one, buybacks are more discretionary. I am very keen to see if companies were still aggressive buyers during the second quarter amid the Trump trade turmoil or if they pulled back. Second, buybacks tend to occur more often at market tops than bottoms. That means companies are buying stock at the top, which could lead to a poor return on investment for shareholders. And three, buybacks encourage short-term thinking by managers. "So does a near-record low dividend yield matter? Not while companies are flush with cash and happy to repurchase their own stock," Reid said. "But it does make the US market more high beta. If a downturn hits, buybacks will stop far more quickly than dividends, potentially pulling away a key pillar of market support." "And with dividend yields now approaching all-time lows, there's a case to be made that valuations and investor expectations have become stretched. In a crisis, the lack of durable income from dividends may matter more than markets currently appreciate," he added. I slightly disagree with Reid, however. I do think dividends matter right now, and they should remain an important consideration in buying or selling a stock. I would much rather see a company lift its dividend by 15% than buy back a slug of stock. It's a good indicator of the long-term health of the business. If the business is going to suck wind five years from now, you don't lift your dividend by 15%, because cutting it five years from now will be met harshly in the markets. "I do care about dividends, and I like to see dividends on the stocks in our portfolios," Crossmark chief market strategist Victoria Fernandez told me on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid (watch above). "And so I think investors should be paying attention to this. It helps provide a little bit of a buffer to the volatility that you see in the marketplace."' MY COMMENT This buy-back BS is one of the greatest SCAMS on retail investors....ever. The SEC didn't even allow stock buybacks until 1982. BUT....I have no hope that this is going to change any time soon or even ever. it is now the NORM and accepted by everyone without question.
Most definitely will. I wanted to get in the order before time slipped up on me again. Plus, I wasn't sure if there might be "out of stock" items at the busy time of year. Now, the wait until Christmas begins...lol. It will be here before we realize it though.
Great Smokie. If you do the crackers over time you will find the brands that are better quality....especially in terms of the little gift/toy that is inside. They are now made for Christmas, Thanksgiving (see link), Halloween, Weddings, Valentines Day, etc, etc, etc. https://www.surlatable.com/product/sur-la-table-turkey-crackers-set-of-8/9198631?mrkgadid=1&mrkgen=gpla&mrkgbflag=0&mrkgcat=cat&acctid=21700000001683301&dskeywordid=92700076186156401&lid=92700076186156401&ds_s_kwgid=58700008258988464&ds_s_inventory_feed_id=97700000008343482&dsproductgroupid=884018402622&product_id=9198631&merchid=5755698&prodctry=US&prodlang=en&channel=online&storeid={product_store_id}&device=c&network=g&matchtype=&locationid={loc_phyiscal_ms}&creative=646720379182&targetid=pla-884018402622&campaignid=206387981&adgroupid=149304529161&gclsrc=aw.ds&&affsrcid=AFF0005&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=&utm_campaign=206387981&creative=646720379182&device=c&matchtype=&nbt=nb:adwords:g:206387981:149304529161:646720379182&nb_adtype=pla&nb_kwd=&nb_ti=pla-884018402622&nb_mi=5755698&nb_pc=online&nb_pi=9198631&nb_ppi=884018402622&nb_placement=&nb_li_ms=&nb_lp_ms=&nb_fii=&nb_ap=&nb_mt=&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=206387981&gclid=Cj0KCQjwss3DBhC3ARIsALdgYxMj5mYPmpd4jAqkxPnv4HKQIJdq6hMZUIpRSRrrqwVRojbSbwsA-dwaAo4fEALw_wcB https://www.williams-sonoma.com/products/spooky-soiree-crackers/?catalogId=79&sku=3961909&cm_ven=PLA&cm_cat=Google&cm_pla=Holidays > Halloween&cm_ite=3961909_22633617307_pla-296303633664&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22633617307&gclid=Cj0KCQjwss3DBhC3ARIsALdgYxNeJNAHnCws1SUw6-4ykRbxdDkCX69HbKFmW9ZAfMIkK11bkFGJ0GAaAp6aEALw_wcB We do them for Thanksgiving and Christmas. When we do a fancy holiday dinner for either holiday we set up a very formal table....sterling silver, hand made Talavera plates and place settings, and crystal. Although at other times we might do paper plates and plastic cups in holiday themes. We are very particular on our Talavera place settings and serving platters. Our go-to shop is at the Mexican Market (Historic Market Square) in San Antonio. There is a shop/booth there that has been there a long time.....the owners do a great job of selecting superior quality Talavera from Mexico. Although we have not been to the Mexican Market in over 5 years so I dont know if that shop is still there.....after the pandemic and due to the fact that the owners were up there in age. This particular shop is in the building that has the parking on top. ( the market is composed of two buildings.....a long low building and a more square building with parking on the roof)....for anyone that is near or making a trip to San Antonio.
I used to keep track many years ago, but so much has changed with information. Most of the big brokerages offer all sorts of data history on purchase/sell history, contributions, returns, full blown retirement planners and many other things. Now so much is offered with the reputable brokerages. You can even create and record your own input data for retirement planning, it will run individualized reports to break down how and what your portfolio is balanced in. There is so much research you can do now within those plans. It is really amazing how it has changed. The great thing is it is free depending on what and who you are with. Of course, they are able to do this with what they make on funds and other fees collected as a whole, so we are all paying "something", but in the overall scheme of things it is very cheap to self manage. It is worth exploring your own brokerages where investors hold their plans to see and navigate around the platforms to find all of the tools. Most of the big 3 probably offer these tools now I suspect. So, I really don't have to keep up with much anymore. It is all right there for me to explore and use what applies to me. Some good stuff too.
Yes, I did notice this when shopping around. There were some I just wasn't interested in. I chose a specific one for this year, since it is the inaugural of the Christmas Cracker here...lol. For suspense purposes....I will reveal the type and reason sometime during Christmas. So, stay tuned for that little story and outcome.
As to the portfolio performance figures I posted above.....please note that over the various time periods the SP500 is in the range of an annualized return of +14% to +15%. SO.....I am EXTREMELY satisfied with how those accounts are dong in comparison.....long term. The last time I kept any account performance data was through about 2005. I just quit keeping it at that point...it was just busy work.....and I knew I was consistently significantly beating the SP500. The BIG out-performance for me over the SP500 took off about 1990. It was driven by my BIG MSFT purchase....it was also driven by my early investments in NKE, COST, HD, and SBUX. A shot in the dark.....is there anyone on here that posted on the old MSN Money Board called "Super Models" back in the mid 1990's and beyond? I was on that board from the mid 1990's from about 1995....for many years as a very active poster.... till MSN got rid of their investment boards....under the posting name "REAL INVESTOR". My message was the same as now. If so...... do you remember "Frank the Impaler" or "Hit-man" on that board?
There is a "Hitman" on this board but not the same person that I reference in the post above. The old "Hit-Man" on the MSN board put up a many year continuing story of his pursuit of his "princess"....an EPIC story of unrequited love. He was an amateur stock trader and actually achieved professional trading status. He is the ONLY person I have ever seen in my life of investing to actually achieve the ability to make a living as a trader.....starting as an amateur. BUT most of his posts were about his pursuit of his "princess". He never won her.....and....she seemed to often take advantage of him in various ways. For him it was a TOTAL OBSESSION.....a sad story. BUT...it was obvious that much of his DRIVE to succeed.....and his success.....was due to trying to win her. So she actually helped him achieve success in investing.....even though they never got together.
Speaking of members/posters. At least in our area on this thread. I often wonder about Emment. Even zukodany at times. Funny how it is an anonymous place, but we somehow are "connected" to some posters. Speaking of absent posters, I haven't seen RTN (roadtonowhere) in a while. RTN....where are you??? Emment? Zukodany?? I know folks move on after time and it's quite possible that will always be the case. It is a message board after all. However, I enjoy the ones we do have that are still around too.
Taking off.....have a great day SMOKIE. BUT....yes....it is normal for people come and go on threads like this. I have experienced it over and over in 30 years of posting. I too wonder about EMMETT and ZUKODANY. I hope they are both ok and in good health. Also RTN. If any of you guys are still with us and out there.....pop in and let us know you are ok.
Yes, you are right about the "come and go" of posters I suppose. Makes sense. Now that I think of it, I suppose there will be a better than not chance I will someday disappear from the hallowed halls of the Long Term Investor thread. Although, I still enjoy the thread and have no immediate plans....that I know of.
phew. really relieved to hear this smokie. yea, it kinda stinks to see some of the regulars don’t come around or post here as often or at all lately anymore. i don’t know how much of this could be related to the time of the year that we’re in right now (aka, the “summer doldrums”). i’ll admit for me personally i’m much less active monitoring the daily markets lately now than ever before. it’s been kinda mundane out there ngl. not really all that much of the way of new things to talk about lol. just more of the same… tariffs, fed, etc etc. gets to be a little boring after a while. that being said, it’s good to see that you and wxyz are still holding down the fort here when it comes to staying active in this thread, for this thread is really the only good thing this site still has left anymore. everything else that gets posted to this site outside of this thread is mostly spam i’ve noticed. that’s unfortunate. speaking of missing members here i’ve also noticed the head admin of this site has been awol for over 2 months now. stockjocke. that’s a bit disconcerting tbh. but nevertheless, as long as the core members like yourself smokie and wxyz are still active that’s really all that matters. it’s good to see rui (rg7803) pop in here as well. anyhow, hope you guys continue to stay active and posting for if for any reason that stopped this site just wouldn’t be the same, as it will just be a site with spammers posting their content everyday and no real legitimate humans posting. wxyz is without a shadow of doubt in my mind the greatest content creator i have ever seen in my 20 years being at this community dating back to when this site was formerly called hsm (hotstockmarket). i kid you not. you rock wxyz!!
