A nice gain for me at the close today. Plus a good beat on the SP500 by.....0.25%. I had two RED stocks today...training wheel position WMT and poor AAPL. It has been a very good week so far for long term investors and I dont see anything negative for tomorrow.....or for that matter.....the next six months to year end.
The market today. S&P 500 rises to new closing record, boosted by solid earnings and U.S. economic data https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
And.....in addition to the above....at the end of the last page........we have not given up or decided to settle. I am still....even at age 75.... thinking ahead for the next 15-20 years....and long term planing to compound our net worth by 3-4 more times. In other words....double our net worth at least THREE more times. That is my MINIMUM goal. With where we are starting now and if we can double that three more times.........it will be a great LEGACY for our kids and grandchildren. Plus....there is lots of music left to be played and lots of art left to appreciate and buy....so....I have no plans to slow down or give up. Even now I am looking at things as a.....LONG TERM....investor.
Very good results from Interactive Brokers, one of the brokers I use for what I call "International portfolio". I am also holding a position I opened half year ago, with them. Pretty good product and service.
I'm currently sitting at +6% YTD with my portfolio, after being -32% somewhere in March. I went back into the market straight away after the New Year, not a very good decision in a hindsight. Now, I feel sorry for being reluctant to take half of my savings and buy the March/April dip. But I have to stick to my investing rules.
I use IBKR as well. Not sure if I'm happy 100% with them. Customer service is really poor. And IBKR App is clunky sometimes.
At least there is one person on the FED with a BRAIN. Fed's Waller Calls for July Interest Rate Cut https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds...h7gvvnbqeCN7wzXz_k1fmCV2XN-t6bztkO3UYEpL_RJKD "Key Takeaways Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers should cut interest rates this month to boost a job market that looks to be weakening. Waller said tariffs are “one-off increases” that don’t cause persistent inflation and noted that the central bank shouldn't "wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate." His comments come as Fed officials remain divided between those who believe inflation is tame enough to justify cutting the central bank's federal funds rate versus those who are concerned that tariffs will increase price pressures." MY COMMENT Sounds about right to me. We are now way behind the curve on cutting rates. This total FAILURE by the FED is costing USA consumers.....home buyers......and the government...... in terms of interest payments and obligations....big time. We are the greatest and strongest economy in the world....with way less issues than anywhere else......and we are siting and doing nothing while the rest of the world cuts, cuts, cuts. AND the VAST MAJORITY of the economic data fully supports cuts. Of course now the FED is totally disconnected from the data......and is off in fantasy land.
HERE is the market today.....I like it. Dow slips as S&P 500, Nasdaq rise in march to latest records https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...ise-in-march-to-latest-records-222535166.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks were mixed on Friday, hovering near record highs as signs of strength in the economy provided the buoyancy that Netflix's (NFLX) earnings report lacked. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose nearly 0.2% and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.2% Stocks are consolidating after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite vaulted to their latest all-time closing highs on Thursday. Wall Street welcomed a softening in jobless claims and stronger-than-expected retail sales, which showed little indication that President Trump's tariffs are affecting consumer spending habits. On the downside, Netflix's second quarter results failed to enthuse the market, pulling the stock about 1% lower in premarket trading. The streaming giant kicked off Big Tech earnings late Thursday with a wide profit beat and a solid revenue number. But investors likely wanted a bigger boost to full-year guidance to justify a raise on an already lofty valuation, analysts suggested. Meanwhile, earnings continue to roll in, with a focus on whether they continue to reflect steady resilience in corporate America. Friday's highlights include 3M (MMM), American Express (AXP), and Charles Schwab (SCHW). The major indexes are set for weekly wins, with this week's drama involving Trump's fury with Fed Chair Jerome Powell largely on the back burner. Powell sent a letter to Trump's top budget official on Thursday, defending the Fed's headquarters renovation project for which he has come under fire in recent days. But already, the focus is turning to who could replace Powell next year and the additional dual mandate that person will face: keeping Trump happy while attempting to maintain the Fed's independence." MY COMMENT As usual the experts have been wrong on just about EVERYTHING lately. That is of course a very good thing. The markets are BOOMING.......but....in a way that looks like it can be an epic run up for a long time. As to Netflix....I dont own it....but they had a really good EARNINGS BEAT. Unfortunately it is totally disrespected. This is just STUPID short term action. A report this good should have investors CHEERING. At this moment the big averages are mixed.....and....the gains in the SP500 and NASDAQ are MILD. Can they hold till the close......many hours from now....we will see.
No....I dont think so.....they put up a really good earnings report......to answer this headline. They are being hit by the short term MORONS today and those that are out of touch with investing reality. Does Netflix Stock Need 'A Breather' After Earnings? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-netflix-stock-breather-earnings-124524964.html Does this sound like a RATIONAL reason for a stock to be down by over 5% right now? "Netflix yesterday turned in net income that topped analysts' estimates and revenue, lifted by price increases, that came in right around them; it also lifted its sales forecasts for the third quarter and full year. The company said its second-half operating margin will come in lower than its first-half figure, which it called typical and tied largely to the timing of expenses throughout the year." Netflix posts earnings beat as revenue grows 16% in second quarter https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/17/netflix-nflx-earnings-q2-2025.html
Sounds good to me...... Banks are thriving so far in Trump’s economy. Here’s what that means for markets and the consumer https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/17/banks-thriving-so-far-trump-economy-markets-consumer.html "Key Points Wall Street is humming thanks to a boom in stock and bond trading and a pickup in corporations acquiring competitors and taking out massive loans. At the same time, Main Street is holding up as the American consumer continues to spend, borrow and repay loans, according to reports this week from the largest U.S. banks. It makes for an unusually profitable environment for financial firms. The six biggest U.S. banks generated $39 billion in second-quarter profit, outstripping analysts’ expectations and collectively jumping more than 20% from core earnings a year ago. It’s a remarkable result after a tumultuous start to the quarter. The period began with shock and plunging markets on April 2 over President Donald Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs." MY COMMENT This year has been a wild ride. BUT....much of it is just media driven fear-mongering and turmoil. If you lived in a cave and just came out for the first time since the first of the year.....and looked at a chart of the SP500.....it would look pretty normal. We had a little correction that lasted for about....ONE MONTH......perhaps TWO....if you look at a chart. Other than that.....it has been a CLASSIC year for investors. We still have a long way to go to year end....but half way through we are BLOWING AWAY most of the expert predictions for where we will end up in 2025 in the SP500.
Ok....all the big averages are now RED. NO....there is nothing negative going on today. It is simply markets taking a bit of a pause after the recent gains. In general....there is NOTHING happening today. I will take it, and be happy....since my focus is in the future....not on the day to day. Just looking at the "ticker"......I assume that I am down at this moment....although I have not looked.
Looks like some of the FOMC are doing subtle job auditions now that they are sure that JP's term is going to end in the spring of 26'. Interesting the different takes some of the members have. This guy seems to think the job market has cracks developing, others suggest the economy is humming, and others think it's a wait and see approach. Many different views at the moment. If the FOMC as a whole stays consistent with their messaging....they aren't going to budge for quite some time. I'm not suggesting a right/wrong position. I think too much attention is given to the whole deal, just like it has been for the past couple of years. It will eventually work its way out one way or another, worrying about it isn't going to change much.
YES.....the good news continues....even though I consider this "poll" worthless. Inflation outlook tumbles to pre-tariff levels in latest University of Michigan survey https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/18/inf...-in-latest-university-of-michigan-survey.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers for July showed overall sentiment rose 1.8% from June to 61.8, exactly in line with the estimate and at the highest since February. On inflation, the outlook at both the one- and five-year horizons both tumbled, falling to their lowest levels since February. Consumers’ worst fears about tariff-induced inflation have receded, though they are still wary of price increases to come, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday. The university’s closely watched Survey of Consumers for July showed overall sentiment increased slightly, rising 1.8% from June to 61.8, exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate and at its highest level since February. Questions on current conditions and future expectations produced monthly gains as well. On inflation, the outlook at both the one- and five-year horizons both tumbled, falling to their lowest levels since February, before President Donald Trump made his “liberation day” tariff announcement on April 2. The one-year forecast plunged to 4.4%, down from 5% in June and well off the 6.6% level in May, which was the highest reading since late 1981. For the five-year outlook, the expectation slid to 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage point from June. “Both readings are the lowest since February 2025 but remain above December 2024, indicating that consumers still perceive substantial risk that inflation will increase in the future,” survey director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. Indeed, the respective outlooks in December were for 2.8% and 3%, largely in line with readings throughout 2024, before Trump took office in January. Worries peaked over inflation as Trump levied 10% across-the-board tariffs as well as so-called reciprocal duties that he has backtracked on pending negotiations. However, in recent days he has announced tariffs on individual products such as copper, raising the specter of future price increases. The readings are below their long-term averages, with the headline sentiment index down 6.9% from a year ago and 16% from December. The expectations reading fell 14.8% from July 2024, though the current conditions index was 6.5% higher." MY COMMENT A "consumer" survey of about a thousand people....if my memory is correct is basically worthless. What any consumer thinks about inflation or the economy is just NOISE.......and a basic PR exercise by the University. BUT....if you consider investor psychology and brain based behavior....I am sure this little survey will impact some investors behavior. I wonder how many people are STILL siting on the sidelines....having sold out just before or after April 2 and the tariff announcements? I am sure there are a lot.....and....most of them are STILL confused and trying to figure out how and why the markets have now passed them by.....as they sit and wait for some MAGIC ENTRY POINT....that is somehow going to pop up in the future and make itself known to them.
I agree Smokie........without getting into the "why" of what I think......although I think it is pretty obvious to readers........I do believe there is a significant chance that we will not see ANY rate cuts in 2025. On the other hand I can also see a good chance of 1 or 2 cuts in the fall starting in September. Basically the FED is......LOST IN SPACE. This is the worst situation for any FED. The best FED is predictable and steady in policy. This brings peace and quiet confidence to the markets and business. An unpredictable and erratic FED that seems to be LOST and CONFUSED is the worst thing for the economy and business.
Agree, the "consumer sentiment survey/reports" mentioned above are kind of silly. Not just this one, but many, many more as well. When you think about the number of reports and surveys that are blasted out monthly, it's no wonder that things get confused, revised, and even disproven over and over. Lol....you would think with the vast amount of information we would have a finger right on the pulse of everything economy wise. We dissect and analyze right down to the microscopic level. Minuscule percentage movements....and it is a headline leader. In truth, we actually learn much about nothing with these reports in a meaningful way. One, is because there are so many of them all of the time being released. It just creates a giant noise factory.....with nobody remembering or caring what the previous one even reported. It is not that "some" information is a bad thing or that we shouldn't track certain data, but there is such a thing as too much information. Yes, we have too much of it.
Agree again....Smokie. ALL this economic stuff...even if it was accurate...which it is not...it worthless to me as an investor. It is ALL short term. AND.....I NEVER....NEVER.....NEVER invest or make investment moves based on economic data. As to consumer surveys.....give me a break....I have absolutely ZERO interest in what some consumer poll says.
As to the REAL WORLD of investing....I have a small LOSS so far today. The markets are jumping around.....but the action is extremely MILD and DRIFTING......and it is all just flailing and churning....with little real result. Looks to me like a market that is just treading water.....with no real energy.....and trying to simply sit out the week and lock in the gains for the week. Looks like everyone simply took today off.......and is off doing other things. It is a classic day of.....ICING THE PUCK. (I had to be careful with my spelling above....I looked twice to make sure I did not have a typo or Freudian slip with the letter "F".) Of course....this sort of day sometimes ends with a....BANG.....with a sudden drop or a sudden gain at the close.....as traders, speculators, and short term investors load up or sell out.....going into the weekend. I dont really expect this to happen today....since there is really NO big news teed up right now and there is really NOTHING other than EARNINGS that will happen next week. We are facing a FED meeting the week after next....but what can the FED do that anyone will care about.....NOTHING.
You know I have never paid any attention to NFLX. BUT.....after seeing the earnings today....and looking at a chart and some numbers.....I am going to put it on my watch list. I need to get familiar with this company. Also on my watch list would be....META....if I could stand to own it and get past the total control that ZUK has with his special voting rights. As a SAFE big cap old dividend stock....PG.....would also be on my list. I doubt that I will buy any of the above....since I am happy with my current performance and holdings. PLUS...I have no money to invest any time in the near future.
I ended the day with a very small loss...but still a loss. Plus I got beat by the SP500 by....0.03%. Basically a NOTHING day for me but that is ok....since I racked up a nice big gain for the week.
