The Long Term Investor

Thanks Smokie. It was a very nice event. Western art with people from all over the country.....some very high end pieces. We did not buy anything...but it was a nice exhibit and auction afterwards.

I had a nice medium gain today to close out the week. Plus I beat the SP500 by 0.84%.

Thanks for making me some money today and taking care of the markets for me while I was gone.

 

Another week that was.

DOW year to date +8.12%
DOW five days +0.89%

SP500 year to date +12.20%
SP500 five days +1.33%

NASDAQ 100 year to date +14.98%
NASDAQ 100 five days +1.38%

NASDAQ year to date +14.84%
NASDAQ five days +1.54%

RUSSELL year to date +7.41%
RUSSELL five days +0.06%

I ended the week with my entire portfolio at +21.27%. Last week I ended at....+17.24%. A banner week for me.

Moving on from here.

 

I like this little article.

OpenAI’s spending spree is powering the tech industry. Oracle is the latest winner

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/13/ope...ering-much-of-tech-oracle-latest-example.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Oracle’s historic stock surge this week was fueled by a massive backlog, which is largely due to a deal with OpenAI.
• A week earlier, Broadcom shares soared after the company announced a $10 billion custom chip customer that analysts said was OpenAI.
• “While we love ChatGPT, OpenAI is still a not-for-profit limited in its ability to raise capital,” said Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, in an interview with CNBC.

Oracle’s historic stock surge this week marked the latest chapter in the story of a single private company that’s dominated the tech landscape for almost three years: OpenAI.

In Oracle’s blowout earnings report, OpenAI was a key catalyst due to a massive amount of money the artificial intelligence startup expects to spend on cloud computing technology in the coming years.

It’s becoming a familiar theme.

A week earlier, Broadcom shares popped almost 10% after the chipmaker and software vendor said it forged a $10 billion deal to build custom processors for a customer that analysts said was OpenAI.

Among tech’s megacaps, Microsoft has the closest link to OpenAI, having invested more than $13 billion in the company and serving as its key cloud partner for six years. Nvidia’s march to becoming the world’s most valuable company is intimately tied to OpenAI, as its graphics processing units (GPUs) sit at the heart of large language model development and are essential for running big AI workloads.

Those four companies alone — Oracle, Broadcom, Microsoft and Nvidia — have seen their combined market caps swell by over $4.5 trillion since OpenAI burst into public view with the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. And those gains are a big reason why the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have sustained sharp rallies, with both benchmarks closing at a record on Friday.

OpenAI’s outsized influence has some market experts understandably concerned. It remains a cash-burning startup that’s governed by a nonprofit parent.

The company’s $500 billion valuation is supported by a small number of investors betting that OpenAI will prevail in the face of hefty competition from the likes of Meta and Google as well as other highly-valued newcomers like Anthropic and any number of players out of China.

“While we love ChatGPT, OpenAI is still a not for profit limited in its ability to raise capital,” said Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, in an interview with CNBC.

Luria, who recommends holding Oracle shares, dug into the company’s numbers as the stock was in the midst of a 36% jump on Wednesday, its biggest gain since 1992.

In its quarterly earnings report late Tuesday, Oracle said it signed four multibillion-dollar contracts with three different customers during the period. One of those was with OpenAI, which said previously that it agreed to develop 4.5 gigawatts of U.S. data center capacity with Oracle.

Investors knew, based on a filing with the SEC in June, that Oracle signed a $30 billion cloud contract with an unnamed company that’s set to begin in two years. CNBC confirmed a Wall Street Journal report from Wednesday that OpenAI has agreed to spend $300 billion in computing power over about five years, starting in 2027.

In the two trading days after its historic pop, Oracle’s stock retreated, dropping more than 6% on Thursday and another 5% on Friday, as other investors began sharing Luria’s concerns.

The new revelations about OpenAI’s massive cloud commitment provided a clearer sense of Oracle’s expanding backlog.Oracle said its performance obligations, a measure of contracted revenue that has not yet been recognized, surged 359% from a year earlier to to $455 billion.

Luria said the concentration of Oracle’s backlog with a single customer “significantly reduces” enthusiasm, particularly if “more than 90% came from OpenAI.”

Oracle didn’t respond to a request for comment.
OpenAI has made big commitments to several other cloud providers, including CoreWeave and Google

, and reportedly plans to put $19 billion toward Stargate, a project President Donald Trump announced in January to bolster AI infrastructure investments in the U.S. Stargate is a joint venture between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, which is separately leading a planned $40 billion investment in OpenAI.

Luria said the takeaway is that “Sam Altman has the gumption to sign very large checks without needing to worry about whether those can ever be cashed.”

OpenAI declined to comment.

While OpenAI will be losing money for the foreseeable future, the company is expecting revenue growth to continue at a breakneck pace. After hitting $10 billion in annual recurring revenue in June, OpenAI is on pace for that number to reach $125 billion by 2029, CNBC confirmed.

And on Thursday, OpenAI got a step closer to formalizing its transition to a for-profit entity. The company said its nonprofit parent will continue to have oversight over the business and will own an equity stake of more than $100 billion as the commercial entity becomes a public benefit corporation.

OpenAI needs the restructuring to take place by year-end in order to secure the entirety of the $40 billion from its latest financing round.

For Oracle, the massive increase in OpenAI spending has landed the company within shouting distance of the trillion-dollar club, which currently includes eight tech peers. Oracle’s market cap climbed to about $930 billion on Wednesday before retreating to $830 billion to close the week.

Byron Deeter, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, told CNBC’s “Money Movers” that he’s still skeptical of Oracle’s prospects in AI. The company has spent years trying to play catchup in cloud infrastructure, where it trails Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

Deeter said Oracle remains a “B-level hyperscaler” without meaningful positions in AI software or chips.

“Two days ago, we all thought Oracle was essentially nowhere in AI,” Deeter said, following the earnings report. “They announce this mega-deal, people think they’re the next great hyperscaler – and I don’t buy that part.”"

MY COMMENT

I tend to agree with the final paragraph above.....I dont buy the Oracle ONE DAY boom. They are an ok company and are no doubt going to benefit from the continuing AI boom. But....I dont see them as a big player at the top levels. My preference is still.....MSFT and AMZN.....for cloud investment.

When or if OpenAI becomes a for profit public company.....it will be a huge feeding frenzy to buy the shares.

 

As to the above.

OpenAI says nonprofit parent will own equity stake in company of over $100 billion

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/ope...to-own-stake-in-company-over-100-billion.html

 

AND.

OpenAI’s deal with Microsoft could pave the way for a potential IPO

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-deal-microsoft-could-pave-155329067.html

 

It has been a long time since I posted my first three posts on this board. Over that time NOTHING has really changed in my investing style or philosophy. I am going to combine those first three early posts and repeat them HERE. I think it is important to know where I am coming from when I post and I dont know how many people reading this thread have gone back to look at earlier posts.

From October 2018:

POST NUMBER ONE

"I am new to this board. I am NOT new to internet stock posting, however, having previously posted for over 25 years on another site under the same thread title. Over the years that forum degenerated into just politics, social discussion and general gossip and chat. As a result I made the decision to eliminate my LONG TERM INVESTING thread (the highest viewed investing thread on the board) and begin the search for a new INVESTING discussion home.

I will post more over the next few weeks on my background and investing history. Needless to say, I am a LONG TERM INVESTOR and have been for 50+ years. I have invested through the bear market of the 1970's, the stagflation time of the early 1980's, the Regan boom, held through the "flash crash", through the dot-com era and crash. I have invested up to and through the CMO and derivative mess of 2008 to 2009 and continuously up to the present.

My approach is LONG TERM investing in a concentrated portfolio of, usually, 10-15 individual stocks and three mutual funds. I DO NOT believe in or use Market Timing, Technical Analysis, or Trading. My approach is basic Fundamental Analysis combined with my experience, education, and investing intuition. I focus on the BIG CAP side of the markets and hold my stocks and funds for years until they no longer fit my criteria for anticipated growth.

I have two SEPARATE investing goals:

1. Beat the SP500 annually.

2. Achieve a LONG TERM total return of at least 10%.

I have achieved both goals over the LONG TERM. BUT.....due to my financial situation, I never get greedy. I am content to simply double my money over 7.2 years (rule of 72's). In spite of my age my stock market money is and will continue to be LONG TERM for the remainder of my life since I am not dependent on that money.

I currently manage a number of family accounts as well as a family trust. All of the accounts are set up the same way and in the same investments. Basically on a very MICRO, MICRO level I run a "family office", doing the investing, taxes, estate planing, legal, and other work for extended family.

Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed:

STOCKS:

(EDITED TO MY CURRENT HOLDINGS)

Alphabet Inc (Google Class A shares)
Amazon
Apple
Costco
Home Depot
Nvidia
Micrsoft
PLTR


MUTUAL FUNDS:


(EDITED TO MY CURRENT HOLDINGS)

SP500 Index Fund
Fidelity Contra Fund"


POST NUMBER TWO

"To continue my "little" introduction to this forum:

As a LONG TERM, fully invested, all the time, investor I do not trade, I hold for the LONG TERM. I do NOT sell unless a holding starts to under-perform my expectations and lose long term growth potential. In an average year I will usually make ZERO trades.

My portfolio (see above) was started many many years ago with half the funds put into the stock side of the portfolio and half the funds put in the mutual fund side of the portfolio. Over the years I allow the investments to run as they wish and I DO NOT re-balance. Currently the stock side is about 60% of the portfolio and the funds about 40%. My personal belief is.....much of the "stuff" you see in the media now about re-balancing and diversification, at least how practiced by the majority of investors, is simply busy work and killing returns for the majority of investors. I believe people using the current thinking are re-balancing and diversifying themselves to death in their investing and killing their returns. The emphasis and doubling up of holdings in the fund and stock side is INTENTIONAL.

Over the years I have held many of the BIG name stocks, stocks like EXXON, GE, Colgate, P&G, General Mills, MSFT, Cisco, etc, etc, etc since my focus investing is......BIG CAP, ICONIC BRAND, WORLD WIDE, AMERICAN, GREAT MANAGEMENT, MARKET DOMINANT, companies. I do NOT do International investing....ever, or developing country investing. I consider my BIG CAP, AMERICAN, companies that dominate around the world with their products and business model to by my International exposure. I NEVER invest in auto companies, drug companies, banks, airlines, insurance, or financial companies.

I am NOT afraid to take a chance once in a while with a BIG single stock investment IF....and only IF...I see a probability (yes probability, not possibility) of a once in a lifetime company. For example, I invested ALL of my liquid cash assets in MSFT in 1990 and held through 2002. Another example of a once in a lifetime company that I have invested in is AMZN. I am EXTREMELY clinical in my investing and decisions about investing. I see "the markets" and "indexes" for what they are....individual businesses. As an "old time" investor, financial reports are my main source of information and I definately know how to read a balance sheet, Income statement, cash flow statement, etc, etc.

Anyway.....to be continued:"

POST NUMBER THREE

"THANK YOU TomB16.

Is everyone else here a trader? Or what? In any event I welcome ANYONE to post on this thread regardless of their investing style. One of my mantras is......if it works for you do it.....ignore everyone else. My style works for me and has for a long time. But, if you are a Technical Investor, or Trader, or Market Timer and it works for you, than do it. All investing is personal. What works for me may not work for you. That is why this thread is NOT intended as investment advice. First, this is the internet, there is no way for anyone to verify what I am saying. Same for all others on this board. In addition, it is impossible to give advice to total strangers. So take what you want from this thread, but it is NOT intended as specific investment advice to others since I do not know you or your situation in the slightest.

Now, to continue this lengthy introduction:

I intend to post actual results once in a while as I go along. I also intend to post any trades or changes in my portfolio (above) as they are made. This serves as a historical investing record for me and will serve as somewhat of a verification of what I am saying and posting for others.

Outside of investing my relevant background is......I am a college graduate, grad school in business and law school grad (although I am not licensed and do NOT practice law). I am approximately 70 years old. I founded, owned, and ran a small business in my earlier life. I sold my business and retired at age 49 and have not worked in day job since. Over the past 20 years I have primarily lived off my investing and personal assets. My retirement at age 49 was made possible by my investing during my business years.

I started stock investing as a child in the late 1950's and a teen in the 1960's. My investing education started with my mother who had a portfolio of individual stocks and a few funds during that time span. It was extremely RARE for anyone in those years to own stocks or funds. It was the era of round lot trades and having to go down to to brokers office to watch the ticker if you wanted to get info on a day to day basis. It was the era of the Wall Street journal and later for me the Investors Business Daily newspaper which was more comprehensive than the WSJ. There were no 401K, no IRA. The changes in investing over that time span have been massive.

One constant over that time that has remained the same is human psychology and the ability of humans to screw things up by making them way more complex than they really need to be. Actually for the VAST MAJORITY of people today about all that is needed in terms of investing is to simply put ALL investing funds and retirement money in a simple SP500 INDEX FUND and let if ride LONG TERM. Research tells us that the great majority of professional money managers will rarely beat the SP500 on a consistent basis. Forget all the charts, quant data, Technical voodoo, etc, etc, etc. Just look at your results and if you are not beating the SP500 at least half the time (hardly anyone is if they are honest) than why beat your head against the wall. Just put it in a SP500 Index fund and forget about it, enjoy life.

So.........

I will post results once in a while.
I will post any moves or trades.
I will post relevant articles and information, with discussion.
I will do my usual stream of consciousness "stuff".
I might make a few predictions once in a while for fun.

Much of the "stuff" that I might post is going to be short term oriented. Market events, historic happenings, recent data, short term results, political events that impact investing. But, all this "stuff" in combination impacts LONG TERM INVESTING. It also impacts the ability of people to stay in the markets and get the benefit of long term compounding.

As for right now.....the markets are BOOMING. I believe we are in for a historic year end rally in stocks. I would not be surprised to see a gain of 8-10% minimum between now and the end of the year. For those that lived through the Regan tax cuts and boom years, which extended all the way to the dot com collapse, this is deja-vu all over again. For those too young to remember that time span, hopefully you will learn something about economics, taxes, business, and investing over the next few years."

MY COMMENT

I think it is important for anyone reading this thread to understand my background and BIASES.

After years of posting on here I often don't go into as much detail on topics as I have in the past....it just seems to be repetitious to me.

There is MUCH CONTENT over this entire thread that is STILL extremely relevant to any long term investor. I do discuss many investing issues in much more detail in prior posts and most of what was put up in the past is STILL extremely true and relevant to long term investors.

YES....there are a lot of pages in this thread.....but....I invite all to explore that content.

Like my portfolio page.....I will repeat this post once in a while....for any new readers that have not looked at the start to this thread.

 

As to the OpenAI posts above......it will be interesting to see if they do an IPO at some point. It will probably not be any-tine soon.

BUT....if you own MSFT you do have a stake in OpenAI....as a large backer of the company.

 

The week to come.

Fed's rate decision looms as markets hover near records

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds...ecords-what-to-watch-this-week-121006200.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks notched another week of record highs as investors bet on a Fed interest rate cut next week.

The central bank is widely expected to prioritize a cooling labor market even as sticky inflation complicates the picture, with investors overwhelmingly betting on a quarter-point cut. Futures markets put the probability at north of 90%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

That sets the stage for a pivotal week in markets, where the Fed's call could determine whether the rally has more room to run.

The three major indexes closed mixed on Friday, but all logged solid weekly gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose nearly 1% for its first winning week in three weeks, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) turned in their best weekly performances since early August. Treasury yields hovered near recent lows, while gold (GC=F) set fresh records as markets braced for a potential Fed pivot.

Beyond the Fed, the calendar brings a weekly update on jobless claims and fresh manufacturing data, offering more signals on the strength of the economy.

Mortgage rates will also be in focus after posting their biggest weekly drop in a year this week. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.35% from 6.5% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac.

Meanwhile, earnings season is winding down, but a handful of bellwethers remain. FedEx (FDX) is the main event, as results from the delivery giant are often viewed as a proxy for the health of global trade and the broader US economy.

Investors will also get updates from homebuilder Lennar (LEN), food giant General Mills (GIS), and restaurant operator Darden (DRI). Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which has made headlines in recent weeks over its back-and-forth rebrand, rounds out a more subdued docket.

The Fed's big decision

The Fed's interest rate decision, along with Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference, will be the key economic event of the week. Alongside its policy decision, the Fed will release its quarterly "dot plot" — a snapshot of policymakers' projections for the path of interest rates.

In June, officials penciled in two rate cuts for 2025, although the forecasts revealed a more divided committee. Seven members saw no cuts at all, compared with four in March. Powell acknowledged the divergence at the time, stressing that "right now it's just a forecast in a very foggy time."

Investors will be looking for more clarity this week, but the backdrop isn't straightforward.

Tariffs are increasingly feeding into inflation after US customs duties surged to a record $29.5 billion in August following President Trump's new "reciprocal" levies.

August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed stubborn price pressures across categories such as food, vehicles, and household goods. Coffee, beef, and produce all spiked. Car parts, furniture, and even hardware equipment also moved higher. But not all of the stickiness is tariff-related. Services inflation remains elevated as well, with airline fares surging nearly 6%.

At the same time, labor market weakness has become harder to ignore. Jobless claims just hit their highest level in nearly four years. Payrolls grew by only 22,000 in August, while government revisions also revealed that nearly 1 million fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March 2025 than initially reported.

That leaves Powell facing a difficult balance: Cut too slowly and risk a deeper labor downturn, or move too quickly and reignite inflation.

Fresh consumer data will add to the picture for policymakers. Tuesday brings the August retail sales report, a key gauge of household demand.

Wall Street's AI-fueled bull case

Amid that backdrop, Main Street is flashing caution. AAII's latest survey found just 28% of investors identifying as bullish and nearly half as bearish — a gloomy read even as stocks hover at record highs.

Wall Street, by contrast, is leaning into optimism. Strategists at Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo, Barclays, and Yardeni Research all raised their S&P 500 targets this week, citing resilient earnings and the still-surging AI investment cycle as the backbone of the market’s next leg higher.

Deutsche Bank lifted its 2025 forecast to 7,000, the most bullish among this week's upgrades. Wells Fargo set a year-end target of 6,650 and sees the benchmark climbing to 7,200 by 2026. Barclays raised its 2025 outlook to 6,450. Yardeni Research boosted its year-end target to 6,800, assigning a 25% chance of a "melt-up" to 7,000 by December.

The mix of sticky inflation, weakening jobs data, and lofty valuations has sharpened focus on the rally's vulnerabilities, particularly its reliance on a narrow band of megacap tech stocks.

Wells Fargo acknowledged the presence of market "froth" but argued the bull run can continue as long as AI capital spending remains intact. Barclays strategist Venu Krishna echoed that view, highlighting strong demand for data center infrastructure and calling fears of AI disruption in software "overblown."

That AI momentum was underscored this week by Oracle (ORCL), which saw its stock surge more than 30% on Wednesday after the software giant projected its AI-driven cloud revenue would soar to $144 billion by fiscal 2030. The move reinforced Wall Street's conviction that artificial intelligence remains the defining investment theme of the cycle.

As Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon put it: "Music stops when AI capex stops. Enjoy the party.""

MY COMMENT

I have recently said we are in a time of EPIC conditions going forward over the next 6-12 months for stock investors. EVERYTHING that I can see is lined up nicely. A RARE golden time span....at least in my view.

I believe I can see.....the greatest investing environment of my lifetime....going forward over the time span above. Call it investor intuition.

The FED will be cutting......we are at the very start of a 10-15 year economic revolution as a result of AI...and we are now in an era....at least for the next 3 years..... of lower taxes, reduced regulation and reduced government bureaucracy. Earnings going forward are going to kill it.

Sure....there will be corrections along the way......and the usual media frenzy of fear mongering....but I truly believe we are in for an amazing ride going forward for the rest of 2025 and well into.... if not the full year.... of 2026.

Of course...."belief" and feelings"....are not investing fundamentals......but this is my VISION of where we are heading.

At least for me....I dont have to be right. I will simply be fully invested over that time span regardless.

AND......as usual I will be way out there.......far out of sight of land.........riding the wave.

 

I like this little article.

Putting Stagflation Claims in Actual Context
There is an easy way to test the latest claims.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e.../putting-stagflation-claims-in-actual-context

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Is stagflation setting in? That question seems to be on many minds, at least per the coverage of Thursday’s US economic data releases, which showed weekly jobless claims hitting their highest level since 2021 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate accelerating to 2.9% y/y in August from 2.7% in July. The implication: With prices heating up and businesses cutting back, the US economy is entering a maddening stretch where growth can’t help households overcome the pain of fast-rising prices. But this looks rather hasty once you dive past surface narratives. The US economy isn’t headwind-free, but stagflation chatter looks like a false fear—a brick in this bull market’s wall of worry.

For a general claim to be true, it has to hold up when you look at the data in context. Now, where jobless claims are concerned, noting that 263,000 new claims last week is the highest since October 2021 might seem like context.[ii] The vision it creates—that people are getting laid off at the same rate they were during the pandemic—might seem to support the case for things turning bad now. But there are a couple problems with this approach. One, “highest since” or “worst since” type claims don’t really tell you anything, since the comparison point is inherently arbitrary. Two, October 2021 is at the tail end of a post-lockdown job market recovery, a return to general job market stability. Heck, we recall everyone saying things were rocking and rolling then, as a hot jobs market was enabling a “great resignation” where people were free to quit the daily grind, relocate to their dream ZIP code and instantly find a better job at higher pay. That always seemed far-fetched to us, but it is odd now that those consuming economic news are implicitly encouraged to see this as a bad comparison point when cheer reigned in labor markets then.

We think a better way to get context is to look at a reading in light of the series’ entire history to determine whether it is indeed so bad. The weekly initial jobless claims dataset begins in January 1967. So we downloaded the whole series, did some quick math and determined the monthly average is 361,687.[iii] That is almost 100,000 higher than this allegedly troublesome result for last week. So worry over this seems like recency bias. People anchor to the lower layoffs before the present, so any uptick looks bad. But that is a behavioral error—not a sign things are turning awful now.

Mind you, we aren’t dismissing the pain and hardship for those receiving pink slips. And with output and investment-oriented data hitting some speedbumps earlier this year, a lagging labor market hiccup isn’t a surprise. But also, we now know total nonfarm payrolls weakened this summer, even dipping in June. So an uptick in joblessness isn’t news to cold-hearted stocks.

The inflation readings look similarly benign in longer-term context. A lot of today’s angst focused on the month-over-month increase in core CPI, which excludes food and energy, of 0.3%.[iv] Supposedly, this is evidence that tariffs are getting solidified in inflation data with more to come. We have seen plenty of tales of businesses passing reciprocal tariffs to consumers as they took effect last month. There is no denying that. But as we covered last month, rising prices in some goods isn’t the same thing as broad inflation, which spans the whole spectrum of goods and services. Tellingly, August’s month-over-month read is bang on the average since this dataset begins in 1957. Prices of some goods are always rising while others fall. The reasons always morph. Tariffs just happen to be in the dock now.

Another thing. Core CPI includes all goods and services bar energy and food. Most of it is services, which the shelter category dominates. And what was a primary contributor to August’s rise? You guessed it. Shelter. Part of that is rent and part is owner’s equivalent rent, which is the hypothetical amount a homeowner would pay to rent their own home. It is a made-up cost no one pays. And it is a lagging indicator of home prices, which are up on a long-running housing shortage that far predates tariffs. Granted, tariffs don’t make construction easier, given they distort supply and costs of necessary materials, but that isn’t why shelter costs rose in August. And that, too, is a long-running trend, not sneaking up on stocks.

So no, we don’t think jobless claims and CPI combine into stagflation. When put in proper context, we see two pretty benign readings that aren’t a surprise given extant economic conditions. And crucially, the surprise power for stocks appears slim to none. Conditions aren’t perfect, but stocks don’t need perfect. They just need reality to go a tad better than folks expect or, in this case, fear.

Which makes stagflation talk bullish. False fears lower expectations, raising the potential for big surprise power. This is why they are bricks in the wall of worry. Stocks climb on them. So let others fear stagflation while you keep your eye on the prize."

MY COMMENT

Indirectly or directly.....this little article is documenting.....media fear-mongering. Taking data out of context and trying to create a narrative. Of course many in the media probably have ZERO understanding or knowledge of actual business context or economic history. They just repeat the same old BS that they hear from other writers. they jump on the click bandwagon.....for their own self interest.

It is a reflection of.....LAZY JOURNALISM.....and I am being very charitable using the term "journalism.

YES.....the economy and the bull market are just fine.

 

I like the phrase above....."COLD-HEARTED STOCKS". It goes along with the phrase....cold-hearted investors. Or people that only care about money.

Well investing and investors are just the opposite. We are a bunch of people that care the most. We do what we do to provide for family and our future. In fact we "care" the most. We take care of our own and we ensure that our loved ones are secure and taken care of....in a hard world.

That is the vision and driving force for most little investors.....achieving security.

 

I agree completely.

How Old Is This Bull Market? Younger Than You Think

https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/how-old-is-this-bull-market-younger-than-you-think/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"“To see what is in front of one’s nose is a constant struggle.” George Orwell

The bull market rolls on, as the S&P 500 has now made 24 new all-time highs and is up 12% for the year, a long way from down 15% back in early April after the Liberation Day meltdown.

The bull market is on track to turn three in a month, and it’s no secret we’ve been in the bullish camp for many years now. But what about looking forward? In today’s blog, I’ll look at some of the clues that I believe strongly suggest that the bull market may have plenty of time left.

Age Is Just a Number

We didn’t know it at the time, but a vicious nine-month 25% bear market ended on October 12, 2022. Nearly three years later stocks are up close to 85%, but the big question is how much time is left? Of course, no one really knows, but we would side with this bull market lasting a lot longer than many out there expect.

Here’s a famous photo of John Cena and Jason Earles, who played the brother in Hannah Montana. The picture was taken back in 2009 when Cena joined the show. What makes this picture so famous is both were 31 years old! Which brings up the question, is this bull market younger than we think like the brother to Hanna or it is older like John Cena?



Happy Birthday
Here’s a chart we’ve shared many times the past few years, but we wanted to share it again. At the start of this year we noted why the third year of bull markets tended to be choppy and frustrating, which is why we were on record to expect some volatility at some point during the first half of the year. Well, we saw that and then some with the near bear market in April, but history says once you can get past that choppy third year, things tend to get better.



I’ve said many times that bull markets are like cruise ships—once they get moving they are very hard to stop, and very hard to turn around. Well, bull markets are similar. We found five other bull markets that made it past their second birthday going back 50 years and the average one made it eight years, with the shortest an impressive five years. The good news is the returns in year four tend to be quite impressive as well, something to look forward to if you are bullish. Or to paraphrase what Orwell said, we are in a bull market and it is right in front of our noses, but that can be hard to see sometimes.



New Highs Aren’t Everywhere Yet

Yes, large cap US stocks have done very well, thanks to technology stocks leading the way. But peeling back the onion shows that many other markets still haven’t even made a new all-time high yet. We’ve long said that most areas of the market would need to hit a new high before this bull market likely ends, which means potential for more gains if the number of markets hitting new highs does actually broaden out.

Small caps haven’t made a new high since November 2021 for example , while transports have lagged as well. Although we still like large caps over small caps, there is nothing wrong with more new highs across the board as small caps and transports join the party. Looking at the two charts below you have to ask yourself, if we are in fact in a true bull market, wouldn’t these areas still have plenty of runway to move higher?







The US has had an incredible run, but looking around the globe gives a picture that this global bull market could only just be starting. Yes, we like the US a lot still, but we’ve moved more into Developed International in the models we run for our Carson Partners, as having a more diversified global portfolio this stage of the cycle makes a lot of sense.

Here’s the FTSE All-World ex US Index Fund and it shows the rest of the world isn’t up all that much since the peak in 2007. Many global markets are just this year breaking out above their 2007 levels, suggesting this global bull market could just be getting started.



Thanks for reading and for an awesome discussion about the economy, this bull market, and more, be sure to check out the latest Facts vs Feelings. Sure, I’m biased, but we did this one live from Excell and had two amazing guests. Enjoy!"

MY COMMENT

I put the start of the BULL MARKET as about June/July of 2022. I noted in this threat at that time that the SP500 drop had stopped. We retested the low in October....for about a week.... of that year and quickly started back up again.

I put the start of the nasty BEAR MARKET as about.....January 1, 2022. It was basically over about 6 months later. the media and investors in general began to notice that it was over by October 2022....9 months later. BUT....if you were paying attention you saw the start in the early summer.

 

FED week.....who cares. The FED is now irrelevant. Although there will be some drama this week over the amount of the rate cut.

This is the beginning of the end for the current FED. The rate cutting will carry us into the new year and we will have a new FED chair in about May/June of 2026.

 

China....our great friend is now blatantly attacking NVIDIA. this is not the action of regulators....this is the action of the CHINESE GOVERNMENT at the highest level. It is driven by politics and quest for power. It has one purpose....to harm our government....to harm our country....to harm and impair our business and economy. It is a HUGE warning......for AMERICAN business that is operating in China.

SCREW CHINA....anyway. In the end they are screwing themselves by isolating themselves from USA companies and tech. A bad thing for them in the end and a very good thing for us.

China Targets Nvidia Over 2020 Deal, Straining Trade Talks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-finds-nvidia-violated-antitrust-081147850.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- China ruled that Nvidia Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations.

The US chipmaker was found in violation of antitrust regulations after the acquisition of networking gear maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd., the State Administration for Market Regulation said after concluding a preliminary investigation. Nvidia’s shares slipped about 1% in US trading.

The surprise announcement emerged with US and Chinese officials heading into a second day of wide-ranging negotiations in Madrid over tariffs, which could shape the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. Over the weekend, China also said it was launching an anti-dumping investigation targeting a type of semiconductor made by US companies including Texas Instruments Inc. Its shares fell as much as 4.7%.

The regulator didn’t specify on Monday what sort of remedies it would seek from Nvidia, adding it will investigate the company further. Nvidia didn’t immediately respond to an emailed request for comment outside of regular office hours.

On Monday, President Donald Trump said he would speak with China’s Xi Jinping on Friday after lower-level negotiations between the two countries. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had discussed the poor timing of the Nvidia investigation, but had agreed on a framework to keep ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok app running in the US, another long-running conflict between Washington and Beijing.

Nvidia has this year found itself thrust into the center of delicate negotiations between Beijing and Washington, because of its central role in driving future technologies including artificial intelligence. The company dominates the market for the chips essential to building and operating AI services at companies from Meta Platforms Inc. to DeepSeek.

In December, Beijing opened a probe into Nvidia’s acquisition of Mellanox, taking aim at the world’s most valuable company. Beijing gave approval for the $7 billion acquisition deal four years ago, on the condition that Nvidia not discriminate against Chinese companies.

The US government then implemented regulations that banned Nvidia from selling its most advanced AI chips to Chinese companies, including the H100, because of what it called national security concerns. Nvidia redesigned its chips at least twice so they would comply with the American regulations and it could sell them into the country.

Monday’s initial ruling comes weeks after the Trump administration agreed to allow Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. to sell some of their sought-after AI chips to Chinese companies. However, Beijing has since pushed local companies and agencies to avoid Nvidia’s H20 accelerator, citing security concerns.

It’s unclear what impact the Beijing regulator’s announcement would exert on talks in Madrid. The first day of negotiations lasted almost six hours, according to a senior Treasury official, spanning topics from TikTok to trade and the global economy.

ByteDance’s popular app faces a deadline this week to reach an agreement to ensure it continues operations in the US.

Officials were also expected to lay the groundwork for a potential in-person meeting between Trump and Xi as soon as October, when they’re scheduled to attend a summit in South Korea."

MY COMMENT

This is a pure power play by communist China.....the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship. I will celebrate every time I see an article about their FAILING and SINKING economy over the coming months.

They are in HUGE economic trouble right now. their economy is in a free-fall and heading to Japanese style DEFLATION. GREAT...bring it on.

There is NO FUTURE for NVDA in China anyway. China will simply play along till they have stolen all the tech and have set up their own manufacturing.....as usual.