The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    LOL….I feel like I have stopped off at a bar….and do not know any of the regulars or history….they are all having a conversation and I am awkwardly out of place….:D
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    I feel like Discord is still at the top of the list (even higher than reddit and X) for the most used social platforms for people nowadays. I know a ton of people use it for trading and investing chats. I think because of its instant nature of communication. It really exploded during the covid pandemic.
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    No worries haha.

    Yeah there is some big time history with this community going back to 2006 which was about when this community first got it started. I first arrived in November of that year. The community was really thriving back then with hundreds of posters on and thousands of posts being made per day/week. Those were some great times. Missed them big time ngl.
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    Anyway, please don’t mind me guys. Would really like you all to get back to investing/market discussions in here. I “think” for now everything will remain in place. The site “should” remain online for now. Once there is more info from either Gil or myself will be sure to pass it along here. For now, please don’t mind me and resume the regular investing discussions here.

    Hope you all have been doing very well. Again my apologies here if I worried anyone with all of this site stuff. I’m just truly concerned for the community here because I genuinely care. That is all. Carry on.
     
  5. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    I think RTN has a good point. It doesn’t take much to drop in and clear the air or provide an update.

    Unfortunately,, this is going to be a dark cloud until it is resolved to some extent.
     
  6. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    I find this part interesting and a bit odd. I suppose in this day and age it might be normal?? Kind of struck me as odd, but maybe not?
     
  7. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I am sure of that. Not much my style, but being older, I do get the popular instant type stuff. Nobody wants to type out a discussion, such as we do.

    I am a member of one other site, respectfully will not name it here. It kind of fits my style, but is much, much more moderated and regulated.
     
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  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    Same here smokie.

    I used to actually admin a fairly popular stock discord community some years ago. It was a very successful chat community but extremely overwhelming lol. The instant chats were kinda nice sometimes can’t deny. But I’m with you there. I prefer the forum format much more over chat rooms personally. For me, it’s just so much easier to follow the discussions. Chatrooms are just far too fast to follow for my liking. Forums are the best imo. But sadly, it seems like forum sites have been dying since the early days of the 2000s. As you and Rui mentioned, things like Reddit, X and Discord are taking it all away from forums. Unfortunately. :(
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    Can’t believe this coming week is the final “full” trading week of Q3. This year really is going by so quick! :eek:

    Is there anything noteworthy on anyone’s radar going into this week? Looks like we got all of the FED rate stuff out of the way (for now).

    Earnings season basically done (well mostly) until next month/quarter. I think we get the next nonfarm jobs report until the following week. Seems like it’ll be a mostly light week for market news unless I am missing something (probably am lol). I admittedly haven’t been totally engaged in the markets for a while now. Just getting my feet wet again after a long summer hiatus myself.

    Hope you all have a great final “full” trading week of the month and quarter this week! :thumbsup:
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    btw, looks like i might’ve caught a bug. been feeling a little under the weather since last night.. seems a bug has been going around here lately. hopefully not covid. wish you all a great week. think i’ll be in and out kind of sporadically this week. ugh..
     
  11. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Oh we will soon hear some noise about the annual government shutdown. We deal with this every year about this time it seems.

    I don’t think either side could dislike each other much more than they currently do. They may get a deal as usual, but maybe not.

    How much the markets will care….who knows.
     
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  12. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    RTN….what are your thoughts on the NVDA stake in Intel?? Or some of the chip restrictions/deals that have been in the headlines lately?
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    It’s really quite amazing to me just how well the markets have bounced back from the tariff tantrum lows back in April. Will admit I didn’t think we’d see this kind of a rip in the markets so quickly. I did think we might have a chance to hit these current levels by year end, but to do it in September of all months? This month has had quite the historical history of extreme volatility. But so far this year and the last have been anything but.

    And we’re heading into Q4 soon which has historically been a very positive quarter for the markets with all of the major holidays soon approaching.

    I keep thinking things are getting a bit stretched and overbought on the upside but the market just keeps grinding higher and higher haha.

    I feel like some digestion of these highs would be really healthy. Either through a price pullback or a correction through time (sideways action for a while).

    This has definitely been one of the most resilient markets I have witnessed in my near 25 years being involved in markets in some form or another.

    I think I read somewhere that this has been one of the most power rallies off of a major low in history.

    Isn’t the Nasdaq something like 50% off the April lows? If someone can confirm that one. That’s actually really insane! :eek:
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HEY...BIG BEAR. I second you taking over this site if Gil is not able to handle it any longer. There is a core here that would be easier to build from versus a new build.

    Are new members still able to sign up here?
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    By the way everyone.....please no conspiracy thoughts.....I will be gone a lot next week.

    A lunchtime board meeting on Tuesday. Going to Dallas on Wednesday. To Houston on Thursday. Into the studio about mid morning on Friday.

    So I might miss a lot next week.....but....I am still here.
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    oh wow thx so much for your vote of confidence here w!! it really means a great deal to me coming from you especially. ;)

    it does also unfortunately appear as if new user registrations have been disabled here. from the looks of it, it appears like the last person who signed up on this board was over a year ago now. wow.

    i will be sure to bring this up with gil in my private convos that i’m having with him because i think it’s super imperative to have user sign up’s being accepted for this site.

    also thanks for the heads up with you being a little busy this week. yeah i may also be missing in action a bit this week myself because of feeling under the weather.

    here’s to staying safe w! hope you will have a wonderful week and thank you again for your vote of confidence in me taking on stockaholics if gil is unable me to continue doing so. really made my day to hear this tbh.

    have a great week everyone and hope you all make some mad $$$ ! :)
     
  17. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Lol….Just think, you just never know what you might miss….:)
     
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Active Member

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    What to Expect in Markets This Week: Inflation Data; Fed Speakers; Earnings from Micron, Costco

    Key Takeaways
    • The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is due on Friday, as well as the latest GDP update, home sales data, and September consumer sentiment earlier in the week.

    • Several Fed officials will deliver remarks in the wake of the central bank's move last week to cut interest rates for the first time this year.

    • Micron, Costco, AutoZone and CarMax lead the firms on this week’s corporate reporting calendar.
    The Fed is back to cutting rates. What'll it do next? We'll learn more this week.

    After last week's decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time this year, market watchers will be eager for clues about whether more cuts are in store in the coming months. Several data points due this week should offer insight. Stocks ended last week on the rise, with all three major U.S. indexes finishing at record highs.

    The Fed’s preferred inflation measure comes as policymakers watch for evidence that tariffs are working their way into consumer prices. A string of Fed officials will deliver remarks over the course of the week investors will parse for hints about the possibility of further cuts at this year's two remaining meetings.

    The final revision to second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will also be in focus, as will data on home sales, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment. Traders will be watching for earnings from chipmaker Micron, retailer Costco, and used car seller CarMax.

    Inflation Data Follows Fed Move on Interest Rates

    The Personal Consumption Expenditures index for August is set to be released on Friday. PCE inflation held relatively steady in July after accelerating in June. Friday's report will be the first reading on prices since Fed Chair Jerome Powell warnedthat elevated inflation and a weakening labor market give policymakers "no risk-free path" forward.

    The Fed has projected that it’s likely to cut interest rates at upcoming meetings, but Powell said officials will be closely watching economic readings before making further moves. Several Fed officials are on the speaking calendar this week, including Powell and the Fed's newest member, Stephen Miran.

    Economists on Thursday will get the final revision to second-quarter GDP, which was revised higher in August. Data for both new and pending home sales in August comes amid a decline in mortgage rates in recent weeks. Data on consumer sentiment, jobless claims, and durable-goods orders are also on tap.

    Micron Earnings Come as AI Demand Remains Strong

    On the corporate calendar, Micron Technology is scheduled to report results on Tuesday. The chipmaker in June reported record quarterly revenue amid booming demand for its memory chips from data center clients. Analysts are generally bullish on Micron stock, which hit a record high last week.

    Costco is set to report its quarterly results on Thursday. In May, the bulk retailer reported sales rose by 8% amid continued growth in same-store sales. Recent retail sales data suggested that consumers are still spending. CarMax’s earnings on the same day will provide insight into the state of the used-car market.

    Auto parts seller AutoZone, business services provider Cintas, and advisory firm Accenture will also report this week.

    This Week’s Calendar
    Monday, Sept. 22

    • Fed speakers: Fed Governor Stephen Miran, New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem
    Tuesday, Sept. 23

    • S&P flash U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (September)

    • Fed speakers: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    • Key Earnings: Micron (MU), AutoZone (AZO)
    Wednesday, Sept. 24

    • New home sales (August)

    • Fed speakers: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

    • Key Earnings: Cintas (CTAS), Thor Industries (THO), KB Home (KBH)
    Thursday, Sept. 25

    • Gross domestic product, second revision (Q2)

    • More Data to Watch: Existing home sales (August), Initial jobless claims (week ending Sept. 20), Advanced U.S. trade balance (August), Advanced retail inventories (August), Advanced wholesale inventories (August), Durable-goods orders (August)

    • Fed Speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Michael Barr, New York Fed President John Williams, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

    • Key Earnings: Costco Wholesale (COST), Accenture (ACN), Jabil (JBL), TD Synnex (SNX), CarMax (KMX)
    Friday, Sept. 26

    • Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (August)

    • More Data to Watch: Consumer sentiment (September)

    • Federal Reserve speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
     
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  19. Lori Myers

    Lori Myers Active Member

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    Thanks, W. Would hate to suddenly lose access to your posts! Hopefully this place stays open. I've grown to really like it here. It's part of my day now, logging in to see your updates - I love reading them all. Plus all the other great posters here...long may it continue.
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I dont often post articles from Fox News. BUT....this is an important non-political article. We need to push forward on this issue and our companies need to ALL do the same in terms of the dominance they have allowed China to capture in many other areas of business like pharmaceuticals.

    China weaponized science against the US. We've figured out a key element they missed
    American researchers perfect magnets from abundant materials that could replace Chinese rare-earth minerals

    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/chi...gainst-us-weve-figured-out-key-element-missed

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "In April, China imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements, crippling American manufacturing across dozens of critical sectors. Ford temporarily shuttered production lines while European suppliers closed entire factories. In one calculated move, Beijing demonstrated its power to hobble the West.

    This economic warfare represents decades of strategic planning. While America slept, China cornered the market on materials essential to modern civilization. By controlling 90% of rare-earth processing capacity, it dictates prices and decides who receives supplies. The periodic table became their ultimate economic weapon.

    But weapons can be rendered obsolete through superior innovation. American scientists discovered that combining iron, the planet's fourth-most abundant element, with atmospheric nitrogen makes a compound more magnetic than anything produced by China. This breakthrough doesn't just match Chinese materials; it surpasses them.

    US ‘ABSOLUTELY’ HAS ENOUGH RESOURCES TO BE RARE-EARTH INDEPENDENT AND DOMINANT, CLAIMS CEO

    China's rare-earth monopoly began forming in the 1980s. Beijing flooded global markets with below-cost magnets. When Western companies surrendered market share, China tightened control, consolidating processing facilities and mining operations. By 2024, virtually every electric vehicle motor, wind turbine generator and advanced electronic device depended on materials Beijing could shut off at will.

    Rare-earth mine in Baiyun'ebo or Bayan Obo. Baiyun'ebo or Bayan Obo is a mining town in Inner Mongolia in China. The mines are one the largest deposits of rare earth metals found in the world. (Bert Van Dijk/Getty Images)

    The April export restrictions exposed this vulnerability with surgical precision. Ford's Chicago assembly plant felt the impact first. Explorer production was halted for seven days in May while executives scrambled to obtain export licenses from Chinese officials. European manufacturers suffered even worse disruptions.

    Soon, the crisis had spread beyond cars. Aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and defense contractors all discovered their dependence on materials that Beijing could weaponize without warning. This represented the culmination of China's three-decade strategy to corner critical mineral markets while American companies chased quarterly profits and policymakers prioritized cheap consumer goods over strategic independence.

    Yet, while China was tightening its grip, American researchers at the University of Minnesota had been solving a puzzle that had frustrated scientists since the 1950s. Professor Jian-Ping Wang spent nearly a decade perfecting techniques to synthesize iron nitride magnets from the most abundant elements on Earth. His breakthrough, published in 2010, finally explained how combining iron with nitrogen can create a material with magnetization exceeding anything China produces from rare earths.

    The physics is remarkable. Iron nitride retains full magnetization at 200 degrees Celsius, exceeding the temperature capability of all magnet compounds except those made from the scarcest and most expensive critical elements. Most importantly, the raw materials come from sources no nation can monopolize: Minnesota's iron ore deposits and atmospheric nitrogen. Iron nitride represents something China cannot replicate — American innovation driven by scientific curiosity rather than state industrial policy — and reduces our national security and economic vulnerabilities while strengthening domestic manufacturing capacity.

    Yet commercializing this breakthrough requires the same strategic commitment China demonstrated while building rare-earth dominance. Beijing spent hundreds of billions of dollars over three decades, accepting losses to achieve market control. America needs comparable federal action to deploy iron nitride technology before China recognizes the threat and floods markets with below-cost rare earths to kill American innovation in its cradle.

    The question is whether policymakers will act with the same strategic patience China demonstrated while building rare-earth dominance, or whether they will allow another generation of American industrial capacity to migrate overseas in pursuit of cheap imports that mask dangerous dependencies.

    The periodic table need not remain China's weapon. American science has found the antidote. The only remaining question is whether America possesses the strategic will to deploy it. "

    MY COMMENT

    AMERICAN business needs to move forward on this issue and recapturing.....ALL....the other business areas that we have abandoned to China. We need to make sure we dont slip back into the old way of doing things when the current little trade disruption with China ends. It is a simple question of short term business thinking versus long term business thinking.

    It is also a question of National Security and freeing the world from the China threat.
     

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