The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TireSmoke likes this.
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....the BS lately about younger consumers cutting back and not spending since they are not eating at CHIPOTLE, etc, etc, etc. Turns out to simply be....media opinion BS. Consumers are choosing where to spend.......and....they are still spending.

    Younger consumers are eating less Chipotle and Cava. They are buying more Coach bags

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/tapestry-tpr-q1-2026-earnings.html
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A lot of times on here I use the phrase.....SP500 Index Fund. it is just habit. In today's investing world what I mean when I use that phrase is an....SP500 ETF. I would always choose an ETF over a mutual fund when buying an Index. the tax benefits are significant.

    Double-digit mutual fund payouts are coming — how to avoid the tax hit

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/mutual-fund-capital-gains-payouts.html
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am just IGNORING the actual markets today....since I dont have a single GREEN stock.

    Are we heading into a little correction.....perhaps...although the SP500 over the past five days is only down by 1.77%.

    Of course we will see a rolling correction for various single stocks. PLTR is already there. NVDA is getting close. MSFT is at least half way there.

    As usual we see the LARGEST most SUCCESSFUL companies in the world being treated like...... risky start-up junk stocks.....day after day.....year after year.....in spite of constant GREAT earnings.

    I am using the traditional definition of a correction being a dip of 10% or more.

    Do I care about corrections....NO. Dips are just he price you pay to be invested in the markets for the long term. It is TOTALLY NORMAL to see at least 1-3 corrections in any one year.

    In the older days a correction was often a 1 month to 3 month event....an actual economic event. .

    Now we often have 1 week to 3 week.... little mini-corrections. They come on fast and hard....and go away just as quickly. They are often the result of the MEDIA and events like the actions and blather of groups like the FED....or some comment from a big bank leader. The "modern" correction tends to have NOTHING to do with economic events or business conditions. They are often TRIGGERED by some comment, or someone or something TRASHING the markets....especially the big tech side of the markets.

    In the old days BROAD fundamental business issues and results were often drivers of corrections.

    NOW....it is just...fear-mongering, manipulation, opinion BS which is repeated by everyone and becomes a self-fulfilling story-line, rumor, speculation, etc, etc, etc. The people spreading this "STUFF" are often IGNORANT and really dont know what they are talking about.

    BUT...that is the reality we have to navigate as investors in the modern market world....where much of the day to day stock action is driven by AI HEADLINE PROGRAM TRADING....and....speculation.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A total waste of time to watch the markets today. So I will IGNORE IT ALL.....and go do something that is productive. Why torture myself.

    The day is early....so we will see how things progress or regress over the next....5.5 hours.
     
  8. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    My goodness what a payday.

    I mean this guy has got to be able to keep up with inflation, purchase groceries and such. :D
     
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  9. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yes, a bit of red out there today it appears.

    I wouldn't be totally surprised if we have a decent little drop either. We have had a really good stretch since April for sure. Might not be a bad thing to see a bit of a shake-out.

    As usual, I have no idea if that will be the case on either side of it. I wouldn't mind getting some shares at a cheaper price anyway.
     
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  10. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Well it appears our policymakers have beaten the old shutdown record surpassing the #35 mark. On to #37 and counting I suppose.

    Who is going to blink first??

    The markets have largely ignored most of it up to this point.
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I note that.....here we are with the markets and what is happening right now over the past few days....basically started with POWELL and his idiotic comments about rate cuts. He clanged the entire....FEEL...of the markets.

    There is no way what he has constantly done to investors and the markets...over the past year, and especially now.....is not....INTENTIONAL.

    What he has done to TRASH the markets in 2025.......goes way beyond normal behavior for a FED chair.
     
    #26652 WXYZ, Nov 6, 2025 at 1:38 PM
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2025 at 4:18 PM
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the shut-down....NO....I still dont care. Political games dont matter to me and I dont see this as mattering to the markets either.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I see this type of coverage....today and the last few days..... as the driving force behind the recent drop in PLTR.....and also NVDA

    Michael Burry Bet Against Nvidia and Palantir—Is it Time to Get Out?

    https://247wallst.com/investing/202...st-nvidia-and-palantir-is-it-time-to-get-out/

    I guess if you are right about a housing and derivative disaster....that should have been obvious to all the so called "experts" as it was happening....makes you an investing genius. At least in the media.....EIGHTEEN YEARS LATER.

    This is a non-event......and....MASSIVE FEAR MONGERING....in support of a short position. This type of media coverage is EXACTLY how the markets are legally manipulated.

    AI tells me this is.....ALLEGEDLY.... his record....not exactly a ringing endorsement.

    • Post-2008 Record: His performance since reopening his fund has been more volatile. While he has had successful predictions, such as the 2022 market decline, some of his calls have been early or wrong, leading to missed opportunities or losses.
      • "For example, he shorted Tesla in 2021, and the stock more than doubled before falling later.
      • He bought GameStop shares early but sold them before they became a "meme stock" phenomenon, missing out on massive gains.
      • A significant bet against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in Q3 2023 was revealed just before markets soared, leading to an admission that his call was wrong at the time.
    • Recent Performance Metrics: As of late 2025 (based on the latest available data), Scion Asset Management's performance over various time-frames is reported as:
      • 1-Year Performance: 9.74%
      • 3-Year Performance: -15.25%
      • 5-Year Performance: 77.59%"
    Apparently....he can not even beat the SP500.

    FOR CONTEXT.....five year performance of the SP500.....129.7%. Want a bit MORE CONTEXT....the SP500....one year +13.64%. Three year....+21.70%.

    BUT....none of this matters to the MORONS in the media...pushing this short trade to the max over thee last 3 days. DISGUSTING.
     
    #26654 WXYZ, Nov 6, 2025 at 1:47 PM
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2025 at 4:18 PM
  15. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    I think a little bit of the NVDA noise was attributed to the Jensen comments the other day. As soon as it came out, NVDA went into that little sell off into the close.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/jen...larifying-in-a-statement-nvidia-trump-xi.html

    Now, I think he is probably just angling to get his point across about the (chip restrictions/China/US) to a degree. He clearly doesn't like the current policy to say the least and has been vocal about it. Respectful, but vocal in a way.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    If his PONZI scheme had not collapsed....I am sure the media would be quoting genius investor....Barry Madoff...about now.

    I HATE "experts".

    I was and am still amazed that the Madoff ponzi scheme was not discovered for 15-20 years after it all started. All the "experts" missed it and in fact encouraged it by piggy-backing their Hedge Funds over to Madoff for their clients. The SEC is a revolving door of investing industry and big bank.... "experts"....and we know how they performed regarding Madoff.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So....we....the little people suffer...at the hands of the FOOLS....as usual.

    Today I had a single GREEN stock....GOOGL. I ended with a large loss. I also got beat by the SP500 today by 1.55%.

    PLTR is in correction right now....over the past 5 days and NVDA is just under....for the past 5 days. META is in correction for the last 30 days.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Lately I have gone back about 1-2 weeks in the old stock market time machine.....in terms of account value. Looks like I am now....once again.... below my 2025......SP500....perdition of 6800 to 6900.
     
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  20. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    A resounding red day in the market it appears.

    No sense in getting our feathers ruffled about it. Not much we can do about it. Let's not set our hair on fire....yet.:) There will plenty of angst at some point if it continues.

    The long term is littered with peaks and valleys. It is simply part of the journey.

    No, I'm not predicting or speculating about what may or may not be forthcoming. We could just as easily continue the march up the mountain and hopefully so.

    My point is...."everybody" is going to claim they were right about it either way or maybe even blame the whole thing on this or that. It is really all noise to a point. That is not uncommon or news on any front quite honestly.

    Seems investors are always "worried" about something. It is just part of it. It can be annoying, it can be exhilarating, it can be painful, and confounding at times. That is investing in a nutshell.
     

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