The Long Term Investor

I like this little article.

UBS sees S&P 500 hitting 7,500 by year-end 2026, fueled by AI and strong corporate profits

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-...i-and-strong-corporate-profits-155408599.html

 

HERE is more detail.

CoreWeave’s revenue more than doubles as AI buildout expansion accelerates

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/10/coreweave-crwv-q3-earnings-report-2025.html

 

NO CHANGES........AS USUAL:

SO....here is my current portfolio of....EIGHT....stocks.

The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio.

"I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc.

PORTFOLIO MODEL

"Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing.

As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 9 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD.

STOCKS:

Alphabet Inc
Amazon
Apple
Costco
Home Depot
Microsoft
Nvidia
Palantir


MUTUAL FUNDS:

SP500 Index Fund
Fidelity Contra Fund

CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (75). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)"

MY COMMENT

This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."

 

Broteau....to FLIP your post.....I made back HALF of the money I spent on the painting yesterday....in a single day. AND....my NVDA jumped right back close to the percentage of my portfolio that it was before the sale. So I am very happy with how it all went. LOL.

Being more serious....I NEVER second guess or look back on an investing decision. I would do the same trade over again if I was in the same situation. And it is not a one sided transaction with the shares sold....I now own a nice painting with a great exhibition record. I am hoping that painting goes up nicely in value over the rest of my life.

AND....for me or anyone else.....it is never a wrong decision to take profits....if done rationally and not in response to fear or panic. I basically took back all the money that I put into NVDA initially......so from here on I am working ONLY on gained money in that stock.

What I cant believe is that I wanted to reduce the DOMINANCE of that position on my portfolio.....yet in a single day....I moved over half way back to where I was before.

 

Speaking of the above.....tomorrow I will miss the entire day. We will be doing a full day road trip to pick up the new painting.

 

I like this little article.....some good rational advice for us all. NO....we are not investing geniuses. Dont confuse a massive bull market gain....with investing prowess.

MOST of us have made HUGE amounts of money in this bull market.

For some of us it might even be life-altering amounts of money. This is a great thing......considering the potential to compound that money further over the rest of your investing years.

BUT........do not let success in the markets go to your head. Sooner or later we will end up in a BEAR MARKET again.....your investing prowess will be gone. You will be a mere mortal again. It will all be....WOE IS ME.

"The market will make you feel dumb again at some point…even when it’s not true"

So i say....ENJOY the ride.....CELEBRATE when you are winning......have FUN. CONGRATULATE yourself. BUT.....stay focused and rational while you enjoy the elation of success.

Ben Graham & Bull Market Brains

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-graham-bull-market-brains/

 

I also like this little article. Some very good advice in terms of investing psychology. There is a is a HUGE experience and memory GAP among investors today. Many have NEVER gone through an extended BEAR MARKET. To many people today a correction is a week or two. It will be a massive wake up call when they have to go through a 1-3 year.....soul crushing....bear market.

As the article points out.....only investors over about age 47 have significant memory of the last CRASH in 2008/2009.

My investing MEMORY BANK (experience)....goes back to the 1970's. It covers over 50 years. I have basically seen it ALL...I have lived it ALL....I have invested through it ALL...many times. This helps to give me CLINICAL FOCUS.....and financial self awareness.

The Peter Bernstein Rule: Beware Empty Memory Banks

https://www.advisorperspectives.com...eter-bernstein-rule-beware-empty-memory-banks

As the article notes....regarding personal and institutional investing memory:

"Still not impressed? How about the 17-year period between 1966 and 1982, which saw a real stock return of zero — assuming that you could invest in the fully diversified S&P 500 index fund with three basis points of expenses, which of course you couldn’t. Only about 39% of the investing population has that excruciating drought etched in their memory."

 

In conjunction with the two above posts....here is a nice little BUBBLE article and discussion. I dont support the bubble view....but I do read things like this......and consider what is being said. It helps to keep my....CRAZY HUMAN BRAIN....and my risk tolerance and risk profile under control.

"Hey, There's a Bubble."
Yes, it's a bubble. Yes, that may be a good thing. Yes, it will hurt

https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/

 

I have not even looked up to see the averages since the open. I have been too busy reading and posting and scanning my normal sources.

NOW...I see that it is a MIXED day...so far. No doubt the profit takers and short term traders are impacting the open today....after the HUGE gain yesterday. We will know what the markets really think in about an hour....when the entire country is awake and has had their coffee. At this point it is 7:30AM on the West coast.

 

HERE he is....out there pushing his short trade. This is called....legal market manipulation. Unfortunately he has a soap box in the media because he made an outstanding call....SEVENTEEN ......years ago, Since than as I posted....his record has SUCKED...at least over the past five years.

I note.....If the MEDIA had any honesty.....they would research Burry's investing record over the past 17 years and include that information in this sort of article. BUT NOOOOOOOOO....cant do that....it might take away some of the clicks.

‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry accuses AI hyperscalers of artificially boosting earnings

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/big...calers-of-artificially-boosting-earnings.html

 

WELL.....DUH. Many of us baby boomers started investing in a time when there were NO ETF's. So we are sitting on old style INDEX MUTUAL FUNDS.

We realize the tax benefits of ETF's....and if we were buying right now we would be using an Index ETF. But.....there were no ETF's before about 20-25 years for us old-timers. So we are stuck with our mutual fund...style SP500 Index Funds and other Index funds in our accounts....since we dont want to sell and switch over to an ETF and get hit wih a big capital gains tax.

NOW in a 401K or an IRA....where a switch can be made with no capital gains tax exposure.....if I had an old SP500 Index Mutual fund...or other big Index mutual fund....I would sell it all and put it into a big SP500 ETF.

Baby boomers are less bullish on ETFs than younger generations, research finds — with good reason

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/baby-boomers-etfs.html

 

Here are the markets so far today. The media is pushing the same old GARBAGE about the tech stocks, valuation concerns, circular marketing, etc, etc, etc. In reality I dont think anyone cares.

S&P 500 slides with tech shares under pressure

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/10/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

Looks like I had some company in selling some NVDA. Of course i still have the vast majority of my shares....while "they" sold it all. AND...this sale did not happen due to fears of an AI bubble....or other BS spouted by the media....it was to raise money for other business pursuits.

SoftBank Sells Nvidia Stake for $5.8 Billion to Fund AI Bets

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-unloads-nvidia-stake-5-065809827.html

 

Here is the BULL case going forward in the markets.

AI fueled the stock market rally. Earnings are now giving it staying power.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-f...re-now-giving-it-staying-power-110032880.html

 

I consider the "SoftBank" story the media focus of the day....a huge amount of articles. Many...probably MOST.... being nothing more than opinion based fear-mongering.

Welcome to the day to day...short term...markets. This is a perfect example of what we all have to simply ENDURE....as long term investors.

 

Of course right now I have only three stocks GREEN.....AAPL, HD, and COST.

CARRY ON.....ENDURE and IGNORE.