A nice BIG one day gain for me so far today. BUT....to live in the world of REALITY....this gain is SLIGHTLY less than the one day loss I had a few days ago. AND....I notice that the big averages and my stocks have backed off a LITTLE BIT from where they were earlier. BUT....living in the world of REALITY and IGNORING the PAST......and focusing on ONLY the future....I am happy to have the gain today. A step in the right direction to get past the little......market bump.....we had in the recent few weeks.
To focus on the GOOD NEWS today. NVDA is now GREEN for the past five days and the past month. Up right now by......a very reasonable, perhaps even cheap.....+$4.45 per share.....after BLOW OUT earnings. Current price......$190.42. Plenty of upside....with the all time high at $212.19......less than a month ago. The high today......$195.96. PLTR...still RED for five days and one month. Up right now by, a cheap......+$1.18......a meaningless gain after their totally IGNORED blow out earnings. Current price....$166.60. Plenty of upside....with an all time high at $207.52....less than a month ago. The high today......$173.93. The impact of the short sellers and their (legal) market manipulations....are STILL..... obvious on both stocks.
We are now seeing SIGNIFICANT backing off by the NASDAQ from the earlier gains. No doubt mid-morning profit taking. MY big gain for the day is now just a...."nothing special" gain....having been cut nearly in half....for now. BUT....I will still GLADLY take it. NOW....the real day begins.
Done wasting time on the short term markets for now.....since I have exhausted my reading and thinking today. LETS MAKE SOME MONEY TODAY.
BUMMER.....AMZN, MSFT, and PLTR....now RED. NVDA...was also close to going RED.....but has stepped back from the brink a little bit.. I have been going into various acccounts that I manage and selling HD. ALL proceeds are divided between the other 7 stocks on an equal basis.
Well that did not take long.....I am now RED for the day in my seven stocks. NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, and PLTR are now RED for the day. ALL....the big averages are NOW....RED. What a waste and NOT a good indicator for the short term over the rest of this year. The PERDITION MARKET.....continues...and is ALIVE AND WELL. Oh well...you have got to love the short term LUNACY.
Well here we are living out Idiocracy. I'm beginning to think that people are becoming normalized to perdition and have accepted it as a prefered way of life! The good news is my 401k transfer went through and I can do some shopping.
pretty relentless selling pressure in the majors since about 10:30am eastern. not sure if there was any particular news catalysts behind it. doesn't matter though. bigger picture here -- majors are only off about roughly 4-5% from their respective ATHs. i feel like while today's action feels a bit severe given where we were pre-10:30am eastern to now. this is still a fairly healthy and needed move in the markets (imo). nothing moves in straight lines forever. the AI trade and general markets were running pretty hot for a long time now. some cooling off of that trade was inevitable at some point. this recent pullback (not correction yet) is good in that it works off some of these excessive extremes in the overall market. while the majors have dipped into the red now, it wouldn't surprise me if things level out and close higher (maybe even green) from where we are right now. i think this dip bodes well for those hoping for an EOY santa claus rally. we'll see what happens, but i feel like today's action is a little bit overdone on the downside. there wasn't really anything "new" that we heard to cause this big reversal off the highs. no black swans to speak of either. hope everyone is doing well it's been a minute. so far this pullback off the ATH has been pretty average. we see these things a few times a year. nothing to see here carry on.
Ok....here is my UNVARNISHED view of the short to medium term for the markets, the economy and the country. What follows is what I see as....."PROBABILITY"....will it happen, I dont know. (My definition of "PROBABILITY" is...."more likely than not"....a more than 50% chance of happening) What the markets are doing today is NOT a good sign. We are in a nasty PERDITION CORRECTION....in spite of what the loss percentages may be. We are also at significant risk of this PERDITION CORRECTION covering the remainder of November and all of December. This PROBABILITY is based on the total disrespect of historic earnings by the markets and a couple of HUGE events that will....PROBABLY.....happen in December: 1. The continuation of the "political" FED. I believe it is now PROBABLE that the FED and POWELL will NOT do a cut in December. This will either be an subconscious or conscious act by POWELL....which it is..... does not matter. The impact will be the same..... to further TRASH the stock markets and the housing markets. 2. The Supreme Court will......"PROBABLY"....throw out tariffs. This will be a HUGE psychological impact on the economy and the markets. Compounding the impact of the above....into the medium term.....1-2 years or beyond.....for the first time in my life and probably in history...we now have one of the two major political parties in the USA....openly running on....and actively electing people....on a platform based on Socialism and Communism and against Capitalism. Many if not ALL of the arguments we see politicians making about...."AFFORDABILITY".....are nothing more than a single word "slogan" which is cover for Socialism or Communism....if you look at the actual policies being espoused.....to deal with....the so called AFFORDABILITY CRISIS. If this trend continues...... at some point in the next 4-12 years we are going to end up with a majority in Congress along with a President....that governs under these types of views....but....even more extreme than what we see expressed now. When that happens it is PROBABLE that the FILIBUSTER will be gone and we will end up with court packing, and other extreme events and changes that will tear apart the fabric of the country. All I can say is I.....STRONGLY HOPE....I am wrong....especially about the medium term and the next 4-12 years. Perhaps I need to have more faith in people. BUT....I am a CLINICAL REALIST. AND.....NO....I am not saying the above based on...."MY"....politics.....it is based on my observations of reality and the current TRENDS.....which I believe have some potential to overwhelm any current REALITY. Perhaps....on a positive note....the great "silent majority"....the "moderates"...in both parties and the "independents" will come together and keep the above from happening....and create a NEW political reality. I hope so. I refer everyone to the story of HUMPTY-DUMPTY.....which "MIGHT" be relevant on many levels in the short to medium to longer term future. NOTHING LIKE....me...dropping this bomb on the thread. SORRY. AND....there is nothing I can do about any of the above....so I dont sit around and worry about these things. I am blessed with an EPIC ability to IGNORE IT ALL.
So I guess with my post and the post by BIG BEAR.....we pretty much covered all the potential outcomes. LOL
I now have a strong....medium...loss for the day and only two stocks in the GREEN....COST and GOOGL. BUMMER. At least I have been taking advantage of where we are right now to do some BUYING. NO...not market timing....I randomly had some money available from selling HD.....and I always IMMEDIATELY reinvest and free money. I did a lot of buying of my remaining SEVEN stocks yesterday and today. Over time those shares at the prices I paid should do very well.
HERE is my CURRENT PORTFOLIO after selling ALL.....HD: SO....here is my current portfolio of....SEVEN....stocks. The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio. "I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 7 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Microsoft Nvidia Palantir MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (75). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
Since I am now...IGNORING...the markets...here is some good news...that most people would probably think was the opposite based on the recent media coverage. How much a ‘classic’ Thanksgiving dinner will cost you—it’s cheaper than last year https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/cost-of-classic-thanksgiving-dinner.html The cost is 5% below last year....at $55.18..... and way below the high of $64.05 in 2022. AMAZINGLY...good old HEB....is selling Premium Butterball Turkeys at......97CENTS....a pound. A great price. And even more AMAZING.....WMT is selling at.....84CENTS a pound.
Some interesting posts from bigbear and W. Some real time thoughts on the topics. I think a pullback/PERDITION CORRECTION or whatever "this" may turn out to be, paves the way for us somewhere down the road. Of course, it may be more than that or maybe just a blip. As we all know, the journey up the mountain is not always a straight shot and the market sometimes doesn't need a specific reason. Kind of an odd time. There is fuel for either narrative to take hold when you think about it. Seems almost like a bit of confusion. Seems very noisy the past few months, but when we think about other times, there is always some sort of thing to contend with. The only thing I do know. I will ride it out either way.
I know I am not helping anyone's mood...but keep in mind this is the EXTREME SHORT TERM.....I now have a large loss for the day....and a single GREEN stock....COST. I guess the good news is that the NVDA earnings were a massive beat....I would hate to see the markets if they were not.
I do wonder about this. Yes, I think I have a good grasp on where most posters opinions are on the tariff policy and mine as well, so I'm not posting this to generate that discussion here...again. My point, you do bring up a valid topic of....what will the market think about it? It is a judicial decision, so it could go either way. I wonder what the market reaction will be on either side of it if....(a) they remain or (b) they are tossed.
Thinking out loud. I wonder if some of the weakness we have seen in little bursts have something to do with the above question. Maybe pulling a bit of risk off as the decision nears?? I've noticed a bit of an uptick (gains) in the Treasury fund I have off/on during these little spells. Now, that may just be some stock money going into a "safer" deal as you would normally see, but it makes me wonder out loud about it. If there is some positioning taking place a little bit at a time in anticipation of some of this. Of course, maybe it is just a combination of some of what was covered above.....FED (doubts), tariff chatter/decision, etc.... There is no telling....to be honest.
