The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For those thinking of buying a house....GET USED TO IT. The current rates are totally normal....for a 30 year mortgage. That range at least over most of my lifetime has been 5-7%. Of course leading up to the REGAN TAX CUTS....we saw rates as high as 12%.

    When will mortgage rates go down? Insights after 3 weeks of increases.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-...-of-increases-november-24-2025-190610645.html

    In my little area of about 4200 homes...the markets are moving some....especially in the high end....over one million. I dont see a lot of price increases or drops. Sellers are holding firm.....but at the same time I dont see prices going up.

    I IMAGINE there should be lower mortgage rates next year as we see more rate cuts by the FED.
     
  2. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Wow WXYZ! You are really showing your age! As the younger generation calls the olden days, aka the 1900's... By time I went to school they had standard breaks like today, Thursday and Friday off for thanksgiving, a week for christmas into new years and a week for spring break. I will say that we very could have attended the same age grade schools. My elementary school was built in 1921 and had radiant heat and no AC as well as my high school built in 1894 (with a big addition in the 1960's). It was a neat experience to grow up in that the next generation will miss out on. My parents house had central AC but my mom refused to use it, same for the dishwasher. Far to wasteful.

    I talked about moving some of my retirement into a self directed account last week. In doing so I added AMD and Google to my holdings. Special thanks for WXYZ in which I wanted to diversify a tiny bit so I looked at his stock holdings and did some research to see what best fit my investing degeneracy, I mean style! I moved the Pre taxed account over first and then the tax deferred. Due to the volatility of last week the smaller of the two is still down a touch and the larger is in the green about double what the smaller is in the red. Doesn't really matter but always good to be green even if I have no plans to use either account for decades.
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A reminder to anyone and everyone. If you can and it fits your lifestyle...you might want to consider FREEZING YOUR CREDIT.

    Ours has been frozen for about 25 years now....after someone stole my bank account information while I was on tour. I assume it was probably someone in a hotel.

    Today i got a notice in the mail from a credit card company for a major store asking me to unfreeze our credit so they could process the credit card application that we submitted on November 19. Needless to say we DID NOT submit a credit card application and just about NEVER use that store.

    Thanks to my credit being frozen.....this card can not be processed.
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah TireSmoke....my wife and I got our first dishwasher....a used one about the size of a washing machine.... that you had to wheel to the sink and hook up a hose to the faucet.....in about 1974. We kept it out on the nook/porch adjoining the kitchen.

    The first home we owned with Central AC was the house in a CEO neighborhood that we bought in about 1990. Even in that high end neighborhood....the majority of the homes did NOT have central AC. Of course that was in Washington State....where it was considered unnecessary.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    PLTR is also kicking ass today....currently UP by over $10.....at +6.55%.

    I consider COST and MSFT.....as HUGE buys at their current level.

    Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Down More Than 12% Since Q1 2026 Results

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-corporation-msft-down-more-135834038.html

    The stock is currently selling at about $474.....with many analysts projecting the stock into the mid $600 range. I see NO REASON for the current drop and the disrespect. NONE at all.

    AI tells me:

    "Microsoft's
    Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 earnings results were released on October 29, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The strong performance was primarily driven by continued momentum in its cloud and AI segments"

    Microsoft (MSFT) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-msft-surpasses-q1-earnings-211503792.html

    "Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times."

    Simply a total MYSTERY why the stock is so disrespected.....I guess it is just their turn.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I ended the day today with.....A BIG GAIN....in my seven stocks. NOW...lets try to hold onto it for at least a couple of days. I also beat the SP500 by 0.80% today.

    Nothing like a shallow holiday week to.....SHOW ME THE MONEY.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LORI.....does your family celebrate Thanksgiving? I saw where it is being adopted more and more in England by younger people.

    If so what is on your menu and/or the typical Thanksgiving menu in England?
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I LOVE IT....but apparently there is NO AI bubble for....GOOGL. Weird.
     
  9. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Pretty wild times for sure. From the premarket prices it looks like my newly acquired Google stock is performing well at the expense of AMD and NVDA. I guess announcing you are doing or going to do something carries more weight today than a record earnings beat with strong guidance. Nothing left to do but ride the wave and see if we end up out to see or safely on shore...
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As usual....all the fear-mongering and DRAMA MAVENS....are WRONG.....again. On both inflation and retail sales.

    Core wholesale prices rose less than expected in September; retail sales gain

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/cor...-expected-in-september-retail-sales-gain.html

    ......"increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% on the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

    However, excluding food and energy, the index rose just 0.1%, below the 0.2% estimate. Both core and headline PPI had decreased 0.1% in August. Headline PPI was up 2.9% from a year ago, while core rose 2.6%."

    AND.

    ...."the Census Bureau said retail sales increased 0.2% in September, a bit softer than the 0.3% forecast. However, sales excluding autos rose 0.3%, in line with the estimate."
     
  11. Lori Myers

    Lori Myers Active Member

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    Hey, W,

    I can honestly say I have never met a single person in the UK that celebrates Thanksgiving. There is zero mention of it anywhere. I only remembered it was this week when I read your posts. Christmas is in full swing over here already - people go earlier every year. Decorations are up in lots of houses in my local area - including mine!

    I hope your family - and all the other posters here - have a great Thanksgiving!
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice little article.

    Rational Exuberance?

    https://ritholtz.com/2025/11/rational-exuberance/

    "Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a once-in-a-generation transformational technology boom that will drive both the economy and the stock market in positive directions for years to come."

    My feeling is pretty OBVIOUS.....with what I own. I see massive PROBABILITY.....in favor of a once-in-a-lifetime transformational event. AND.....I have my money where my mouth is.
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NVDA is being hammered today early.....by the AI news traders.....and the MORONS in the media. Here is the story-line being pushed.

    Nvidia-Google AI Chip Rivalry Escalates on Report of Meta Talks

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-shares-dip-google-appears-014603931.html

    How RIDICULOUSLY STUPID. The markets continue to constantly jerk NVDA around as though they are some sort of FLUKE or FLUFF company that just bumbled their way to where they are.

    NO....they fought their way to the top....against ALL the other chip and tech companies. They produce the BEST products and are the GOLD STANDARD. It is MORONIC....how the stock is driven down every time there is some little article about some other company making or selling chips.

    OBVIOUSLY.....this is TRADERS......not investors. AND....to have this quick and big of an impact on a MINOR news item....it HAS to be AI TRADING PROGRAMS. These programs are now in a position to.....MANIPULATE the markets.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am no doubt WAY DOWN today....looking at my stocks....as the recent day to day....BOOM and BUST continues as the trend.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The AI BUBBLE story that continues to HAMMER...... MSFT, AMZN, PLTR and the general markets......is IRRATIONAL. It applies to some companies and not others. It DEFIES and CONTRADICTS all the fundamental results.

    HOWEVER.....it shows that short term.....the markets are disconnected from fundamentals and reality. it shows that short term....GREAT earnings dont matter and will NOT be rewarded.

    A very dangerous trend for the future of the markets. WHY....because if the short term is this irrational and disconnected from FACT.....it does and will...... impact the longer term.

    In addition it FOSTERS the gambling and trading mentality. It is also an indication of the impact of MASSIVE AI PROGRAM TRADING....in concert.....to manipulate the markets. ALL....of the above is a huge impact on investor confidence and psychology.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    FACT......NVDA will sell every single chip they can produce. AND....they will continue to TOTALLY DOMINATE......with their development of new chips that raise and set the standard for the entire chip industry.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    APPARENTLY....the AI BUBBLE does not apply to these companies.

    Keysight beats quarterly forecast estimates on strong demand from AI data centers

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/keysight-beats-quarterly-forecast-estimates-222232807.html

    Zoom lifts annual outlook on growing demand for AI tools in hybrid work

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zoom-communications-lifts-annual-outlook-214115167.html

    Alibaba's cloud business revenue soars 34% driven by AI boom

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibabas-cloud-business-revenue-soars-142307054.html

    ALL are WAY UP. APPARENTLY.....this is the first very SELECTIVE bubble in history. A bubble for thee.....but not for me.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So far....my profit taking of a chunk of my NVDA.....to buy art......appears to have been a good move. Longer term....probably not.

    NVDA today......(-$11.36) and (-6.22%). In a single day.

    So the markets are telling us that apparently the people doing this selling and trading and speculating....... think that NVDA is such a FRAGILE company......even as the largest most successful company in the WORLD....that it should trade on day to day news like a penny stock.
     

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