The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So NVDA down by over 7%...this week. A big earnings beat totally IGNORED.

    AND....as TireSmoke mentioned....it is now RED for the past SIX MONTHS....down by.....1.65%. So I guess all their business success over that time has now....simply....EVAPORATED into thin air. POOF.....

    Seems a little EXTREME to me......(understatement of the century).
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice little article that is probably right on point when it comes to AI and job disruption.

    All of the Jobs That No Longer Exist

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/all-of-the-jobs-that-no-longer-exist/

    "Heading into the 19th century, about 70-80% of all jobs in the industrial world were in agriculture.

    Most people were farmers.

    By 1870, more than half of all men owned or performed labor on farms.

    Today less than 1% of the U.S. population works in agriculture........."
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The action this week seems pretty IDIOTIC when you read this. It all boils down to one thing....basic HUMAN BEHAVIOR when faced with new and potential societal changes. The greatest danger from AI......emotional humans...reacting to FEAR of the unknown.

    The week when AI changed everything

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/week-ai-changed-everything-080033414.html

    ........"The steep declines this week showed just how on edge investors are regarding AI — even when the news is good, or when doomsday scenarios are completely made out of thin air........."
     
    #28303 WXYZ, Feb 28, 2026
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2026
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Of course they are.....this company is a BUSINESS MONSTER. Luckily they do not pay any attention to the media. They are going to POWER FORWARD....regardless of the IDIOCY put out in the media and in spite of the manipulation and HATE directed at their stock.

    At the same time....the most DOMINANT company in the world.....and...the most DISRESPECTED company in the world.

    Nvidia plans new chip to speed AI processing, WSJ reports

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-plans-chip-speed-ai-032246645.html
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Talk about human behavior and fear and panic.

    YES....I consider the past couple of months a CORRECTION.

    YES....I am only down by about (-4.2%) year to date.

    AND....in the long term scheme of things...this is a pittance. Consider the..... HUGE GAINS....that I had last year and over the past 6-7 years. Consider the..... HUGE GAINS that I still have in PLTR and NVDA.

    AND...even though we are in a very erratic and IDIOTIC volatile market....I am still doing just fine over the medium to long term.

    I HATE the current short term market action......but......it is what it is. As an investor I have a couple of choices:

    1. Panic and sell and lock in the recent losses.

    OR

    2. SIT and do nothing and IGNORE it all.....on the PROMISE of the long term.

    OR

    3. Perhaps re-balance a bit to get my portfolio back in line with my current emotional make up and risk tolerance.

    For me the correct answer is NUMBER 2. For others....well you have to do what is right for you and your situation. I really doubt that most people have much of a LOSS...... in spite of the HORRIBLE feel to the markets right now.
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Here's a sitrep, while I wait for a train in south east Asia.

    The last I mentioned it, probably 3 years ago, I think I mentioned slimming down to 6 companies. That number has been 4 for about two years.

    I have a substantial holding of VOO, although that isn't my primary holding.

    RE is no longer a primary holding but we still have more property than we would like.

    The bulk of my wealth is now in fixed income.

    Two years ago, I started two businesses. One is doing well and the other is doing great. They did not start strong, to say the least. I'm in the process of selling one of them as I've lost interest and motivation.

    I mentioned trading some options on NVDA a couple of months ago. I tried to do it again after the most recent earnings report. The same price swing took place but option prices did not hit the same marks they did late last year and I completely missed out. I haven't stopped watching nVidia, though.

    Just over a year ago, I purchased Samsung. It is not a particularly significant position in our portfolio. They were struggling, at that time. I bought them because of industry factors, nothing specific to their business, but I've been following them for years so it wasn't a hail Mary. It was meant to be a short term hold but I still own it with no plans to sell in the near term.

    Overall, I'm a far worse investor than I was three years ago. I'm less engaged. Less interested, although still tremendously interested in specific aspects of the commercial world. I'm less invested and I should be less invested. I no longer consider managing my portfolio as good of a use of my time.
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Anther quarter of EPIC EARNINGS.......and......the markets did not care, as usual.

    EARNINGS INSIGHT

    https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_022726.pdf


    KEY DATA....ALL for Q4 2025.....all data is for the SP500.

    • Based on 96% of earnings reports.......73% a positive EPS surprise.......73% a positive revenue
    surprise.

    • Earnings growth rate is 14.2%. at this level it will be the 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

    • 45 S&P 500 companies gave negative EPS guidance and 52 positive EPS guidance.

    • Valuation: Forward 12-month P/E ratio stands at 21.6.
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  14. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #28314 Smokie, Mar 1, 2026
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2026
  15. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Lol....Ignore the post above. The site is not cooperating with the chart I was trying to post.

    Here is the article that contains the chart. Basically, my point was the markets are in favor with different things at varying times. This is nothing new and is as old as time itself. No, the market is not broken or somehow fundamentally flawed. The ebb and flow of things happen from time to time.

    The top 7 or so get a lot of attention. They do deserve quite a bit of it for sure, but they are not the whole market. We get a bit lured into thinking this because of that non-stop coverage. Looking out with a wider lens we can see there are many parts of the market doing just fine. We would not realize this if we only pay attention to what is fed to us on a daily basis.

    Sometimes this occurs for a short period of time and at times much longer. The point is....it is not abnormal to occur.

    More Tech Stocks Look Cheap As the Market Rotates | Morningstar
     
  16. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    I thought this was interesting. Anthropic reportedly didn't want to give up some safety aspects or give full reign on certain things. Of course, OpenAI will oblige and fill the void. Sometimes they seem a bit desperate.

    In fairness, I would not trust any of these right now as far as I could throw them. The race is on and safety or guardrails is something to worry about later.:suspicious:
     
  17. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Live the good life TB16!:)
     
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  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND....remember. What we are seeing right now with outside events, geo-political risk, short term market manipulation, and short term fear-mongering impacting the markets over the past few months.....is EXACTLY.....why you do NOT expose short term money to the markets.

    By short term money I mean money that will be needed sooner than two....and better....three years.

    In my view....stock investing is for....long term money....ONLY.
     
    #28319 WXYZ, Mar 1, 2026
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2026
    Strathmore likes this.
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the current fear based environment.

    "A stark contrast": Wall Street weighs winners and losers amid AI-driven tech sell-off

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-st...s-amid-ai-driven-tech-sell-off-160017420.html

    "The strategist sees the roughly 5% pullback in Nvidia's share price following the chipmaker's quarterly earnings on Wednesday — along with the stock's sideways performance so far this year — as a buying opportunity.
     

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