The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Of course it did....and....the big boy AI traders LOVE it:

    Wall Street sell-off picks up steam, Dow loses 800 points and tumbles deeper into correction territory

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    AND....of course....the greatest most successful companies in the world...BIG TECH...is getting HAMMERED as usual. Actually....even MORE than usual.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have talked a lot on here over the years about my "vision" of the negative future for the markets. Probably more than I should since it might discourage or scare some people.

    BUT....imagine that what we have been seeing for the past three months is the long term future of the markets.

    A time period marked by a total REFUSAL of the financial media to frame ANYTHING in positive terms in the daily news and coverage. I think that UNFORTUNATELY....we are basically there right now.

    In such a situation anything positive will be IGNORED and buried in the negative. Earnings will no longer matter...except for the constant negative slant of even the greatest earnings BEATS. In fact....NOTHING....will matter since everything being covered will be some fear-mongering topic of the next coming disaster for stocks, investors, business, some industry (like happening with AI right now), etc, etc, etc.

    I think we are basically there....right now.

    The one million dollar question....how much longer does it take for this..."new media normal".....to infect and destroy even the long term markets. AND at what point do investors simply....give up on ownership of stocks and funds.

    Something will fill the gap....real estate, gambling, some crazy new investment that can not even be imagined right now,......who knows.

    To the HUGE flood of baby boomers that are entering retirement with NO PENSIONS....right now. I feel your pain.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another BIG loss for my stocks today. A single green stock....COST. I also lost out to the SP500 in my stocks by....0.43%.

    The pain continues.

    Not that I am really feeling it or care.....I have now passed into the....."beyond caring"...phase of this correction. I just look at the markets each day and.....it is meaningless to me.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES......the correction continues.

    I am now at (-10.23%) year to date for my entire portfolio....after the first 1/3 of the investing year.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

    DO YOURSELF A FAVOR....REFUSE TO THINK ABOUT THE MARKETS.
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The close today. This article is a LITANY of the negative on topic after topic....but that is the FACT we are dealing with right now. NOTHING....is positive for investors.

    S&P 500 clinches longest losing streak since 2022 as oil surges, 'Magnificent 7' stocks shed $300 billion

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...cent-7-stocks-shed-300-billion-200142689.html

    Topics include:

    Dow enters correction, S&P 500 posts longest weekly loss streak since 2022.

    S&P 500 on pace for worst weekly streak of losses since 2022.

    Losses accelerate, Big Tech gets hammered on fears of higher rates.

    Bitcoin tumbles to $65,000 as investors go risk-off.

    Fed's Jefferson sees higher inflation from Iran war near term.

    Gold rebounds 3%, but eyes fourth straight weekly loss.

    Software stocks resume decline amid AI fears, changing Fed outlook.

    Carnival cuts profit outlook for 2026, sending shares falling.

    10-year Treasury yield climbs to highest level since July.

    US stocks turn into the red at the opening bell.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ABOVE you have the markets today....in reverse from the close back to the open.

    NOTHING positive...except it is Friday and the markets will be closed for two days.
     
  9. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    100% seconded. These idiots live in a different reality where their skill is grift. They need to feel the pain of others for them to care.

    This would be awesome! It would solve a lot of issues. Never going to happen.

    Yeah, about that:

    US House Republicans reject Senate deal to restore airport security funding
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-agrees-end-shutdown-most-dhs-politico-reports-2026-03-27/

    Get rid of all of them. Awful bottom dwellers.
     
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  10. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, by the time I get to retire (15-20 years from now), who knows what kind of shitshow it'll be.
     
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  11. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    We will be fine in the long run. The markets will too as time goes on.
     
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  12. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps, but perhaps it'll be a gambling cesspool where AI and whales manipulate the market to take advantage of skittish (ignorant) traders/investors. I mean, look at NVDA's last few quarterly reports only to get the sideways treatment.

    It's always going to be a game of mimic what the rich do to get in on their action, but sometimes they have tools the average shlub does not have. And here I thought market manipulation and insider trading was illegal :p
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  15. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    No doubt the tools and equipment the big institutions and investment firms have are a massive advantage in that type of environment. And they have the capital to do it. The premise behind their active management has not changed. This has been a part of the market almost since the beginning.

    As a long-term investor, I am not in that daily or frequent environment making moves and decisions to outwit them. My time frame is much longer, and I am not in and out trading against them a number of times. Yes, they can and do have an effect on the market at times with such large capital. It can often be irrational and move things a bit. However, over the long-term those movements are less and less noticeable from an investment standpoint.

    For example: I'll use the SP 500 in this case. Here are some returns. Now, think about all of the "things" that went on during those times. Also, think about the daily noise associated with those. Those are a lot of days. In fact, we can't even remember most of what was going on in many of those days. Yes, there are some nasty times included as well and the time of recovery on some of those were longer than these figures show on the surface. My point is that often we tend to look at events and think this time is different and translate that into the market as a whole or it being the new normal. The events themselves are often different (Covid, Inflation, Recession, GFC) but the market reacts. Sometimes it is a rational reaction and sometimes it is a mix.

    2025 17.88%
    2024 25.02%
    2023 26.29%
    2022 -18.11%
    2021 28.71%
    2020 18.40%
    2019 31.49%
    2018 -4.38%
    2017 21.83%
    2016 11.96%
    2015 1.38%
    2014 13.69%
    2013 32.39%
    2012 16.00%
    2011 2.11%
    2010 15.06%
    2009 26.46%
    2008 -37.00%
    2007 5.49%
    2006 15.79%
    2005 4.91%
    2004 10.88%
    2003 28.68%
     
  16. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I know you guys are frustrated with it. You all that hold significant allocations to NVDA know way more about it than I do since you follow the company closely.

    A lot of noise within the industry and surrounding companies. New developments and different offerings seem to pop-up in this race all the time. We also can't dismiss other countries and even our own regulations stifling some progress from time to time.

    I think NVDA is a fine company. You guys have enjoyed some wonderful returns over the years. Just a lot of noise in this particular area right now.
     
  17. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of market gyrations and all the doom and gloom.

    What has actually done well so far?

    Energy sector for the year. No surprise there.
    Consumer (non-cyclical). No surprise here either.

    A few others could be added, but you get the gist of it.

    We have seen this before in this type of environment.
     
  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    So, I am obviously trying to be positive in an otherwise negative environment.

    I don't proclaim to know where any of this stuff is going. I know I have had a long-term plan for many years. I have had white-knuckled moments and events where I wondered out loud about the possibilities. Many here have too.

    Through it all, the goal and the plan remained intact. There were days, weeks, months, and even years where it was not easy at times. I believe in the long-term despite the rough waves.

    If it seems the daily noise and events are circling the drain, disconnect from it and go enjoy something. In this day and age, it can seem impossible to do, but you can limit your intake to some degree.

    Think about what you can control. Your savings, contributions, your long-term plans, and other things. Then just go about your business. That is what will matter in the long run.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SMOKIE

    The problem with your premise and the example of the SP500 above is that until about the last 3-6 years......market noise, and "things"impacting the markets, were NOTHING like what is happening now.....with the media, with AI trading and manipulation, with the total lack of interest in fundamentals or actual business results, etc, etc, etc.

    So in my mind, it is impossible to compare what is happening now to any historical investing data.....like the SP500 list above. It is a new world in terms of investing NOISE, how that is presented, and the impact on the markets.

    Throughout the VAST MAJORITY of time in the SP500 list above.....we NEVER had "things"....especially the negative media attacks every day....like we see now. AND....most of it is garbage, BS, opinion, some attempt at manipulation, outright lying, etc, etc, etc...like nothing we have seen till recent years as investors.

    I hope you are right SMOKIE.....I prefer your view of the future.

    BUT......YES.....I remain fully invested for the long term as usual. My view of the future is tempered by my.....life expectancy. I have NO plans to exit the markets in my lifetime.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND......every day or week that we sit and watch the averages, the markets, and our accounts,......drop......is another day or week we are closer to the...... INEVITABLE RALLY...... that always follows a correction or a bear market.

    I have no idea where the bottom will be....but....I do know it will happen well before people realize it is happening. AND....there is no way I am going to miss out on the gains that will happen from the bottom on through that market rally....by being out of the markets.

    I will make a broad prediction......we are within 5-10% of the market bottom right now. Of course there are always the good old black swans. But disregarding a black swan.....I think we ony have..... at worst......about 5-10%......MORE PAIN........ to go.

    AND.....I also think that there is a good...."POSSIBILITY".....not probability....that we are near a bottom right now.

    That is my analysis of the markets odds for continued losses right now. I am willing to take those losses in order to not miss out on the longer term REWARDS.
     
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