IMO, the OpenAI hiring frenzy is a sign of panic. They are not winning the race. Elon described resource versus artificial intellect beautifully. I will paraphrase. "It requires 10x compute to effect 2x increase in intelligence. Keep in mind, that's like going from 100 IQ to 200 IQ." We're in a phase of AI where the leader board is changing with increase rapidity. Last week's winner could be next week's bankruptcy filing. The speed of change is going to increase wildly from here. Also, we're going to see companies flailing for survival. Company A will purchase more hardware than they need to keep Company B from getting it. Backroom deals. Kill or be killed. There will be no number 2, in some ways. In other ways, there will be more number 2 than anyone could have imagined. Things are already quite suss but it's going to get more greasy than a corn dog stand. Every single person in the AI race knows what's at stake.
I prefer companies to be profitable as a result of business decisions. I do get your point of the current technology advances having an effect on being able to use less employees and being more efficient. X is not even in the same stratosphere business wise as maybe MSFT, GOOG, and so on.
Some good thoughts/posts regarding companies and the competitive landscape. It is definitely an interesting time to watch. There is always the tendency to overbuild/overspend with new transformative technology or another field. These companies really have to maintain that edge and fight for every square inch of space at this point. At some point, it will become much clearer. Some companies will thrive and many of the new ones will be simply gone. Of course, this may take a number of years or maybe shorter than we think. In the end, the companies and employees will adapt to whatever the result will be. We have seen this historically over time.
I also prefer companies to be profitable based on business decisions....including not having thousands of unnecessary employees and all the associated costs. I doubt that META or MSFT or any of the others will be eliminating critical, necessary, or valuable employees. But...they will be eliminating THOUSANDS of people over the next five years. And as TomB16 notes above the speed of change in all the areas of TECH is going to significantly escalate from here as will the CONSOLIDATION as companies fail, get acquired, become irrelevant, etc, etc, etc.
Regarding all of these quotes, from a business and tech perspective, these are all spot on observations. I fully agree. If I absolutely had to bet on two consumer AI companies right now to be the ones at the top when all is said and done, I would bet on Anthropic and Google. Anthropic due to superior algorithms and Google because they know absolutely everything about us and can utilize that far better than any other company. Of course, history is littered with wrong predictions and out of left field developments that change everything on a dime. So yeah, there's that disclaimer. Now as a citizen who is living this landscape, I am very worried about the job market and what will be left for the average person. There's skilled, well paying, blue collar work, there's skilled administrative/service work, and then there's everything else that will be gobbled up by AI. I have this discussion all the time at my workplace. There will always be the poor. That's unfortunately unavoidable for various reasons, but what of the middle and upper middle class? I cannot help but think that at some point UBI is going to have to be a serious part of the discussion to prevent mass social unrest due to across the board layoffs and not enough equal or better jobs to compensate. It's all changing so fast, and I am not sure society can adapt fast enough to prevent something big and ugly. I would love to be wrong on this.
As we all know, active managers RARELY beat the s&p500, On the other hand , a ETF portfolio that has included both say VOOG and QQQ has beaten the sp500 for 9 of the last 10 years. Or an even MORE TARGETED portfolio that includes say: VOOG QQQM SMH semis MGK top 65 mega caps Has returned owww, sp500 plus 1% to 5% in my portfolio. That I have beaten 9 out of the last 10 years. 2022 sucked , I was down by more than sp500 was, 25% vs 22%. Hi Guys, I just had to say THANK YOU !!! I can't believe it , I hit yet another multi Big Milestone But i can't tell anybody I know !!! That's bad form ....... Let's just say , I. Called the wifey into the office to show her Friday ...... Thank you WXYZ And all you guys , thank you
Some interesting thoughts. I tend to think we will adapt over time to whatever may be the end result. We talk frequently about the negative side that may come from it but what if it creates new and different jobs? It is possible that it will cause friction in some areas. It could cause new development in ways we haven’t thought of yet. Anything new and transformative carries great speculation of the unknown. It can be easy to become fearful of that. It might turn out to be somewhat the opposite too. Right now I lean toward it being an event that will be adjusted and adapted to. We have been pretty good at doing that over time. I could be wrong too. It’s just too early to tell.
GREAT OldManRam. You and been part of this group for a long time and you deserve it. Keep up the good work.
The week and day that starts in about 9.5 hours. Mag 7 earnings bonanza and Powell's home stretch: What to watch this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mag-...tretch-what-to-watch-this-week-113016596.html "Taking the spotlight will be first quarter earnings results from five out of the seven "Magnificent Seven" Big Tech companies. Investors will get reports from Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) on Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL) on Thursday." YES....this week will be BIG TECH earnings week.
The current war with China reminds me of how the cold war ended. Russia was an equal foe until one day we realized Russia was in financial ruin and was never an equal. China started from a stronger position than Russia did, back in the day. China too, will end up in ruin. I don't understand why countries like Russia and China are so intent on being evil. In both cases, if they had just stayed in their lane and continued to evolve, they could have continued to gain wealth and power. They would rather hurt the US than benefit themselves; that is pure hate. Also in both cases, they challenged the lion king before they were strong enough.
Here is a nice article with some really SIGNIFICANT data regarding tthe various generations.....and....all the BS story-lines we constantly see in the DIVISIVE media. The great wealth lie: Millennials are richer than you or they think The top 10% of millennials are outperforming boomers at the same age, while the average Millennial still feels behind https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/great-wealth-lie-millennials-richer-think "For the better part of a decade, we’ve been sold a simple narrative in America. Millennials and Gen Z are broke, have it much worse, and boomers and Gen X'ers are rich, and the system is rigged. It’s a great headline. It’s also increasingly wrong." The article notes: Millennial wealth BOOMED from 3.8 trillion in 2019 to over $18 trillion by 2025, a 374% surge. (Federal Reserve data) Millennials have more wealth than boomers and Gen X did at the same age by as much as 25% more. Their wealth is in two places. Real estate . The stock market. The top 10% of millennials are outperforming the top boomers at the same age. MY COMMENT The KEY factors in this data for MILLENNIALS....home ownership and investing in the stock markets and holding long term. GEE....what else is new. When you look back the various generations are following ALL the SAME steps as prior generations as they age and are doing no worse.....and...... probably living at a higher level than past generations....in spite of the BS that the media tries to feed everyone. AND....as it has been through.....ALL HISTORY....it is up to "YOU" to take charge of your own life and take the steps necessary to do well and be successful. "YOU"...can passively sit and wait for success to happen......it will not. Or you can take charge of your life and MAKE IT HAPPEN....just like the vast majority of successful people.
To continue my little "theme" of how people view themselves and others above: HOW MUCH DO YOU NEED TO BE CONTENT More than you think https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/more-than-you-think
YES IT IS: An All-Time Bull Market https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/an-all-time-bull-market/ ....."If you start from when things turned around in March of 2009 following the Great Financial Crisis, the stock market is up nearly 17% per year.1 That’s 17 year of 17% annual returns. This bull market is a stone’s throw from quite possibly the greatest American bull market of all-time:".....
SENTIMENT POLLS......a total joke. BUT: Bulls Charge Back https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bulls-charge-back I like this little change in SENTIMENT....but we are only talking about....3 months. The extreme short term.
The continued....afraid of its own shadow....market today. S&P 500 is little changed as Iran peace talks stall, oil rises https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
A mixed market now in the big averages. NOTHING going on today. The BIG EVENT this week......the monster tech earnings to come on Wednesday and Thursday. The question about those earnings.....will they matter in the markets....after all the whining nit-pickers get done with them.
I probably am starting the day with a gain....since NVDA and PLTR are green right now. I am four green and three red in my stocks to start the day. Not too bad of a start....as the big averages continue to try to come back from the down open. the DOW and the SP500 are BASICALLY....FLAT for the day right now. Lets see how we go from here as I continue to... RIDE THE WAVE.
Just moved 1/10th of my NVDA shares in my ROTH. Hopefully it continues a nice trend for the stock lately but need to lock in a little.
