A very long article that comes to an OBVIOUS conclusion. Are prediction markets good for anything? We all know they’re casinos. It’s time to look at the data behind the froth. https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/are-prediction-markets-good-for-anything "The evidence suggests that billion-dollar prediction markets, despite both their founders calling them “truth machines”, are overwhelmingly in service of their traders (and their desire to bet on sports), not the seekers of truth." MY COMMENT The LURE of gambling and its impact on brain chemical based behavior will easily OVERWHELM and replace the traditional market system over the next 10-20 years. The average person will end up simply being a FOOL and a TOOL in the prediction markets. BUT....the above article has lots of very deep discussion and analysis...on all sides of a complex subject.
YES.....and for the past year....NO ONE CARES. Well I should say....the markets dont care. Nvidia has powered one-third of the Magnificent 7's bull market gains https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/a...-market-gains-chart-of-the-day-110000790.html
The DUMB market today. S&P 500 is little changed as oil prices decline, still heads for best monthly gain in more than 5 years https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html Right now......the SP500 slightly green....the DOW green....and...the NASDAQ RED.
These numbers are DISTORTED by Iran. But...they are what they are. first quarter GDP...not bad at.....+2%....but not good enough for the MARKET INFLUENCERS. Core inflation rate hit 3.2% in March as first-quarter growth disappointed at 2% https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/pce-inflation-rate-march-2026.html
Goodness, a pretty big line of what was liked/disliked on the stock ticker board today based on those that reported yesterday. Complete opposite directions on some of those.
IF the market can hang on today to the close....another ATH for the SP 500. Quick activate any ant-jinx, voodoo, magic, or other options to ward off the market goblins from stealing the day!!
I had a small loss today thanks to NVDA and MSFT. Not a bad day otherwise. I also got beat by the SP500 by....1.30%.
MORE on AAPL earnings. Apple revenue guidance tops estimates on booming iPhone, Mac demand https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/apple-aapl-q2-2026-earnings-report.html and Apple tops Q2 earnings estimates on strong iPhone, China sales https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...s-on-strong-iphone-china-sales-174442565.html
Yep, totally aware of the volatility, but I am a big fan of Lisa Su and what she has done. I believe in AMD, but I just historically got the beaten down underdog vibes from them as an investor. It seemed that whatever AMD was doing in the high margin space, Nvidia was doing better. I know that they are making inroads into the major datacenter market, and they have been kicking Intel's ass with CPUs for years in that arena. I am just not convinced that the recent price action is a result of that. I know @TomB16 has been singing the praises of AMD for a while now. This very well might be his vindication, but I want to see more of this play out before I make a move. I know the following article is an report on what was inevitable for a long time, but I am curious as to how this will affect things currently and if these chips from Google and Amazon can take the shine off of Nvidia's offerings: Nvidia's $4.9 trillion chip empire has a new problem: its biggest customers https://www.businessinsider.com/google-amazon-nvidia-chips-ai-tpu-trainium-customers-2026-4 I always heave my ear to the ground to get a sense of the macro changes. When you are the top dog for so long and with such a tight grip, many will be aiming to take you down. If it was just about any other company, I would be worried right now, but Nvidia has their hands in just about everything, and they are good at all of it. Gonna wait and see...
The CEO and other top management at MSFT need to learn how to positively present a GREAT EARNINGS BEAT. They always BLOW the Q&A and earnings presentation. These earnings for MSFT were very good.....there is no excuse for how the company is being treated. The AI earnings bonanza is splitting investors https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/t...bonanza-is-splitting-investors-152258508.html
I predict these markets destabilize more than they stabilize. The reason these markets have failed us is they literally breed the worst instincts in people. Nothing can be more stable than one guy breeding chickens who then sells poultry to a chef. This entire industry is built on the lie that inserting a middle man has positive merit.
AMEN.....but too many of these EGOMANIACS.....think everyone wants to hear their golden pronouncements. SHUT UP and do your job.....MORONS. No one cares what you think. Should Chief Executives Take a Public Position on Politics? https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...ke_a_public_position_on_politics_1179981.html ....."Buffett put it plainly: “I don’t want to make your lives more difficult.”"...... ......"Buffett, in Omaha, was making the same argument. A CEO who believes his personal views are important enough to broadcast under the company flag should leave the company and broadcast them — there is a world for that. But the world inside the building belongs to the people who actually do the work and the shareholders who invest in them, and the first obligation of a CEO is to protect the room he is standing in. That is not silence. It is the job."......
NO.....I am NOT going to sell in May. NEVER. Let’s Talk About ‘Sell in May’ https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/lets-talk-about-sell-in-may/ ....."This gets a ton of play in the media, as the six months starting in May are indeed the worst six consecutive months on the calendar historically. The S&P 500 has averaged only 2.1% over those six months and moved higher nearly 66% of the time......" MY COMMENT Talk about the definition of DUMB. Here we have a span of months that...."USUALLY."....provides a gain of +2.1% and moved higher 66% of the time......why would I sell. Higher is higher......a gain is a gain. Those odds....doing nothing... are HIGHLY in my favor. On top of that look at recent history:
And yet we do the typical....market FREAK OUT.....and once again throw away GREAT EARNINGS BEATS. Mostly because of the F-ing......MEDIA idiots. S&P 500 profit eyes sharpest quarterly growth in four years after Big Tech results https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-profit-eyes-sharpest-135350447.html
YES....we did. The stock market just had its best month since the pandemic rebound: Chart of the Day https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/a...demic-rebound-chart-of-the-day-100000062.html
Speaking of IDIOCY. A major shift could soon happen in the Mag 7 ....."If Nvidia doesn’t rally into or after its report on May 20 — and the stock has indeed fallen after four of its last five earnings reports — the options market says odds are Alphabet will trade as the world’s biggest company as early as May 15."..... https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/a-m...alphabets-market-cap-set-to-pass-nvidias.html MY COMMENT Four of the last five? You have got to be kidding......it would be funny...... if it did not indicate a real PROBLEM with the markets SUPPOSEDLY being based on FUNDAMENTALS. And ALL of them were HISTORIC LEVEL BEATS......numbers that represent some of the greatest earnings numbers in market history. AND EVERY earnings period....we have been seeing the same thing with many, many big cap, iconic and dominant, companies....over and over and over for at least 5 or more years now.
