The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A good point Oldmanram. A very BIG move in the markets.....(the new all time highs)..... that is being....TOTALLY....ignored in the negative MEDIA.
     
  2. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Well I have erased yesterdays loss, time to go get the rest of the CRAP my daughter accumulated in her room the last few years, accumulation of crap is one trait I did pass on to her .... poor kid ....

    Make sure nobody yanks the SELL cord while I'm gone , :)
     
  3. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    NVDA definitely looking like it will move upward after almost a year of stagnation from being crapped on.
     
  4. Dax Martinez

    Dax Martinez Member

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    How would you guys invest if you had 30k cash in hand. My current stocks right now
    Google
    Apple
    PLTR
    Tesla
    Qqq
    Nobl
    Voo
    Voog
     
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  5. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Half in VUG and half of what you see us talking about the most :)
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL...you know me and my PORTFOLIO MODEL. So.......IF IT WAS ME....I would put half in the SP500 ETF and the rest.....I would use to establish a new position in NVDA,

    AND....again you know me.....I would do the NVDA......NOW....... in spite of the current all time high.

    ONLY "YOU"....know your situation and what is RIGHT for "YOU".

    SO.....this post is.....NOT....investment advice to YOU.

    YOU...know what they say about investing advice on the internet.....BEWARE.
     
    #29366 WXYZ, May 13, 2026
    Last edited: May 13, 2026
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice BIG gain for me today in my stocks. Only two were red....PLTR and COST. Plus a good beat on the SP500 today in my stocks by....1.00%.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  10. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    When you say Mr Ahole , you mean Burry ... right ? Or am I missing another Gloom and Doom jerk-wad .....am I allowed to say that ?
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES....I mean Burry......and his PR machine.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like GOOD NEWS to me.

    TSMC says global chip market to hit $1.5 trillion by 2030 as AI drives growth

    https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/tsmc-says-global-chip-market-020630963.html

    "TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, expects the global semiconductor market to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, topping ‌its previous forecast of $1 trillion, according to its presentation materials ahead of a tech ‌symposium on Thursday."....

    Details in the article.
     
  13. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    I kind of hate analyst's that go into statistics, I mean they kind of help, maybe, but lets face it, even if all the statistics say that everything is going to be great for the rest of year ......... SOMETHING could happen. 9-11 / COVID / BOTH Our Carriers in the gulf get sunk in one day, someone bombs this or that. And just like that ALL the statistics in the world will not help the market from going down. I'm not a doom sayer, I'm a realist. I see nothing on the horizon spelling doom. As a matter of fact the other day when I took some profits in MICRON MU, I only liquidated about 1-1/2% of my holdings, actually less than the amount the stock was up that day (4 1/2%). And today It's back up to $803.55 per share. I just see good profits down the pike, some better than others, but most all are looking good. And in my book , that equals a BULL market.
     
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  14. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Ya, Gotcha....
     
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  15. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    I like what you have !! I'd probably pick my 5 favorites (IE: the ones with the best 1/5 year return) and give them $6K each ......OR...
    Just split it even between them all .....
    and I like VUG too. OR MGK pretty similar ....Below is a comparison of VUG to MGK


    VUG and MGK are both top-performing Vanguard growth ETFs with nearly identical returns, though MGK focuses more narrowly on mega-cap stocks while VUG is broader. MGK often slightly outperforms VUG due to higher concentration in tech giants, whereas VUG offers more diversification within the large-cap growth sector. [1, 2, 3]
    Performance and Key Differences
    • Performance: While both have similar 12-month and 5-year returns, MGK has shown a slight edge in performance over 5-year periods.
    • Concentration: MGK holds roughly 66-70 of the largest U.S. growth companies, while VUG is more diversified, holding over 160 stocks.
    • Technology Exposure: Both are heavy in technology, but MGK is more concentrated, with about 58% of assets in tech, compared to a slightly lower concentration in VUG.
    • Fees: VUG is slightly cheaper, with an expense ratio of 0.03% compared to MGK's 0.05%.
    • Top Holdings: Both funds hold the same top-tier tech leaders (e.g., Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft), but these represent a higher percentage of MGK's portfolio.
    PERSONALLY ..... In my own portfolio , and in ones I manage..
    I have a concentration of almost 18% of my holding's in MGK , it is by far the largest holding I have ......even beating my GOOGL weighting of 14.89%
    I manage about 10 account's and in those I have about 50 different holdings. So for me to have a have a weighting of even 10% in one stock would be high. MGK and GOOGL are by far my 2 largest holdings. Honorable mentions would be :
    QQQM ......... 9.86%
    XLK ............. 5.86%
    MICRON MU ... 5.37%
    AMAZON .... 3.48%
    SMH ........... 3.46%
    That is about 60% of my holdings ........ and a host of other smaller holdings
    But that's me ...........
    I have beat the S&P500 9 out of the last 10 years , in 2022 , I lost more than the S&P 500.......
    My returns are generally about halfway between the S&P 500 and The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
    My philosophy is kinda like a parabolic curve , with the mag 7 in the highest concentration, spreading out to the lowest concentration, ITOT , at about 0.09% , so far it has served me well.....

    I will mention my wife's account it is far simpler than mine (Mine has had 30 years of accumulation of capitol as well as Holdings)
    HER holdings are listed below
    QQQM ............. 31.82%
    MGK .............. 21.94%
    VOOG ............ 20.04%
    VOO ............... 15.51%
    VTI ................ 8.16%
    MAGS ............ 2.43%

    Annualized returns below :

    2025 RETURN .................. 19.99%
    1 year RETURN .............. 33.96%
    3 month RETURN ............. 15.48%
    2024 & 2025 RETURN ...... 25.27% annualized

    Well this has gone on WAY too long ......................
    I apologize for just rambling along ..........
    BUT REMEMBER , past performance is past performance, not a guarantee of future performance
    OW...... how did I do today. I was UP 1.33%
    Not only beating the S&P 500 BUT the NASDAQ as well
    The wife UP 0.97%
     
    #29375 oldmanram, May 14, 2026
    Last edited: May 14, 2026
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  16. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    TSM sounds like a buy to me ..... It's ONLY up 50% over the last year , while most of the other AI stocks are up 75% to 740% (MICRON)

    GOODNIGHT !!
     
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  17. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    I have never heard of MGK before. So many funds that are so close and very similar performance.
     
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  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The MEDIA is a big problem here....with the ridiculous garbage that they put out......also.....rigid, statistical bound people with ZERO vision or imagination or ability to see what is obvious...is also a big problem here.

    The Same Hidden Mistake In Every Forecasting Failure

    https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...ake_in_every_forecasting_failure_1182544.html

    ......"The problem was not simply bad data or insufficient computing power. It was deeper: treating open systems as if they were closed ones.

    We keep assuming the future behaves like a chessboard — fixed rules, known pieces, stable boundaries — when many of the systems that matter most behave more like clouds: evolving, generative, and capable of changing the game itself while we are still playing it.

    And increasingly, our media environment makes this conceptual mistake worse. We demand “the hook,” “the takeaway,” “the three-point summary” precisely when reality is becoming least compressible."......
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this little article.

    Price Pain, but No Sticker ‘Shock’ to Stocks
    Markets foresaw faster inflation.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ary/price-pain-but-no-sticker-shock-to-stocks

    ....."markets are cold-hearted, made of sterner stuff. They don’t care about individual people’s and households’ difficulties. They deal with broad trends and aggregates and, specifically, how those influence corporate earnings over the next 3 – 30 months.".....

    AND

    ......"All economic data releases are backward-looking. We sit here, halfway through May, looking at price movement in April. Markets don’t look backward. They look forward, and we think nothing in April’s CPI report tells you negative surprise looms in that window. Instead, with money supply tame, we think there is a good chance positive surprise awaits, propelling stocks up the wall of worry."
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    IGNORE the very slight bit of politics in this article (simply a mention of AOC). The real lesson is...CAPITALISM. AND...if you dont believe in CAPITALISM.....WTF.....are you doing investing in stocks or funds?

    The Zero-Sum Myth Driving Anti-Capitalism Politics
    Yes, capitalism can cause some problems. It's also the only thing that works.

    https://reason.com/2026/05/13/the-zero-sum-myth-driving-anti-capitalism-politics/

    ....."The ignorant think rich people take from poor people. As the popular YouTube channel Secular Talk puts it, "Jeff Bezos…his wealth is making a lot of people poor…because we have a finite amount of money."

    Wrong! There is not a finite amount of money. That silly idea is the essential fallacy in attacks on capitalism.

    Because capitalism is voluntary, it creates wealth.".....
     

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