The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    As has been said before, Golden TB16, I worry about this one every now and then, "especially when someone tries to sell me an annuity" HA.
    And we have all heard the sky is falling ...... Anybody sell anything Friday or Today , I didn't think so .....
    What bugs me is WHO was selling on Friday ? , WHEN was the opening salvo ?, and HOW did so much get sold so fast ??
     
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  2. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    We will be fine blake. Investors are never going to quit buying and picking stocks. The old fear story about passive/index investors ruining the market is just not going to happen.

    The thought of outsmarting the market, making moon shots, and being average is just too strong to overcome.

    This doesn’t mean that people picking stocks is a bad thing or that it can’t be done responsibly, but it keeps the market and price discovery in a constant search. Yes, sometimes it gets too carried away by a multitude of reasons.

    But us plugging away in 401’s or other plans are just another cog in the wheel. An important cog, but part of a larger process.
     
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  3. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Most likely, the big firms and leveraged funds contributed greatly.

    They are usually the culprits. They are in a different realm than the rest of us. We have patience on our side though.
     
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  4. Strathmore

    Strathmore Active Member

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    I've done some rebalancing in my portfolio after 18 months of not touching anything.
    I've sold all AMZN and COST shares(with a small gain), 50% of PLTR and 40% of NVDA shares.
    I decided to buy some other tech stocks, so my portfolio now consists of:
    NVDA
    AMD
    GOOGL
    INTC
    VRT
    PLTR
    COHR
    MU
    I'll probably add SPCX to my portfolio, but just not sure when.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NICE post.....Strathmore. It is ALWAYS good to see people put up what they are doing in their investing and in their portfolio.
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....there simply is.....NO MEANING....in the big drop last Friday. Except for.....another example of how AI PROGRAM TRADING....legal market manipulation....is able to.......BOTH...... trade the markets and create the very markets they are trading.

    Seek Perspective Instead
    Instead of searching for explanations and meaning in a rocky Friday, investors are better served taking a breath and a step back.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/seek-perspective-instead

    ....."Instead of projecting what may or may not happen, consider a basic reality of markets: Assets that deliver high long-term returns, which certainly qualifies for stocks, carry volatility in the short run. It is the price tag for those long-term returns—an unavoidable fact of life. There are times where it has a clear explanation. Sometimes, like during last April’s steep, tariff-driven correction, volatility makes sense. Other times, it doesn’t."......
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....a nice look and discussion on economic reality in this little article. BUT.....as a stock investor.....a business owner.....I really DO NOT care about ECONOMICS. It is ALL about fundamental, fundamental, fundamental....business results.

    Monthly Macro Monitor: Nothing To See Here

    https://alhambrapartners.com/monthly-macro-monitor-nothing-to-see-here/?src=news

    ....."Peter Lynch, the great Fidelity fund manager, once said that “if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 12 minutes”"......
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES......I am avoiding MOST commentary and articles on the SpaceX IPO. Not that I am against buying it.....I just dont see much value in posting about this event. EVERYONE has to do what they wish.....buy if you wish....dont buy..... if you wish.

    AND....it is NOT a one time...take it or leave it situation. After the IPO it will trade EVERY DAY in the markets......investors will have the ability to buy or sell it any time they wish.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above....i start today with five of seven stocks solidly.....RED. Only GOOGL and AMZN are GREEN.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    One of my kids has a Rivian truck. They have had a number of different EV vehicles over the past 6-8 years. I would say the Rivian is probably the best of the bunch. I am NOT a fan of the stock....but....I do believe that this new mid-size SUV will be a big hit for the company. Of course the company faces the same issues as ALL ....EV companies......CONSUMER RESISTANCE and a very small market of people that will buy one......AND....no profits.

    Rivian is betting on its R2 EV to turn the automaker into a household name like Tesla

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/rivian-r2-suv-tesla-competition.html
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND....now the SP500 has turned RED for the day. The DREADED mid morning FADE.

    I dont see much of anything meaningful....as usual....driving the markets today. Just the usual short term MEDIA BS....that now passes for financial reporting.

    As usual.....short term....we have squandered the just past amazing earnings season. BUT.....dont worry....it will all start again in about a month or so......and as usual earnings will be AMAZING. AND....we will probably squander them again.

    I suspect we will end the first six months of the year with a general market gain of about......5-7%....in the SP500. (Right now the SP500 is at a year to date of.....+7.61%). Which will put us on track to end the year with the SP500 at about......+10% to +15%. In other words an average year. AND....getting there will be.........the GOOD the BAD and the UGLY.......with the UGLY at times being.......REALLY UGLY.

    BUT....in the end...it will all work out for us long term retail investors. It usually does. How this will happen or why....I have no idea. It is ALL totally opaque......totally distorted and obstructed by the constant....NOISE.

    SO......I will as is normal for me.....be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I do like this little....derivative....story from the SpaceX IPO. it will be NICE to see these people making money.

    SpaceX IPO Set To Mint 4,000 Millionaires, Triggering a Massive South Texas Housing Boom

    https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/brownsville-texas-housing-market-spacex-ipo/

    ....."According to some estimates, the IPO will create 4,000 new millionaires among SpaceX employees, from engineers to cafeteria workers, who hold employee stock options as part of their compensation.".....
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    There is really no way you can trade this....BUT.....I see two really BIG.....BLACK SWANS...over the next (possibly) six months. Actually very POSITIVE.....black swans.

    FIRST, is the end of the Iran situation....one way or another.

    SECOND, is the end of the Ukraine war. ( I am basing this on some of the recent comments I have seen from Putin and the impact that the war is having on the Russian economy and their monetary situation.....also....the ability of Ukraine to hit more and more targets deep inside Russia with drones...plus....the current soul-sucking stalemate)

    AND...if BOTH happen before year end...there is potential for some HUGE days in the markets. Notice I said "POTENTIAL".......not....."probability".

    As long term investors...it is just a matter of time....and I am guessing no more than 6-12 months maximum...before these two events happen. All we have to do to capture any gains that happen as a result....is....sit fully invested and WAIT.

    WAITING.....for returns....the most difficult job for any investor.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    BUMMER.....I just looked. I now have EVERY stock in the RED for today. AND....a big loss so far. Not surprising considering last Wednesday, last Friday, and yesterday in the markets. We are caught up in some turmoil and churning......for now.
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    These sort of dips and flash crashes have been happening for 20 years.

    Michael Lewis touches on it in his excellent book Flash Boys.
     
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  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Looks like a close resemblance to last week, but not near as deep. Some of the same green sectors today versus the red.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice little illustration of the month of June....so far.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Probably part of the reason for the drop today......ANTICIPATION....by the short term TRADERS.....and....of course, the MEDIA.

    CPI: US inflation likely continued to heat up last month

    https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/a...ontinued-to-heat-up-last-month-182143016.html

    I really DONT CARE.....why the markets drop or even CRASH short term. I am simply stuck with it.....since I am fully invested all the time.

    As to the ILLUSTRATION in the post above. I am amazed when I look at those losses that I still have a GAIN for the year. Probably a bit over.....+5%.
     

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