The Long Term Investor

I simply cannot advise on stock purchases, my big horned friend. Please accept my apology for not engaging.


I'm going to do something infinitely more positive than pick stocks for anyone.

A few pages ago, I extended an invitation to discuss idea incubation. Where do our ideas come from? How do we find a needle in the haystack?

There are three likely possibilities of why no one engaged:

1) people don't want to share their ideas in public or perhaps not at all

2) people aren't interested in engaging with me as my ideas do not follow the thinking of the average investor

3) people don't have ideas and are simply picking stocks like race horses at the track

My take is that #3 is absolutely true for most. #2 is the case for two people. #1 could be the case for some.

I'm going to share some advice.

You're all nVidia investors. When I write that nVidia is not the future, a few of you are upset by it. One reacts so strongly, they feel the need to jump in and disagree. If you are not willing to admit to yourself that you are in this group, you do not have the temperament of an investor. You would do better to stick to index.

If you don't read and follow companies sufficiently closely to know what they've done, what they're doing, and their plans for the future, you are not an investor. You are going along with the crowd. You are selecting a horse based on the attractive color of the jockey's jersey. Again, you will do better with an index.

If you get 100% of your corporate news from the mainstream media, you are absolutely and completely misinformed. This has been established and we all seem to be in agreement. Why do we allow talking excrement to influence our investment decisions? Maybe it's time to think for ourselves.

What is the average investment horizon in this group? I can't help but notice the thread subject is, "The Long Term Investor". That means 5+ year investment horizon to me.

Why are we here, in this thread? We don't want to discuss how we come up with our ideas. We don't talk much about buys and spreads. I've seen a few people mentioning purchase specific companies. That's good. Are we just a bunch of people, hanging out by the rail, cheering for our horse? It's a lot more profitable to hang out in the paddock and observe the horses closely, than it is to stand at the finish line and see if our gut instinct was lucky today.

Let me share a little bit of my own journey.

I come from nothing. When I was 16, my oldest brother told someone that my parent's couldn't afford to feed us when my brothers and I were young. I jumped in with, "What are you talking about?" When he said, "Why do you think we ate at Aunt V's four days per week?" I knew he was right. Damn....

I never thought I would be throwing around the kind of numbers I am now. I just threw some money into a startup that hasn't even IPOed, yet. There is a 60% chance I will lose all of that money. I don't know how to feel about that.

We're all on our own journey. Every person in this thread has my very best wishes for health and success. I extend my best regards to you all.

 

4) You were an arrogant asshole to me last time we spoke, so I declined to reply out of self respect.

I suspect nobody responded due to your holier than thou attitude and tired strawman arguments. You are the only one here who thinks they have an edge over everyone else. You don't. Get over yourself.

 

You're the one who mentioned PLX a couple of pages ago. Gee, I wonder why it was never affordable. Gee, I wonder why CLX is now supported by every major vendor.

You responded severely a year ago when I mentioned nVidia didn't have a lot of headroom.

You seemed legitimately upset at my comment that future CPUs are likely to have DRAM integrated on the CPU complex.

You pretended to be a hall monitor and tried to get me to do a bunch of bibliography work in a clear attempt to be obstructive.

You've attempted to rebuff everything I've said for over a year. You've declared yourself right, despite every bit of evidence.

I've been vastly more civil to you than you deserve. I have conducted myself as a model poster.

Consider this:

Poster T: "I think horse #1 is going to win."
Poster A: "No, it won't." <-- Dick move. Parasitic to the conversation. Has zero value to anyone, including you.


Let me show you what a constructive exchange looks like:

Poster T: "I think horse #1 is going to win."
Poster A: "I think horse #2, exactly the same as the last race.." <-- Shares an idea, but does not support it. Is slightly constructive.

*** alternate ***

Poster A: "Horse #2 is going to win because I watched him take a sizeable dump and a 4 minute piss in the paddock." <-- This is a constructive idea with support. That's why I come here. Perhaps others come here for this level of exchange, as well.


Have a look at how many times I've contradicted your ideas. That's a bit unfair, as you don't seem to have any ideas. That's a bit of a shot but I legitimately have not read a single idea of yours on the forum. Even when you tell me I'm wrong, I have not pushed back. You correcting me is almost an idea.

It's possible you have shared one or more ideas and I've simply forgot. I'm an older man. My memory isn't as sharp as it used to be. Perhaps I read your idea and incorporated it into the fabric of my outlook or perhaps I did not. Certainly, I saw no need to tell you that you were right or not. If I had, that would be arrogant AF.

Perhaps you don't understand that you are under no obligation to action my ideas or even to read them. You can and probably should mind your own program that makes far greater returns than I could ever dream of.

I humbly suggest, Poster A, that you consider acting more like an adult.

 

I'll give you one thing: You have a narrative (erroneous as it is) and you stick with it.

I said it last time, and I'll say it again, you have no evidence to support any of these nonsensical claims, and I dare you to prove me wrong. Seriously.

Perhaps you have misinterpreted my humor and emojis incorrectly? That's probably it. Either way, you're just pissing in the wind at this point.

And the funniest part of this whole thing is, you are extremely opaque when it comes to your holdings. So I have an idea (first one on this board apparently): Why don't you go ahead and post your entire portfolio like W does constantly. He has nothing to hide, and neither do I.

I've posted my portfolio a while ago and discuss all my moves. You, on the other hand, just talk. You bloviate on and on about Nvidia and AMD, and you don't even own any of their damn stock.

Put up or shut up with your stories and near death experiences while you owned Tesla on other boards. Whatcha got?

We'll all be waiting.

 

Not that I am at all interested in a pissing contest, but since someone here thinks I am making shit up, it's been a while since I have posted my holdings, so in the spirit of full disclosure:

Percentages are value of overall portfolio
VOO - 10%
VUG - 16%
AAPL - 2%
AMD - 2%
GOOGL - >1%
NVDA - 68%

Many of those shares of NVDA were purchased 2020-2023, so yeah, not too bad. Still beating the pants off of VUG in a 1 year return, so still happy.

Rate of return from 2017 when I was still a noob playing with AMZN shares until now: 27.1%

And no I am not screenshotting anything or posting actual dollar amounts, since I find that trashy and in poor taste. You might have to take my word. Or not. IDGAF.

Your turn, Tom.

 

And I would be remiss if I did not thank W once again for all that he does in this thread.

I may not respond as much as I would like to you, W, but you are the single most helpful person in shaping my investing viewpoint. As you can see, it has really helped me, so thank you eternally.