Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 29th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Catalent, ScanSource 8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending Tuesday Earnings: Abercrombie & Fitch, Bank of Nova Scotia, Palo Alto Networks, H&R Block, DSW, Veeva Systems, AeroVironment 9 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices 10 a.m. Consumer confidence Wednesday Earnings: Brown-Forman, Salesforce.com, Five Below, Shoe Carnival, Bob Evans, National Bank of Greece, Chico's 8 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI 10 a.m. Pending home sales Thursday Earnings: Campbell Soup, Broadcom, Cooper Cos, Lululemon Athletica, Verifone, Lands End, Vera Bradley, Joy Global, Ciena, Smith & Wesson August vehicle sales 3:15 a.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in Beijing 8:30 a.m. Initial claims; Productivity and costs 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10 a.m. ISM manufacturing; Construction spending 12:25 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Friday 8:30 a.m. August Employment report 8:30 a.m. U.S. trade deficit 10 a.m. Factory orders 1 p.m. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker
J-Holed: Stocks Slide After "Good" Yellen, "Bad" Powell, & "Ugly" Fischer Turmoil? Yellen was hawkish but offered some dovish hope, Fischer dashed that hope, and Powell piled on... (Once again it seems VIX 14 was the target) Post-Yellen, not pretty... But Fischer was the big break... Stocks tumbled on the day... but the ubiquitous late-day panic bid sent Nasdaq green But the machines took over in the last hour - desperate to get S&P back to VWAP... And everything but small caps ended lower on the week...Worst week in 2 months for S&P As a major squeeze was unleashed into the last 30 mins... The USD Index soared - after an initial nose dive - led by Swissy and Yen weakness... But Cable seems to be the new carry trade du month... Perhaps even more notable, China's currency plunged most since Brexit... Treasury yields crashed and smashed today with the short-end majorly underperforming.. But the curve collapsed (leaving 12m Libor - 10Y Treasury inverted)... And banks rallied (on hike hopes) despite the collapse in 2s30s to Dec 2007 lows... Intraday, headline driven... Despits the surge in the USD, commodities actually ended the day flat (with silver +0.5%) - but all notably lower on the week... Finally some longer-term context for today's swings... Charts: Bloomberg h/t @BarbarianCap for title ;-)
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: The Coin Flip Market Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As summer begins to fade, and kids return to school, the focus once again turns to the annual event of Central Bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, if you only looked at the market as a gauge as to the excitement of the event, well it must have been one pretty boring after-party. The current action is aligning more closely with a normal corrective event from an extreme overbought condition. During such a “normalized” market correction, the market should pull back to the most recent support, hold that support level and turn higher if the current bullish trend is to remain intact. However, with all other indicators now pushing extreme levels, a correction from current levels could be somewhat larger than currently anticipated. As I discussed recently: “However, there is a more than reasonable chance, as I laid out at the end of July, for a deeper correction in the next 60-days. The chart below shows the potential drawdowns from current levels.” “Here is the point. It would take a correction from current levels to break 2000, which is very important support for the markets currently, to even register a 10% correction. Given the current bullish exuberance for the market, this is probably unlikely between now and the election.Therefore, even a ‘worst case’ correction currently would likely be an 8.5% drawdown back to major support. Of course, for most individuals, even such a small correction would likely feel far more damaging.“ The problem for individual investors is the “trap” currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. There will be a collision between the fantasy of asset prices and the reality of the underlying fundamentals. This will particularly be the case if the much anticipated rebound of economic growth and earnings fails to materialize. With longer-term combined sell signals currently in place and the market still processing a broadening topping pattern, the extremely high levels of “complacency” are likely misplaced. As I wrote previously: “Take a step back from the media, and Wall Street commentary, for a moment and make an honest assessment of the financial markets today. If our job is to ‘bet’ when the ‘odds’ of winning are in our favor, then exactly how ‘strong’ is the fundamental hand you are currently betting on?” In other words, over the next few days to weeks the market is at best a “coin flip” currently. However, the longer-term outcomes are heavily stacked against those betting the markets only go up from here. Here is what I will be reading this weekend. Fed / Economy Old Faithful Meets New Normal by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong Fed Turns Up Volume, Market Tunes Out by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch The Fed Needs A New Way Of Thinking by Kevin Warsh via WSJ The Great Unraveling by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge Crash Coming Despite Fed by Chris Vermeulen via TheStreet Too Late For Fed To Raise Rates by David Nelson via David Nelson, CFA Politics Of Negative Rates by Yanis Varoufakis via Project Syndicate Recent Economic Data To Confuse Fed by Robert Johnson via Morningstar 3-Tough Questions For Central Bankers by Matthew Lynn via The Telegraph Central Banks Have Broken The Market by Alexandra Scaggs via FT Dollar Weakness & Fed Expectations by Marc Chandler via Real Clear Markets Fed Is Hostage To Wall Street by James Grant via Finanz Und Wirtschaft Fed Rate Hike Would Be A Disaster by Ron Insana via CNBC Matt King: How CB’s Got It All Wrong by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge Markets The Lowest Vol In A Lifetime by Macro Man Surging Stocks But Investors Unhappy by Suzanne McGee via The Guardian These Charts Flashing A Recession by John Schoen via CNBC Millennials – Stick All Your Money In Stocks by Sean Williams via USA Today It’s Scarily Quiet In The Market by James Mackintosh via WSJ Slide In Dividend Stocks by Michael Kahn via Barron’s Long Term Sell Signal For Stocks? by Chris Ciovacco via Ciovacco Capital Technical Indicators & The Markets by Sid Verma via Bloomberg You Can’t Win With Active Management by Eric Nelson via Seeking Alpha Passive Investing Worse Than Marxism by David Keohane via FT Are Index Funds The Road To Serfdom by Matt Levine via Bloomberg Bad News From T.I.N.A. Land by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting Man Blog 5 Things To Derail Stock Market Rally by Adam Shell via USA Today 10 Charts Signal A Correction Ahead by Sue Chang via MarketWatch Just Great Reads The Hidden Risks In Corporate Balance Sheets by AP via SFGate Something Amiss With Home Sales by Aaron Layman 23 Signs Of Pundits Or Professionals by Charlie Bilello via Tumblr 5 Factors Weighing On America by Todd Buchholz via MarketWatch Healthcare Isn’t A Right by Megan McArdle via Bloomberg Looking Ahead To A Bullish Outlook via John Hussman via Hussman Funds The Dollar & Productivity Puzzle by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners Earnings Recession Finally Bottomed? by IronMan via Political Calculations Corporate Profits Head For Big Bounce by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times Why Markets Obsess Over Yields by The Economist Euphoria Is Already Upon Us by Eric Parnell, CFA via Seeking Alpha NYT’s Dire Warning About Polling by Michael Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg Bubbles In Bond Land by David Stockman via Contra Corner No Complacency? by Dana Lyons via Tumblr A Generational Peak In Corporate Profits by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report “Discipline, which is but mutual trust and confidence, is the key to all success in peace and war.” ? General George S. Patton, Jr.
Next Monday is Bullish, but Tuesday is Bearish For those of you following along in the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2016 you have likely already noticed a Bull symbol on Monday August 29 and a Bear on Tuesday August 30. For those without an Almanac bullish and bearish days are based upon the percentage of time the market’s performance has been up on a specific trading day over the most recent 21-year time period. In order to be bullish the S&P 500 must have been up more than 60% of the time. If the S&P 500 fails to rise at least 40% of the time the day is considered bearish. Next week, Monday is clearly a bullish day. Over the last 21 years S&P 500 has been up 71.4% of the time, NASDAQ as well and DJIA 66.7%. S&P 500 has been up thirteen straight times on the third to last day of August with three advances exceeding 2%. But on the penultimate trading day of August, the track record is nearly exactly the opposite. S&P 500 has advanced just 23.8% of the time and its average loss is 0.48%. DJIA is only slightly better, up 28.6% of the time with an average loss of 0.43%. NASDAQ has been mixed. End-of-Quarter Portfolio Restructuring Contributes to September Volatility Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance over the same timeframe. September’s performance does improve slightly in election years, but it is still negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have been able to escape negative territory and post modest 0.2% and 0.7% average gains respectively in the last nine election year Septembers. Although the month has opened strong 13 of the last 21 years, once tans begin to fade and the new school year begins, fund managers tend to clean house as the end of the third quarter approaches, causing some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. Recent substantial declines occurred following the terrorist attacks in 2001 (Dow: -11.1%) and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (Dow: -6.0%). Solid September gains in 2010; DJIA’s 7.7%, S&P 500’s 8.8% were the best since 1939, but the month suffered nearly the same magnitude declines in 2011, confirming that September can be a volatile month. S&P low volatility streak extends to 33 trading days At the close today, S&P 500 has now gone 33 trading days without exceeding +/– 1.0% on a closing basis. Going back to 1930, a streak of this duration has occurred 56 times including the current run. The longest streak was 166 trading days from March 1, 1963 until October 24, 1963. No such similar streak occurred prior to 1944. With the exception of seven past streaks, S&P 500 was quietly climbing during the extended period of low volatility and the average gain was 3.78%. However, in the month after the streak ended S&P 500 continued to advance only 50.9% of the time with an average loss of 0.14%. At 3-, 6- and 12-months after the low volatility streak ended S&P 500 was generally back on a positive trajectory with average gains steadily improving as time passed. Click here to view table full size… 61.9% chance NASDAQ weekly winning streak continues to 9 or more In its nearly 46-year history, NASDAQ has recorded just 21 previous 8-week consecutive winning streaks. The current streak which began with the week ending July 1 is still ongoing and is the 22nd such streak. The average NASDAQ gain during the previous streaks of 8 weeks or longer was 20.04% or 2.11% per week during each streak. NASDAQ’s longest streak was 15 weeks straight from December 3, 1971 until March 10, 1972. 13 of 21 (61.9%) past streaks extended to 9 or more weeks.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead! Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (8/29-9/2) <-- click there! in addition we have our monthly poll for the month of September now open for votes! Monthly SPX Poll - September 2016 Sentiment <-- click there! and lastly we have our weekly stock picking contest for this upcoming week! Stockaholics Weekly Big Board Contest for the Week of (8/29-9/2) <-- click there! in addition, we have our monthly stock picking contest for the month of September now open for picks as well! Stockaholics September 2016 Big Board Contest <-- click there! it would be awesome to see all of you regulars here at Stockaholics join in and participate on these polls & contests! EDIT: also if possible i'd also like to collect some input/feedback from the community here in regards to a brand spanking new contest that we are fixing to putting to work here soon very soon! ***TRIAL RUN: Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge for (8/26)*** <-- click there! have a great weekend Stockaholics!
ER due out in this week ahead: $CRM $SWHC $AVGO $PANW $ANF $DSW $LULU $AMBA $CTRP $CIEN $CPB $BNS $SCSC
ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.28.16 - Post Jackson Hole, Stay with Relative Strength, Trading Psychology Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
i didn't see Tim's weekly market wrap & sector watch video posted in here this week so figured i'll just do it for him lol great stuff as always @Vegastrader66 and looking forward to catching your live stream tomorrow morning!
Wow Cy > lol I got distracted yesterday Family stuff going on. Thanks man!! Really appreciate you doing that for me
is there a link to an archive of your sunday streams? i only ever get to watch your market wrap videos that you post.
^^ i'm not sure if this will embed into the post but... <iframe name="tickertv-player" style="display:block; position:relative; height:450px; width: 900px; border: none;" scrolling="no" src="http://ticker.tv/v/57c30806f72261fe2ed77d03" allowfullscreen></iframe> edit: nope... you can find it on ticker.tv .. edit #2: n/m just found the link here you go @Ken34 -> http://ticker.tv/vegastrader66/57c30806f72261fe2ed77d03 thx for taking the time to stream this morning @Vegastrader66 ... great stuff
good morning Stockaholics! everyone have a nice weekend? Frontrunning: August 29 Central Bankers Spurn Call for Radical Approach at Jackson Hole (BBG) Turkey deepens Syria offensive, at odds with U.S. (Reuters) Another red line: U.S. says clashes between Turkish forces and opposition in Syria 'unacceptable' (Reuters) Iceland Raises Alarm After Largest Volcano Starts to Rumble (BBG) On Syria, Democrats look to deflect the conversation (AP) European Stocks Fall as Fed Outlook Lifts Dollar; Oil Declines (BBG) Beneath Yuan’s Quiet, China Worries Rise (WSJ) Massive BOJ Stimulus Shock Looms, Says $2 Trillion UBS Investor (BBG) Merkel’s deputy breaks ranks over refugee policy (FT) Blackstone Unleashes Cash Hoard in Texas Shale Oil Land Grab (BBG) China wants a successful G20 but suspects West may derail agenda (Reuters) Draghi Silence Puts Numbers in Spotlight Before ECB Meeting (BBG) Demise of Direct Match Shows Bank Death-Grip on Treasury Market (BBG) German trade body cuts forecast for 2016 export growth (Reuters) Hong Kong July retail sales fall for 17th straight month (Reuters) The Frozen Concentrated Orange-Juice Market Has Virtually Disappeared (WSJ) Police Arrest Man Thought to Be China’s Jack the Ripper (NYT) European Commission says 'ball still rolling' on trade deal with U.S. after German comments (Reuters) Britain will retain access to single market and curb migration under plans considered by Theresa May (Telegraph) UK must pay for Brexit or EU is in 'deep trouble', says German minister (Guardian) Spoiler: 8/29/16 Monday's Early Movers: MYL, HLF, CHTR, TMUS, UTX, SQ, KEY 8/29/16 Monday's Early Movers: MYL, HLF, CHTR, TMUS, UTX, SQ, KEY source: cnbc.com Check out which companies are making headlines before the bell on Monday Mylan — Mylan said it would launch an EpiPen generic at a 50 percent discount to the branded product's list price. The pharmaceutical firm has been under amid the rapid price increases for the EpiPen. Herbalife — Carl Icahn said late Friday he bought 2.3 million shares of Herbalife after Bill Ackman said he was approached indirectly by Icahn to buy the billionaire's stake in Herbalife. Charter Communications — Guggenheim resumed coverage of Charter's shares with a "buy" rating and a $300 price target, saying the firm's financial growth potential remains underappreciated. "We expect: 1) strong subscriber and revenue growth as the company takes market share, 2) margin improvement as operating efficiencies are realized, and 3) incremental investor interest, particularly if the company is added to the S&P500 index, to be the key share drivers over the next 12 months," Guggenheim said in a note. Sanofi, Regeneron — The two firms jointly announced positive Phase 3 results for Praluent, a drug aimed at reducing cholesterol levels. Sanofi and Regeneron said in a statement Praulent reduced LDL cholesterol by about 50 percent during trials. T-Mobile — Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the telecom company's stock to "outperform" from "market perform" as free cash flow should see a "significant ramp-up" next year. "This — more than any other metric — will likely become a key focus for investors as we move into late 2016 and 2017," Wells said. United Technologies — United Technologies reiterated its full-year guidance in an 8-K filing released Monday. The firm sees adjusted earnings per share in a range of $6.45 to $6.60 and sales between $57 billion and $58 billion. Square — BTIG downgraded the payments firm's stock to "neutral" from "buy" and removed its $12 price target, saying it sees the stock as more "fairly valued" after rising nearly 40 percent since June 27. UnitedHealth, Humana, Aetna — A new study found that the pullback of health insurers from the Affordable Care Act marketplaces may create monopolies, according to The Wall Street Journal. KeyCorp — Piper Jaffray downgraded KeyCorp's stock to "neutral" from "overweight," citing concerns the firm may not meet Wall Street's earnings estimates for fiscal year 2017 and 2018. "Thus, we would expect the stock to have a difficult time outperforming peers as estimates continue to move lower over the next several months," Piper said.
most active discussions making the rounds pre-market at this hour are (ticker symbols are clickable!): NFLX MU SQ CZR HOG INO MYL ATI TMUS UTX CRM NE KEY TBPH TRV USD KTOS AZN EGLE PPS PDCE AA RAX MON UUP PXD futures markets as of 8:40AM eastern- quiet on the econ. front today but it gets hella busy EOW:
TWLO looking hot premarket, glad i picked it up when it hit the 21 ema at $49.88 on friday. good trade location!
#ES_F #ES_F #SPY levels to watch 2186 // 2174.50 // 2162 // 2151 #CL_F #CL_F #Crudeoil levels to watch 48.19 // 47.31 // 46.47 // 45.62
Interesting: CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday recent price adjustments from EpiPen's owner Mylan can be partially attributed to the rise of vocal social media platforms such as Twitter. "When you raise prices for drugs that are for children, it gets social media," Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street." "One of the things that have changed is Twitter. The notion of building a regime of people who are angry." Mylan announced Monday it would launch the first generic version of its life-saving EpiPen at a 50 percent discount to the branded's list price. The pharmaceutical company last week decreased the out-of-pocket costs of the auto-injector for some patients, but kept the list price at about $600. Mylan's stock was trading slightly lower at $42.81 a share Monday morning. Cramer added that diseases without a significant forum have a much harder time finding changes.
