Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of September 12th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 8:05 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart 1:00 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 1:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard 1:00 p.m. 3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 p.m. 10-Yr Note Auction Tuesday 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 1:00 p.m. 30-Yr Bond Auction 2:00 p.m. Federal budget Wednesday 8:30 a.m. Import prices Thursday 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. PPI 8:30 a.m. Empire State survey 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed 8:30 a.m. Current account 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. Business inventories Friday 8:30 a.m. CPI 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 4:00 p.m. TIC data
Bondmageddon Sparks Crude Carnage & Biggest Stock Slump In 7 Months Oops...Compared to recent lack of volatility, today was indeed a bloodbath and the week was the worst week for stocks in 7 months... Dovish Rosengren's confidently hawkish comments seemed to spark this, sending rate hike odds notably higher (and not sparking confidence in the market)... And rate hike odds are rising as macro data dumps... But blame Draghi for starting it... Before today's tumult, realized volatility had collapse to a 45 year low...Volatility has rarely been lower. We can argue about the cause but the facts are clear: S&P 500 one-month trailing realized volatility has dropped to 4.8, its lowest level since 1971. Some context for today's move - Equity market at post-Brexit cliff-edge... Stocks catching down to fundamentals? Today's moves were impressive... Dow -392 points!! *S&P 500 SINKS 2.4% IN BIGGEST SELLOFF SINCE JUNE 24, *DOW AVERAGE LOSES 392 POINTS IN BIGGEST DECLINE SINCE JUNE 24 Today's closes were very technical... The Dow closed at its 100-day moving average 18,085, biggest weekly drop since the first week of January S&P biggest weekly drop since early Feb, closing just above 100-day moving-average at 2120. Russell 2000 biggest weekly drop since Feb, closing at 50-day moving average at 1217. Nasdaq biggest drop since April, closing below its 50-day moving average at 5134. Trannies closed below 50-day moving-average at 7841. On the week it was ugly, worst week since February... The S&P closed below its 2015 highs... "Most Shorted" stocks plunged... (biggest drop since Brexit) On the day, homebuilders lost the most ground (worst day in 3 years), but this was the biggest drop in financials since Brexit.. Financials and the yield curve have begun to converge... VIX soared... Jumping most since Brexit...surging above its 200-day moving-average... Today was the 11th biggest jump in VIX in history... (h/t @Stalingrad_Poor) Notably most 'risk-parity' indices are end-of-day only, we found one fund in Canada that trades - The Horizons Global Risk Parity ETF - and today was ugly (as we expected)...Bonds & Stocks slammed on the week Total bloodbath in bondland today with the long-end getting slammed... Worst 2 days for 30Y in a year - few things to consider - major issuance demands rate-locks, Japanese reverse twist chatter contagion, ECB losing faith at long-end, and finally Congress signed the 9/11 bill today allowing families to sue Saudi Arabia who have threatened to sell their Treasuries... The entire curve is back to Brexit level highs in yields. 2s30s jumped around 12bps on the week (with a bear steepening) - the biggest weekly steepening since Jan 2013 Notably USTreasuries and Bunds tracked each other almost perfectly this week (as JGBs and Bunds managed to get back to 0% yield)... The Dollar Index ended the week lower, despite a notable rise in the last two days (led by Cable and commodity currency weakness)... Yen strengthened on the week. Dollar strength slammed into commodities with crude giving back yesterday's inventory gains and silver rolling over notably... (gold and silver closed below their 50DMAs) Today's crude retracement of yesterday's inventory drawdown... Charts: Bloomberg Bonus Chart: A gentle reminder of how well things are going in the 'economy' Bonus Bonus Chart: Still over 200 points to go in the S&P before fair value to The Fed Balance Sheet Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: Stocks year-to-date...
Market Cracks on Frothy Sentiment It’s no secret that market sentiment has been rather bullish. We are dubious of the constant chatter about all the money on the sidelines. Most of the reports of cash on the sidelines are overblown and fail to capture the fact that for every stock sale someone makes to become more “liquid” there was a buyer that used cash to make the purchase and the net effect on cash balances overall would be zero. As a percentage of total market cap, M2 money supply is lower than at any time since the 1920s —with just one exception: the top of the Internet bubble. We have been noting the complacent Equity Only Put/Call Ratio readings and highInvestors Intelligence Bullish Advisors % of late and now those numbers have begun to turn the other way as the market has begun to crack. North Korea nuclear shenanigans or Trump’s rise in the polls may be the catalyst, but the bottom line is that folks have gotten cocky about the bull market and we are now in the midst of the September/October Disaster Area and on the threshold of one of the more important Presidential Elections of our time. Sentiment indicators are contrary by nature. Extreme investor and trader negativity is most prevalent at market lows and is bullish, while excessive optimism is seen near tops when the market is running high. But it is the extreme negativity that has been more indicative of major low points and much closer in proximity on the calendar to the actual low point. As has been the case this year, high bullish readings and low put option buying have been going steady for months. To illustrate we have lined up below charts of the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite since 2006 with the weekly readings of the CBOE Equity Only Put/Call Ratio and the II’s Bullish and Bearish Advisors % as well as the difference between the Bulls and the Bears. Just as contrary bullish sentiment has begun to wane and put option buying has begun to rise, the market has suffered its biggest one-day move since July 8 and also the first 1% move since that day and it’s to the downside. With Triple Witching next week and the treacherous season upon us, caution is clearly in order at the moment.
just c&p'ing my post of the post-9/11 market stats for anyone who may had missed it on last week's thread: @Steven_Burt phew! whelp, this certainly was a doozy lol ... had to just double and triple check on my data to make sure it was 100% accurate (as you know me ... i'm pretty damn meticulous when it comes to absolute accurate market stats when i do them solo....) here's what i found in my research of the SPX performance of the week before and the week after 9/11 since 2002 (this is not as fancy looking as Stock Trader's Alamac does these, but this will do for now lol...): 2002 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX -0.46% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -4.99% 2003 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX -0.27% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX +1.73% 2004 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX +0.41% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -1.63% 2005 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX -0.29% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -1.83% 2006 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX +1.60% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -0.37% 2007 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX +2.11% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX +2.80% 2008 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX +0.27% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -3.07% 2009 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX +2.45% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -2.24% 2010 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX +1.45% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX +2.05% 2011 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX +5.35% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -6.54% 2012 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX +1.94% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -0.38% 2013 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: +1.98% WEEK AFTER 9/11: +1.30% 2014 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX -1.10% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX +1.25% 2015 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX -0.15% WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX -1.36% 2016 WEEK BEFORE 9/11: SPX ? WEEK AFTER 9/11: SPX ? TOTAL: WEEK BEFORE 9/11 = 5 weeks DOWN! and 9 weeks UP! TOTAL: WEEK AFTER 9/11 = 9 weeks DOWN! and 5 weeks UP!
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead! Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (9/12-9/16) <-- click there! in addition we have our weekly stock picking contest for this upcoming week! Stockaholics Weekly Big Board Contest for the Week of (9/5-9/9) <-- click there it would be awesome to see all of you regulars here at Stockaholics join in and participate on these polls & contests... have a great weekend everyone!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ey-s-job-hungry-say-we-re-not-to-old-for-this LOL. There's someone out there who re-learned how to act by reading the internet. From Reddit to MSNBC(??). Hey guys why don't we ever talk about the Kardashians? There's another bit in this story about older workers having to work for a boss younger than their kids. It's like a Disney TV show come to life, circa Hannah Montana. This does not really inspire confidence in Silicon Valley, that it certainly seems to be going the way of the entertainment industry. Putting their faith in teenage wunderkids.
September 9th-16th 2016 Free Market Wrap and Sector Watch The first sign that the Bears may take control
ok so i had posted up this chart on last week's thread but i feel it's worthy of a quick re-post into this week's new thread just to show the sheer magnitude of today's market selloff... i think this chart is even more dramatic since i am using the "intraday" values here and not the "closing" values as i had been using on the chart on last week's thread... today was such a large range that we even exceeded the entire trading range (on an intraday basis!!) from 7/13 thru 9/8! (41 trading days in total!) in one single day! lol total trading range from 7/13 - 9/8 = 47.60 handles (2.22%) whereas today's full trading range = 53.49 handles (2.45%) so we exceeded that and then some ... pretty ridiculous if you ask me lol
Holy cow I've been MIA for a while. I'm currently short gold and have been primarily been trading it and miners these past couple of months. The reason I've still held my NEM puts is because /GC has been coiling inside this channel for a while now so it's significant. It seems to be heading towards 1280 support now and it could be seen as early as next week. /GC Daily: SPX also broke below significant support so it's also due for a decline.
dammmmmmn lol ... where dafuq you been? lol nice to see you back in here man! you've been missed round here @Venom08
Haha yeah, I just haven't been active on any forums lately. I'll start posting more now, it's gonna get interesting these next several months.
i think its crazy how everything has over reacted on a possible rate hike scenario. at the end of the day, a measly quarter point hike once this year is still nothing, and in the end bond prices will head higher and in 6 months i can see GC over 1400. this feels just like the end of last year, everyone thought the dollar was going to soar, gold was dead and the 10 year was going over 2%, what happened once they did raise? the reverse of everyone's positioning.
i should probably be out and enjoying the last few official weeks of the summer instead of hanging out here and looking charts on the weekend lol ... i'll do it after this most likely though haha i just wanted to quickly share these 2 charts that kind of got my eye while analyzing the longer term charts of the indices ... this is looking at it on both the bearish and bullish POV lol anyway, first up the chart of the SPX ... this one really got my attention this morning ... i don't know about y'alls but this certainly looks like a broadening top formation (or megaphone pattern) here which now looks complete, no? now on the flip side here is a 100+ year chart of the DJIA- i forget whose post it was yesterday pointing out that we may be entering the next big cycle in the markets? check this out! the 17yr "negative phase" cycle technically completes this year!! with 2017 beginning the "positive phase" cycle if we're going by 2000 being the start it begs the question ... are we about to enter a face ripping rally (aka, the positive phase) for the next 17 years? take this all with a grain of salt of course, it's just a chart!! nothing more lol this was just something that had caught my eye while looking at the super long term chart of the indices and thought to share in here... hope you guys are enjoying your weekend out there!
OK, one more chart ... nasdaq 100 (NDX) here ... looks like we had ourselves an outside reversal week made new highs this week while closing below previous weekly low ... even the previous 5 week lows! wow
here's an interesting piece of tidbit i thought was worth sharing in here for those who actually believe a rate hike might be coming this month: did you all know that the 3-month moving average of jobs added right now is 232,000 jobs here's the most recent data: june jobs added +271,000 july jobs added +275,000 +546,000 jobs were added in june and july + 151,000 in august = +697,000 = +232,000 3-month average why is this so noteworthy you may ask? well the last time the FED hiked rates was back in dec. 2015 right? well did you know that the 3-month moving average of jobs added then was at +215,000 (yes, really...) here's the stats then: sept 2015: original +142,000 revised down to +137,000 oct. 2015: original +271,000 revised up to +298,000 nov. 2015: original +211,000 later revised to +280,000 total = +646,000 3-month average = +215,000 verrrrrrry interesting imho .... and here i was pretty sold that the FED would not move this month ... but now after having did that quick and simple math i have to kinda rethink it ... i mean we have the election coming up and that was a big reason for my "no" vote on our fed poll ... we'll just have to wait and see exactly what happens i guess perhaps why the markets are already reacting ... i really don't know ... but just something to keep in mind lol okay, i'm out! have a great weekend you guys!
